Paul 5% in Iowa--Newest Iowa Poll

[colecrowe]

51% of Republicans favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months...

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_112807.htm

Below are the results of a three-day poll in the state of Iowa. Results are based on telephone interviews with 600 likely Republican cacus goers and 600 likely Democratic cacus goers, aged 18+, and conducted November 23-25, 2007. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5 percentage points.

1. If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were held today between Sam Brownback, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote? (Republicans Only; Names Rotated)
Mitt Romney 26%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Fred Thompson 10%
John McCain 7%
Ron Paul 5%
Tom Tancredo 3%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided 10%

2. Do you see President George W. Bush as a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans Only)
Yes 5%
No 72%
Undecided 23%

3. How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, or undecided? (Republicans Only)
Very Important 53%
Somewhat Important 13%
Not Very Important 5%
Not Important 15%
Undecided 14%

4. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 51%
No 37%
Undecided 12%

5. If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
Hillary Clinton 29%
Barack Obama 29%
John Edwards 23%
Bill Richardson 6%
Joseph Biden 4%
Chris Dodd 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Undecided 7%

6. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Democrats Only)
Yes 85%
No 6%
Undecided 9%

7. When making your selection for a presidential candidate, what are you looking for most in the candidate, charisma, experience, or ideology? (Democrats Only)
Experience 33%
Ideology 29%
Charisma 27%
Undecided 11%

[randolphfuller]

Someone please help me as I must be missing something. Why isn't Iowa ducksoup for Ron.. The caucus process, which I understand means leaving hearth and home on a January winter night in Iowas to stand around a drafty fire house or school cafeteria for as musch as three hours in not always pleasant conflict with yours neighbors and therefore places a high premium not on raw number but on the fervor and level of commitment of you supporters.Iowa was home to Henry Wallace who opposed the ColdWar and H.R.Gross who opposed the Korean War. It should be fullof antiwar sentiment.Yet, the national press although seeming to take him seriously in other locales all agree he has almost no chance of a ood showing inIowa. There was one report that said the Paul supporters felt the situation was so hopeless they weren't making any serious effort. There is obviously some factor at work which I am missing. Anyone who knows please post and feel free to emailme at william3437@sbcglobal.net





S

[rpfreedom08]

Yeah I'm wondering the same thing. How is he doing so bad in iowa? I mean he is for everything those people want! All the other candidates won't start taking troops out till 2013. Something is weird or iowa just sucks.

[tfelice]

With all the money & media attention that has come lately, his numbers should be far greater. I am not a big believer in polls, but seeing one so close to the caucuses with Paul at 5% is very discouraging.

[Dustancostine]

The caucus process, which I understand means leaving hearth and home on a January winter night in Iowas to stand around a drafty fire house or school cafeteria for as musch as three hours in not always pleasant conflict with yours neighbors and therefore places a high premium not on raw number but on the fervor and level of commitment of you supporters


Don't forget they have to walk ten miles in the snow with no shoes to get there!!:D

[RobertJ]

Just because the "media" says something does not make it so...in fact its usually opposite what they say when it comes to Ron Paul.

[azminuteman]

There are 574,000 registered Republicans in the state of Iowa.

There are 600,000 registered Democrats in the state of Iowa.

What we're not told and what isn't polled is the 700,000 registered Independent voters.

[Charles Wilson]

The final results in Iowa will be a big surprise to many. I don't think the polls include most of those that make up Ron Paul supporters -- Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. Also it does not take into consideration the number of those who will actually show up at the polls as opposed to those who merely claim support for a particular candidate. Ron Paul's supporters -- as you know -- will show up whereas some of the others will not. Some estimate that only 10 percent, at maximum, will show up for most of the candidates while up to 50 percent of Ron Paul supporters will show up and vote for Ron Paul. I am very encouraged with the numbers. We shall see, the fat lady has not sung the last song in this race -- far from it.

[drain]

27% of democrats value charisma over ideology and experience? Are you f@$#@ng kidding me?!

we are doomed.

-adrian

[sharedvoice]

Iowa is no where near as important as NH in my opinion. I don't trust fly-by-night polls anyway. Usually they are less scientific than straw polls. The best way measure Paul's success in Iowa is to actually be there first hand and witness what is taking place on the ground. Congressman Paul has a huge following in Iowa. (period)

BTW: TONIGHT IS DEBATE NIGHT !!!

I am expecting a great showdown in FL. Be sure to invite your all your friends out for a drink to watch the debates, and continue to spread the Liberty message to others. :D

[entropy]

Yeah I'm wondering the same thing. How is he doing so bad in iowa? I mean he is for everything those people want! All the other candidates won't start taking troops out till 2013. Something is weird or iowa just sucks.


I think it may have something to do with his policy on government subsidies for farming. He is against subsidies and Iowa has large amounts of agricultural subsidies.

I also think the religious right has not realized how much they should support RP, Iowa has a lot of Christians.

I am Christian and whenever I talk to another believer I always ask them Who Would Jesus Bomb........

[voytechs]

There are 574,000 registered Republicans in the state of Iowa.

There are 600,000 registered Democrats in the state of Iowa.

What we're not told and what isn't polled is the 700,000 registered Independent voters.

Yeah, but we still have to reach those independents.

