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View Full Version : Any Mathematical Projections? Will We Make It?




JAYCEE
11-30-2007, 06:53 AM
From the statistics that are posted so far, what will we have by the end of the day?

Anybody know enough about statistics to say?






.

tremendoustie
11-30-2007, 07:13 AM
From the statistics that are posted so far, what will we have by the end of the day?

Anybody know enough about statistics to say?






.

We have about 100K now, wheras on the 11th we had about 40K at this time. The 11th ended up with 230K, so if the pattern holds, we'd end up about 600K. Here's hoping we pick up steam, and beat the pattern!

CelestialRender
11-30-2007, 07:31 AM
All the signs are pointing to $500k-$700k, as far as I can tell. Hate to be a buzzkill, but it doesn't look like we're gonna hit $12m.

In good news though, we should handily pass everyone's 3rd quarter totals.

markderidder
11-30-2007, 07:38 AM
In order to get to 12 million today, we need to make a tad over 2 million in only 16 hours. That means we need to average $125,000 an hour! In the past hour we only made $15,000. Right about now things start to pick up usually. So lets try and keep our hourly donation averages around $125,000!!

I hope my calculations are correct ;)

-Mark

P.S. I still have yet to put my $100 in today, but I will soon!

Austin
11-30-2007, 07:46 AM
No, it will not happen. We would have to get around $90,000 an hour, starting at midnight. We barely had reached that after 7 hours. Our average right now stands at $12,000.

Although, more donations will start pouring in so I would predict at least $500,000. At the very very most, $1,000,000.

Johnnybags
11-30-2007, 07:48 AM
The teaparty was scheduled before this and if we get over 10 million with a month to go it is a major accomplishment, couple it with grassroots spending and its double.

ItsTime
11-30-2007, 07:49 AM
The point is every penny counts now. It will count far less than if Paul gets it on the 16th. (Im donating now and on the 16th) But the campaign needs the money NOW for Iowa and New Hampshire!

I did see 2 Ron Paul ads while watching NBC last night between 8 and 10.

Matthew Zak
11-30-2007, 07:49 AM
A million is all I expected, because of the short notice. Plus there aren't any videos out there promoting this, well if there are, not many. I think the campaign could use a boost today but Ron Paul himself said they aren't even sure how to spend the money they already have so I'm not worried.

ItsTime
11-30-2007, 07:50 AM
There will be 2.5 weeks to go not a month.



The teaparty was scheduled before this and if we get over 10 million with a month to go it is a major accomplishment, couple it with grassroots spending and its double.

Shink
11-30-2007, 08:09 AM
The main way for this to work is two-fold:

1. Be Positive

2. Be realistic

Negativity needs to be avoided today--it keeps people who may have donated from wanting to. Many who are positive today may feel more encouraged to give AND urge others to rally today.

Any perceived 'failures' are based on a lack of realism--when was this really kickstarted? 8 days ago or so? Does the 30th have a strong marketing tie-in, such as Nov. 5th's "Remember, remember" V for Vendetta tie-in or Dec. 16th's Bill of Rights/Boston Tea Party connection? Not really. Keep your hopes from bubbling beyond what's realistic.

We're doing fantastic so far, and for a little notice effort, we're going to help the campaign considerably. Chin up, feet on the ground.

AlexMerced
11-30-2007, 09:25 AM
Don't look at the number sjust keep reaching out to possible donations

I just registered to vote in NY, woot woot

Eleanor
11-30-2007, 09:41 AM
A massively important line from the Miami Herald article:

"If it [Nov. 30th fundraising drive] fails, Paul runs the risk of being dismissed as a one-hit wonder, especially since his online popularity has barely surfaced in the polls."

Also, "Lyman is ready to do it again, with a more modest goal of $2.5 million by midnight Friday. He started soliciting pledges only nine days ago, and this time, the national media is paying attention; he's juggling interviews this week from The Los Angeles Times, The Chicago Tribune and The Christian Science Monitor."


T H E

M E D I A

I S

W A T C H I N G ! ! !

http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/326421.html

Platondas
11-30-2007, 09:44 AM
Based on current trends and making a few assumptions about the pattern of donation rates on money bomb days I believe we are on target for about .8-1.2 mil at this time.

