Rasmussen Iowa Poll -- Huck surges past Romney, Paul up to 5%

[csen]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/iowa/republican_iowa_caucus

Huck 28%
Romney 25%
Rudy 12%
Fred 11%
Paul 5%
McCain 4%
Tancredo 4%

Huge gain for Huck, drop for Romney, Rudy, Fred, and McCain, and 1 point rise for RP. This is the first poll that Huck has led, and the first with RP alone in 5th place.

[Adamsa]

Dammnit Tancredo, Just Support Ron Already.

[Dave Wood]

I am a little alarmed by this.....dont we have a bigwig campaigner on the payroll in Iowa?

It doesnt seem like anything is happening in that state. We have lived in 5th place since the straw poll????

Can we afford a 5th place finish there? Maybe we can but we better start making progress elsewhere.

[me3]

Drew Ivers. I've been very surprised more was not put into Iowa.

But all is not lost. Now is when Romney will start attacking Huckabee.

[csen]

I am a little alarmed by this.....dont we have a bigwig campaigner on the payroll in Iowa?

It doesnt seem like anything is happening in that state. We have lived in 5th place since the straw poll????

Can we afford a 5th place finish there? Maybe we can but we better start making progress elsewhere.

I think we'll finish higher than 5th. Look at the trend since the last poll:

Huck +12%
RP +1%
McCain -2%
Fred -3%
Rudy -3%
Romney -4%

We're gaining...albeit slowly. More importantly, though, the rest of the pack is coming back to us.

[csen]

Drew Ivers. I've been very surprised more was not put into Iowa.

But all is not lost. Now is when Romney will start attacking Huckabee.

Exactly. Rudy and Romney are attacking each other. Now the barbs are going to come for Huck. This keeps everyone from getting momentum and buys us more time. Really, really need a 10% somewhere soon though (hopefully NH).

[Arklatex]

Well, I'd rather have Huckabee winning a state than another one for Romney or Gulliani. Although I wish Paul was leading, some fragmentation doesn't hurt us, it helps.

[Dave Wood]

I think we'll finish higher than 5th. Look at the trend since the last poll:

Huck +12%
RP +1%
McCain -2%
Fred -3%
Rudy -3%
Romney -4%

We're gaining...albeit slowly. More importantly, though, the rest of the pack is coming back to us.


arghhh, Huck stole his 12% from the others but I dont see how that is going to help us. A little frustrated about this......:confused:

[csen]

arghhh, Huck stole his 12% from the others but I dont see how that is going to help us. A little frustrated about this......:confused:

Without knowing a thing about the mentality of Iowans, are Rudy/Fred/McCain supporters going to turn out when they know it's a two-man race between Huck and Romney? We know how little real support they have. It seems reasonable that we could end up seeing Romney/Huck split 60-70% of the vote, RP come in with 10-15%, and everyone else split the rest due to the dynamics of the race, trends, and passion of supporters.

[Badger Paul]

Actually this poll shows we've gained support since the last one we did. Plus, it shows Thompson and Guliani and McCain dropping. That means we have an excellent chance of finishing in the top three which is where we want to be before New Hampshire. And remember once again, the poll sample is of hardcore Republicans. Don't forget we're tyring to bring a lot of new voters into the process pollsters aren't going to pick-up.

Remember too this is a caucus not a primary and caucuses are about intensity of support and that we know we have over Thompson or Guliani.

[JMann]

Paul needs to finish 3rd in Iowa. I'm sure the poll numbers show a lot of soft support for Freddy and Rudy which means there is a good chance the final order is Huck, Willard and Paul. I top 3 finish in Iowa continues the 'big mo' into New Hampshire.

[Dave Wood]

I for one would be happy with a 2nd or 3rd in that state, I think 5th would be bad for us, it would be spun like "RP couldnt make any progress at all in Iowa"

[Cindy]

Goes to show that dumping mega millions into a state doesn't guarantee you a win if the people don't like the message of the candidate or the candidate.

Also goes to show how WIDE open the field is for the Republicans even still. Hucks numbers in Iowa are not consistant with any other state at all. Niether are Giulianis. And Paul is ahead of McCain there.

There is plenty of room for us to take this primary election nationally if we keep focussed and organized on getting Pauls message out. It's a great one and it seems easy to convert people to Paul when they hear it and fully understand it.

The media seems really confused about who exactly the Republican voters are rallying behind. Thompson is Leading South Carolina, yet is at 11% in Iowa.

It really is a bunch of slop out there in the Republican field. That is great for us that it is!!!

[DRV45N05]

5% is a big gain from where we were even a month and a half ago. And I personally believe his support is way underestimated.

[Lord Xar]

the question MUST be asked, HOW is huckaberry surging with limited monies?

How is this possible?

One needs to look at what is happening.

[RevolutionSD]

I thought we were at 6% in Iowa, isn't 5% a drop?

Let's get 15 RP blimps flying around Iowa EVERY DAY and take this thing!

[Lord Xar]

Goes to show that dumping mega millions into a state doesn't guarantee you a win if the people don't like the message of the candidate or the candidate.

