SurveyUSA NC Senate Poll - Greg Brannon in 2nd at 20%

[tsai3904]

North Carolina US Senate
April 16-22, 2014
392 likely Republican primary voters
+/-5.1%

Primary




Apr 22 (http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Flash-Poll-PDF-crosstabs-4-24-14.pdf)
Mar 31 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=aca1ce54-b251-42dd-884e-9a3531ad4944&d=0)
Mar 23 (http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/March-2014-Crosstabs.pdf)
Mar 19 (http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2014/03/20/13497508/SurveyUSA_poll.pdf)


Tillis
39%
23%
27%
28%


Brannon
20%
15%
13%
15%


Harris
15%
11%
9%
6%


Grant
2%
6%
5%
11%


Kryn
2%
2%
0%
3%


Snyder
2%
3%
5%
4%


Alexander
1%
6%
1%
7%


Bradshaw
1%
1%
2%
4%


SE/NS
19%
34%
38%
23%



40% is the cutoff needed to avoid a runoff.

[lib3rtarian]

Shit. Tillis is at 39%? That's really cutting it close.

[TheTyke]

Biting my fingernails!!! Come on NC!!

[jurgs01]

Shit. Tillis is at 39%? That's really cutting it close.

The NRA is spending a lot of $$ on Robocalls for Tillis.

If anyone hasn't cancelled their NRA membership and joined NAGR or GOA, then know your money is going to stifle liberty.

[Uriah]

That's a big jump for Tillis. 5% margin of error.

[erowe1]

What gave Tillis such a bump in the past 3 weeks?

[Brian4Liberty]

What gave Tillis such a bump in the past 3 weeks?

The establishment machine.

[wealeat]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

[tsai3904]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

I didn't notice that and that's a very good point. They did poll 3% of voters between 18-34 but that is still abnormal and puts the whole poll into question.

[Anti-Neocon]

This poll was sponsored by Civitas Institute, which is run by establishment Republicans.

Not saying there's definitely fudging involved, but I tend not to trust partisan-sponsored polling, be it PPP or Civitas.

[devil21]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

It won't matter if those under 35 don't vote though!!!! Must turn out younger people in NC that support Greg. I think Tillis' 39% is a little too "convenient" looking. Greg has been sending out emails saying he needs cash for the final push so please donate!!

[Uriah]

I tend to watch averages and trends over time when it comes to polls. Let's say no one gets the requisite 40% and Brannon and Tillis are the top two, would Brannon get more support than Tillis from the supporters of other candidates?

[William Tell]

I tend to watch averages and trends over time when it comes to polls. Let's say no one gets the requisite 40% and Brannon and Tillis are the top two, would Brannon get more support than Tillis from the supporters of other candidates?

All bets are off once it goes to a runoff, there is no telling what will happen. It just needs to happen.

[ctiger2]

They'll rig it for Tillis to win. There's just now way Brannon will be allowed in the Senate.

[devil21]

All bets are off once it goes to a runoff, there is no telling what will happen. It just needs to happen.

Yep. Tillis is just not liked very much here. He can get votes of low-info types and establishment water-carriers in the primary but in a run-off with a lower overall turnout, he's very vulnerable.

[William Tell]

They'll rig it for Tillis to win. There's just now way Brannon will be allowed in the Senate.
That's what I though when Rand ran for Senate. I don't think it is all rigged.

[devil21]

The establishment machine.

There's definitely some truth to that since I've been seeing more Tillis tv ads lately. These results are suspect though since the last PPP poll on April 6 had Tillis at 19%. 21% jump? Naaa....not buying that. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle so that would put Tillis 29% and Greg 18-19%.

[Anti-Neocon]

There's definitely some truth to that since I've been seeing more Tillis tv ads lately. These results are suspect though since the last PPP poll on April 6 had Tillis at 19%. 21% jump? Naaa....not buying that. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle so that would put Tillis 29% and Greg 18-19%.
Have you seen any Brannon ads?

[Uriah]

Ads do count for polling strength. Currently Mark Jacobs has poured money into his senate race here in Iowa. He has been in the race the shortest amount of time but is polling higher than anyone else. I guess it's good to be able to self fund.

[devil21]

Have you seen any Brannon ads?

No I have not, however I don't keep a tv watching schedule where political ads typically are run. Ive seen a few pro-Tillis ads (usually by Rove's PAC), a few anti-Tillis ads, and a few anti-Hagan ads. They're all PAC sponsored late night spots that I see. My tv isn't on right now and this is when the ads are hot and heavy.

[Hyperion]

I don't understand how a state like NC could elect an establishment guy over Brannon. What's the appeal of Tillis?

[GunnyFreedom]

The NRA is spending a lot of $$ on Robocalls for Tillis.

If anyone hasn't cancelled their NRA membership and joined NAGR or GOA, then know your money is going to stifle liberty.

I wish I could burn my NRA lifetime member card all over again.

[GunnyFreedom]

I don't understand how a state like NC could elect an establishment guy over Brannon. What's the appeal of Tillis?

deceit. Karl Rove is laser focused here and has been since 2012. He wants to claim victory for turning NC red again. So the whole State is flooded with lies right now.

[GunnyFreedom]

This poll was sponsored by Civitas Institute, which is run by establishment Republicans.

Not saying there's definitely fudging involved, but I tend not to trust partisan-sponsored polling, be it PPP or Civitas.

Good call!

[Oldsouljer]

That poll included ZERO voters under the age of 35. In the last one, 14% of the poll was under age 35.

Not saying it isn't accurate, it is just hard to take it seriously when our of 392 people there were none under the age of 35. Lack credibility.