JWallace
11-30-2007, 09:55 AM
and 12 M I L L I O N D O L L A R S (mild evil chuckle) by 11:59 pm.

gworrel
11-30-2007, 09:59 AM
Based on current trends and making a few assumptions about the pattern of donation rates on money bomb days I believe we are on target for about .8-1.2 mil at this time.

Which could change dramatically if people start getting excited about it. We are about to pass 10 million for the quarter. There are thousands of people out there who could donate today. I have donated once just after midnight to help get things off to a good start and plan to join in the one hour money bomb within a money bomb once I figure out what time that is taking place. I will probably donate 3 times today. This can be very big once it gets rolling.

JWallace
11-30-2007, 10:07 AM
Since 9 AM the rate is about $475/minute. With 13 hours (or 780 minutes to go) that's an additional $370,500 if the rate remains constant. However, it's not likely to remain constant. Based on previous fundraising days the rate picks up significantly after 12 PM.

So we could - realistically - end up around $11-$12 by days end. And that would be a real big story for all the media who's definitely watching us today.

Platondas
11-30-2007, 10:08 AM
That was just a mathematical model it would be nearly impossible to account for the one hour event later today (which I am also going to donate in).

mfoley1
11-30-2007, 10:09 AM
if we can hit 1 million today it will be a success IMO

JAYCEE
11-30-2007, 10:23 AM
The graph is turning much higher.


Considering there were only 9 days to prepare and considering what has already been given, we're looking at a victory no matter what the final number is.

It's not yet noon and we are knocking on the door of $190k.

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/nov_30_total.html



.

tonyr1988
11-30-2007, 10:26 AM
A massively important line from the Miami Herald article:

"If it [Nov. 30th fundraising drive] fails, Paul runs the risk of being dismissed as a one-hit wonder, especially since his online popularity has barely surfaced in the polls."

Also, "Lyman is ready to do it again, with a more modest goal of $2.5 million by midnight Friday. He started soliciting pledges only nine days ago, and this time, the national media is paying attention; he's juggling interviews this week from The Los Angeles Times, The Chicago Tribune and The Christian Science Monitor."


T H E

M E D I A

I S

W A T C H I N G ! ! !

http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/326421.html

The USA Today article also mentioned hitting $12million "a month ahead of schedule." They are definitely watching. This is our first test after Nov. 5. We need to make it work.

ClayTrainor
11-30-2007, 10:30 AM
That was just a mathematical model it would be nearly impossible to account for the one hour event later today (which I am also going to donate in).

which hour is it again? i forget:confused:

voytechs
11-30-2007, 10:34 AM
Not a chance. Our donation rate would need to increase about 5 times what it is right now.

http://paulcash.slact.net/

We're at about $30K per hour right now, which is our peak. We were doing about $250K per hour on 11/5. So we simply do not have enough people donating today. To make this happen.


I bet the campaign has some offline donations they will throw in, they haven't for last 2 weeks, that may give us an opportunity to reach $1m today, but that is as high as we can realistically shoot for in my opinion. But I've been wrong many times before.

tonyr1988
11-30-2007, 10:34 AM
which hour is it again? i forget:confused:

7-8pm EST

jp5065
11-30-2007, 10:39 AM
I bet the campaign has some offline donations they will throw in, they haven't for last 2 weeks, that may give us an opportunity to reach $1m today, but that is as high as we can realistically shoot for in my opinion. But I've been wrong many times before.


Actually they put in 230k two days ago.

paulitics
11-30-2007, 10:40 AM
It will be somewhere between 450k and 550k, based on the rate of donations.

chatoka
11-30-2007, 10:42 AM
It's ok people, $500K is a very good day of fundraising if that's all we get. And if we get up to 1 million, that would be awesome! But don't worry people, there's no question we will easily surpass the 4th Q goal soon, so keep positive!

tonyr1988
11-30-2007, 10:43 AM
It will all depend on 7-8pm EST (the mini-bomb within a bomb). Nothing can predict how that will go. It may help, it may not - we can't tell yet.

If you did a linear regression of pre-Nov. 5, there was no way we would reach $12 million for Q4. Hopefully the same is true today (that the hour bomb will be bigger than most people think).

Platondas
11-30-2007, 10:43 AM
Whats going to be really important is the acceleration, and based on downward trend after we hit 10mil the target will be revised down.

