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View Full Version : Recent internal polls showing Brannon ahead of Tillis, Thom getting desperate




AdamL
05-02-2014, 10:24 PM
That narrative pretty much reflects what I heard from the other two sources. The other thing that has me doubting this runaway winner theory is the sudden switch to attacking Greg Brannon. Theam Tillis sent out a mailer accusing Brannon of being a tax cheat ó that even caused The Shih-Tzu to call BS. Theyíve followed that up with a nasty mailer about a business dispute that didnít go well for Brannon. Why do this if you truly are up 19 to 26 points on your rivals four days before the polls close?

Perhaps itís because his standing with the voters isnít really even close to that. Details of internal polling performed by campaigns in the primary ó as well as by interested third parties ó have been shared with me. Publicly-released polling shows Tillis with 46 percent and 39 percent of the vote. Private polls Iíve been briefed on show him ó at best ó with 27 percent. Publicly-released polling has shown an undecided group at anywhere from 20 to 35 percent. These internal polls have Undecided at the mid- to low-teens.

I know of two recent internal polls that show Tillis in third place behind Brannon and Harris.

http://dailyhaymaker.com/?p=7870

Looks like Tillis might not even make it to a runoff. :D

Here's the newest mailer the Tillis campaign is sending out attacking Brannon (the second one they've sent out over the past week):

http://www.news-record.com/blogs/killian_lehmert_the_inside_scoop/article_8a36c3e8-d159-11e3-8cae-001a4bcf6878.html

Mr.NoSmile
05-03-2014, 10:11 AM
So long as everyone who backs Brannon, particularly the youth, show up to the polls and cast their ballots, good news. And with Tillis attacking Brannon, it definitely shows that Tillis considers him the primary competition, since Tillis has mostly been going after Kagan.

Brett85
05-03-2014, 10:19 AM
If that's true, I don't know how the public polls could be so far off.

gnuschler
05-03-2014, 11:28 AM
I understand what you're saying, but have we seen a reliable poll? In 2012, PPP polled Texas and Indiana well, but they were wrong on both Wisconsin and Missouri. A few weeks ago, UT/Texas Tribune projected Debra Medina to get 39% ... unfortunately, she only got 19%.

RandallFan
05-03-2014, 03:25 PM
It has been said Tillis jumped 20 points in the polls while his approval stayed the same. I'd also be wary of Mark Harris getting into 2nd if the socons are the ones who disproportionately turn out. Should that happen do you think Brannon should endorse as he moves onto Burr? Of course never endorse Tillis.

TheTyke
05-03-2014, 05:33 PM
I will be VERY curious how this turns out. Because we're having the same experience in KY. VoterID calls show us pulling ahead but independent polls do not. Is it how the questions are being asked or something??

You guys vote first.... Go Brannon!!!

NewRightLibertarian
05-03-2014, 05:45 PM
For what it's worth, I remember polls having Bentivolio way down to his primary challenger in Michigan in 2012 and he ended up trouncing the competitor. I think similar trickery was done to Amash as well. I would keep fighting and shrug these negative polls off. There's a good chance they could be BS.

IndianaPolitico
05-03-2014, 09:51 PM
For what it's worth, I remember polls having Bentivolio way down to his primary challenger in Michigan in 2012 and he ended up trouncing the competitor. I think similar trickery was done to Amash as well. I would keep fighting and shrug these negative polls off. There's a good chance they could be BS.

I remember the Bentivolio situation, hopefully the same thing happens here. Brannon has the ground game, so we will have to see if he can turn his supporters out.

slacker921
05-04-2014, 07:51 AM
Harris has a massive ground game in certain counties because the evangelicals and social conservatives are being told by their church leaders to support him. Harris has the mailing list of the Southern Baptist Convention of NC at his disposal and a lot of those people will go vote for him without doing any research.

The Tillis supporters that I'm aware of have shifted over and started working on the Harris campaign. It seems the game plan is to get Harris into second (behind Tillis) and he will endorse Tillis. The level of support for Brannon, along with the Levin, Beck, Sen Mike Lee, Sen Rand Paul, etc endorsements have really thrown the Tillis and NCGOP people (who are behind Harris) off balance.