Not sure about that. I didn't know that young voters were particularly known for participation in Primaries.

[Oldsouljer]

I wish I could burn my NRA lifetime member card all over again.

I hear ya. Stopped mine years ago when they could have stopped some key Supreme Court nominations and sat on their butts instead. Its Gunowners of America for me hereafter.

[johndeal]

What happened to Grant and Alexander? I was hoping Grant would stay around 10-12% and Alexander and Harris as well. I didn't think Grant did that poorly in the debate I watched.

[wealeat]

It is a survey of 392 people that is supposed to represent an electorate. You can't tell me that no one under the age of 35 is going to vote in the primary. I'm under 30 and have voted in 4 different GOP primaries.

I'm saying that the poll lacks credibility. It is supposed to be scientific. Their previous polls were showing around a 10-15% portion under 35, that seems about right. This one had 0%.

It is fishy. That's all.

[Voluntarist]

xxxxx

[tsai3904]

460115847059869697

[Ecolibertarian]

460115847059869697

Ugh, that had better be a typo.

[RandallFan]

Did PPP have Broun leading by double digits? I dont know how accurate.

[Mr.NoSmile]

Ugh, that had better be a typo.

How convenient.

[devil21]

deceit. Karl Rove is laser focused here and has been since 2012. He wants to claim victory for turning NC red again. So the whole State is flooded with lies right now.

Ah yes, the political "genius" that is Karl Rove. Fly around to liberal strongholds like NYC, meet with unconservative neocons that made a ton of money off Halliburton stock during the Iraq War and QE, get them to donate their spoils of war to SuperPACs that pay for unlimited ads against opponents. "Genius" it is not. Buying elections and corruption it is.

[Brian4Liberty]

Just a couple of weeks ago. There is no way for the polls to swing this much without manipulation.


Raleigh, N.C. – Four weeks out from primary day, the Republican race for Senate in North Carolina continues to look like it's headed for a runoff. Thom Tillis leads the GOP field with 18% to 15% for Greg Brannon, 11% for Mark Harris, 7% for Heather Grant, 6% for Ted Alexander, 5% for Alex Bradshaw, 2% for Jim Snyder, and 1% for Edward Kryn. 34% of voters remain undecided and Tillis will probably have to win most of them in order to get to the 40% mark needed to avoid a runoff.

Tillis' small lead comes in spite of having far greater name recognition than the rest of the Republican field. 60% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion compared to 31% for Brannon and 30% for Harris, the other serious Republican contenders at this point. Tillis and Harris have both seen their support increase 4 points from a month ago, while Brannon has gained just one point.

“The Republican primary race is still pretty wide open with less than a month to go until the election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Thom Tillis just hasn’t been able to break away from the pack.”

The general election story is the same as it's been for six months now- Kay Hagan has negative approval numbers and finds herself within the margin of error against all of her potential Republican opponents. 41% of voters approve of the job Hagan's doing to 48% who disapprove, pretty much what we've found ever since ads started attacking her over Obamacare in October.

She trails most of her Republicans opponents by small margins- it's 44/40 against Mark Harris, 43/39 against Heather Grant, 42/40 against Greg Brannon, 41/40 against Edward Kryn, 42/41 against Alex Bradshaw, and 43/42 against Ted Alexander. Hagan does tie Jim Snyder at 41, and the one Republican who she actually leads is her most likely opponent- she has a slim 43/41 edge over Thom Tillis. In Tillis' case being well known is not necessarily a positive thing- his time at the helm of an unpopular legislature has left him with a 20/39 favorability rating.
...
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/north-carolina-senate-race-remains-a-toss-up.html

[Brian4Liberty]

460953298342658049

[TaftFan]

Just a couple of weeks ago. There is no way for the polls to swing this much without manipulation.

Although, TV ads have been up and the NRA jumped in with all blasting. But I doubt Tillis is anywhere close to 50%. I also think his support is soft. He can't count on people to show up.

[Brian4Liberty]

Although, TV ads have been up and the NRA jumped in with all blasting. But I doubt Tillis is anywhere close to 50%. I also think his support is soft. He can't count on people to show up.

I gave up my NRA membership years ago. They reinforce that decision all the time.

460982046609784832

[slacker921]

I wonder how many of those Tillis voters know that he raised a bunch of campaign money from DEMOCRATS and even gave away seats on the UNC Board of Governors (http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/07/26/3061081/tillis-pushed-several-major-political.html) as payback for their campaign contributions?


And here's another example (http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/obama_supporter_jim_rogers_hosts_fundraiser_for_sp eaker_tillis) of how the "Conservative" Thom Tillis went on bended knee to his Progressive buddies for campaign funds... so he could go primary some real Conservatives. Isn't it interesting that Tillis would go begging for money from a big Obama donor and then turn around and pretend that he's against Obamacare? Does he have any principles at all?

[Brian4Liberty]

I wonder how many of those Tillis voters know that he raised a bunch of campaign money from DEMOCRATS and even gave away seats on the UNC Board of Governors (http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/07/26/3061081/tillis-pushed-several-major-political.html) as payback for their campaign contributions?


And here's another example (http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/obama_supporter_jim_rogers_hosts_fundraiser_for_sp eaker_tillis) of how the "Conservative" Thom Tillis went on bended knee to his Progressive buddies for campaign funds... so he could go primary some real Conservatives. Isn't it interesting that Tillis would go begging for money from a big Obama donor and then turn around and pretend that he's against Obamacare? Does he have any principles at all?

Tweet worthy...

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