Rasmussen 2016 GOP Primary Poll

[z9000]

1000 Likely Voters


Christie 22
Paul 20
Bush 12
Rubio 16
Cruz 12
Walker 5

[asurfaholic]

Not bad at all

[rich34]

Actually these are great numbers and I'd bet places like Iowa are still going to give Christie an embarrassing defeat. I'm sure the establishments goal there is to come up with anyone (Ted Cruz) to defeat Rand there and stop the momentum before it gets started. I honestly think a Rand victory there will set the stage for a long hard battle to him winning the nomination.

[Keith and stuff]

That's fantastic news considering all of the positive stories on Christie and all of the negative stories on Paul in the last week!

[Varin]

That's fantastic news considering all of the positive stories on Christie and all of the negative stories on Paul in the last week!

The vast majority of people screaming about the plagiarism thing would never vote for him anyway, most Americans has most likely not even heard about it.

[alucard13mm]

The vast majority of people screaming about the plagiarism thing would never vote for him anyway, most Americans has most likely not even heard about it.

Yeah, but they will keep bringing it up.. like newsletters.

[Varin]

Yeah, but they will keep bringing it up.. like newsletters.

It certainly isn't good but alone I doubt it will have much impact the southern avenger thing was worse. The risk is death by a thousand cuts, he and his staff needs to minimize mistakes.

[TheTyke]

Nice!!

In politics, the opposition will ALWAYS come up with something to attack you with. But there's a real question of whether it's convincing or matters to people. The plagiarism attack comes across as desperate and not that horrifying even if people believed it. They'd probably still be using Aqua Buddha if Conway hadn't lost so badly :P

[anaconda]

Rubio resurgence?

[Shane Harris]

Cruz won't run if Rand does. Give Rand at least 4% of Cruz's 12. He's doing great.

[RP Supporter]

Cruz won't run if Rand does. Give Rand at least 4% of Cruz's 12. He's doing great.

On the other hand, Rubio and Bush won't run together either. Whichever one of them does run could be a significant factor. I'm unsure at present which one will. Bush seems like the stronger candidate in a primary, but one would suspect he and Christie have the same base of support. But I recall hearing that Bush is giving more thought to a run, and the establishment seems to adore him even more than Christie.

From our standpoint, I hope Jeb runs. I think he takes much much more from Christie than he does anyone else. Rubio's star is damaged, but if these numbers are accurate(I highly doubt they are, given how strong he is in this poll with virtually no reason for it) he still has some tea party support.

I also question this poll because it does not include Ryan. He'd be a frontrunner, and I'm still unsure what part of the party he draws the most from.

[Brett85]

Really good considering the plagiarism charges and Christie's huge win.

[Brett85]

It looks like Rubio is making a comeback as Republican voters start to forget about the immigration issue.

[eduardo89]

The thing about these national polls is we have no idea the weight they give each region and state in choosing respondents. If you have a high percentage of people from the northeast and almost no people from the south it's going to give you a very skewed preference towards someone like Christie. I suspect they polled a disproportionate amount of people in Florida to give Rubio such high numbers.

[asurfaholic]

Cruz won't run if Rand does. Give Rand at least 4% of Cruz's 12. He's doing great.

how do you know?

[WD-NY]

Ok, so:


22% (Christie)
12% (Bush)
8% (50% of Rubio)
1% (1/5 of Walker)
---
43% for Moderates + Establishment + Neocons


20% (Paul)
12% (Cruz)
8% (50% of Rubio)
4% (4/5 of Walker)
---
44% for Tea Party + Conservatives

[matt0611]

Wow, that's really really good.

And Christie is at a high-point having just been re-elected too.

[phill4paul]

1k likely voters? ROFL.

[klamath]

Ok, so:






You have rubio's numbers under the wrong column. He is a neoconservative.

[eduardo89]

You have rubio's numbers under the wrong column. He is a neoconservative.

I don't know if I'd call him a neoconservative, he certainly shares their foreign policy but he is quite decent on fiscal issues as well as social conservatism. True neocons like McCain aren't (he sucks on all issues).

[klamath]

I don't know if I'd call him a neoconservative, he certainly shares their foreign policy but he is quite decent on fiscal issues as well as social conservatism. True neocons like McCain aren't (he sucks on all issues).First and formost what defines a Neocon is FOREIGN policy. The belief that the US can istall Goodness around the world at the point of a gun. There hasn't been one of Obama's wars the Rubio didn't attack Obama for not getting involved more. That is neoconservatism...

[eduardo89]

First and formost what defines a Neocon is FOREIGN policy. The belief that the US can istall Goodness around the world at the point of a gun. There hasn't been one of Obama's wars the Rubio didn't attack Obama for not getting involved more. That is neoconservatism...