The recent polls showing Tillis ahead are pure BS..

http://i.imgur.com/Ejns3BB.jpg

devil21
05-04-2014, 02:22 PM
I sure do see a lot of Harris signs all over the place. His sign people are very active. But yeah Ive been saying all along that the polls are crap and only meant to form opinion instead of report it. Hoping Rand's appearance in Charlotte will get a lot of coverage!

Jeremy
05-04-2014, 10:54 PM
Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

TheTyke
05-04-2014, 11:19 PM
Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

Actually have to disagree here... they showed Conway up 12% over Rand at a time when just the state fair drained all campaign supplies from the whole state. At the events, like 1 in 4 people had a Rand fan... it was crazy. On the ground, it was euphorically pro-Rand everywhere. Conway was never ahead. All that said, as I recall, accuracy is rated just within the final month, and there they have been one of the more accurate ones. Guess we'll just have to find out.

GunnyFreedom
05-04-2014, 11:22 PM
Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

had

They have lost that reputation in the last 3 or so years having produced ideologically driven data that didn't track. You will note they are still touting a newspaper clipping from 2008 praising their accuracy. That's 6 years ago.

PPP had a reputation for being accurate. They no longer really do though.

devil21
05-05-2014, 01:38 AM
Internal polls mean nothing and PPP has a reputation for being accurate.

Multiple internal polls can be accurate though. Brannon and Harris internal poll numbers BOTH dispute the corporate polling firms (F U FRANK!) results. If Tillis is punching down then his internal polls show it too. This race is close. Is Tillis attacking Harris at all?

devil21
05-05-2014, 01:49 AM
FUCK YOU FRANK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If9EWDB_zK4

aclove
05-05-2014, 06:45 AM
Multiple internal polls can be accurate though. Brannon and Harris internal poll numbers BOTH dispute the corporate polling firms (F U FRANK!) results. If Tillis is punching down then his internal polls show it too. This race is close. Is Tillis attacking Harris at all?

No, and here's why. Brannon volunteers around the state have reported catching Tillis volunteers in the act of putting out Harris signs in places where Brannon signs have mysteriously disappeared. This indicates that the Tillis campaign has now gone over to Plan B: get Harris into 2nd place so that if Tillis can't get to 40%, Harris will be his opponent. Harris will then either graciously decline to ask for a runoff, or he'll be so weak (he only really has strong support in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and a couple of rural counties) that Tillis can cruise to victory without spending much more money.

William Tell
05-05-2014, 07:32 AM
We need Brannon so badly.

Mr.NoSmile
05-05-2014, 08:48 AM
We need Brannon so badly.

His backers down in NC just need to show up in droves. That and, I suppose, catch any folks on the fence and convince them why Brannon is the stronger candidate by going after Tillis' record. And with Tillis now having Romney's backing- because the oblivious just see Romney and think credible- he's got strong establishment support. Not sure why Romney's backing should mean something, but hey, the average voter doesn't look too deep into these things, unfortunately.

Brett85
05-05-2014, 11:21 AM
We need Brannon so badly.

Agreed. But if he wins the GOP nomination, I think he needs to follow Rand's example and water down some of his views and tailor his message for a general election. Because the Democrats are really going to hammer him for some of his views, such as his remark a couple of years ago that public schools should be abolished.

slacker921
05-05-2014, 11:53 AM
No, and here's why. Brannon volunteers around the state have reported catching Tillis volunteers in the act of putting out Harris signs in places where Brannon signs have mysteriously disappeared. This indicates that the Tillis campaign has now gone over to Plan B: get Harris into 2nd place so that if Tillis can't get to 40%, Harris will be his opponent. Harris will then either graciously decline to ask for a runoff, or he'll be so weak (he only really has strong support in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and a couple of rural counties) that Tillis can cruise to victory without spending much more money.

This is why Robin Hayes (ex chair of NCGOP) and a bunch of the NCGOP staffers got Harris into the race and are working for him. He's the backup plan.

They used a Baptist preacher to peel off the evangelical "tea party" voters from Brannon. I wonder if he'll feel dirty after this election?

Southron
05-05-2014, 12:29 PM
FWIW, I early voted Saturday in Randolph County. Tillis had 0 presence there and the local Tea Party group was handing out voting guides with Brannon as the choice.

economics102
05-05-2014, 02:24 PM
This is why Robin Hayes (ex chair of NCGOP) and a bunch of the NCGOP staffers got Harris into the race and are working for him. He's the backup plan.