RockHoward
11-30-2007, 11:04 AM
For what it is worth, here are my projections as of 11:57AM EST.

Linear projection: $407,256.
This will be the second best donation day of the campaign beating Nov. 6th by about $20K.

This amount leaves us $30K short of the goal to beat Rudy's 3rdQ donations by today.

I believe that things will pick up and we will end up with $535K for the day, but we have to go out and ask people to donate now!

It looks we are on track to hit $12M a few days before Dec. 16th which would be a great boost to the campaign as well as the TeaParty itself.

JWallace
11-30-2007, 11:04 AM
The over all rate is $282/minute. The rate since 9am is $483. And the rate since 11am is now $444/minute....we need to pick that up.

Michigan11
11-30-2007, 11:07 AM
Goal: Pass Rudy's fundraising record by 2pm.

Next: Hit the 11 Million mark by 7pm.

Finally: Finish it off and hit the 12 Million Dollar goal by Midnight...donate $25 between 7-8 tonight.

adpierce
11-30-2007, 11:20 AM
Patience. Maybe people are waiting to cash their checks from work

Michigan11
11-30-2007, 11:23 AM
Patience. Maybe people are waiting to cash their checks from work

Great point!

JWallace
11-30-2007, 12:07 PM
It would be nice if the RP had an offline kicker to add to our online totals. Looking at yesterday's note from the Campaign makes me wonder about this. If RP kicked in enough at the right moment to get us to $11 mil, that might really inspire this crowd to reach back into wallet for the $12.

RockHoward
11-30-2007, 12:43 PM
Picking up a little steam now. Now on track for $443K which would surpass the stretch goal of $10.285M by the end the day by about 6K. Keep it up!

Platondas
11-30-2007, 12:46 PM
I am going to revise down my estimate to 600k-800k

voytechs
11-30-2007, 12:47 PM
A million is all I expected, because of the short notice. Plus there aren't any videos out there promoting this, well if there are, not many. I think the campaign could use a boost today but Ron Paul himself said they aren't even sure how to spend the money they already have so I'm not worried.

That was a joke. Of course they know how to spend it and they need more. They are not surprised by the money raised since they asked for $12mil, we're still $2 short of that.

JWallace
11-30-2007, 12:50 PM
Be positive. Already, this week is the 2nd best total for the quarter....We'll get there.

voytechs
11-30-2007, 12:51 PM
The rate is picking up a bit. We're at 36K/hr which is still far below the lowest rate on 11/5 which was $50k/hr. But if the rate increases we might get passed $1mil today.

I think people returning from work and cashing their checks will make a big difference.

tomaO2
11-30-2007, 12:53 PM
To be honest, I was upset about the goal of getting to 12 million. That was just insanely ambitious. Especially with only around 2,000 doners on the list. If we can make it to 400k to 500k+ this will be a sucess on the same lines as Nov 5th because it means about double the money will come in that has people who pledged.

JWallace
11-30-2007, 01:13 PM
Since 11AM the rate is about $500/minute. If that holds we might be at an additional $300K. But we might get steeper once people start coming home from work.

RockHoward
11-30-2007, 01:17 PM
Good point. There were 2,298 pledgers but already over 3,050 donors today and on track for well over 5,000 donors today.

NerveShocker
11-30-2007, 01:30 PM
Good point. There were 2,298 pledgers but already over 3,050 donors today and on track for well over 5,000 donors today.

People can't help themselves...everybody loves jumping into help the cause, whether we sign up for it or not. :cool:

Matthew Zak
11-30-2007, 01:31 PM
Keep in mind some people donate more than once also.

Sey.Naci
11-30-2007, 01:56 PM
Did some calculations.

Start amount: $9,820.974
Goal: $12,000,000
Difference: $2,179,035
Average hourly donation required: $90,793
Current average hourly donation rate: $20,110

Been following the Paul Cash (http://paulcash.slact.net/) site, rather than RP Graphs b/c I like the fancy graph and the options at the top right of the page.

MarcS
11-30-2007, 02:18 PM
Do me a favor, everyone start shouting it from the rooftops when we pass Rudy's 3rd quarter earnings of $10,258,019. It's a major accomplishment on its own. The media's attention span is very short. If we talk about this like the major accomplishment that it is, there's a strong chance that positivity will carry over.

scrosnoe
11-30-2007, 02:27 PM
Do me a favor, everyone start shouting it from the rooftops when we pass Rudy's 3rd quarter earnings of $10,258,019. It's a major accomplishment on its own. The media's attention span is very short. If we talk about this like the major accomplishment that it is, there's a strong chance that positivity will carry over.

