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rich34
12-13-2013, 09:09 AM
Huckabee's potential run would affect Rand? I could see in some ways possibly helping in Iowa. Along with Santorum it would take away Cruz' support among the social cons, Rand I'm sure will draw from this group as well, but not like Huck or Santorum. Ron's support alone was nearly enough if not really enough if votes were counted properly to win anyway, if those same people break for Rand along with his new supporters that should be enough to take Iowa. I see Romney's support being divided among Christie and the other GOP establishment candidates. If Huck does indeed run Cruz and his pastor father should back out and endorse Rand, but I'll believe that when I see it.
Rocco
12-13-2013, 10:13 AM
Rich, you are dead on target my friend. Huckabee entering helps us because it hurts Cruz severely. Cruz is trying to pull off the same basic thing Rand is (unite the social cons and the libertarians), except he's made further progress w/ social cons where Rand has made the more significant progress w/ libertarians. Both groups would have fallen back on their main base had their outreach not worked, but now Cruz has no "base" to return to should he not be able to win over libertarians. Huckabee is now the default option for social cons, Rand is the default option for libertarians and Cruz is in a real bind. I think his problem will ultimately be that he'll be everybody's second choice, but very few peoples first choice. Huckabee throwing his hat in the ring greatly decreases the chances of Cruz running, though I still believe he will run.
rich34
12-13-2013, 03:27 PM
You're right I hope he don't but would bet my was he does. If he doesn't I sure hope he backs Rand. And I know many around here don't care for her but getting an endorsement from Palin would sure be nice since she's on team Rand and all. Well she said it not me : - )
WD-NY
12-13-2013, 03:52 PM
Rich, the addition of any candidate besides Christie and Rand who could stay in the race beyond the first few states is bad for us/Rand imo.
The Establishment is going to run one - and only one - candidate. Whether that's Christie (probably) or Bush (possibly), matters not. Whomever it is will have a lock on roughly 25-40% of the moderate/RHINO/NeoCon/low-information-voter vote in nearly all the early, pre-April states (see the percentage breakdowns between Romney, Ron, Santorum & Newt here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Republican_Party_presidential_prima ries,_2012#Early_states)).
The other 60-70% is up for grabs.
So sure, Hucklebee might hurt Cruz and Santorum a little more than he hurts Rand, but he doesn't take a single percentage point away from Christie. And that's what matters most.
erowe1
12-13-2013, 03:54 PM
Huckabee hurts us. Rand needs the religious right to win the primary. Without Huckabee in the race, Rand can win that demographic. Santorum is not nearly as much of a threat as Huckabee is.
In fact, if Huckabee runs, I'd call him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, no matter who else runs.
Cruz running would also hurt Rand. In fact, I think that probably for either Cruz or Rand to win, the other one needs to stay out of the race.
rich34
12-13-2013, 04:12 PM
If Cruz stays out of it I think Rand can win this thing regardless of who they run. But I think Cruz running is how they plan on detailing Rand, or at least try. I think even with fewer debates Rand can really set himself apart from the rest of em. But then again maybe they'll give Rand the Ron treatment and prevent him from showing the people just how much better he is. If they pull that chit for some reason I don't see Rand playing as nice as Ron did.
rich34
12-13-2013, 04:21 PM
Well another thing that just came to mind is if big money back Huck then at least he can go after Christie with it. I'm still curious just how much money Rand can raise. If its Ron levels he's in trouble, however if he can break through with the big money he'll be in great shape.
Dianne
12-13-2013, 05:18 PM
Huckabee hurts us. Rand needs the religious right to win the primary. Without Huckabee in the race, Rand can win that demographic. Santorum is not nearly as much of a threat as Huckabee is.
In fact, if Huckabee runs, I'd call him the favorite to win the GOP nomination, no matter who else runs.
Cruz running would also hurt Rand. In fact, I think that probably for either Cruz or Rand to win, the other one needs to stay out of the race.
