Nate Silver: GOP has 60% chance to retake Senate

[MichaelDavis]

"Statistics guru Nate Silver, who has earned a reputation in recent years for uncannily accurate election forecasts, sees the Republican Party poised to win big this fall: He gives the GOP a 60 percent chance of retaking the Senate


In an appearance on ABC’s "This Week," the former New York Times blogger predicted that Republicans will likely pick up the six seats they need to regain control of the chamber and, he said, there’s a 30 percent chance the party could win even more seats — as many as 10 or 11.


He didn’t, however, like Scott Brown’s chances in his newly adopted state of New Hampshire, giving the former Massachusetts senator a 1 in 4 chance of unseating the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.


Mr. Silver, with ESPN, has launched his own statistics website, fivethirtyeight.com"

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/23/silver-gop-has-60-chance-retake-senate/#ixzz2woHXV0B9

[gwax23]

What about the house?

[muh_roads]

Who gives a shit. They're all douche-bags.

[Lucille]

He's finally up and running again? He's the only election analyst worth a damn.

Full analysis:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/

[angelatc]

What about the house?

I have not seen anything that indicates that the Dems will not lose seats in the House, either.

I wish I was more excited about that, but .... the fact that Rand is running for both seats means to me that he recognizes there if a very good chance he will not win his first presidential primary. (Reagan lost at least 2 before he won.)

That means that there is a really big chance that the 2016 election will give the GOP their trifecta again, with a Jeb Bush win, which (as proved by GWB) is just a nightmare for us because all the things that the party hates now suddenly will become absolutely essential for the health and security of the country.

[69360]

What about the house?

It's a given GOP will hold the house.

Rural districts go 75% GOP. So unless there is some serious gerrymandering the GOP can hold the house for the foreseeable future.

[compromise]

GOP will pick up MT (Daines), MI (Land), AR (Cotton), WV (Capito), SD (Rounds) and at least one of the following: NC (Brannon/Tillis), NH (Brown), AK (Sullivan) and CO (Gardner).

[RonPaulFanInGA]

GOP will pick up MT (Daines), MI (Land), AR (Cotton), WV (Capito), SD (Rounds) and at least one of the following: NC (Brannon/Tillis), NH (Brown), AK (Sullivan) and CO (Gardner).

What about Louisiana? There have been polls showing Bill Cassidy leading Landrieu.

[angelatc]

I actually hope they don't pick up Michigan. Land is not of us - she's an establishment Republican who has spoken out in favor of Obamacare. None of her solutions are free market based in the slightest. Her idea of competition is taking away the rights of the states to dictate coverages within their borders.

She's a train wreck as far as we're concerned.

As far as I can tell, her entire platform is "I am not a Democrat." She's doing a fundraiser with Christie, if that tells you anything. She has no voting history to judge, either. She was an effective administrator when she was SoS, but that's an entirely different function.

There is nothing likeable about her as far as I can see - she seems to have no personality or identity. She's just The Candidate.

[matt0611]

Who gives a shit. They're all douche-bags.

More gridlock. I rather have the GOP control the Senate as long as Obama is in charge.

[mosquitobite]

What about Louisiana? There have been polls showing Bill Cassidy leading Landrieu.

He says:

Democrat-held seats that are toss-ups (4): Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska, Michigan

For Republicans, the path of least resistance to a Senate majority is winning West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas, and then two of the four states in this category.

Louisiana, where the Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu is running, may be the easiest opportunity. Landrieu’s fundamentals are similar in most respects to Pryor’s: Her fundraising has been fine, but otherwise she’s running against the tide in what has become a very red state, and her moderate overall voting record may be undermined by her role in passing the Affordable Care Act in 2010. The difference is that Landrieu’s most likely opponent, Rep. Bill Cassidy, has yet to pull ahead in the polls, which instead show a race that’s roughly tied.

[unknown]

Who gives a shit. They're all douche-bags.

Thats the sad part about it.

Maybe we can breathe a sigh of relief when it comes to say gun grabbing but what about all the other crap. :(

[klamath]

Gridlock is good however if what angela said happens with and lousy R getting in we are fucked again.

[angelatc]

Gridlock is good however if what angela said happens with and lousy R getting in we are fucked again.

F8cked harder. As long as the Dems are in charge, the Republicans at least pretend to be advocates for smaller government and lower taxes. Once they're elected, they forget all about that.

[MrGoose]

It's a given GOP will hold the house.

Rural districts go 75% GOP. So unless there is some serious gerrymandering the GOP can hold the house for the foreseeable future.

Republicans did do serious gerrymandering, which is why they will hold the House for at least until 2020.