New NH Poll

[kylejack]

RP holding steady at 8%. Fred's down to 2%. Fred's dead, baby. Fred's dead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/NH_POTUS_Primary_Poll_NOV_28.html

[kylejack]

Q17. Is your opinion of Ron Paul generally favorable or generally unfavorable?

N= 300 100%

Never heard of ................................. 1 ( 1/118) 15 5%

Favorable ...................................... 2 78 26%

Unfavorable .................................... 3 123 41%

Heard of/Undecided ............................. 4 84 28%
That's 28% we can capture.

[Bradley in DC]

Thanks, but this isn't good:

Q17. Is your opinion of Ron Paul generally favorable or generally unfavorable?
N= 300 100%
Never heard of ................................. 1 ( 1/118) 15 5%
Favorable ...................................... 2 78 26%
Unfavorable .................................... 3 123 41%
Heard of/Undecided ............................. 4 84 28%

[kylejack]

Thanks, but this isn't good:

Its not too bad. I expect AT LEAST 41% opposition due to the war issue. Also, some of those "heard of" people are probably really more like "Never Heard Of". People try to save face, even in an anonymous poll. I encountered it frequently when polling, people saying they knew about things they had no clue about.

[kylejack]

Q37. Which candidate would bring the most change to the White House?

N= 600 100%

Hillary Clinton ................................ 01 ( 1/146) 121 20%

Barack Obama ................................... 02 131 22%

John Edwards ................................... 03 35 6%

Mitt Romney .................................... 04 61 10%

Rudy Giuliani .................................. 05 48 8%

John McCain .................................... 06 12 2%

Mike Huckabee .................................. 07 13 2%

Bill Richardson ................................ 08 24 4%

Fred Thompson .................................. 09 8 1%

Ron Paul ....................................... 10 44 7%

Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 11 99 17%

Refused (DO NOT READ) .......................... 12 4 1%

7% said Ron Paul, across the political spectrum. Interesting.

[partypooper]

i don't understand how can we be stuck so low. i understand that there exists a ceiling to the number of people receptive to the message. i am ready to entertain the possibility that, though i hope for the best, the ceiling is too low to lead to the nomination. but how is it possible that it is below 10%?

[mbauer]

Only 9% of those surveyed are under 35 years old...
95% surveyed are white,

[Ivanelterrible]

NH is 95% white.

[jgmaynard]

Interesting about the age... The race ratio seems about right for NH though.
I bet we'd pick up a lot more than that if the age was balanced to NH's population.

JM

[Michigan11]

I think we in this campaign, should not look to deep into these polls that are put out there. We are going to be in for a surprise I am sure of it. Wait untill the first primary in New Hampshire.

Remember are supporters are going to show up at the polls, and bring many people with them. These other candidates are not creating any excitement amongst the people. This election is going to be very different than past elections. Guaranteed.

Most people I feel answering those questions are just choosing a 'Guliani or Romney' to get done with the survey. Most people have not even thought about this primary yet.

Paul supporters are living and breathing this election.

Thanks - Just my opinion.

[rockwell]

DID ANYONE READ THROUGH THE QUESTIONS? WHO DO TRUST MOST TO DRIVE YOUR KIDS TO SCHOOL? WAS this- my caps lock unstuck itself- was this given to retards? What kind of question is that? Why would they ask that? This is a presidential campaign, not a au pair interview.

And go check out the pronounciation cues for the pollsters. BY-Den, OH- Bah-Ma Koo-Sin-Itch

Who'd they hire?

This is why I pay no attention to polls.

[DRV45N05]

These polls are complete BS. Anyone who thinks that Mike Huckabee has almost as much support in New Hampshire as Ron Paul does is flat out delusional. Same is true of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

[tfelice]

I think we in this campaign, should not look to deep into these polls that are put out there. We are going to be in for a surprise I am sure of it. Wait untill the first primary in New Hampshire.

Remember are supporters are going to show up at the polls, and bring many people with them. These other candidates are not creating any excitement amongst the people. This election is going to be very different than past elections. Guaranteed.

Most people I feel answering those questions are just choosing a 'Guliani or Romney' to get done with the survey. Most people have not even thought about this primary yet.

Paul supporters are living and breathing this election.

Thanks - Just my opinion.

Alot of what you state is just hopes & assumptions. Numbers are what we have to go on now, reliable or not, and they are not nearly as good as they should be given the huge amount of cash, the media coverage increase and the Tonight Show appearance. I would be much more comfortable if he was in the top three.

Personally, I think the MSM's project of tying Paul to whacko supporters (truthers, Nazis & now whorehouse owners) has been successful. Fringe candidates can't break 10% and regardless of the ideas of the candidate, if the mainstream of America considers him fringe he won't be able to break through.

[margomaps]

These polls are complete BS. Anyone who thinks that Mike Huckabee has almost as much support in New Hampshire as Ron Paul does is flat out delusional. Same is true of John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

All known evidence points to Paul being around 4th place in NH, with Huckabee a few points (within the margin of error) behind. Who's delusional now? :)

Don't fool yourself into a false and comfortable complacency.

[DRV45N05]

All known evidence points to Paul being around 4th place in NH, with Huckabee a few points (within the margin of error) behind. Who's delusional now? :)

Don't fool yourself into a false and comfortable complacency.