YES YES YES!!! :D

WRellim
11-30-2007, 02:36 PM
Once we had 1st two hours of data...

I ran some calculations on the curve and wrote down a prediction of a final total (online donations) ending between $630K to $790K.

Recalculating at 3PM CST totals, it looks like we're tracking now for a bit higher than the middle of that range, and at the current rate, final total would be round $730K to $750K.

The single hour "min-money-bomb" COULD alter that upward somewhat significantly.

Still, achieving over $700K within a day on such short notice and without the heavy promotion that the TeaParty has received, is still quite an accomplishment.

Whether the $12M total is actually breached by the end of today (thus end of month) may not matter so much -- we will almost have reached the quarter's total a month early, which is very notable considering that many (myself included) felt that the $12M goal was "ambitious" -- and it DOES mean that Ron is successfully reaching a significant number of NEW donors and voters.

IOW, "He's catching on!"
:rolleyes:

Rhys
11-30-2007, 02:36 PM
Half a million aint chump change.

mconder
11-30-2007, 03:03 PM
final total would be round $730K to $750K.

I think it's a disappointment, especially since the media has already been alerted that the goal is to hit 12Mil today. I have done my part by donating double what I did on Nov. 5th...I truely hope many others do the same.

lloydian
11-30-2007, 03:16 PM
the media should not have been alerted as to $12 mil goal today.

That was a mistake and unreasonably optimistic. Who was responsible for this?
The media should not have been alerted about today period truthfully. Today has/never was expected to be over $1 million or any such matter.

I expected today would be maybe $500k give or take a little which is splendid considering the Tea Party is just over 2 weeks away.

We must exhibit much more self control and sound logic with regards to these matters.

WRellim
11-30-2007, 03:18 PM
final total would be round $730K to $750K.

I think it's a disappointment, especially since the media has already been alerted that the goal is to hit 12Mil today. I have done my part by donating double what I did on Nov. 5th...I truely hope many others do the same.

Yes, but that statement was of a "goal" (and a fairly naive one) -- just as the "goal" of November5th was actually $10M (also naive "wishful thinking").

I'm actually MORE hopeful about Dec 16th now, because the total IS lower today.

Why? Because it tells me that majority of the "grassroots" donors have either simply ignored, or successfully resisted the temptation (or "orders") to cannibalize the TeaParty07 mass donation date.

I'm still a bit concerned that JB's "email bombs" may have offended or (completely) driven off some donors, but less so than before.

Hopefully he will stay silent, or write only "positive requests" for donations between now and Dec 16th. (For example the 11/29 email was both well-worded, positive, and even had a "fun" suggestion -- the only possible complaint about it from my mind was the "timing" but even that were only a minor issue and not even annoying as it somewhat "played into" the donation drive today.)

What I think HAS been proven today is that -- whether they like it or not -- the campaign NEEDS to acknowledge that the fund-raising is BEST left to the passion of the grassroots than it is to the "milking" by the campaign. Jon needs to stick to "analysis" and spend time trying to come up with creative "alternate" ways of raising funds rather than "flogging the base".

In other words, the campaign staff need to "go with the flow" and set their own egos aside FOR THE SAKE OF THE CAMPAIGN'S SUCCESS!

lloydian
11-30-2007, 03:21 PM
These are good points WRellim

shadowhooch
11-30-2007, 03:21 PM
In other words, the campaign staff need to "go with the flow" and set their own egos aside FOR THE SAKE OF THE CAMPAIGN'S SUCCESS!

I'm not sure it is the campaign staff that have the ego problem.:rolleyes:

RockHoward
11-30-2007, 03:25 PM
Besides passing up the other Q3 totals, the other point of emphasis over the next 10 days as the $12M goal is surpasses, is to explain that the campaign has attracted over 100,000 different American's to donate. This is a far far larger number than any other Republican candidate and demonstrates the popularity of the Ron Paul campaign with everyday people.

(It would be nice if the campaign could coroborate that statement!)

