Tillis hits 50%

[Warlord]

@ppppolls (https://twitter.com/ppppolls) Apr 26 (https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/460115847059869697)
Thom Tillis pushing 50% in our NC Republican primary polling this weekend...this thing is probably over next week

[compromise]

It doesn't look like we'll win a single Senate seat this year. Even McDaniel's taken a turn for the worse: http://www.clarionledger.com/story/PoliticalLedger/2014/04/08/new-poll-cochran-up-mcdaniel-gaining/7472621/

[gnuschler]

It doesn't look like we'll win a single Senate seat this year. Even McDaniel's taken a turn for the worse

Then we had better figure out a way to ramp up our fundraising. Somebody needs to find a way to harness this fundraising energy that Rand is generating for his Presidential bid and utilize it for important down-ballot races as well.

[Brian4Liberty]

460835566418792449

[AuH20]

Is this really happening?

[Keith and stuff]

It doesn't look like we'll win a single Senate seat this year. Even McDaniel's taken a turn for the worse: http://www.clarionledger.com/story/PoliticalLedger/2014/04/08/new-poll-cochran-up-mcdaniel-gaining/7472621/

Broun is doing well in GA, right?

[Uriah]

Has Liberty For All actually put money behind anybody for US senate yet?

[TaftFan]

Broun is doing well in GA, right?

Well, he has no money for TV ads. I would say he is in third at this point by my estimation.

[TaftFan]

Has Liberty For All actually put money behind anybody for US senate yet?

No and I can confidently say they most likely won't be. A shame in my view, I think they spent something like 800,000 for Massie. That probably was overkill in his race. But it could make a big difference in a Senate race.

[Keith and stuff]

Has Liberty For All actually put money behind anybody for US senate yet?

I read that part of Liberty For All's strategy this year will be to help elect pro-liberty state reps in New Hampshire. The executive director was on Ron Paul's campaign in NH and lives in NH. I think it's also focusing on US House races and who knows, maybe NH state senate races too (hopefully).

[Keith and stuff]

In addition to the NH plan, here is the national plan as of March.

It looks to be a 12 state plan with a major focus in NH, CA, MI and TX.

http://libertythatwins.com/our-plan-for-2014/

Liberty For All Action Fund is proud to announce its first endorsements of the 2014 cycle. We have a great list of candidates and with your help we can ensure that we protect and expand the federal liberty coalition while building the bench for future races.
Priority 1: Pick Ups Carl DeMaio – CA-52 Igor Birman – CA-07 Andrew Walter – AZ-09 Stewart Mills – MN-08

Priority 2: Defenses Walter Jones – NC-03 Justin Amash – MI-03 Kerry Bentivolio – MI-11 Thomas Massie – KY-04 Mark Sanford – SC-01 Raul Labrador – ID-01

State Legislative Eric Brakey – Maine State Senate Don Huffines – Texas State Senate Jonathan Stickland – Texas State House David Simpson – Texas State House Lance Wheeler – West Virginia State Senate

[Tywysog Cymru]

It doesn't look like we'll win a single Senate seat this year. Even McDaniel's taken a turn for the worse: http://www.clarionledger.com/story/PoliticalLedger/2014/04/08/new-poll-cochran-up-mcdaniel-gaining/7472621/

On the bright side, it looks like Amash and Jones should survive primary challenges in the House.

[Mr.NoSmile]

On the bright side, it looks like Amash and Jones should survive primary challenges in the House.

I doubt there was ever any question of whether Amash would survive Tillis. Brannon, however, and his supporters have put a lot into this race. We'll see.

[Warlord]

460835566418792449

SO frustrating

[devil21]

Dunno why people pay attention to the polling. Been proven many times in the past that polling is mostly intended to form opinion, not report it. The establishment would love nothing more than for people to "give up" a week before the primary. PPP is notoriously lefty and Tillis doesn't poll well against Hagan, unlike Brannon. They'd love to see Brannon folks give up and give Hagan the election.

[Ecolibertarian]

Dunno why people pay attention to the polling. Been proven many times in the past that polling is mostly intended to form opinion, not report it.

Then the answer is to get out there and form opinion ourselves. I know that Brian4Liberty has really jumped into this with both feet. If you have Facebook/Twitter/Instagram/whatever, and you have something compelling to say, now is the time to say it.​

[johndeal]

Did this poll ever materialize? I haven't seen anything other than the tweet. They could have done a poll of 2 people and got Tillis to 50%.

[Keith and stuff]

Did this poll ever materialize? I haven't seen anything other than the tweet. They could have done a poll of 2 people and got Tillis to 50%.

