klamath
05-05-2014, 10:01 AM
This isn't just a random pattern: These wildfires have been getting larger and more frequent over the last three decades. A new study in Geophysical Research Letters finds that wildfires in the western United States have been growing at a rate of 90,000 acres per year between 1984 and 2011
By examining satellite data, the authors found that large wildfires were clearly increasing in 8 of 10 regions studied (save for southern California and the Great Basin). And they find that the upward trend is extremely unlikely to be due to random chance.
So what's driving this? Global warming is one likely suspect. "The really amazing thing is that we don't just see an increase in one or two regions," says lead author Philip Dennison, a geographer at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. "We're seeing it almost everywhere — in the mountain regions, in the Southwest. That tells us that something bigger is going on, and that thing appears to be climate change."
The study itself stops short of estimating how much of the increase might be caused by global warming — especially since other factors, such as forestry practices and invasive species are likely at play, too. But their finding is in line with previous research suggesting Western fire activity will become more common as temperatures rise
http://www.vox.com/2014/4/18/5627746/wildfires-in-the-west-are-getting-bigger-and-more-frequent
One of the supporting studies for climate change and this one I know for a fact is flawed.
Let us examine a it.
It is the American west. What else is common about the American west forest land? It is majority owned by the feds.
What has happened since 1984? Federal fire fighting has changed from suppression to management.
What is fire management? It is using fire for the benefit of the forests. Fires on federal land are drawn out and actually expanded by burnout operations. They play with the fire and it costs way more to manage a fire than to suppress it. They actually have plans and schedules to burn the forests.
Here is a little documentation.
On July 2, 1999, a planned 100-acre prescribed fire ignited by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) escaped control near Lewiston, California. The wildfire grew to about 2,000 acres and destroyed 23 residences before it was contained a week later by the California Department of Forestry. This "controlled" burn escaped and is now a text book example of how not to use fire under dry conditions.
A review team ultimately indicated that the BLM inadequately evaluated fire weather, fire behavior, and smoke impacts. The BLM did not light a test fire as prescribed in the burn plan and a plan of protection for houses was never discussed. Adequate protection resources were not available in case of the fire's escape. Heads rolled.
The Lowden Ranch prescribed fire has had major impacts on the federal govenment's use of prescribed fire - until Los Alamos.http://forestry.about.com/od/forestfire/ss/top_fires_na_5.htm
Reading Fire that started in Lassen Volcanic National Park in northern California
It started from lightning on July 23 and after about two weeks was only 95 acres while being managed for multiple objectives as a “fire for resource benefits”. Fire managers established a 700-acre box in which they intended to contain the fire by taking suppression action as needed to keep it from crossing the lines drawn on a map.
They were unsuccessful, and on August 6 it moved out of the park, ultimately burning 28,079 acres by the time it was contained on August 21. By August 23 the National Park Service had spent $15,875,495 observing, managing, and later suppressing the firehttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/10/25/congressmen-hold-hearing-about-lassen-national-parks-reading-fire/
The Cerro Grande Fire was a disastrous forest fire in New Mexico, United States of America, that occurred in May 2000. The fire started as a controlled burn, and became uncontrolled owing to high winds and drought conditions. Over 400 families in the town of Los Alamos, New Mexico, lost their homes in the resulting 48,000-acre (190 km˛) fire. Structures at Los Alamos National Laboratory were also destroyed or damaged, although without loss or destruction of any of the special nuclear material housed there. Amazingly, there was no loss of human life. The US General Accounting Office estimated total damages at $1 billion.
and Yellowstone fires.. the grand fire management experiment...
Before the late 1960s, fires were generally believed to be detrimental for parks and forests, and management policies were aimed at suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, as the beneficial ecological role of fire became better understood in the decades before 1988, a policy was adopted of allowing natural fires to burn under controlled conditions, which proved highly successful in reducing the area lost annually to wildfires.
In contrast, in 1988, Yellowstone was overdue for a large fire, and, in the exceptionally dry summer, the many smaller "controlled" fires combined. The fires burned discontinuously, leaping from one patch to another, leaving intervening areas untouched. Large firestorms swept through some regions, burning everything in their paths. Tens of millions of trees and countless plants were killed by the wildfires, and some regions were left looking blackened and dead.