You may be correct, because the GOP democrats like Boehner, McConnell, McCain, Graham et al, are going to work harder and harder each day for a war within the alleged republican party. Those guys are already working on the Democratic agenda for 2016.
philipped
12-13-2013, 06:44 PM
Does the GOP want to win?Can a true, modern, not TOTALLY socially but seriously fiscally conservative candidate win over a majority after 8 years of OBAMA, and 8 years of BUSH?Is this candidate gonna be another Bush? Another McCain? Romney?These are the kind of questions people should be asking themselves by the time the primaries are about to start. Our job should be convincing that RAND IS AND WILL BE DIFFERENT.
angelatc
12-13-2013, 07:13 PM
If Cruz stays out of it I think Rand can win this thing regardless of who they run. But I think Cruz running is how they plan on detailing Rand, or at least try. I think even with fewer debates Rand can really set himself apart from the rest of em. But then again maybe they'll give Rand the Ron treatment and prevent him from showing the people just how much better he is. If they pull that chit for some reason I don't see Rand playing as nice as Ron did.
I pretty much agree with this, except I want to see Rand playing offense.
erowe1
12-13-2013, 07:17 PM
Well another thing that just came to mind is if big money back Huck then at least he can go after Christie with it. I'm still curious just how much money Rand can raise. If its Ron levels he's in trouble, however if he can break through with the big money he'll be in great shape.
Big money will not back Huck.
Anti-Neocon
12-13-2013, 07:31 PM
Someone crazy like Adelson might throw money behind an Israel-firster like Huckabee.
libertarian101
12-13-2013, 07:32 PM
Don't get your hopes up guys because Rand will only be a one term senator as long as he has the same stance on immigration he has at the moment. When the majority of democrats in Kentucky and nationally are to the left of you on immigration, you have no hope. Conservative voters are extremely against amnesty. Immigration issue is 100 times more important to them than social issue. Rand will get beat by everybody on national GOP primary and will lose his senate seat to tea party primary challenger easily. If Rand wakes up from his comma and changes his mind like Rubio, he will be unbeatable.
rich34
12-13-2013, 08:19 PM
Big money will not back Huck.
I was thinking the same thing, but the article I read today suggested otherwise to even my surprise. I'm not sure who these big money people are, or if camp Huckabee was just making shit up, but they were saying they've been approached by big money to run this time and they'll back him. That's supposedly why Huckabee was giving it serious consideration because he was saying it wouldn't be like last time where he had no money.
If he runs he runs, but imo Huckabee is nothing more than a social conservative democrat and a hardcore democrat at that.
Brett85
12-13-2013, 10:59 PM
It would hurt Rand a lot if Huckabee entered the race, particularly in Iowa. Huckabee would get a lot of the social conservative vote that Rand would get if Huckabee weren't in the race.
rich34
12-14-2013, 04:20 PM
It would hurt Rand a lot if Huckabee entered the race, particularly in Iowa. Huckabee would get a lot of the social conservative vote that Rand would get if Huckabee weren't in the race.
I'm trying to think positive. I know Cruz' dad is a pastor and supposedly hit it off well with the Iowa pastors organization or whatever they call themselves so there's reason to believe they'll be somewhat loyal or at least some to Cruz. My hope is with Huckabee, Cruz, and Santorum that they'll really take this powerful bloc of voters in Iowa and minimize their affect due to be so diluted. We obviously know what this group is capable of IF they all stick together and back just one candidate. Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012. Ron was very competitive without this group fully backing him so any dilution of the vote amongst those voters could really cause Iowa to be a 3 to 4 man race. I'm thinking I see this as a positive for Rand so long as they don't unite behind just one candidate and if Cruz does run I don't see them all getting behind Huckabee with Cruz' father being a pastor. I seriously doubt Santorum can come remotely close to the vote total he received in 2012, but at the same time any support he draws in Iowa would come from this group in particular. There's simply just to many other options for the voter that aren't theocrats and unfortunately for Ricky boy that's all he brings to the table unless like Huckabee he wants to run as a democrat. Sure if Huckabee is able to unite this group he's going to be awful tough to beat, but I don't see him being able to do this. If Rand can take a small portion of them along with his father's supporters he's got it. I think Rand really needs to reach out to Palin who, according to her, is on Team Rand to endorse him and do some campaign appearances with him in Iowa. That right there outta be good enough to pull at least 5% of the social cons by herself.