WRellim
12-01-2007, 06:03 AM
I'm not sure it is the campaign staff that have the ego problem.:rolleyes:

Actually, I think that they do. But that is a natural HUMAN thing and is to be expected.

Some of them have experience working on other campaigns, and that is both a good thing, and a bad thing.

See, the problem is THIS campaign is not like other campaigns -- it is NOT like Ron Paul's Congressional Campaigns; and it is NOT like other Presidential campaigns (despite the media's fixation, it is not even like Howard Dean's, which despite the online donations, was MUCH more astroturf than "grassroots" [hint: Do a Google search on "Joe Trippi Meetup Wired (http://www.google.com/search?q=Joe+Trippi+meetup+wired)" )

Now every campaign has "unique" aspects -- and just as every GOOD knowledgeable military leader SHOULD know the mistake and trap of "fighting the LAST war over again"; well campaign people ARE aware of the fact that there are always "subtle" differences, sometimes "major" differences.

But the Ron Paul campaign -- especially in THIS year's Republican primary season -- is, IMHO, *SO* different from all other campaigns, that majority of the "rule book" needs to be discarded; in fact, so many of the "rules" (and here I mean the "unwritten rules" of campaigning, NOT the FEC regulations) -- but so many of the "rules" are being broken or bent all out of shape that the whole "unwritten rule book" really ought to be discarded.


Enter the complete "rule breaking" incident of a grassroots driven November 5th, and, well, THAT causes disruptions. Staffers become somewhat uncertain of what their roles and jobs are. Traditional job descriptions may no longer apply, etc.

Subtle "ribbing" can and WILL occur inside the office (can you imagine, just for a few minutes, the gentle "ribbing" that other staffers probably gave Jon Bydlak right AFTER November 5th? I wasn't a fly on the wall, but I know office environments, and you can be pretty certain that "water cooler jokes" were spoken -- at least among the younger staff -- about how maybe this "Trevor" guy was the REAL fund-raising director, and that JB was no longer needed, etc. Har Har! Add the existence of Forums like this one and DailyPaul... and well, one's ego can get bruised up pretty quickly.)

Same can be true of other "staffers" -- when a large DE-centralized grassroots like ours exists; well if something is seen as "inadequate" or "missing" in the campaign's official work, SOMEONE steps in and comes up with an ALTERANATIVE solution... deploys it in a matter of days, and does an "end-run" around the campaign. This has happened SO MANY TIMES in this campaign -- not JUST with November 5th; but even just the original "logo" being "replaced" and "overrun" by the "Ron Paul R3VOLUTION" banners; or the OperationNH, ALCPAC, and other grassroots Radio and TV spots that came out prior to, alongside, or shortly after the campaigns own spots, etc. Even down to Vijay's "OLFOD" to do the campaigning and canvassing of NH -- unexpected and pretty much outside of the control of the campaign staff.

Volunteers and grassroots are like the "militia" in the movie "The Patriot" -- not well respected by the "professionals" who merely want to "use" them like "regular army" (aka cannon fodder) -- yet they are not and never will be. Instead, the "militia" by being independent are MUCH more de-centralized and therefore free-thinking, adaptable, quicker reacting, able to roll with the punches, etc.

I guess my point is that while all of the above may have existed in "small part" in other campaigns, there has never been a campaign with the "distorted" numbers that ours has -- where the "militia" grassroots has essentially seized control of the campaign and is essentially the cart pulling the proverbial horses. (Horses don't want to be pulled, and if the are hitched to the cart, they are being pulled backwards and can't see where they are going, they're going to "freak" a bit!)

So this is something new -- and just like all of the grassroots volunteers (and Meetup organizers, etc) are having to learn a host of new things -- so the campaign people are having to learn a bunch of new things as well.

It's INEVITABLE that some errors are going to happen, that egos are going to become bruised, toes are going to get stepped on, fur rubbed the wrong way, etc. And there isn't a lot of time available to spend "apologizing" or coddling anyone -- or even waiting for people to get the idea, you kind of have to forge ahead, change directions when you run into obstacles (or otherwise learn that YOU picked the wrong direction), etc.

This campaign isn't about any one person (not even Ron Paul -- and HE knows that even if others don't), which means that staffers AND grassroots "leaders" need to drop personal ambitions and egos (and they exist in EVERYONE) and instead "go with the flow."

Ya know!:cool: