Neocons counting on Cotton (AR) and Sullivan (AK)

[Anti-Neocon]

From this article (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/02/27/the-gop-already-has-a-2016-front-runner-for-vice-president.html), I got this quote from our arch-nemesis Bill Kristol.

Kristol, who agrees with the McCain-Graham foreign policy worldview, responded by saying that the national security divide inside the GOP caucus is real but evolving and there are plenty of young GOP stars who are foreign policy hawks but don’t have the baggage McCain brings to the table.

“One of the things that will happen next year, you might get a bit of a generational change, that’s when you have Rubio, Ayotte, [Arkansas Senate candidate Tom] Cotton, and [Alaska Senate candidate Dan] Sullivan emerging,” he said. "I think at that point Ayotte steps out from the McCain-Graham shadow.”
So what are WE doing to stop these 2 neocons from getting a voice in the Senate? Cotton is going to be the nominee, so the only realistic option is re-electing Pryor. Not a great option, but sure beats having a R-neocon in the senate for 50 years! Plus we could always vote him out come 2020 or 2026. Cotton would probably be a fixture for many years beyond that.

Sarah Palin probably isn't going to run. Other than Sullivan, Treadwell is the only real contender running, and by far our best option Joe Miller, who isn't that popular. So it looks like we've gotta be all in on Miller in the primaries. If not, a third party run by Miller could ensure re-election by Begich, temporarily sparing the Senate from a R-neocon.

As we are seeing with Graham, a R-neocon, it's much more difficult to primary a R-neocon than to vote out a D-neocon. Hopefully next time around, we can organize better and get some better candidates in these Senate races.

[compromise]

Bill Kristol is a loser with barely any power these days (hardly an arch-nemesis, that title has to go to Hillary Clinton) and as usual he doesn't know what he's talking about.

Joe Miller is very unlikely to win the primary, because he has run an awful campaign so far. He has a little more of a chance now because Treadwell and Sullivan are going to compete for votes. Miller may not win the general, but Kristol is delusional if he thinks Sullivan can. Unless Palin runs, the RINO Treadwell is really the only candidate who could uproot Begich and even he's unlikely to pull that off. Begich will probably win re-election.

I doubt Pryor will win in Arkansas. If he does win there, it will have been one hell of a good year for the Democrats and so Hagan will have almost certainly won in North Carolina. There's really no conceivable way the Republicans will win NC and lose AR. Arkansas is the most likely Democratic Senate seat to go red in 2014. Senator Cotton is sadly inevitable. We need to ride the same GOP wave he's riding, just like we did in 2010 when we elected Rand and Lee while they elected Rubio and Ayotte.

I advise people not to worry about Arkansas or Alaska and focus on states where we can win such as Mississippi and North Carolina.

[gnuschler]

I advise people not to worry about Arkansas or Alaska and focus on states where we can win such as Mississippi and North Carolina.

Do you think Greg Brannon still has a legitimate shot? Who are our most legitimate candidates?

Credible Challengers
1) Chris McDaniel
2) Greg Brannon (?)
3) Randy Brogden
4) Paul Broun

Long Shots
5) Milton Wolf
6) Matt Bevin
7) Rob Maness
8) Lee Bright
9) Owen Hill

[compromise]

Do you think Greg Brannon still has a legitimate shot? Who are our most legitimate candidates?

Credible Challengers
1) Chris McDaniel
2) Greg Brannon (?)
3) Randy Brogden
4) Paul Broun

Long Shots
5) Milton Wolf
6) Matt Bevin
7) Rob Maness
8) Lee Bright
9) Owen Hill

I would say he does have a much stronger chance than these other candidates. He's run a strong campaign and generates a lot of grassroots enthusiasm.

Steve Stockman and Joe Miller are probably the two biggest long shots at the moment.

[gnuschler]

Steve Stockman and Joe Miller are probably the two biggest long shots at the moment.

I had already more or less written Stockman and Miller off ... Steve Stockman did absolutely everything wrong, and Joe Miller seems to be taking his cue from Stockman.

[TaftFan]

I had already more or less written Stockman and Miller off ... Steve Stockman did absolutely everything wrong, and Joe Miller seems to be taking his cue from Stockman.

Miller doesn't have a campaign website. He just has a "Joe's Desk" section on his news site.

I'm curious to see what the last minute flyers and fake newspapers did to hurt Cornyn.

[RandallFan]

Tom Cotton is similar to McCain. A war hero who is a neocon.