After that NH isn't going to go for the whole social conservative thing so those candidates basing their candidacy on those voters alone will hit a road block here, however Rand should be able to pull off yet another win or close second. If Rand or the other candidates are smart, in almost every campaign attack ad against Christie will show the picture of him posing with Obama. Hopefully that should be enough to siphon off enough support to help Rand pull off a close win there. Ron pulled in 10% of the vote there so Rand will at the least need to triple that support. Romney won with 52% of the vote, but I don't see any candidate getting that much this time around since no one is the former governor from a neighboring state. Christie will probably be the guy to beat here, but unlike Romney, he'll be beatable.
Now once we get into the south, the social con candidates will rise up again, so it's very important Rand can at least steamroll the first two states. I know it's way to early to even be thinking about, but I'm bored and have been giving this some thought lately. Hell, if Jeb Bush decides to run it'll really be a cluster fuck. The positive about this scenario is that there will at least to be other big money candidates to attack each other. Damn I don't wanna wish my years away, but I'm really having a hard time waiting for primary season to roll around. The suspense will be killing me from now till then. In the meantime I'm still hoping that Cruz realizes that with both of them running both will lose and out of the two it's Rand not Ted that has the best shot at winning. However my gut feeling tells me that Cruz is to egocentric, self centered, and full of himself to actually believe that. I can really see him thinking to himself that he's the better positioned candidate so therefore Rand should not run and Ted should. I hope and pray that Team Rand can convince him he can have a nice cozy spot in the Paul administration should he decide not to run and endorse Rand.
erowe1
12-14-2013, 05:49 PM
I was thinking the same thing, but the article I read today suggested otherwise to even my surprise. I'm not sure who these big money people are, or if camp Huckabee was just making shit up, but they were saying they've been approached by big money to run this time and they'll back him. That's supposedly why Huckabee was giving it serious consideration because he was saying it wouldn't be like last time where he had no money.
If he runs he runs, but imo Huckabee is nothing more than a social conservative democrat and a hardcore democrat at that.
I don't mean that he won't raise a lot of funds. He definitely has the potential to do that. But he won't be the anointee of the banking establishment.
erowe1
12-14-2013, 05:56 PM
I'm trying to think positive. I know Cruz' dad is a pastor and supposedly hit it off well with the Iowa pastors organization or whatever they call themselves so there's reason to believe they'll be somewhat loyal or at least some to Cruz. My hope is with Huckabee, Cruz, and Santorum that they'll really take this powerful bloc of voters in Iowa and minimize their affect due to be so diluted.
If Huckabee runs, I don't think Santorum will be a factor.
But still, a problem with the way you put it is that it won't just be those candidates dividing up that block. Rand will just be another candidate taking only a chunk of that voting block, rather than all of it. And Rand needs the bulk of the religious right. If that whole block gets divided up between Huckabee, Cruz, and Rand, then that will just allow an establishment moderate to win the caucuses with the support of the party leaders, while the conservatives fail to unite behind someone.
And to make it worse, if there's not some other establishment candidate to fill that role, then the party leaders would be able to unite their forces behind Huckabee or Santorum. You can be sure they won't back Rand. And in that case winning with only a fraction of the conservative wing of the party would be impossible.
anaconda
12-14-2013, 06:28 PM
Does the GOP want to win?
The people pulling the strings don't care which party is in power.
anaconda
12-14-2013, 06:30 PM
But he won't be the anointee of the banking establishment.
Why not?
heavenlyboy34
12-14-2013, 06:56 PM
Even though it's a rigged contest (as always), teh Huckster always seemed to appeal to teh GOP base types. I doubt Rand would win, but if he did it would be extremely by an extremely narrow margin.
erowe1
12-14-2013, 06:59 PM
Why not?
Because he's too much of a social conservative.
Dianne
12-14-2013, 07:24 PM
Does the GOP want to win?Can a true, modern, not TOTALLY socially but seriously fiscally conservative candidate win over a majority after 8 years of OBAMA, and 8 years of BUSH?Is this candidate gonna be another Bush? Another McCain? Romney?These are the kind of questions people should be asking themselves by the time the primaries are about to start. Our job should be convincing that RAND IS AND WILL BE DIFFERENT.