I have been to New Hampshire and helped the campaign there myself. I've seen what's going on. Huckabee's presence there pales in comparison to Paul's

[TheIndependent]

i don't understand how can we be stuck so low. i understand that there exists a ceiling to the number of people receptive to the message. i am ready to entertain the possibility that, though i hope for the best, the ceiling is too low to lead to the nomination. but how is it possible that it is below 10%?

9% polled were 18-35. That's two entire age brackets. Its obvious he's being vastly underpolled still.

[RobertJ]

Anyone that thinks Guiliani is the top man for President, I have some beach front property for sale in [insert non-coastal state here].

The media will lie to you and will do it to your face knowing you know they are lying to you. The people that run the big media are the Devil himself.

[jgmaynard]

I have not seen ANY sort of support whatsoever for Huck in NH. Ron, on the other hand, is attracting Republican and Independent alike, including liberal Independents.

My sister - longtime union member, huge liberal, thinks Reagan was a failure - voting for Ron.

Close friend, very successful businessman, wears Che shirts regularly - Supporting Ron.

Brother-in-law - Republican frontrunner supporter - Voting for Ron.

Very apolitical friend who I hadn't talked to in months - I mentioned Ron off-the-cuff to him and he YELLED "I LOVE Ron Paul!" and then went on ten minutes about him.

A friend who ALWAYS supports the frontrunner (so as not to "waste his vote" + he is big on war and gets ALL his news from Fox and Rush) used to say Ron had no chance, and he's not saying it anymore. Last night, he said to me... "Something big is going on with the dollar. I don't know what." - Even he is beginning to realize Ron is his best choice.

And it's not just around me, either. The signs are everywhere - Even the head of the NH Republican Party says that Ron will finish top 3 in NH, John Zogby's saying it, and more.

Ron is going to ROCK NH.

JM

[ashlux]

9% polled were 18-35. That's two entire age brackets. Its obvious he's being vastly underpolled still.

Here's the age distribution for New Hampshire (http://www.psnh.com/SharePDFs/NHFactBook_Demographics.pdf):

2003 Census:

0-17: 26.9%
18-34: 18.5%
35-54: 33.0%
55-74: 15.3%
75+: 5.6%
Median Age: 37.9

2005 PROJECTED:

0-17: 34.8%
18-34: 17.3%
35-54: 31.8%
55-74: 18.8%
75+: 5.7%
Median Age: N/A

2010 PROJECTED:

0-17: 24.8%
18-34: 17.3%
35-54: 28.7%
55-74: 23.5%
75+: 5.7%
Median Age: N/A

[ItsTime]

realclear politics = real clear fraud. Look at where they are polling they might as well have polled in Boston.

Hillsborough ................................... 06 215 36%

Rockingham ..................................... 08 135 23%

[kylejack]

realclear politics = real clear fraud. Look at where they are polling they might as well have polled in Boston.

Hillsborough ................................... 06 215 36%

Merrimack ...................................... 07 80 13%

Rockingham ..................................... 08 135 23%
:rolleyes: This isn't even an RCP poll. They just report on polls.

[ItsTime]

Fair enough....


:rolleyes: This isn't even an RCP poll. They just report on polls.

[jgmaynard]

realclear politics = real clear fraud. Look at where they are polling they might as well have polled in Boston.


I don't know about that - I live in Hillsborough County and my house is so rural the post office won't come this far up the mountain... :)

JM

[mordechai]

This is going to be all about age. If young people in NH turn out and vote Republican, it is going overwhelmingly for Paul. 9% were 18-35 explains these returns. But, this is going to be the dynamic everywhere.

Paul will get probably anywhere from 5%-20% extra depending on how many young people hit the polls, and cast a vote for the Republicans.

[ThePieSwindler]

Um, also remember, this is among republicans. Another poll before this, where Ron was at 8%, also had him at 27% among independants-leaning-republican, behind mitt romney's 31%. Its the republicans at 8% that he needs to improve upon, but he basically has the independant vote he needs to win the state, at this point.

[tfelice]

This is going to be all about age. If young people in NH turn out and vote Republican, it is going overwhelmingly for Paul. 9% were 18-35 explains these returns. But, this is going to be the dynamic everywhere.

Paul will get probably anywhere from 5%-20% extra depending on how many young people hit the polls, and cast a vote for the Republicans.


If the hopes of the campaign are built on younger voters turning out then there isn't much hope. Turnout amongst the 18-24 year old crowd is generally around 25% lower than turnout amongst all eligible age groups. There has to be a massive turnout from the 18-24 group to overcome that deficit. I am looking at data going back to 1972 and the 18-24 turnout is always much lower than the rest of the population, and is never even close.

[mordechai]

There is also the demographic problem. Folks my age exist in considerably smaller numbers than the baby boomers and older folks who are concerned with "getting MY social security check."

And, a significant number of younger folks are going to vote Democrat, all there is to it. We simply just have to beat the odds. All there is to it.

[Kapt Nemo]

DID ANYONE READ THROUGH THE QUESTIONS? WHO DO TRUST MOST TO DRIVE YOUR KIDS TO SCHOOL? WAS this- my caps lock unstuck itself- was this given to retards? What kind of question is that? Why would they ask that? This is a presidential campaign, not a au pair interview.

And go check out the pronounciation cues for the pollsters. BY-Den, OH- Bah-Ma Koo-Sin-Itch

Who'd they hire?

This is why I pay no attention to polls.

They outsourced the calls to India.... :p