Allahpundit thinks Cruz isn't going to run (HotAir - 2/12/2014)

[WD-NY]

Thoughts on Allahpundit's thinking??

If this turns out to be true and Cruz gets behind Rand early, I honestly think there's a chance Rand will have the GOP nomination wrapped up before Super Tuesday (because he can/should win every state except Florida).

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/02/12/poll-of-62000-tea-partiers-ted-cruz-is-the-most-popular-republican-2016-candidate-chris-christie-rock-bottom/

By the way, for what it’s worth, increasingly I think Cruz won’t run. He just doesn’t need to right now. Rand Paul may feel more urgency because no one knows how long the libertarian-ish moment America’s experiencing will last. Cruz, a younger man, may decide he’s got plenty of time and could use a few more years in the Senate to (re)build relationships and to keep building his brand. Even if some other Republican wins in 2016, he’ll only be in his early 50s by the time he’s free to run again in 2024, by which time his resume will be longer and more impressive. In the meantime, he could earn some grudging goodwill from libertarians who are suspicious of him by backing Paul in 2016, maybe in exchange for an appointment to AG or even the Supreme Court if Paul wins. (In which case, cancel the 2024 plans.) If Paul loses to Hillary, that’s okay too. That just means Cruz can run in 2020, when the country will be suffering from 12 years of Democratic fatigue instead of eight. And if Paul loses in the primary to a centrist Republican, that’s also okay. Cruz can then spend the rest of his Senate term attacking the next president, whether Democrat or Republican, for being too liberal. And best of all, he won’t have to compete with Rand for tea-party attention: I believe Kentucky law bars candidates from running for two federal offices simultaneously, so if Paul jumps into the 2016 field, he’s done as a senator one way or another. However you slice it, Cruz can afford to wait.

Here are the results from 2012: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

http://i.imgur.com/PPnlI6k.jpg

[torchbearer]

Actually, Rand could run for senator, and not be on a primary ballot for president. just in kentucky.
what the delegates on the ground do can't be controlled.

[dinosaur]

Cruz wouldn't have a chance in the general election. He must know this? He has made himself into a polarizing figure. If he runs, it won't be for the win. It will be to split the vote. I think the analysis is off, because it is based on Cruz having presidential aspirations.

Maybe Cruz has vice presidential aspirations? He could bring conservative cred to a more moderate candidate like Bush.

[eleganz]

I think Cruz and Rand are playing a loosely planned indirect game of divide and conquer.

[twomp]

I think Cruz and Rand are playing a loosely planned indirect game of divide and conquer.
Yeah, all those comments from Cruz about wanting to bomb Iran is just a game.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Allahpundit thinks Cruz isn't going to run

Cruz is not. I've posted this a thousand times here: he's only trying to build a national profile by pretending to consider a serious presidential run. It's like Palin doing so in 2011 to get people to donate to SarahPAC.

[jj-]

I've always thought Cruz wasn't going to run. He wouldn't want to interfere with Rand's run, because they're relatively close ideologically.

[eleganz]

Yeah, all those comments from Cruz about wanting to bomb Iran is just a game.

jesus christ, they don't have to agree on everything.

[serenityrick]

jesus christ, they don't have to agree on everything.

Agreed.

The absolute best case scenario is Rand being the only tea party linked/libertarian/liberty candidate in a sea of establishment RINOs having the full support of Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, etc..

If it plays out like that, I think Rand wins the nomination quite easily.. Same goes for the Presidency.

But again.. if there's a log jam of Paul, Cruz, Lee or other strong small government conservatives then the vote will be split in the primaries and that's where Karl Rove and establishment money will win out and we'll be stuck with Christie, Huckabee or Bush.

[twomp]

jesus christ, they don't have to agree on everything.

Who said they did? Jump to conclusions much? You think they are playing this game where they are pulling the wool over the establishment's eyes, "divide and conquer" you called it. I just simply disagree. I think the people being fooled here are the liberty people who think Cruz is one of us. I actually have more proof than you do. Can you show me some evidence of this "divide and conquer" strategy?

[jj-]

we'll be stuck with Christie, Huckabee or Bush.

You forgot Walker.

[whoisjohngalt]

You forgot Walker.

Thank you. I believe it will be Walker vs. Paul in the primaries.

[Tywysog Cymru]

Thank you. I believe it will be Walker vs. Paul in the primaries.

What about Jeb Bush?

[serenityrick]

Walker would be an improvement over Romney but meh.

If it's Walker vs. Paul then I think Paul wins pretty big.

[boneyard bill]

Cruz faces a situation similar to Obama in 2008. Although he was still quite young and didn't have much national experience, he was still news and part of the reason was that he was a fresh face. If he waited, he would gain more experience, but he would also become old news. He would become a fixture in Washington. But there is still a big difference. Obama was the main challenger to Hillary whereas Cruz is only about fifth place in the polls and sinking. He's also wearing out his welcome in D.C. where some Senate Republicans quickly lined up with Dems to close debate and prevent Cruz from filibustering the debt ceiling.

We've seen them come and go. First it was Rubio. Then it was Cruz. Then it was Christie. Now its Huckabee. But they all faded. It's just the flavor of the month all over again. Rand has remained among the top three the whole time. I think it's less a question of whether or not Cruz runs as it is whether or not he goes anywhere if he does. He's popular in Iowa, but he tanks big time in New Hampshire.

My guess, and it's just a wild guess, is that Cruz would rather remain an outside force in Washington than embarrass himself with a (very likely) failed presidential campaign. He gains more from being a threat to run than he does by running a campaign he is unlikely to win.