Cotton was a lawyer who gave up his job to serve. Tom Cotton also did something smart on the right by opposing amnesty.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/353386/picking-tom-cotton-robert-costa

The others don't really have anything to ride on. Ayotte has low approval ratings and flip flopped on amnesty. She could be a liablity in NH if she were VP. I dont know any candidate who would pick Ayotte.

Miller should run third party as payback. Id be happy if Tillis lost if Hagan decided to oppose amnesty.

[eduardo89]

It's pretty much a given that Cotton will be the next senator from Arkansas.

[MichaelDavis]

Who's the better candidate between Sullivan and Treadwell?

[eduardo89]

Who's the better candidate between Sullivan and Treadwell?

Does dog shit or horse shit smell better?

[MichaelDavis]

Does dog shit or horse shit smell better?

I'm not sure, but one of them probably does. The situation is there are two electable candidates in Alaska who poll equally well against the incumbent, who is below shit. Alaska is such a Republican state that if either is elected they will probably be reelected for many terms. I would rather have a Rubio type who stands with us on fiscal issues than another Murkowski who's just a Democrat-lite.

[William Tell]

Does dog shit or horse shit smell better? Horse, without a doubt.

[Krzysztof Lesiak]

I think Greg Brannnon should be top Senate choice for the Liberty movement. He's credible, popular and likely the most solid on liberty issues out of Compromise's list.

[Guitarzan]

It's pretty much a given that Cotton will be the next senator from Arkansas.


Excellent!

So, per your standards, we'll have another Constitutional Conservative ally!

[RandallFan]

I think Greg Brannnon should be top Senate choice for the Liberty movement. He's credible, popular and likely the most solid on liberty issues out of Compromise's list.

He still has a chance of at least getting into the runoff.

At least he buys more time for beating Tillis or beating Burr in 2016.

[lib3rtarian]

Club for Growth PAC Endorses Dan Sullivan For U.S. Senate

Link to Article: http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/pr/?postID=1280
(http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/pr/?postID=1280) Club for Growth President Chris Chocola: “In the Senate, Dan Sullivan will continue the fight for economic freedom and we can’t wait to see him help deliver for America the kinds of pro-growth policies he’s already delivered for Alaska.”


Washington, DC – The Club for Growth PAC today announced that it is endorsing former Alaska Attorney General and Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan for the United States Senate in Alaska. The seat is currently held by incumbent Democrat United States Senator Mark Begich:

“Dan Sullivan is a fiscal conservative with a stellar track record in Alaska and we strongly endorse him for the United States Senate.” said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola. “Dan has fought for pro-growth tax reform, taken on ObamaCare in court, and beaten back federal overreach by Obama’s EPA. In the Senate, Dan Sullivan will continue the fight for economic freedom and we can’t wait to see him help deliver for America the kinds of pro-growth policies he’s already delivered for Alaska.”

“Liberal Democrat Senator Mark Begich has been a disaster in the United States Senate. He votes for the Obama agenda nearly every chance he gets, from ObamaCare to Obama’s failed stimulus, and he works with Harry Reid to stymie pro-growth policies from passing the Senate. But just replacing Mark Begich with another Republican is not enough – the next Republican Senate Majority must consist of the right kind of Republicans – Senators like Pat Toomey, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, Mike Lee, Tom Coburn, and Rand Paul. Chris McDaniel, Ben Sasse, Tom Cotton, and now Dan Sullivan in Alaska are the next generation of candidates needed to ensure not only a Republican Senate majority, but also a fiscally conservative majority within that majority,” added Chocola.

[compromise]

Disappointed to see the Club back Cotton and Sullivan and not Brannon.

[Keith and stuff]

Disappointed to see the Club back Cotton and Sullivan and not Brannon.

Maybe the only thing Club is concerned about right now is giving Republicans control of the Senate, no matter where they stand on the issues. The NC race has a lot of people and none of them have much of a lead. Hopefully Club will come around.

[Tywysog Cymru]

I'm hoping for a Pryor victory in Arkansas, Tom Cotton has the potential to be very dangerous.

[lib3rtarian]

I'm hoping for a Pryor victory in Arkansas, Tom Cotton has the potential to be very dangerous.

Per latest polls, Cotton is ahead by 9 points.

