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jct74
10-30-2013, 07:44 PM
what is "macro" and how is it calculated -- anyone know? I can't find the answer anywhere else.


US Macro has collapsed at its fastest pace in 8 months over the last 3 weeks... (notice the continual lower highs of US Macro since the recovery...)

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/10/20131025_EOD1_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-25/stocks-gold-soar-macro-slumps

Wadesc
10-30-2013, 07:55 PM
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cili.asp

I think this i what you are looking for. I want to get confirmation this is the same set of numbers though

Edit: nevermind, see next post

ClydeCoulter
10-30-2013, 08:29 PM
Dang, looks like a waveform from some music or instrument. I wonder what it sounds like.

Wadesc
10-30-2013, 08:34 PM
Actually, sorry

http://seekingalpha.com/article/400071-economic-surprise-index-breaks-down

That is the US Macro surprise index, it is an index that calculates the disparity between economic figures that are forecast and what the actual numbers are when they come out.

Note: very strange, I can't pull up this index myself nearly anywhere, not even on bloomberg itself. Found it here though with some interesting info.

http://financialmarketstrading.wordpress.com/2012/05/10/things-i-just-dont-get-citis-economic-surprise-index/

jct74
10-30-2013, 09:10 PM
thanks a lot Wadesc, that was bugging the hell out of me. it definitely is the Citi Economic Suprise Index as the two charts match up exactly.

http://product.datastream.com/economics/gateway.aspx?guid=2139f034-f67d-4608-b11e-834b83aae223&chartname=Citigroup%20U.S.%20economic%20surprise%2 0index&groupname=Growth%20%2F%20activity&owner=ZRTN179&action=REFRESH
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/10/20131025_EOD1_0.jpg

ClydeCoulter
10-30-2013, 09:23 PM
Not exactly @jct, there's something (one or more) in there to cause the phase shift, and some amplitude modification (not accounted for in a phase shift).

dannno
10-30-2013, 09:43 PM
The Composite Index of Leading Indicators is a number that is used by many economic participants to judge what is going to happen in the near future. By looking at the Composite Index of Leading Indicators in the light of business cycles and general economic conditions, investors and businesses can form expectations about what's ahead, and make better-informed decisions.

Ouch.

presence
10-30-2013, 10:10 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/10/20131025_EOD1_0.jpg

Assuming nothing else and strictly on quantitative analysis... I see consolidating pennant formation in that 3 year chart; I'd like to see it further back to say if it was about break up or down; but it is poised for a breakout quantitatively.

Occam's Banana
10-31-2013, 09:41 AM
Dang, looks like a waveform from some music or instrument. I wonder what it sounds like.

Something like this, maybe ... ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TvxkpiD-zw


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TvxkpiD-zw