These people are so evil.

TaftFan
05-05-2014, 02:29 PM
FWIW, I early voted Saturday in Randolph County. Tillis had 0 presence there and the local Tea Party group was handing out voting guides with Brannon as the choice.

Are you going to help out at any polls and spread the info?

devil21
05-05-2014, 03:07 PM
No, and here's why. Brannon volunteers around the state have reported catching Tillis volunteers in the act of putting out Harris signs in places where Brannon signs have mysteriously disappeared. This indicates that the Tillis campaign has now gone over to Plan B: get Harris into 2nd place so that if Tillis can't get to 40%, Harris will be his opponent. Harris will then either graciously decline to ask for a runoff, or he'll be so weak (he only really has strong support in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and a couple of rural counties) that Tillis can cruise to victory without spending much more money.

Ah ok good info A. That would explain why I see so many Harris signs but little else in the way of show of support for Harris (not many 75yo evangelicals go out sign planting). The GOP sure is determined to keep doubling down on pissing us off with their stunts, with no regard for the future of the party.

Southron
05-05-2014, 03:46 PM
Are you going to help out at any polls and spread the info?

I wont be back in NC until Thursday or Friday. Several of my friends and family will be voting for Brannon.

At the same time, Rand Paul won with support from around the country. Just because his last name isnt Paul doesnt mean Brannon doesnt deserve national support.

Mr.NoSmile
05-05-2014, 03:59 PM
And, looking at Harris' Facebook page, hopefully comments like "Catawba county is Mark Harris country" don't ring true tomorrow.

GunnyFreedom
05-05-2014, 04:06 PM
Ah ok good info A. That would explain why I see so many Harris signs but little else in the way of show of support for Harris (not many 75yo evangelicals go out sign planting). The GOP sure is determined to keep doubling down on pissing us off with their stunts, with no regard for the future of the party.

Several Brannon signs went missing in the three precincts by me this afternoon.

It's amazing how these hypocrites are constantly accusing us of playing dirty, when it's never actually us and always actually them. These hypocrites better be awfully glad that Christ lives in me, because the temptation to return the favor but worse is pretty strong.

Second irony: One of their primary complaints against us is that we are allegedly ungodly while they are God's chosen. Yet, in their immorality they will use our morality against us, to gain worldly temporal advantage through theft and deception - safe in the knowledge that because we are more moral than they are we will not retaliate.

Considering that God is real, how do they think that is going to play out in the judgement? Do they seriously think that God will overlook theft and deception because they were doing 'God's work?' Or is their entire claim to Christ a sham from the start?

It's sad, really. Sad for the condition of their souls, and even more sad for the general public whom they work to deceive. America is due for a reckoning with God, and when the so-called "Christian Right" are called to the plate by God Himself as being primarily responsible for the fallen corrupt and sinful condition of this Nation, they will be the ONLY ones who are surprised.

Jeremy
05-05-2014, 05:06 PM
Actually have to disagree here... they showed Conway up 12% over Rand at a time when just the state fair drained all campaign supplies from the whole state. At the events, like 1 in 4 people had a Rand fan... it was crazy. On the ground, it was euphorically pro-Rand everywhere. Conway was never ahead. All that said, as I recall, accuracy is rated just within the final month, and there they have been one of the more accurate ones. Guess we'll just have to find out.
You must be mistaken because their last poll showed Rand with a 15 point lead.

Mr.NoSmile
05-05-2014, 05:13 PM
As much as I dislike her rhetoric, I wish Ann Coulter would talk up the support she gave Brannon before.

devil21
05-05-2014, 05:31 PM
Several Brannon signs went missing in the three precincts by me this afternoon.

It's amazing how these hypocrites are constantly accusing us of playing dirty, when it's never actually us and always actually them. These hypocrites better be awfully glad that Christ lives in me, because the temptation to return the favor but worse is pretty strong.


Sometimes I wonder if we're too principled and ethical for politics. But then I remember the alternative and my bolded RP sig quote motivates me again.

It will be an interesting day tomorrow. I hate to say it but Im kinda expecting the votes to be rigged just enough to give Tillis something like 40.3% and a "win". All these corporate polls putting Tillis in the 40-50% range, and PPP's today putting him at EXACTLY 40%, look like conditioning for this result. I hope Im wrong.....but then I remember Frank. The shenanigans never stop.

