jgmaynard
11-30-2007, 10:59 PM
OK, I posted this on a thread on grassroots that is quickly getting buried, but I put a lot of work into it, used a lot of real numbers, etc. and I think it provides an interesting look at where we are currently in NH. Tell me what you think:
NH is NOT your normal primary state by any strech of the imagination. For one thing, we will have over 40 candidates to choose from for President this year. Independents outnumber both parties by far and can vote in either primary. I've been involved in politics here for years.
The last contested Presidential primary in both parties was 2000. About 400,000 people voted out out what was then a population of around 1.2 million people (33% turnout).
Let's look at the actual results from 2000:
McCain, John R 115,606 48.53%
Bush, George W. R 72,330 30.36%
Forbes, "Steve" R 30,166 12.66%
Keyes, Alan Lee R 15,179 6.37%
Bauer, Gary R 1,640 0.69%
Hatch, Orrin G. R 163 0.07%
and a bunch scattered beneath that.
So that means that about 238,000 people voted in the 2000 Republican primary. Now, McCain won with 48% of the vote that time - that is simply not going to be needed or possible this time. The crowd is too evenly divided this time - Mitt, Ghouli and McCain are all formidable players here. I think that 30% should be able to take the primary this year (maybe 25, but let's say 30 to be safe).
With the rise in NH's population since 2000, let's say there will be 250,000 total R votes this time around. 30% of that is about 75k votes.
NH has a population of 1.3 million and is about 1/3 Republicans (429k) - Latest polls say we have 8% of R's now. That 429,000 * 0.08 = 34,300 potential R votes for Ron.
Independents make up 44% of NH or about 570k people. According to polls I've read, about 1/3 of I's are planning to vote in the R primary (that seems really low to me, but possible). That's 190,500 I voters in the R primary.
The real question is where we land in there (nearly every election in NH is decided by independents). IF the poll that said that we are getting 27% among I voters voting in the R primary is true (and that would not surprise me in the least), than that is about 51,500 I votes for Ron.
34,300 + 51,500 = 85,800 or a likely win with 34% of 250k R votes cast. That is assuming we get a 100% turnout.
That won't happen. But the notion is there. We are within reach of victory. Even if the polls that we believe are biased against us and/or out of date in many cases are right, and even if we don't grow at all in the next 5-6 weeks, we could still theoretically win NH if we got 100% turnout.
Gratz. Take a breath. :D
Now, about 400,000 people turned out to vote in 2000 out of 1.2M people at the time. That's a 33% turnout. We can likely expect our opponents to get a turnout of about that amount.
Even if we get a 66% turnout (high, but achievable), that's over 57,000 votes. That would likely not be enough for a win in NH, but it would get is second or third place with about 19%. Even that is enough to shake this raceup and propel Ron into top-tier status going into Nevada and Michigan - two states where his support is strongest. The idea that "He's can't win" would collapse overnight. Similar results or better in NV and MI and we are cruising into Super Tuesday flying high.
The only advantages I gave us in that analysis were:
That we get 27% of the vote of I's voting in the R primary and no one else gets a huge plurality of those votes (and not only does that sound possible to me, it sounds about right, or even better for us).
That we get twice the turnout of the other candidates. Romney will be paying for buses. We are going to have to start discussing QUICKLY how to get people out - especially college students. But it can be done and we have the best candidate to make it happen.
That gives the MSM and pollsters all the other advantages and uses their own numbers.
The ring is within reach all ready. All we have to do is to reach out a little bit more...
JM
NH is NOT your normal primary state by any strech of the imagination. For one thing, we will have over 40 candidates to choose from for President this year. Independents outnumber both parties by far and can vote in either primary. I've been involved in politics here for years.
The last contested Presidential primary in both parties was 2000. About 400,000 people voted out out what was then a population of around 1.2 million people (33% turnout).
Let's look at the actual results from 2000:
McCain, John R 115,606 48.53%
Bush, George W. R 72,330 30.36%
Forbes, "Steve" R 30,166 12.66%
Keyes, Alan Lee R 15,179 6.37%
Bauer, Gary R 1,640 0.69%
Hatch, Orrin G. R 163 0.07%
and a bunch scattered beneath that.
So that means that about 238,000 people voted in the 2000 Republican primary. Now, McCain won with 48% of the vote that time - that is simply not going to be needed or possible this time. The crowd is too evenly divided this time - Mitt, Ghouli and McCain are all formidable players here. I think that 30% should be able to take the primary this year (maybe 25, but let's say 30 to be safe).
With the rise in NH's population since 2000, let's say there will be 250,000 total R votes this time around. 30% of that is about 75k votes.
NH has a population of 1.3 million and is about 1/3 Republicans (429k) - Latest polls say we have 8% of R's now. That 429,000 * 0.08 = 34,300 potential R votes for Ron.
Independents make up 44% of NH or about 570k people. According to polls I've read, about 1/3 of I's are planning to vote in the R primary (that seems really low to me, but possible). That's 190,500 I voters in the R primary.
The real question is where we land in there (nearly every election in NH is decided by independents). IF the poll that said that we are getting 27% among I voters voting in the R primary is true (and that would not surprise me in the least), than that is about 51,500 I votes for Ron.
34,300 + 51,500 = 85,800 or a likely win with 34% of 250k R votes cast. That is assuming we get a 100% turnout.
That won't happen. But the notion is there. We are within reach of victory. Even if the polls that we believe are biased against us and/or out of date in many cases are right, and even if we don't grow at all in the next 5-6 weeks, we could still theoretically win NH if we got 100% turnout.
Gratz. Take a breath. :D
Now, about 400,000 people turned out to vote in 2000 out of 1.2M people at the time. That's a 33% turnout. We can likely expect our opponents to get a turnout of about that amount.
Even if we get a 66% turnout (high, but achievable), that's over 57,000 votes. That would likely not be enough for a win in NH, but it would get is second or third place with about 19%. Even that is enough to shake this raceup and propel Ron into top-tier status going into Nevada and Michigan - two states where his support is strongest. The idea that "He's can't win" would collapse overnight. Similar results or better in NV and MI and we are cruising into Super Tuesday flying high.
The only advantages I gave us in that analysis were:
That we get 27% of the vote of I's voting in the R primary and no one else gets a huge plurality of those votes (and not only does that sound possible to me, it sounds about right, or even better for us).
That we get twice the turnout of the other candidates. Romney will be paying for buses. We are going to have to start discussing QUICKLY how to get people out - especially college students. But it can be done and we have the best candidate to make it happen.
That gives the MSM and pollsters all the other advantages and uses their own numbers.
The ring is within reach all ready. All we have to do is to reach out a little bit more...
JM