Huck rising -- what it means, and why it's good news for Ron Paul

[csen]

As we're seeing now Huckabee has "the big mo" for the moment. Ron Paul had it for a brief instant after 11/5, which was enough to get him from 0-3% in the polls to 5-8% depending on the state. Why is Huckabee rising with no money? It's what we've known all along -- Rudy/Romney/McCain/Thompson is a really soft bunch of frontrunners. Generally speaking, there are four traits that seem to be winners for "mainstream" Republicans -- the war/national security, conservative values, fiscal discipline, and being from the South.

Earlier in the race the only thing that mattered was name recognition and the war. The old big four had the name recognition and numbers in the polls, and all but RP were for the war. It was tough for Huckabee to differentiate himself due to lack of name recognition. As time has gone on we've seen that the frontrunners couldn't pull away, and as we got to know the candidates better Huckabee's charm and personal background came out. It intrigued some and got him into the mid-single digits in Iowa. The real shot in the arm for him, though, was Brownback dropping out, Thompson tanking, and the family values poll which he won in a landslide. Suddenly he didn't have any competition in the evangelical niche, and given the weakness in the field that was enough to get him into double digits, and the momentum has continued from there.

Why do I see this as good news for Ron Paul? First, it changes the media's script -- no longer can they it's Romney and Rudy, Rudy and Romney. They have to tout the underdog Huckabee. It shakes up the status quo, so anyone who was a passive supporter of Rudy/Romney/Thompson/McCain now has to rethink his/her vote. They have to take a closer look at Huckabee to see what he's about. And what are they going to find, as Rudy/Romney's teams are surely putting together? The tax hiking history. Problem is, where are they going to turn? Their candidates are dropping in the polls, and as we know all too well, people don't like supporting someone who "can't win." Still, they're going to be searching for a fiscally conservative alternative to Huck. And some, not all, are going to notice Ron Paul's momentum, and join us in a bid to stop Huckabee.

So the longer Huckabee's momentum continues, as long as he doesn't completely pull away, which I don't think he will due to lack of money and his tax hiking history, the more it gives us a chance to steal the really undecided voters away from the rest of the field as they decide a real fiscal conservative is more important than the war.

[jacmicwag]

I agree. As the primary season moves into Super Tuesday, we need all five of the so-called Top Tier splitting votes and staying somewhat even. The best scenario for Iowa is for Mitt to win though. This way Huck doesn't get all the publicity as he comes in second as predicted. If Ron makes it to the three position, his sudden rise is the big story out of Iowa. In effect, we win Iowa by coming in third.

[AlexMerced]

I agree, though I'm hoping the myspace interview willbring mccain back a big cause I want to vote split even among the 5.

[JimDude]

I can see the headlines now: "Huckabee upsets and wins Iowa. 5 days later, Ron Paul wins New Hamshire. Entire GOP are left scrambling"

[J Free]

Huckabee's rise is NOT good news for Ron Paul. Rather it should be a lesson. He has been able to achieve - with virtually no money - poll numbers that far surpass what we have been able to achieve. Meanwhile, we RP supporters are waving signs, trying to play the big-money fundraising game, bitching about bobbleheads on TV, arguing with already-decided and already-hostile neocons, talking to anti-war Dem friends and trying to get them to switch parties, and a whole string of rather useless activities.

The reason Huckabee has risen in the polls is because his supporters have leveraged their personal social networks among undecided Republicans (mostly among churches). His supporters are not sitting on the fence wondering about third-party runs. They are not sitting on the fence wondering whether they can really become Republicans and say so publicly.

So Huckabee is picking up the undecided vote among Republicans. And Ron Paul's support is still being dismissed as outside the party, uninterested in the party, hostile to the party itself (rather than a segment of it). Hence Ron Paul can be dismissed as not having a chance to win the Republican nomination.

The problem is not Ron Paul. The problem is not particular issues. The problem is us.

[Badger Paul]

Huckabee winning Iowa would shatter Romney's camapaign, soften him up for New Hampshire. But RP has to at least finish third in Iowa to set-up New Hampshire and beyond.

[robofx]

What possible reason would the fat, corn-fed Iowa Communists (the farmer crowd that's addicted to fedgov welfare subsidies - which is the majority vote in Iowa) have for voting for a candidate who promises he will do everything in his power to cut-off their welfare checks & make them go fend for themselves??