NO, the GOP does not want to win. There are more democrats in the GOP, than republicans. The party has been completely infiltrated by Liberals, fakes, RINO's. Until people wake up, and vote these McConnell, Boehnner, McCain, Graham liberals out of there... just to name a few ... there will never again be a republican party.
The Congress could have had Obama impeached months ago. In-fact, insiders say Obama has gone through serious crying episodes at the White House.. depression saying he is going to be impeached. We have about 10 people in the Congress who would do it.. The rest are just a bunch of boozed up, drug addicts that worry only about receiving their paycheck. GOP is in bigggggggggggggggggggg trouble.
Dianne
12-14-2013, 07:27 PM
NO, the GOP does not want to win. There are more democrats in the GOP, than republicans. The party has been completely infiltrated by Liberals, fakes, RINO's. Until people wake up, and vote these McConnell, Boehnner, McCain, Graham liberals out of there... just to name a few ... there will never again be a republican party.
The Congress could have had Obama impeached months ago. In-fact, insiders say Obama has gone through serious crying episodes at the White House.. depression saying he is going to be impeached. We have about 10 people in the Congress who would do it.. The rest are just a bunch of boozed up, drug addicts that worry only about receiving their paycheck. GOP is in bigggggggggggggggggggg trouble.
I forgot to say with Congress at a 6% approval rating; GOP doesn't give a damn about that either. Boehner already promised Piglosi that he will pass amnesty in 2014; and she has relayed that to her bimbo's. Once amnesty is passed, there will never be another republican President. Boehner has to GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!! He should have been gone 20 years ago.
rich34
12-14-2013, 10:10 PM
But still, a problem with the way you put it is that it won't just be those candidates dividing up that block. Rand will just be another candidate taking only a chunk of that voting block, rather than all of it. And Rand needs the bulk of the religious right. If that whole block gets divided up between Huckabee, Cruz, and Rand, then that will just allow an establishment moderate to win the caucuses with the support of the party leaders, while the conservatives fail to unite behind someone.
.
I see what you're saying. Here I'm just referring to Iowa alone. I think if Rand can take a chunk of that voting bloc in Iowa he'll be in good shape. The social cons Rand will need on his side once the weeding out process starts to occur. But the social cons alone aren't enough to get it done. The establishment backed McCain while the social cons ran with Huckabee in 2008, but he still couldn't overcome them. I know Romney was still in it take a portion of them, but I see Rand appealing to all groups within the republican party rather than simply having this group or that group. That's why I think the party is limiting the flippin debates in 2016 because they know what Rand is capable of. They saw the Rand/Grayson debates, likewise Rand/Conway. They know they have to limit his exposure to a large audience like those that will be watching the debates. For this reason I fear they'll try and give Rand the Ron treatment. I don't think it'll be as bad, but even the questions they ask him I see as possibly being the irrelevant type. I hated when they asked Ron those types of questions, or when here he was the only damn Dr. on stage and they never asked him a healthcare question lest the logic/intelligence that flowed out of that man's mouth made sense to people. Good for Rand he's still young and assertive, I don't see Rand taking the BS they put Ron through. They do that BS and there might just be a Reagan type moment/comment that will light a fire under people.
GunnyFreedom
12-14-2013, 10:54 PM
Don't get your hopes up guys because Rand will only be a one term senator as long as he has the same stance on immigration he has at the moment. When the majority of democrats in Kentucky and nationally are to the left of you on immigration, you have no hope. Conservative voters are extremely against amnesty. Immigration issue is 100 times more important to them than social issue. Rand will get beat by everybody on national GOP primary and will lose his senate seat to tea party primary challenger easily. If Rand wakes up from his comma and changes his mind like Rubio, he will be unbeatable.
Rand Paul is to the right of 70% of the GOP Congressional Caucus on immigration, which caucus enjoys a 95% re-election rate. If the far right is stupid enough to re-elect Grahamnesty and McCain, but freak out over someone 4x stronger just because he isn't perfect, then frankly they deserve the socialist hell they are bringing down around themselves.
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