New Poll: Lindsey Graham May Be Finished For -- Benswann.com

[twomp]

SOUTH CAROLINA, February 6, 2014– U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R) will not be sitting happy by time the results of the most recent round of polls reach his desk. According to a poll conducted by Wenzel Strategies, Graham is in big trouble.

The poll included 623 “likely Republican primary voters” who were questioned via telephone between Febuary 3-4. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%

The poll asked voters two questions. First, if the election were held today, who would you vote for?

Lindsey Graham: 45.9%
Lee Bright 17.4%
Nancy Mace: 5.1%
Richard Cash: 4.9%
Bill Connor: 4.2%
Not sure: 22.5%

Second, should Lindsey Graham be reelected or is it time for someone new?

Deserves reelection: 38%
Time for someone new: 49%
Not sure: 13%





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[angelatc]

Boy I hope that pans out. It's a David v Goliath race though.

If 5% of the 22% undecided picks Graham, it's over.

[satchelmcqueen]

lindsey needs to go away!

[Bastiat's The Law]

When is the primary?

[Occam's Banana]

When is the primary?

Not toady ... :toady:

According to http://www.politics1.com/sc.htm
- the primary is June 10th
- the primary runoff is June 24th

[Dianne]

OMG, I hate to get my hopes up; but I would be absolutely thrilled if S.C. would dump him once and for all !!

[LibertyEagle]

I don't see what is so wonderful. 45.9% said they'd vote for him.

[Occam's Banana]

I don't see what is so wonderful. 45.9% said they'd vote for him.

The margin of error is +/- 3.9% - so that puts the range for Graham at 42.0% to 49.8%.
This means that Graham only needs 0.2% to 8.0% of the undecideds in order for him to win outright (without a runoff).

Undecideds came in at 22.5% - so that makes for a range of 18.6% to 26.4%.

So assuming the poll is an accurate reflection of the situation, LE is right - things don't really look so great.

In order to keep Graham under the 50% needed for a runoff, the percentage of undecideds we need to vote against Graham would be:
- 57% in the best-case scenario (using the 42.0% lower bound for Graham and the 18.6% lower bound for undecideds)
- 82% using the straight poll numbers (i.e., 45.9% for Graham and 22.5% undecided)
- 99% in the worst-case scenario (using the 49.8% upper bound for Graham and either bound for undecideds)

All else being equal, it appears that our only hope is that a large majority of undecideds are undecided because they definitely don't want Graham but haven't yet been able to settle on any of the alternatives to him ...