Are these just a few isolated examples? As a former firefighter and a person that has lived through a managed burn, I can tell you it is NOT.
By examining satellite data, the authors found that large wildfires were clearly increasing in 8 of 10 regions studied (save for southern California and the Great Basin). And they find that the upward trend is extremely unlikely to be due to random chance.
So what's driving this? Global warming is one likely suspect. "The really amazing thing is that we don't just see an increase in one or two regions," says lead author Philip Dennison, a geographer at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. "We're seeing it almost everywhere — in the mountain regions, in the Southwest. That tells us that something bigger is going on, and that thing appears to be climate change."
The study itself stops short of estimating how much of the increase might be caused by global warming — especially since other factors, such as forestry practices and invasive species are likely at play, too. But their finding is in line with previous research suggesting Western fire activity will become more common as temperatures rise
http://www.vox.com/2014/4/18/5627746/wildfires-in-the-west-are-getting-bigger-and-more-frequent
One of the supporting studies for climate change and this one I know for a fact is flawed.
Let us examine a it.
It is the American west. What else is common about the American west forest land? It is majority owned by the feds.
What has happened since 1984? Federal fire fighting has changed from suppression to management.
What is fire management? It is using fire for the benefit of the forests. Fires on federal land are drawn out and actually expanded by burnout operations. They play with the fire and it costs way more to manage a fire than to suppress it. They actually have plans and schedules to burn the forests.
Here is a little documentation.
On July 2, 1999, a planned 100-acre prescribed fire ignited by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) escaped control near Lewiston, California. The wildfire grew to about 2,000 acres and destroyed 23 residences before it was contained a week later by the California Department of Forestry. This "controlled" burn escaped and is now a text book example of how not to use fire under dry conditions.
A review team ultimately indicated that the BLM inadequately evaluated fire weather, fire behavior, and smoke impacts. The BLM did not light a test fire as prescribed in the burn plan and a plan of protection for houses was never discussed. Adequate protection resources were not available in case of the fire's escape. Heads rolled.
The Lowden Ranch prescribed fire has had major impacts on the federal govenment's use of prescribed fire - until Los Alamos.http://forestry.about.com/od/forestfire/ss/top_fires_na_5.htm
Reading Fire that started in Lassen Volcanic National Park in northern California
It started from lightning on July 23 and after about two weeks was only 95 acres while being managed for multiple objectives as a “fire for resource benefits”. Fire managers established a 700-acre box in which they intended to contain the fire by taking suppression action as needed to keep it from crossing the lines drawn on a map.
They were unsuccessful, and on August 6 it moved out of the park, ultimately burning 28,079 acres by the time it was contained on August 21. By August 23 the National Park Service had spent $15,875,495 observing, managing, and later suppressing the firehttp://wildfiretoday.com/2012/10/25/congressmen-hold-hearing-about-lassen-national-parks-reading-fire/
The Cerro Grande Fire was a disastrous forest fire in New Mexico, United States of America, that occurred in May 2000. The fire started as a controlled burn, and became uncontrolled owing to high winds and drought conditions. Over 400 families in the town of Los Alamos, New Mexico, lost their homes in the resulting 48,000-acre (190 km˛) fire. Structures at Los Alamos National Laboratory were also destroyed or damaged, although without loss or destruction of any of the special nuclear material housed there. Amazingly, there was no loss of human life. The US General Accounting Office estimated total damages at $1 billion.
and Yellowstone fires.. the grand fire management experiment...
Before the late 1960s, fires were generally believed to be detrimental for parks and forests, and management policies were aimed at suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, as the beneficial ecological role of fire became better understood in the decades before 1988, a policy was adopted of allowing natural fires to burn under controlled conditions, which proved highly successful in reducing the area lost annually to wildfires.
In contrast, in 1988, Yellowstone was overdue for a large fire, and, in the exceptionally dry summer, the many smaller "controlled" fires combined. The fires burned discontinuously, leaping from one patch to another, leaving intervening areas untouched. Large firestorms swept through some regions, burning everything in their paths. Tens of millions of trees and countless plants were killed by the wildfires, and some regions were left looking blackened and dead.
Are these just a few isolated examples? As a former firefighter and a person that has lived through a managed burn, I can tell you it is NOT.