[MichaelDavis]

I'm hoping for a Pryor victory in Arkansas, Tom Cotton has the potential to be very dangerous.

http://congress.freedomworks.org/legislators/mark-pryor
http://congress.freedomworks.org/legislators/tom-cotton

[Tywysog Cymru]

http://congress.freedomworks.org/legislators/mark-pryor
http://congress.freedomworks.org/legislators/tom-cotton

Mark Pryor has no influence on the Republican Party. Tom Cotton will fight to keep the GOP hawkish.

[Hyperion]

Tough call because when push comes to shove Pryor is likely to be hawkish as well. I'd rather not see Schumer, Feinstein in the majority.

[Bastiat's The Law]

I would say he does have a much stronger chance than these other candidates. He's run a strong campaign and generates a lot of grassroots enthusiasm.

Steve Stockman and Joe Miller are probably the two biggest long shots at the moment.

Joe Miller isn't even on the radar anymore. He burned too many bridges and the establishment is stronger than one would think in Alaska. Up hill battle.

[Bastiat's The Law]

It's pretty much a given that Cotton will be the next senator from Arkansas.

It's truly sad. He's going to be a thorn in the side of liberty for 20+ years now.

[Bastiat's The Law]

Per latest polls, Cotton is ahead by 9 points.

Some liberty-orientated Super PAC should run ads showing how Cotton wanted to support and arm Al Qaeda terrorist elements in Syria.

[MichaelDavis]

Some liberty-orientated Super PAC should run ads showing how Cotton wanted to support and arm Al Qaeda terrorist elements in Syria.

Mark Pryor is not our friend. Money would be better spent on actual liberty candidates than defending neo-"con" interventionist Mark Pryor.

[Tywysog Cymru]

Mark Pryor is not our friend. Money would be better spent on actual liberty candidates than defending neo-"con" interventionist Mark Pryor.

What about third Party?

[Bastiat's The Law]

Mark Pryor is not our friend. Money would be better spent on actual liberty candidates than defending neo-"con" interventionist Mark Pryor.

Mark Pryor is over 50 years of age and likely won't ever ever run for President. Cotton will be a fixture in Washington for 30 years and will have many shadowy figures pushing him and bankrolling him for higher office. Smoother this one in the crib liberty movement.

[MichaelDavis]

What about third Party?

Unless you know a multi-millionaire Arkansan who's willing to burn through his money, I don't think so.


Mark Pryor is over 50 years of age and likely won't ever ever run for President. Cotton will be a fixture in Washington for 30 years and will have many shadowy figures pushing him and bankrolling him for higher office. Smoother this one in the crib liberty movement.

The only elected office higher than U.S. Senator is President. If it's not Cotton, it'll be someone else. If Pryor wins re-election, he'll be a fixture of Washington for another 30 years. He's a Washington insider. He'll stay there until he dies. Cotton will probably get bored of Congress after a term or two. "There are three distinct political career tracks: risk takers, free shooters and stay putters." Pryor is a stay putter, Cotton is a risk taker. "The first category is typified by short-term office holders who are not part of any political dynasty, view their post as a steppingstone to a more powerful and prestigious position, do not want a lifelong political career, and lack patience or political connections. It’s up or out, and risk takers want to move up while they’re still young."

http://nadignewspapers.com/2013/11/22/risk-takers-have-short-political-career-tracks/

[mz10]

Maybe the only thing Club is concerned about right now is giving Republicans control of the Senate, no matter where they stand on the issues. The NC race has a lot of people and none of them have much of a lead. Hopefully Club will come around.

Club only cares about fiscal issues. They don't pay any attention to foreign policy or privacy or establishment/non-establishment. Their endorsements are based on who does well on their scorecard, which sometimes ends up being establishment neocons, and sometimes ends up being libertarians.

[Keith and stuff]

Club only cares about fiscal issues. They don't pay any attention to foreign policy or privacy or establishment/non-establishment. Their endorsements are based on who does well on their scorecard, which sometimes ends up being establishment neocons, and sometimes ends up being libertarians.

Since neocons are by definition fiscally liberal, they aren't good on fiscal issues.

[AlbertJNocke]

Since neocons are by definition fiscally liberal, they aren't good on fiscal issues.

Most are bad on fiscal issues, but some are actually pretty solid. Look at Tom Cotton's Club Scorecard.

One thing I think we will start seeing more of is domestically fiscally conservative neo-cons, it's the only way for them to stay relevant and keep their power in the GOP.

[compromise]

Condoleezza Rice has joined the midterm election fray, backing a former State Department colleague running for the U.S. Senate in Alaska. In a video sponsored by the influential conservative super PAC American Crossroads, Rice touts the credentials of Republican Dan Sullivan.