Also goes to show how WIDE open the field is for the Republicans even still. Hucks numbers in Iowa are not consistant with any other state at all. Niether are Giulianis. And Paul is ahead of McCain there.

There is plenty of room for us to take this primary election nationally if we keep focussed and organized on getting Pauls message out. It's a great one and it seems easy to convert people to Paul when they hear it and fully understand it.

The media seems really confused about who exactly the Republican voters are rallying behind. Thompson is Leading South Carolina, yet is at 11% in Iowa.

It really is a bunch of slop out there in the Republican field. That is great for us that it is!!!

I don't know. Huckabee is such a hack. I mean, why isn't Romney/McCain attacking him for his obvious shortcomings.. I mean that guy has SOOO MANY!!! Hopefully, they will start flinging dirt at each other...

[Mithridates]

arghhh, Huck stole his 12% from the others but I dont see how that is going to help us. A little frustrated about this......:confused:

Well, since he took his support from everybody except Ron Paul, that shows that there's a confused base that doesn't really know what it likes and is trying out one candidate after another without success. When one candidate little different from the rest begins to surge, it shows a lack of morale overall more than anything else.

The other good thing is that each of the candidates near the top have huge egos and aren't likely to back down and support another candidate until they're really sure that it's time to throw in the towel. They're also willing to dredge up dirt on the others to do it, and in the meantime RP's campaign will continue to grow.

And hopefully Tancredo will give up and support RP.

[Mithridates]

the question MUST be asked, HOW is huckaberry surging with limited monies?

How is this possible?

It's called "oh man, all the rest were duds, surely this one's got to take?! Please?"

[csen]

I thought we were at 6% in Iowa, isn't 5% a drop?

Let's get 15 RP blimps flying around Iowa EVERY DAY and take this thing!

different polls -- RP was 4% in the last Rasmussen Poll. This way it's apples to apples.

[literatim]

the question MUST be asked, HOW is huckaberry surging with limited monies?

How is this possible?

One needs to look at what is happening.

The local talk show hosts in Iowa love him so he is being propped up.

[Lord Xar]

The local talk show hosts in Iowa love him so he is being propped up.

I am surprised Romeny isn't attacking huckaberries HORRIBLE record on Taxes, Illegal immigration.. I mean --- This is huge.. Romeny should be blasting him...

[RevolutionSD]

different polls -- RP was 4% in the last Rasmussen Poll. This way it's apples to apples.

Cool!

[RevolutionSD]

I am surprised Romeny isn't attacking huckaberries HORRIBLE record on Taxes, Illegal immigration.. I mean --- This is huge.. Romeny should be blasting him...

Maybe that's the way they're orchestrating this.
Huck takes Iowa, Romney takes NH, Giuliani takes a bunch of states and picks one of them (likely Huck) as his running mate and they can be war mongers together.

Hopefully this plan backfires and RP takes 2nd in Iowa and 1st in NH and it's GAME ON for the rest of the states!

[Liberty]

the question MUST be asked, HOW is huckaberry surging with limited monies?

How is this possible?

One needs to look at what is happening.

He's been getting mega MSM coverage, support from an afternoon WHO radio announcer, and support from Christian groups. Is Chuck Norris popular in Iowa?

[jacmicwag]

If Huck slips to second in Iowa and Ron gets third, we get all the publicity going into NH. Right now Mitt and Huck are supposed to come in one-two. The big news is Ron Paul coming out of nowhere to take third. The perfect storm is starting to brew.

[Goldwater Conservative]

"Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 52%."

That's the magic number. 39% favorable for the only anti-war GOP candidate, in a state that 51% of Republicans oppose the war. We CAN hit numbers competitive with Mitt and Huck.

Also, the margin of error is 3.5%. Rudy and Fred are not that far away. Third place makes us at least the second biggest story coming out of Iowa.

[csen]

"Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 52%."

That's the magic number. 39% favorable for the only anti-war GOP candidate, in a state that 51% of Republicans oppose the war. We CAN hit numbers competitive with Mitt and Huck.

Also, the margin of error is 3.5%. Rudy and Fred are not that far away. Third place makes us at least the second biggest story coming out of Iowa.

Not to mention these favorability numbers are rising. They'll be in the 40s before long.

[Ron LOL]

What the Huck?

This is disturbing to say the least. What about the numbers saying 50%+ of Iowa republicans want the war over within six months?

[azminuteman]

This has to be a little skewed.

Are these results from the 570,000 republicans or from all 1,870,000 voters (obviously a sample of)?
I'm not trying to push the polls in Paul favor but to be fair, there are 600,000 Democrats and 700,000 independents that are part of the voting population.

[shadowhooch]

What the Huck?

This is disturbing to say the least. What about the numbers saying 50%+ of Iowa republicans want the war over within six months?

Probably Obama fans (even though he won't do that).

[philipsantamaria]

Romney at work early on Huckabee

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/huckabee_record

[Ron LOL]

Romney at work early on Huckabee

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/huckabee_record

"It will dilute their support to my benefit" :D