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View Full Version : Ball don't lie. Part 1




Highmesa
06-25-2007, 10:27 PM
I was playing around with the US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract (http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/hist_stats.html) tonight.

I ran up some numbers on healthcare costs. These are especially helpful when debating the tools that want a single payer socialist system. I posted a chart here: Historical US Per Capita Healthcare Spending (http://www.highmesa.us/US%20Healthcare%20Costs.pdf)

These numbers are the average costs per person in real 2001 dollars (chained). i.e. it has been corrected to remove the effect of inflation.

A couple data points warrant mentioning:

- In 1929 (first available year) that average person spent $263 on healthcare.

- In 1945, when FDR had frozen wages during WWII and companies started offering a health insurance benefit, the average person spent $386 per year. During the period from 1929 to 1945, costs increased by $7.68 per person per year. This is a significant point, as it is when most people were given "free" healthcare coverage through their company benefits plan. This fact alone would have started to increase usage.

- In 1964, When LBJ signed the first Medicare Act, the average person spent $947. From 1945 to 1964, costs increased by $29.52 per person per year. This was the official point when the government got in the game and started (mis)managing the healthcare system.

- In 2001 (last year available) the averge person spent $4,450. From 1964 to 2001, costs increased by $94.67 per person per year. You can see from the graph this is not a linear increase, and is actually accelerating.

Remember monetary inflation has been removed so these are REAL spending increases. Since healthcare costs are part of the CPI, these increases are probably understated. This shows what a horrible impact the government has had on our healthcare system, and gives a preview of what we can expect if they totally take it over.

An interesting stat pulled right off the abstract is that in 1929, people spent 4% of their total consumption on healthcare. in 1945, it was 4.3%. In 1964 it was 7.7%. and finally, in 2001 it was up to 18.2%

I'd appreciate any comments and criticism to refine this argument.

I'll address education next. I have some data on that already on my work laptop. I'll try to remember to forward it home tomorrow.

DjLoTi
06-25-2007, 10:38 PM
Thanks for your research. Ya looks like the years are a lil jacked up, and maybe on your graph put a footnote on the events which you describe in your post?

Texan4Life
06-25-2007, 10:47 PM
Great work!

Oh, and for me the graph just has a bunch of random numbers for the years.

Also I would suggest having your tid-bits about the government involvement somewhere on there too.

MBA2008
06-25-2007, 10:52 PM
Edit: I didn't see the links - sorry. I'll take a look.

Thanks for your efforts. I can't wait to see education as well. I am presently working on a global warming analysis. Hopefully we can trade presentations when they are ready.

Regards,

Ben

mikelovesgod
06-25-2007, 10:59 PM
That's incredible stats and work. I am saving this on my computer I like it so much.

ecliptic
06-25-2007, 11:03 PM
This shows what a horrible impact the government has had on our healthcare system, and gives a preview of what we can expect if they totally take it over.

An interesting stat pulled right off the abstract is that in 1929, people spent 4% of their total consumption on healthcare. in 1945, it was 4.3%. In 1964 it was 7.7%. and finally, in 2001 it was up to 18.2%


I believe a new more drastic approach might be considered alongside getting the federal government the heck out of everyone's business: revoking corporate charters... as a rather harsh punitive measure against the "bad apples" ( and there are many )

If a healthcare corporation ( or any corporation for that matter ) stood to actually have it's corporate charter revoked by the citizens, it might suddenly find the ability to deliver decent affordable care... like magic! Funny how a true free market will deliver supply on demand!

If you haven't seen this classic activist film The Corporation (http://www.thecorporation.com/) Please see it, buy it, support the filmmakers as they have done a great and noble thing in creating this film.

I would argue that corporate greed is "built in" and that the vast majority of corporations DO behave exactly like psychopaths in their pursuit of a profitable next quarter. Only through correcting the excessive power of corporations will any of the "big picture" problems be solved.

I propose we all look into AMIBA (http://amiba.net/) and support fair trade local independent sources for anything possible, including healthcare. It's complex and takes extra effort. Vote with your wallet right now... no need to wait until 2008.

• boycott corporate media
• demand paper ballots
• reject government tyranny

that is all.

Highmesa
06-25-2007, 11:14 PM
Great work!

Oh, and for me the graph just has a bunch of random numbers for the years.

Also I would suggest having your tid-bits about the government involvement somewhere on there too.

Open Office is kind of primative when it comes to graphing. I wanted to mark those points on the graph but didn't know how. Now that I think of it, I may know a way.

I had to cut the years to 2 digits - it wouldn't print 4 so they read kind of funny. You have read them vertically.
2 3 3 3
9 0 1 2 etc.

Maybe I'll try to refine it on excel at work tomorrow.

Highmesa
06-25-2007, 11:29 PM
I believe a new more drastic approach might be considered alongside getting the federal government the heck out of everyone's business: revoking corporate charters... as a rather harsh punitive measure against the "bad apples" ( and there are many )

If a healthcare corporation ( or any corporation for that matter ) stood to actually have it's corporate charter revoked by the citizens, it might suddenly find the ability to deliver decent affordable care... like magic! Funny how a true free market will deliver supply on demand!

If you haven't seen this classic activist film The Corporation (http://www.thecorporation.com/) Please see it, buy it, support the filmmakers as they have done a great and noble thing in creating this film.

I would argue that corporate greed is "built in" and that the vast majority of corporations DO behave exactly like psychopaths in their pursuit of a profitable next quarter. Only through correcting the excessive power of corporations will any of the "big picture" problems be solved.

I propose we all look into AMIBA (http://amiba.net/) and support fair trade local independent sources for anything possible, including healthcare. It's complex and takes extra effort. Vote with your wallet right now... no need to wait until 2008.

• boycott corporate media
• demand paper ballots
• reject government tyranny

that is all.

There is no doubt that this government intervention has allowed big corporations to climb into bed with the federal government and restrict competition resulting in higher costs. I should have added the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act of 1938. that was the point at which the government took the reigns in determining if a drug is safe for market.

Robert Higgs has written some great stuff on this. Against Leviathan (http://www.amazon.com/Against-Leviathan-Government-Power-Society/dp/0945999968) is a spectacular work that outlines the statistical risk errors created by this system that on net, kill more people than they help. Here is an article of his from Mises.org in which discusses the problem: http://www.mises.org/story/2245

Highmesa
06-25-2007, 11:49 PM
I upgraded the chart to highlight the significant eras.

Shmuel Spade
06-26-2007, 12:08 AM
Open Office is kind of primative when it comes to graphing.

Have you tried Google's stuff?

http://www.google.com/google-d-s/b1.html

Highmesa
06-26-2007, 11:13 AM
Have you tried Google's stuff?

http://www.google.com/google-d-s/b1.html

No I haven't. Maybe I'll give it a look, but I really don't do many graphs to begin with.

I wrote this stuff up to help activists here deal with their left-leaning friends and for trying to win converts. Not just to debate the issue. Apparently, it was deemed that it should be buried on the general politics board. So be it - not my board.

At this point I don't think it will be worth my time to pull the education stuff together. These are complex issues that have been obfuscated my the media and the major parties. Dr. Paul has some off-the-wall positions about this stuff and it helps to have information that backs those positions. I wanted to hand out some ammo, not debate the issues.

Shmuel Spade
06-26-2007, 10:34 PM
It was good info. Hopefully those on the other side of the aisle will take a look at the evidence with new eyes once they come to appreciate Rep. Paul for his other values.