“Dan Sullivan is tireless in service for his country,” the former secretary of state says in the 32-second TV spot.



Sullivan served as Alaska’s attorney general under Govs. Sarah Palin and Sean Parnell. Prior to that, he was assistant secretary of state for economic and business affairs during part of Rice’s tenure heading the nation’s diplomatic arm.

The video—a $180,000 ad buy, according to American Crossroads—features Rice defending the GOP challenger against recent attacks against him by Put Alaska First, a PAC supporting the incumbent, Democratic Sen. Mark Begich.

One attack ad, titled “Sullivan’s Real Home,” charges the candidate with being insufficiently Alaskan for having been born and raised in Ohio and for owning a million-dollar home in a “swanky D.C. suburb” while claiming voter residency in the 49th state.

In response, Rice says Sullivan “faces political attacks because he wanted his family by his side,” adding, “Remember that serving our country required some time in our capital. Dan will be a great senator because he loves and cares for the state of Alaska and because he’s a great family man.”

Sullivan is vying with Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell for the GOP nomination. A new Rasmussen poll shows Sullivan and Begich tied in a hypothetical matchup, and Treadwell leading the incumbent by four percentage points.

Rice has campaigned for candidates in the past—most prominently for 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney—and made a TV spot for Meg Whitman in her failed 2010 run for California governor.

It is a reunion of sorts for the Stanford professor and another former Bush administration official: American Crossroads’ co-founder Karl Rove was a senior adviser to the president.



Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/03/24/condoleezza_rice_backs_sullivan_in_alaska_race_122 032.html#ixzz2xIOnkyUz
Follow us: @RCP_Articles on Twitter

[Anti-Neocon]

Since neocons are by definition fiscally liberal, they aren't good on fiscal issues.
Most of us use the term "neocon" to refer to their offense=defense and war=peace mentality for foreign affairs, and their support of an intrusive national security apparatus, all of which enrich their MIC buddies.

And yes while all of that costs a lot of money, a lot of these people with the aforementioned attitude support other ideas in line with fiscal conservatism, sometimes realizing they need to cut some spending in order to have money to feed the MIC.

So yes it is possible to have a neoconservative outlook on foreign affairs and still be somewhat "fiscally conservative" in other ways. CFG and SCF seem to be loving these "teo-cons" or whatever you'd like to call them.

[anaconda]

Do you think Greg Brannon still has a legitimate shot?

Polls from earlier this month show Brannon in a most excellent position. I hadn't really checked prior to this. Just curious: Your question seems to imply that he may not have a legitimate shot. Has something happened with Brannon's campaign more recently that I missed? Thanks.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/tillis-brannon-tied-in-north-carolina-gop-senate-primary.html

UPDATE:

This slightly more recent poll is much more unfavorable to Brannon. I don't know how two polls can differ by 13%...

http://gregbrannon.com/news/2014/3/25/the-american-spectator-profile-a-constitutionalist-in-north-carolina

UPDATE II: I wonder if the civil lawsuit judgement against Brannon is reflected in the more recent poll, and not in the first? The timing would be about right, I believe. I had been thinking the lawsuit story was a bit older, but I was wrong.

[RandallFan]

How many people even know about Brannon being ruled against? When I read MSM articles talking about Brannon Tillis race, few of them even mention it. I think a few voters will even get confused and think it was Tillis because of the staffers that got paid.

No doubt he will be attacked at some point over but not much yet. That might happen in the runoff.

PPP also seems to show Brannon and Broun much higher than other polls. Tillis doesn't even want anyone to know there is more than 1 person running for the GOP nomination.

[RandallFan]

Last year, Toomey's leadership political action committee gave $10,000 to each of three Senate Republican incumbents being challenged by tea party opponents this year: Collins, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

http://articles.mcall.com/2014-01-24/news/mc-pa-toomey-pac-donations-20140124_1_pat-toomey-gop-senate-republicans

[anaconda]

Last year, Toomey's leadership political action committee gave $10,000 to each of three Senate Republican incumbents being challenged by tea party opponents this year: Collins, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

http://articles.mcall.com/2014-01-24/news/mc-pa-toomey-pac-donations-20140124_1_pat-toomey-gop-senate-republicans

Maybe it's a slap in the face? What's ten grand going to buy a Senate candidate? Seems like a small number. Would be interesting to see some of the contributions to the challengers of incumbents and how they compare to the ten grand.