PPP 2016 GOP Poll - National (Jan '14)

[tsai3904]

National
January 23-26, 2014
457 Republican primary voters
+/-4.6%




Jan (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/huckabee-up-clinton-down.html)
Dec (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/christie-leads-both-democratic-and-gop-fields.html)
Oct (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/4-way-tie-for-republicans-in-2016-clinton-improved-in-general-election-matches.html)
Sep (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/09/cruz-emerges-as-gop-leader.html)
Jul (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/07/paul-cruz-rising-for-2016.html)
May (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/05/4-way-tie-for-republicans-clinton-leads-dems.html)
Mar (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/paul-on-the-rise-hillary-at-new-high.html)
Feb (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/looking-ahead-to-2016-nationally-and-in-iowa.html)
Jan (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/clinton-still-tops-for-2016.html)
Dec (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/looking-ahead-to-2016.html)


Huckabee
16%
13%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
11%
11%
15%
11%


Bush
14%
10%
14%
11%
13%
15%
12%
13%
14%
12%


Christie
13%
19%
16%
14%
13%
15%
15%
13%
14%
14%


Paul
11%
11%
16%
17%
16%
14%
17%
10%
5%
7%


Cruz
8%
14%
15%
20%
12%
7%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a


Rubio
8%
7%
10%
10%
10%
16%
21%
22%
21%
18%


Ryan
8%
10%
11%
10%
13%
9%
12%
15%
16%
12%


Walker
6%
4%
n/a
3%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a


Jindal
5%
3%
6%
4%
4%
3%
4%
4%
3%
n/a






Jan
Dec
Oct
Jul
May
Mar


Clinton
45%
42%
44%
43%
47%
46%


Christie
43%
45%
39%
42%
44%
42%











Clinton
46%
48%
49%
47%
51%
49%


Paul
43%
43%
37%
39%
41%
43%











Clinton
47%
49%
50%
n/a
n/a
n/a


Cruz
41%
41%
33%
n/a
n/a
n/a

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Huckabee's inclusion in the poll sure took the wind out of Paul's sail.

Cruz seems to have collapsed for some other reason, as Huckabee didn't phase his December numbers.

[Brett85]

I hope Huckabee decides not to run.

[trey4sports]

Huckabee would be a nightmare. I have a lot of faith in Rand but I also want the cards to stacked in our favor as much as possible.

[lib3rtarian]

This is further proof that the Republicans can never be satisfied - if the party was a person, it'd be one big swinger, flitting from one one-night stand to the other. You have to be constantly in the news and do attention-grabbing things for them to stay focused on you. Otherwise, their dreamy eyes just float over to the next person in line. Democrats, on the other hand, always solidly line up behind a candidate and give that candidate all of the resources and momentum.

[supermario21]

Ugh, sickening to see the fiscally liberal, statist, common core brigade holding down the top 2 spots. I think most Republicans are too stupid to know what they what, hence why they're always attracted to sound bytes. Where was the last sound byte on Huckabee's fiscally liberal governorship or his support for common core?

[compromise]

National
January 23-26, 2014
457 Republican primary voters
+/-4.6%



Clinton
46%
48%
49%
47%
51%
49%


Paul
43%
43%
37%
39%
41%
43%












Rand is only 3% away from Clinton. This is the real highlight of the poll.

[Brett85]

Rand needs to get his national favorability ratings up. He's only at 33% favorable and 42% unfavorable. The Clinton comments probably don't help at all with independents and Democrats.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Huckabee is such a huge threat to Paul and Cruz because he's precisely the candidate that can prevent them from winning Iowa. Iowa loves them some Christian conservatives (Robertson, Huckabee, Santorum...)

[compromise]

Unusual that Cruz is the only Republican candidate with a net positive favorability among Hispanics, despite his immigration positions.

[sluggo]

Unusual that Cruz is the only Republican candidate with a net positive favorability among Hispanics, despite his immigration positions.

It's the name. I doubt these folks know who he actually is.

[compromise]

Cruz also has higher favorability among voters aged 18-29 than any other Republican candidate and Warren, but versus Clinton, gets a lower percentage share of the vote (28%) than Ryan (34%), Christie (31%) and Rand (30%). Among Republican voters 18-45, he is the only net unfavorable GOP candidate. Paul beats Christie there, but does worse than Ryan and Huckabee.

Versus Clinton, Rand gets a larger share of the Hispanic vote (30%) than any other candidate other than Cruz.

[Bergie Bergeron]

This poll is flawed:

I guess this goes to show that almost any bit of media attention that gets your name out there is good media attention when it comes to temporary poll standings.

@ppppolls - "We started a national poll last night after Huckabee had been in the news for his comments all day...and he was leading the GOP 2016 field"

[ssunlimited]

This doesn't look good. Paul is only at 4th place.

[Brett85]

This doesn't look good. Paul is only at 4th place.

It's not that important this far out. The concerning thing to me is Rand's -9% favorable/unfavorable rating. He even has a slightly negative rating among moderate Republicans. Ron was always popular among Democrats, independents, and moderate Republicans because of his outspoken foreign policy views and his strong stance in favor of ending the war on drugs. Rand has taken a different path and is much stronger than Ron with conservative Republicans, but he's less popular with every other group.

[GunnyFreedom]

Unusual that Cruz is the only Republican candidate with a net positive favorability among Hispanics, despite his immigration positions.

My experience has been that Hispanic voters detest open borders more than Tea Conservatives.

[Brett85]

My experience has been that Hispanic voters detest open borders more than Tea Conservatives.

Then what do you think causes them to vote for Democrats?

[ObiRandKenobi]

you gotta be a real ahole to like hukcabee

[Michael Landon]

If it comes down to Bush vs Clinton, I'll probably shoot myself.

- ML

[69360]

Huckabee still? Are we really going to pretend that an old fat white evangelical minister can beat Hillary in the USA in the year 2016?

[GunnyFreedom]

Then what do you think causes them to vote for Democrats?

Democrats actually go and talk to them.

[AlexAmore]

Huckabee still? Are we really going to pretend that an old fat white evangelical minister can beat Hillary in the USA in the year 2016?

Yes. We are going to pretend that we can elect an old fat white evangelical minister right after we voted in a young black hip liberal... and we're gonna take on a woman next! Bring it statistics and trends....we'll fight you to the death!

[anaconda]

Ummm.. why is Jeb now rising? Somebody please explain. Why now? Why didn't he have Mitt Romney numbers many months ago?

[invisible]

Huckabee's inclusion in the poll sure took the wind out of Paul's sail.

Cruz seems to have collapsed for some other reason, as Huckabee didn't phase his December numbers.

That's EXACTLY why he was included in the poll. This is nothing more than a test to see how well the 2012 strategy will hold up and continue to be useful (meaning, if people will fall for it again):
Pump up a candidate in the media for a short period of time.
Report that that candidate is "surging".
Candidate's polls numbers magically skyrocket.
Move on to another candidate, and repeat.
Continue the above cycle, so that the non-approved candidate cannot focus an attack on the real intended target of nomination anointment.
Double down with this effort, combined with a well-timed smear campaign, right before the IA caucus.
Ensure that the most unelectable and / or most bland candidate possible is anointed with the nomination by a scripted convention.
democrat wins.