[Ethek]

What possible reason would the fat, corn-fed Iowa Communists (the farmer crowd that's addicted to fedgov welfare subsidies - which is the majority vote in Iowa) have for voting for a candidate who promises he will do everything in his power to cut-off their welfare checks & make them go fend for themselves??

The biggest subsidy collectors are cooperate mega farms. Most small farms are hamstrung by one regulation after another. Trade organizations limit markets for crops. I think most farmers would be thrilled with Ron.

[mconder]

I might also point out that Huck is horrible on immigration. If his views on immigration get out to enough people fast enough, I believe it could kill it for him.

[RonPaulStreetTeam]

Two Buck Huck does not stand a chance to Ron Paul.

You may think Huck is rising but he is not.
They are forging a wave to make it seem like there IS another option other then Rudy Romeny.

They KNOW people will stray from them so they have to use huck as the gainer here.

They don't want people to know everyone is really going to Ron Paul.

Huck support is FAKE. Media created.

[F3d]

....

[Dave Wood]

Huckabee's rise is NOT good news for Ron Paul. Rather it should be a lesson. He has been able to achieve - with virtually no money - poll numbers that far surpass what we have been able to achieve. Meanwhile, we RP supporters are waving signs, trying to play the big-money fundraising game, bitching about bobbleheads on TV, arguing with already-decided and already-hostile neocons, talking to anti-war Dem friends and trying to get them to switch parties, and a whole string of rather useless activities.

The reason Huckabee has risen in the polls is because his supporters have leveraged their personal social networks among undecided Republicans (mostly among churches). His supporters are not sitting on the fence wondering about third-party runs. They are not sitting on the fence wondering whether they can really become Republicans and say so publicly.

So Huckabee is picking up the undecided vote among Republicans. And Ron Paul's support is still being dismissed as outside the party, uninterested in the party, hostile to the party itself (rather than a segment of it). Hence Ron Paul can be dismissed as not having a chance to win the Republican nomination.

The problem is not Ron Paul. The problem is not particular issues. The problem is us.

I might point out one thing to you............The MSM has never called Huck or his supporters "Kooks" "Whack jobs" "Fringe" "Insane" "Not Republican" on and on!!!!

If your church has to tell you who to vote for, then two things need to happen:

1) END ALL TAX EXEMTIONS TO ALL CHURCHES....THEY CAN FEND FOR THEMSELVES.
2) ANY CHURCH OR RELIGIOUS ORGANISATION FOUND TO HAVE INVESTMENTS IN ANY COMPANIES SUPPORTED BY OR TIED TO THEIR CANDIDATE OF CHOICE WILL HAVE THOSE ASSETS FROZEN FOR UP TO TWO YEARS AFTER THE ELECTION TO ASSURE NO FOUL PLAY.

Sorry for the caps but this ticks me off......it is NOT our fault.

[FreedomLover]

Huckabee's rise is NOT good news for Ron Paul. Rather it should be a lesson. He has been able to achieve - with virtually no money - poll numbers that far surpass what we have been able to achieve. Meanwhile, we RP supporters are waving signs, trying to play the big-money fundraising game, bitching about bobbleheads on TV, arguing with already-decided and already-hostile neocons, talking to anti-war Dem friends and trying to get them to switch parties, and a whole string of rather useless activities.

The reason Huckabee has risen in the polls is because his supporters have leveraged their personal social networks among undecided Republicans (mostly among churches). His supporters are not sitting on the fence wondering about third-party runs. They are not sitting on the fence wondering whether they can really become Republicans and say so publicly.

So Huckabee is picking up the undecided vote among Republicans. And Ron Paul's support is still being dismissed as outside the party, uninterested in the party, hostile to the party itself (rather than a segment of it). Hence Ron Paul can be dismissed as not having a chance to win the Republican nomination.

The problem is not Ron Paul. The problem is not particular issues. The problem is us.

This is a very good post, except for the last part (Although you are essentially correct). Ron Paul himself assured his outsider status by running against the mainstream of the GOP and making the IRS, the Fed, and strict non-intervensionism his top issues, when the majority of americans have no real grounding on the subjects. The way he was running his campaign basically necessitated a large grassroots phenomenom if he was to ever have a chance.

