PDA

View Full Version : Poll: Millennials Leaving Democratic Party, Less Likely to Vote in Midterms




CaseyJones
04-30-2014, 05:37 AM
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/danieldoherty/2014/04/29/poll-millennials-leaving-democratic-party-less-likely-to-vote-in-midterms-n1831022


Is it really true that young progressives are leaving the Democratic Party and joining the ranks of the GOP? In a sense, yes, according to a newly published survey conducted by the Harvard University Institute of Politics, but that rightward shift isn’t as significant as one might hope.

The Washington Examiner puts things into perspective:

It found that [the] youngest sector of the group, those 18-24, are becoming less Democratic and more Republican. In 2010, 38 percent called themselves Democrats. That has dropped to 35 percent. And those identifying as Republicans has edged up from 23 percent to 25 percent.

These statistics aren’t meaningless, of course, but are they earth-shattering? No. Far more interesting, I think, is the fact that the nation’s youngest voting bloc is politically disengaged, and unlikely to turn out in droves in 2014. From the actual survey:

Less than one-in-four (23%) young Americans under the age of 30 say that they will “definitely be voting” in the fall, a sharp decrease of 11 percentage points since November 2013 IOP polling (34%) and eight percentage points lower than seen during a similar time period prior to the 2010 midterm elections (31%: Feb. 2010). In addition, traditional Republican constituencies seem to be showing more enthusiasm than Democratic ones for participating in the upcoming midterm elections and are statistically more likely to say they will “definitely be voting.” For example, 44 percent of those who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 say they will “definitely be voting,” a statistically significant difference compared to the 35 percent of 2012 Barack Obama voters who say the same. Additionally, self-identified conservatives (32%) are 10 points more likely to vote than liberals (22%); men (28%) are 9 points more likely to vote than women (19%); and young Whites (27%) are more likely to vote than African Americans (19%) and Hispanics (19%).

So while young Americans overall are less inclined to cast ballots in 2014 for obvious reasons, Republican-leaning constituencies are very much fired up. That's significant. We’ve written extensively about how important the millennial vote can and will be in future election cycles. Thus, if millennials stay home in November, this could spell electoral doom for many incumbent Democrats, many of whom traditionally court young voters to help them win re-election.

Ronin Truth
04-30-2014, 08:28 AM
Voting is just so last millennium.