Jeremy
05-05-2014, 05:38 PM
Sometimes I wonder if we're too principled and ethical for politics. But then I remember the alternative and my bolded RP sig quote motivates me again.

It will be an interesting day tomorrow. I hate to say it but Im kinda expecting the votes to be rigged just enough to give Tillis something like 40.3% and a "win". All these corporate polls putting Tillis in the 40-50% range, and PPP's today putting him at EXACTLY 40%, look like conditioning for this result. I hope Im wrong.....but then I remember Frank. The shenanigans never stop.

Don't worry, I'm sure there are plenty of equally unprincipled people among us to balance it out. :p

Oldsouljer
05-05-2014, 07:28 PM
Really, Gunny? Didn't think there was a Tillis faction in Franklin. Brannon signs over my way remain in place. Only the Sheriff's signs are being vandalized. :D

francisco
05-05-2014, 07:37 PM
I'm starting to get keyed up and I live on the opposite coast!

What time do the polls close?

Links to local reporting tomorrow would be appreciated!

My guess and hope is that there will be a mini-surge of participation on the forum Tuesday evening.

Hopefully a harbinger for rabid enthusiasm & involvement to come

devil21
05-05-2014, 07:42 PM
I'm starting to get keyed up and I live on the opposite coast!

What time do the polls close?

7:30pm ET

eleganz
05-05-2014, 08:01 PM
I'm trying to call from home for Brannon but his page isn't working for me, anybody else getting the same problems?

GunnyFreedom
05-05-2014, 08:35 PM
Really, Gunny? Didn't think there was a Tillis faction in Franklin. Brannon signs over my way remain in place. Only the Sheriff's signs are being vandalized. :D

I don't know whose supporters are doing it, but remember that "Major Dave" lives here.

TaftFan
05-05-2014, 08:58 PM
I don't know whose supporters are doing it, but remember that "Major Dave" lives here.

Is this the same Dave?

http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/users/10498/3972/avatar92.jpg?1399273063

GunnyFreedom
05-05-2014, 09:02 PM
Is this the same Dave?

http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/users/10498/3972/avatar92.jpg?1399273063

No, "Major Dave" is actually much worse. And even more of a hypocrite, if you can believe it. He tries to tell me that my views are unwanted because I only picked up 15% in a State Senate primary, and then he goes and gets 6% in the Vice Chair race and thinks his views are still desired by the Party. Both f these Daves, however, hate me solely for my position on the marriage amendment.

This guy:

http://img2u.info/img/g30780da4.jpg

TaftFan
05-05-2014, 09:12 PM
No, "Major Dave" is actually much worse. And even more of a hypocrite, if you can believe it. He tries to tell me that my views are unwanted because I only picked up 15% in a State Senate primary, and then he goes and gets 6% in the Vice Chair race and thinks his views are still desired by the Party. Both f these Daves, however, hate me solely for my position on the marriage amendment.

This guy:

http://img2u.info/img/g30780da4.jpg

Oh ok. The guy I posted hijakked my article on RedState with Brannon truther bullshit. Goes by "ncdave."

brandon
05-05-2014, 09:16 PM
Isnt this pretty much campaigning 101? How many times have we seen underdog candidates say they are winning in some secret internal polls right before the election?

GunnyFreedom
05-05-2014, 09:19 PM
Oh ok. The guy I posted hijakked my article on RedState with Brannon truther bullshit. Goes by "ncdave."
Yeah, I know both of them very well. The guy you posted has burned a LOT of bridges this Primary cycle with his lunatic lies. A whole bunch of NC GOPers really like Brannon, and this guy shilling for Tillis has pretty much annihilated his conservative credentials. He will find himself less trusted by most of the GOP after this election. Sad to say, because before he lost his mind here he actually had potential.

The guy I posted never really had party standing in the first place outside of our home County.

GunnyFreedom
05-05-2014, 09:20 PM
Isnt this pretty much campaigning 101? How many times have we seen underdog candidates say they are winning in some secret internal polls right before the election?

Sure, except why is Tillis dumping a million+ dollars on Brannon attack ads at the last minute? That tells me that Tillis's internals are also telling him something he doesn't like.