The grassroots is reflective of his own outsider status...most ron paul supporters probably haven't been GOP members longer than a year (if that). Therefore, when you have primaries where the majority of voters tend to be the consistent super-voting republicans with friends like them, the constituencies that ron paul preaches to and the others preach to don't match up. This explains why RP is in the single digits in most polls and why in places that have open primaries with many independent voters (such as NH) he's moving up fast.

[csen]

This is a very good post, except for the last part (Although you are essentially correct). Ron Paul himself assured his outsider status by running against the mainstream of the GOP and making the IRS, the Fed, and strict non-intervensionism his top issues, when the majority of americans have no real grounding on the subjects. The way he was running his campaign basically necessitated a large grassroots phenomenom if he was to ever have a chance.

When RP started his campaign I don't think he really thought he had a chance. It doesn't seem like he really had a strategy for winning; the goal was just to get in some TV debates, launch a website and see what happens. Now he's got money, mid-upper single digits in the polls, and yet his rhetoric hasn't changed -- the speeches are still all more or less the same, and he still acts astonished that he's doing this well. We all wish he could do things somewhat differently, but for me I wish he'd pay attention to the issues voters care about and really focus on those. I love the gold standard stuff but at some point you've gotta explain how your message fits into the precise concerns that people have. The message doesn't have to change but just focus it a little more. I wish he'd act a little more like a frontrunner.

[J Free]

I might point out one thing to you............The MSM has never called Huck or his supporters "Kooks" "Whack jobs" "Fringe" "Insane" "Not Republican" on and on!!!!

Yeah. I must have missed the 30-year love fest between the MSM and the religious right. And BTW - many RP supporters AREN'T Republican - and many who have registered GOP are very much on the fence about that. We are NOT plunging in, making the leap -- and thus making change happen. On that particular point, the MSM is - unfortunately - accurate. Which was precisely the point I was making about what WE need to do.


If your church has to tell you who to vote for, then two things need to happen:

1) END ALL TAX EXEMTIONS TO ALL CHURCHES....THEY CAN FEND FOR THEMSELVES.
2) ANY CHURCH OR RELIGIOUS ORGANISATION FOUND TO HAVE INVESTMENTS IN ANY COMPANIES SUPPORTED BY OR TIED TO THEIR CANDIDATE OF CHOICE WILL HAVE THOSE ASSETS FROZEN FOR UP TO TWO YEARS AFTER THE ELECTION TO ASSURE NO FOUL PLAY.

Sorry for the caps but this ticks me off......it is NOT our fault.

You might want to read the First Amendment sometime. It's in that Constitution thingie that that guy Ron Paul keeps droning on about.:rolleyes:

[scrosnoe]

Huckabee's rise is NOT good news for Ron Paul. Rather it should be a lesson. He has been able to achieve - with virtually no money - poll numbers that far surpass what we have been able to achieve. Meanwhile, we RP supporters are waving signs, trying to play the big-money fundraising game, bitching about bobbleheads on TV, arguing with already-decided and already-hostile neocons, talking to anti-war Dem friends and trying to get them to switch parties, and a whole string of rather useless activities.

The reason Huckabee has risen in the polls is because his supporters have leveraged their personal social networks among undecided Republicans (mostly among churches). His supporters are not sitting on the fence wondering about third-party runs. They are not sitting on the fence wondering whether they can really become Republicans and say so publicly.

So Huckabee is picking up the undecided vote among Republicans. And Ron Paul's support is still being dismissed as outside the party, uninterested in the party, hostile to the party itself (rather than a segment of it). Hence Ron Paul can be dismissed as not having a chance to win the Republican nomination.

The problem is not Ron Paul. The problem is not particular issues. The problem is us.

could not agree more! (it is not necessarily true / many supporting Ron Paul have been Republicans forever, but perception is the key here and something that must be addressed rapidly IMO)

[DRV45N05]

I agree with the person who made this thread. Huckabee's momentum will get killed after people start finding out about his record on taxes, and I'm sure Romney will help people find out about it. But Ron is getting tons of momentum in his own right. The only reason why Huckabee is getting buzz now is because of his Iowa performance so far; but the reason he's performing well is because he's sinking everything he has into Iowa.

[J Free]

This is a very good post, except for the last part (Although you are essentially correct). Ron Paul himself assured his outsider status by running against the mainstream of the GOP and making the IRS, the Fed, and strict non-intervensionism his top issues, when the majority of americans have no real grounding on the subjects. The way he was running his campaign basically necessitated a large grassroots phenomenom if he was to ever have a chance.