[MilitaryDave]

Ron Paul led a poll of 2,200 students at Iowa State University (see ISU poll thread). He earned 27% beating Romney's 23%. Ron Paul has real traction in Iowa and we should all know by now to disregard these polls of 200-300 "Likely Republican Voters". Remember "Likely Republican Voters" often means registered Republicans from the last primary season ... these are the stuffed-shirt Republicans who bothered to come out and nominate Bush in 2004 (I've seen it quoted at about 6%)..

[ashlux]

Are independents allowed to vote in the primaries in Iowa? I just read they are allowed to switch parties at the polls, but no idea if they can stay independent and vote in the republican primary.

[JAYCEE]

2 quick points.

1. Polls are never right about Iowa. In 2004, Gephardt was ahead in the polls. Kerry was at about 5% before the vote.

2. Iowa isn't critical for republicans. NH is the critical state for repubs. (Some say that the candidate will be decided in NH.) NH is more libertarian/independent than any other state.

(We're in good shape. Keep giving money.)

[RTsquared]

Someone please help me as I must be missing something. Why isn't Iowa ducksoup for Ron.. The caucus process, which I understand means leaving hearth and home on a January winter night in Iowas to stand around a drafty fire house or school cafeteria for as musch as three hours in not always pleasant conflict with yours neighbors and therefore places a high premium not on raw number but on the fervor and level of commitment of you supporters.Iowa was home to Henry Wallace who opposed the ColdWar and H.R.Gross who opposed the Korean War. It should be fullof antiwar sentiment.Yet, the national press although seeming to take him seriously in other locales all agree he has almost no chance of a ood showing inIowa. There was one report that said the Paul supporters felt the situation was so hopeless they weren't making any serious effort. There is obviously some factor at work which I am missing. Anyone who knows please post and feel free to emailme at william3437@sbcglobal.net
S

From a thread I started (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=42614) earlier today:


3) Craig Shirley is willing to bet money that Ron Paul will overperform in the early primary states (IA, NH, SC). He stated that there is a portion of potential voters who are attracted to his message that still believe the perception of him being a "kook" is out there, and do not wish to admit their support for him to a pollster.

It's a theory I haven't heard advanced as of yet. Moreover, Fritz Wenzel (producer of Zogby's Real America show on POTUS '08) was on earlier defending Zogby's interactive polling methodology, and stated for the world to hear what we already knew: landlines are becoming obsolete.

One thing I'll always remember from Jeff Greenfield's book "Playing to Win" - it's always better to underpromise and overdeliver than the reverse - the expectations game. If the polls underestimate Dr. Paul's support, the story will be how much above expectations Dr. Paul did. It's better to poll at 5% and get 10% of the vote than poll at 25% and get 20% in the early primaries.

[malibu]

Yeah I'm wondering the same thing. How is he doing so bad in iowa? I mean he is for everything those people want! All the other candidates won't start taking troops out till 2013. Something is weird or iowa just sucks.

Nowhere has Rudy Giuliani fallen so fast than in Iowa where people don't buy into a draft-dodger fake Catholic, and Ghouliani's been in low teens after double that support earlier.
McCain is in single digits with Fred now approaching that as well. Romney has very soft support and there are enough undecided still.

Note over 50% of Iowa Republicans (and 85% of Iowa Dems) support Iraq troop withdrawal - these numbers in the stategic vision poll have been consistent for months.

The campaign has perhaps overemphasized Des Moines when the base of RP support may be in the heavily catholic eastern counties of Iowa.
Also, RP leads in campus polls (27% at Iowa State) with Romney a close second among campus young Republicans.

Also, Iowa is a key state for republicans with a very narrow win for Bush43 over Kerry at 49% - 49% in 2004, and have all uncommitted first ballot delegates at the national GOP convention.

[MrCoffee]

From a thread I started (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=42614) earlier today:



It's a theory I haven't heard advanced as of yet. Moreover, Fritz Wenzel (producer of Zogby's Real America show on POTUS '08) was on earlier defending Zogby's interactive polling methodology, and stated for the world to hear what we already knew: landlines are becoming obsolete.

One thing I'll always remember from Jeff Greenfield's book "Playing to Win" - it's always better to underpromise and overdeliver than the reverse - the expectations game. If the polls underestimate Dr. Paul's support, the story will be how much above expectations Dr. Paul did. It's better to poll at 5% and get 10% of the vote than poll at 25% and get 20% in the early primaries.


no - if he overperforms then the big question will be:

"Well, that's great and all, but what we DON'T know is if these votes will translate into votes..."

[Hurricane Bruiser]

no - if he overperforms then the big question will be:

"Well, that's great and all, but what we DON'T know is if these votes will translate into votes..."

Yep, great question, ROFLOLWTCIMH

(Rolling On The Floor Laughing Out Loud With The Constitution In My Hand)

[I Am Weasel]

Why isn't our money being spent to gain these votes? We should have Iowa WON!


*sigh*.. it's not gonna happen though... is it. Just face it, Iowa is lost. Not trying to piss off the forum here, but it's just reality. It's almost December, and RP has come up what, 2% in the polls?

I don't know what else to say.

[Bradley in DC]

Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 52%.

[DRV45N05]

Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 52%.

That number's not as bad as it was.

Winning most of that 39% will be enough to win the Iowa Caucus.

[FreedomLover]

Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 52%.

Among who? Do you have a link to that poll?