Dianne
09-11-2013, 02:06 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/alaska-senate-civil-war-96584.html?hp=t2_3
The GOP civil war may be coming to Alaska — and with it possibly the clearest test of whether the party can unite to win the Senate in 2014 or repeat the kind of bloodletting that proved so costly the past two elections.
A three- or even four-way primary is taking shape in the must-win state for Republicans, with candidates representing every corner of the GOP ideological map aiming to unseat first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Begich.
Joe Miller, whose tea party-fueled Senate bid in 2010 imploded amid an endless string of gaffes and an overzealous private security team that handcuffed a reporter, is trying again. Threatening to split the establishment wing of the party are Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has already entered the race, and Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who is mulling over his plans but is believed to be leaning toward running.
And lingering in the background is Sarah Palin, the perennial wild card, who’s unlikely to jump in but isn’t ruling it out.
(PHOTOS: Sarah Palin’s career)
It all comes against the backdrop of a state Republican Party in turmoil after cycling through three chairmen in a year. A takeover by Ron Paul supporters was reversed by stalwarts of the old guard, leaving some activists bitter but heartening national party operatives focused on the mechanics of a victory operation.
Sen. Mark Begich, who prevailed in 2008 by about 4,000 votes over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens just weeks after his later-overturned felony convictions, should be toast — in theory. But he has relentlessly courted moderate voters and looks as well positioned as a Democrat can be in a red state that Mitt Romney carried by 15 percentage points.
The competition for Begich’s seat — which Republicans need to win under almost any scenario to capture the Senate — is a microcosm of the party’s broader struggles. This is the third election in a row in which establishment favorites in key races face serious challenges from insurgents.
(PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)
But free-for-all primaries in red states such as Georgia and purple states like Iowa pose a serious threat to the GOP’s hopes of regaining the majority. Veteran Republican incumbents from South Carolina and Kentucky also face primary challenges that could force them to the right and allow Democrats to at least make them sweat in the general election.
After losing winnable races from Nevada to Delaware in 2010 and Indiana to Missouri in 2012, Republican leaders in Washington resolved not to blow a third chance to win the upper chamber. But outsiders risk a backlash if they weigh in too actively or early, so they’re choosing more often than not to stay on the sidelines and let things on the ground sort themselves out.
Still, “I don’t expect to see the kind of squabbling we saw in 2010,” Miller said in a phone interview. “I do believe the party will unite behind our nominee in 2014.”
(PHOTOS: Republicans on how to fix the GOP)
The wait-and-see approach is manifesting itself in Alaska. After returning from a six-week deployment to Afghanistan as part of the Marine Reserves, Sullivan is expected to make his intentions clear by the end of September.
A super PAC recently formed to boost Treadwell — the group’s treasurer is Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s former spokesman — but some donors are holding off on giving until Sullivan announces his plans. Among those worried more about electability than ideology, there’s concern that the two could divide votes and open the door for Miller, who has a high negative rating but can win a three-way primary with relatively narrow support. He beat Murkowski in the 2010 primary with just under 56,000 votes.
Palin said on Fox News recently she’s not planning to run “as of this date” but added that “I certainly would never say never in this case.”
This internecine conflict will not be resolved until the primary on Aug. 19, 2014 — just 2½ months before the general election.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/alaska-senate-civil-war-96584.html#ixzz2ecHneLYi
The GOP civil war may be coming to Alaska — and with it possibly the clearest test of whether the party can unite to win the Senate in 2014 or repeat the kind of bloodletting that proved so costly the past two elections.
A three- or even four-way primary is taking shape in the must-win state for Republicans, with candidates representing every corner of the GOP ideological map aiming to unseat first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Begich.
Joe Miller, whose tea party-fueled Senate bid in 2010 imploded amid an endless string of gaffes and an overzealous private security team that handcuffed a reporter, is trying again. Threatening to split the establishment wing of the party are Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has already entered the race, and Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who is mulling over his plans but is believed to be leaning toward running.
And lingering in the background is Sarah Palin, the perennial wild card, who’s unlikely to jump in but isn’t ruling it out.
(PHOTOS: Sarah Palin’s career)
It all comes against the backdrop of a state Republican Party in turmoil after cycling through three chairmen in a year. A takeover by Ron Paul supporters was reversed by stalwarts of the old guard, leaving some activists bitter but heartening national party operatives focused on the mechanics of a victory operation.
Sen. Mark Begich, who prevailed in 2008 by about 4,000 votes over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens just weeks after his later-overturned felony convictions, should be toast — in theory. But he has relentlessly courted moderate voters and looks as well positioned as a Democrat can be in a red state that Mitt Romney carried by 15 percentage points.
The competition for Begich’s seat — which Republicans need to win under almost any scenario to capture the Senate — is a microcosm of the party’s broader struggles. This is the third election in a row in which establishment favorites in key races face serious challenges from insurgents.
(PHOTOS: Senators up for election in 2014)
But free-for-all primaries in red states such as Georgia and purple states like Iowa pose a serious threat to the GOP’s hopes of regaining the majority. Veteran Republican incumbents from South Carolina and Kentucky also face primary challenges that could force them to the right and allow Democrats to at least make them sweat in the general election.
After losing winnable races from Nevada to Delaware in 2010 and Indiana to Missouri in 2012, Republican leaders in Washington resolved not to blow a third chance to win the upper chamber. But outsiders risk a backlash if they weigh in too actively or early, so they’re choosing more often than not to stay on the sidelines and let things on the ground sort themselves out.
Still, “I don’t expect to see the kind of squabbling we saw in 2010,” Miller said in a phone interview. “I do believe the party will unite behind our nominee in 2014.”
(PHOTOS: Republicans on how to fix the GOP)
The wait-and-see approach is manifesting itself in Alaska. After returning from a six-week deployment to Afghanistan as part of the Marine Reserves, Sullivan is expected to make his intentions clear by the end of September.
A super PAC recently formed to boost Treadwell — the group’s treasurer is Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s former spokesman — but some donors are holding off on giving until Sullivan announces his plans. Among those worried more about electability than ideology, there’s concern that the two could divide votes and open the door for Miller, who has a high negative rating but can win a three-way primary with relatively narrow support. He beat Murkowski in the 2010 primary with just under 56,000 votes.
Palin said on Fox News recently she’s not planning to run “as of this date” but added that “I certainly would never say never in this case.”
This internecine conflict will not be resolved until the primary on Aug. 19, 2014 — just 2½ months before the general election.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/alaska-senate-civil-war-96584.html#ixzz2ecHneLYi