Yes.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_429.pdf

[MichaelDavis]

It doesn't look like we'll win a single Senate seat this year. Even McDaniel's taken a turn for the worse: http://www.clarionledger.com/story/PoliticalLedger/2014/04/08/new-poll-cochran-up-mcdaniel-gaining/7472621/

Ben Sasse (NE) and T.W. Shannon (OK) will probably win. They have both been endorsed by FreedomWorks.

[thoughtomator]

This year is the establishment's Battle of the Bulge. It won't last long.

[devil21]

And this poll says Tillis is only at 27%. It also says Harris is in 2nd with Greg close behind in 3rd. All of these polls are worthless.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2014/pollputstillisinlead/


In the regular Civitas live-caller poll, Tillis was the choice of 27 percent of respondents. Mark Harris, a pastor from Charlotte, was picked by 16 percent; 13 percent preferred Cary physician Greg Brannon. Thirty percent answered “don’t know” and 13 percent selected “none/other/no one.”

[Brian4Liberty]

Ben Sasse (NE) and T.W. Shannon (OK) will probably win. They have both been endorsed by FreedomWorks.

T.W. Shannon is not the liberty candidate in that OK race. Randy Brogdon is.

Sasse is also a question. We shall see.

[gnuschler]

In the regular Civitas live-caller poll, Tillis was the choice of 27 percent of respondents. Mark Harris, a pastor from Charlotte, was picked by 16 percent; 13 percent preferred Cary physician Greg Brannon. Thirty percent answered “don’t know” and 13 percent selected “none/other/no one.”

Most of the "don't know" and "none" respondents probably won't vote ... if you back them out, Tillis is at 47%.

[RandallFan]

Almost all NC House Republicans and also Mike McIntyre's seat have conservatives running against establishment candidates. Not that they will all win but that turnout should be good for Brannon.

[Keith and stuff]

Almost all NC House Republicans and also Mike McIntyre's seat have conservatives running against establishment candidates. Not that they will all win but that turnout should be good for Brannon.

I'm not a big fan of most Southern style conservatives, but they are better than establishments. And you make a great point. It will help with conservative turnout, which might help people other than Tillis. That's great. Keep him below 40%.

[devil21]

Most of the "don't know" and "none" respondents probably won't vote ... if you back them out, Tillis is at 47%.

Strange polling methodology you subscribe to. That 30% is usually called "undecided voters" and they make their mind up right before they go to vote. This is why ignoring polling is so important. Elections are won over that 30% of undecideds that show up most every election. Brannon needs people at the polls on the 6th and money to advertise and door walk. Grassroots was always the key to him winning (or at least going to a run-off) and it's still true.

[Anti-Neocon]

Can we at least change the title of this thread? 46 is hardly much closer to 50 than it is 40.

Don't get discouraged. This is still very winnable with a turnout edge.

[Lucille]

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/04/thom_tillis_is_set_to_win_gop_s_senate_primary_nor th_carolina_s_establishment.single.html


But all of a sudden, Tillis has become a senator-in-waiting, the best example of how the Republican Party’s drive to the right has robbed space from Tea Party challengers. Americans for Prosperity has blanketed the state with “educational” ads intended to make this easier for him, as has American Crossroads. Tillis won them over by keeping North Carolina out of the Affordable Care Act's exchanges and Medicaid expansion. In doing so he may end the short political career of Dr. Greg Brannon, the Rand Paul candidate, and the sort of Republican who won these sorts of elections until the rest of the party figured out how to discredit them.

[NewRightLibertarian]

I wouldn't take Weigel's scribblings very seriously.

[HOLLYWOOD]

This year is the establishment's Battle of the Bulge. It won't last long.You can see it in the fundraising numbers... Sheldon Adelson and Karl Rove Fascist Machine vs. The People (Tea Party/Libertarians/Consitutionalists/Conservatives/Average taxed to death Joe

These numbers don't lie:

http://kwout.com/cutout/h/97/ux/5az_bor.jpg (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=NCS1)

Congressional Elections: North Carolina Senate Race: 2014 Cycle | OpenSecrets (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=NCS1)

[asurfaholic]

Tillis doesn't have 50% of the votes.

[MichaelDavis]

You can see it in the fundraising numbers... Sheldon Adelson and Karl Rove Fascist Machine vs. The People (Tea Party/Libertarians/Consitutionalists/Conservatives/Average taxed to death Joe

These numbers don't lie:

http://kwout.com/cutout/h/97/ux/5az_bor.jpg (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=NCS1)

Congressional Elections: North Carolina Senate Race: 2014 Cycle | OpenSecrets (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2014&id=NCS1)

Brannon's small contributions number is amazing. I don't know if I've seen anything like that since Rand Paul in 2010.