Neoconservatism is more than just foreign policy, yes that is its defining characteristic but it is not the entirety of the ideology. Neoconservatives favour big government not just abroad but also at home. They support the welfare state, a lot of government regulation as well as intervention into the economy, they reject Hayek's warning about big government, they also don't believe that budget deficits matter. They also tend to be socially liberal or apathetic towards social conservative causes.

[klamath]

Neoconservatism is more than just foreign policy, yes that is its defining characteristic but it is not the entirety of the ideology. Neoconservatives favour big government not just abroad but also at home. They support the welfare state, a lot of government regulation as well as intervention into the economy, they reject Hayek's warning about big government, they also don't believe that budget deficits matter. They also tend to be socially liberal or apathetic towards social conservative causes.True, but pretty much the one area they WILL NOT compromise on is Foriegn policy. They will in a pinch vote for a social conservative but NEVER a non interventionist.

[Anti-Neocon]

To most voters, there is no "neoconservative", or it's a non-issue. It's all about what the perception is in the minds of low information voters. To most, Rubio is an amnesty-supporting Hispanic who was elected by the Tea Party. Little do they know or care about his foreign policy.

[FSP-Rebel]

Just imagine if you saw this poll 6 years ago back during our grind.:eek:

[trey4sports]

Just imagine if you saw this poll 6 years ago back during our grind.:eek:


Im sure i'll have lots of "back in my day" stories to tell all the young guns in '16.

[dude58677]

Im sure i'll have lots of "back in my day" stories to tell all the young guns in '16.

What about the days before Ron Paul ran for President? No one in mainstream talked about getting rid of the income tax, ending the drug war, bringing the troops home(sort of with Iraq), State Nullification, etc. This was mentioned by the Libertarian Party but our candidates were not even in the national debates let alone mentioned by the media and weren't even interviewed. This was also before the DC vs Heller ruling. We always had to hear gun grabber gloat that no gun law was struck down because of second amendment issues.

At that time were going nowhere with the freedom movement. There wasn't even a website for libertarianism and only anti-freedom websites such as quatloos, etc.

[goRPaul]

At that time were going nowhere with the freedom movement. There wasn't even a website for libertarianism and only anti-freedom websites such as quatloos, etc.

I wouldn't go that far. I was a very liberal democrat when I first went to TheAdvocates.org (http://theadvocates.org) in the fall of 2005. It took a while, but logic settled in and I became a libertarian after about six months. Under the celebrities section, Ron Paul was one of the only two congressmen, the other being Jeff Flake (at the time- not anymore!). I love the World's Smallest Political Quiz and I ask all my friends to take it on my smartphone.

So considering my experience, the freedom movement was small and underground, but very much alive. Don't forget how often Ron Paul refers to "The Remnant", the old guard of freedom lovers who have kept it alive for decades, albeit in the shadows. Without them, Ron Paul 2008 & 2012 and Rand Paul 2010 may have never happened.

[anaconda]

Just imagine if you saw this poll 6 years ago back during our grind.:eek:

Yeah. How many folks at Faneuil Hall on 12-16-07 thought they were seeing a soon-to-be Senator giving the pro Ron stump speech that day?

[anaconda]

What happened to Paul Ryan? I thought he was usually getting about 9% in these things...

[mwkaufman]

What happened to Paul Ryan? I thought he was usually getting about 9% in these things...

Last time around Rasmussen only polled five candidates in these polls, and Paul Ryan seems to be indicating he's not considering a run. This definitely boosts Christie and Paul's numbers, but 20% nationally is a huge milestone for Rand Paul and the thread title should really be "RAND 20% NATIONALLY" or such.

Rasmussen 10/15/09
29% Huckabee
24% Romney
18% Palin
14% Gingrich
4% Pawlenty

Compared to four years ago, we're not far off from where Romney was, and Romney was a relatively successful 2008 candidate.

[rich34]

What happened to Paul Ryan? I thought he was usually getting about 9% in these things...

I'd say it probably took some of Christie's support and possibly Bush as well. Can't have Rand leading these things to much, just might sway true public opinion. Can't have that now, well at least when it's not in their favor.

[eleganz]

Isn't this good for Rand? If I recall correctly, Rand hasn't peaked 18% yet, right?

[MrGoose]

Last time around Rasmussen only polled five candidates in these polls, and Paul Ryan seems to be indicating he's not considering a run. This definitely boosts Christie and Paul's numbers, but 20% nationally is a huge milestone for Rand Paul and the thread title should really be "RAND 20% NATIONALLY" or such.

Rasmussen 10/15/09
29% Huckabee
24% Romney
18% Palin
14% Gingrich
4% Pawlenty

Compared to four years ago, we're not far off from where Romney was, and Romney was a relatively successful 2008 candidate.
That's pretty good considering this. I'd like it if we could stay comfortable above 20 percent in the months leading up to an announcement.

[Galileo Galilei]

how do you know?

Rick Perry is running from Texas, not Cruz.