The grassroots is reflective of his own outsider status...most ron paul supporters probably haven't been GOP members longer than a year (if that). Therefore, when you have primaries where the majority of voters tend to be the consistent super-voting republicans with friends like them, the constituencies that ron paul preaches to and the others preach to don't match up. This explains why RP is in the single digits in most polls and why in places that have open primaries with many independent voters (such as NH) he's moving up fast.

I agree with one implication of what you're saying. RP will never poll high among the supervoter, primary-involved, establishment GOP - because he is against it. But there is a huge GOP world out there.

In thinking of ourselves as Republican, it does not mean we pucker up for the GOP establishment. It means we understand that the only way to get rid of them and take over the party is from the inside. And for that we will need other allies (who might not agree on everything -- esp the national stuff) in the GOP. As long as we personally hedge about "third-party run", we avoid coming to that realization about change.

[Bossobass]

The reason Huckabee has risen in the polls is because his supporters have leveraged their personal social networks among undecided Republicans (mostly among churches). His supporters are not sitting on the fence wondering about third-party runs. They are not sitting on the fence wondering whether they can really become Republicans and say so publicly.


This is simply not correct. MH's sudden rise in the 'polls' is due to the recent love affair between his campaign and the MSM, nothing more.

Closer investigation into MH's past record would easily shoot down his 'rising star', but I don't expect to see much of that in the MSM.

Bosso

[dsentell]

Two Buck Huck does not stand a chance to Ron Paul.

You may think Huck is rising but he is not.
. . . .

They don't want people to know everyone is really going to Ron Paul.

Huck support is FAKE. Media created.


I am in complete agreement that Huck is media created. Huck's contributions just do not support the proposition that he is top tier or making a big rise . . .

[quickmike]

in 88 Pat Robertson finished first in the ames straw poll and placed second in the primaries in Iowa but didnt do well in the rest of the country. Iowa is all the Huckster has going for him. I think its a bunch of religious zealots that are going for him in Iowa and not much else. Pandering to the religious right only gets you so far in this country.

Nothing to worry about from him. I think the real threat is Romney for the time being.

[VoteRonPaul2008]

this is not good news for Paul, Hucakbee sets up Romney and then that lowlife Giuliani wins the nomination...

[austin356]

Two Buck Huck does not stand a chance to Ron Paul.

You may think Huck is rising but he is not.
They are forging a wave to make it seem like there IS another option other then Rudy Romeny.

They KNOW people will stray from them so they have to use huck as the gainer here.

They don't want people to know everyone is really going to Ron Paul.

Huck support is FAKE. Media created.



To say Taxabee is not raising is just not true.

Supposedly you are the street team. If you got on the streets here you would see the Huckster is a very large threat.

While I recognize he is rising, it is my argument that such is a good thing. 6 candidates in the 10s means Ron's chances are much greater than 2 candidates in the 20s/30s.

[J Free]

I think people are forgetting what the real value of IA and NH are. They weed out the field. They don't select anyone.

After NH, I expect there will be four men standing - Ron, Huck, Rudy, and Mitt. Two of them depend on having "momentum" - Ron and Huck. Possibly Mitt too.

Every Prez race - like every horse race (and that is how the media views this) - needs one - AND ONLY ONE - candidate with momentum. The media wants binary - frontrunner and challenger. Everything else is confusion. We all know that Ron is not the first or the second choice of the media to be that "momentum" candidate. Nor however, will the media be able to trumpet a "momentum" candidate if it is transparently false. That "momentum" candidate will be the beneficiary of 100% of that part of the GOP that focuses on "winnability", "bandwagon", etc. That is worth 10-20% of the "core" GOP (the part that is polled) and even higher of the rest.

The threat of Huck is that he becomes that "momentum" candidate and that we have no response. So either we have to do much better in New Hampshire than Huck does in Iowa. Or we RP supporters have to be almost ENTIRELY within the GOP at that point - in thought as well as registration - working on local Republicans to immunize them against the media tactic at that point.

The challenge is for us.

[Lacrosseus]

Go Huck GO!

Let Mitt and Ruddy at Huck attack each other -- tonight and for the next several weeks. Huck has no staying power but makes the other two look weak and desperate. Let them lower themselves while we work harder to raise up Ron.

Hucks quick rise will surely lead to a quick fall, and we need to pick his support up when they realize Huck isn't the savior they have been told he was.