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Schifference
08-24-2013, 09:55 AM
all exports to the United States?

willwash
08-24-2013, 09:56 AM
Then China's economy goes under.

As does ours...mutually assured (economic) destruction. one of Glenn Beck's big things.

Pisces
08-24-2013, 09:57 AM
China goes broke? Maybe not but it would be a huge hit to their economy.

jj-
08-24-2013, 10:01 AM
They wouldn't do that. What they might do is stop lending money.

XNavyNuke
08-24-2013, 10:19 AM
They wouldn't do that. What they might do is stop lending money.

Which would effectively collapse the economy. Which would mean no demand for their exports. Same outcome, different process.

XNN

jj-
08-24-2013, 10:20 AM
Which would effectively collapse the economy. Which would mean no demand for their exports. Same outcome, different process.

XNN

The process would be more gradual. It would reduce the exports, not eliminate them, at least until the U.S. rebuilds its infrastructure and produces its own goods.

thoughtomator
08-24-2013, 10:22 AM
Then the value of their $1 trillion in US treasury bonds goes to zero instantly.

China has as dysfunctional and unhealthy a need to sell to us as we have to buy from them. It's like a love-hate relationship from hell.

Schifference
08-24-2013, 10:23 AM
So as Peter Shiff say's China loans us the money so we can purchase their goods. How does China benefit by making tangible goods and us giving them worthless FRN? The US is always trying to hurt other countries with no fly zones and such. Imagine that one day China just decides to go on strike against shipping to the US.

Paulbot99
08-24-2013, 10:28 AM
Right now, it would hurt them, but I have the feeling that they are preparing for the inevitable collapse of the dollar and the subsequent consequences for us, them, and the whole world.

jj-
08-24-2013, 10:29 AM
So as Peter Shiff say's China loans us the money so we can purchase their goods. How does China benefit by making tangible goods and us giving them worthless FRN?

FRN aren't worthless. They will but they aren't.


The US is always trying to hurt other countries with no fly zones and such. Imagine that one day China just decides to go on strike against shipping to the US.

Stopping exports is more like nuking one's own country than putting a fly zone.

Schifference
08-24-2013, 10:33 AM
FRN are worth less every day.

jj-
08-24-2013, 10:34 AM
FRN are worth less every day.

That loss of value is not comparable to the loss of earnings from stopping all exports to the U.S. at once.

pcosmar
08-24-2013, 10:34 AM
No more cheap flags and beer coolies.

Schifference
08-24-2013, 10:41 AM
How will China ever collect after the US Dollar collapse? I have owned several business's and I would rather not sell a product than produce one and give it to someone that doesn't end up paying for it.

jj-
08-24-2013, 10:49 AM
How will China ever collect after the US Dollar collapse? I have owned several business's and I would rather not sell a product than produce one and give it to someone that doesn't end up paying for it.

The money they receive for an export they made today can be spent today.

pacelli
08-24-2013, 09:21 PM
If they cut off exports to the US?

I think there would be a sudden surge in USA-manufactured goods.

I think there would be a sudden surge in Americans practicing homesteading.

I think the oceans would probably be cleaner.

I don't care about the consequences for china.

Pericles
08-24-2013, 09:24 PM
Right now, it would hurt them, but I have the feeling that they are preparing for the inevitable collapse of the dollar and the subsequent consequences for us, them, and the whole world.

They would have to sell all of the shit they make to their own people.

Natural Citizen
08-24-2013, 09:24 PM
I'd be more concerned with them not buying our debt anymore. The people who created that scenario in the first place would start handing over land here with the quickness.

willwash
08-24-2013, 10:38 PM
So as Peter Shiff say's China loans us the money so we can purchase their goods. How does China benefit by making tangible goods and us giving them worthless FRN? The US is always trying to hurt other countries with no fly zones and such. Imagine that one day China just decides to go on strike against shipping to the US.

Frns are nort worthless until the market says they are worthless, and for a variety of reasons it is still the reserve currency of the world. As long as that is th case, chinas dollars have value

tangent4ronpaul
08-24-2013, 11:20 PM
If they cut off exports to the US? I think there would be a sudden surge in USA-manufactured goods.

There is a slight comeback in US manufactured goods, but remember that due to outsourcing and free trade agreements, the US no longer has the machines to make machines. It completely undermined our industrial base.


I think there would be a sudden surge in Americans practicing homesteading.

The vast majority of people that try homesteading who did not grow up on a farm, fail at it. As to micro-homesteading, local regulations have largely killed it in most areas, as there are many places in the country you can't keep goats, chickens, or grow crops on parts of your property like the front yard where the sun is.


I think the oceans would probably be cleaner.

Why?


They would have to sell all of the shit they make to their own people.

Not really... Every time the US places sanctions on a country, a market opens up for them. This is the reason they are expected to overtake us in oil/gas imports by 2017. Where do they get most of their oil? IRAN!!! How would China react if we invaded Iran?... We are already pissing them off by invading some of their best customers and overthrowing their governments.

They also buy stuff up. Like that port last year. About a decade ago, they bought a company that made precision bearings (a strategic material) after promising the US Gvmt they wouldn't move the factory. Immediately after buying it, they packed it up and moved it to China. Said bearings are critical to cruise missiles, F-16 instrumentation and ICBM's. They also buy up and do not export many other strategic materials, like rare earth elements.

The US's top 10 Imports from China:

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html

China’s exports to America amounted to
$444.4 billion or 19% of overall US imports.

1. Electronic equipment: $113.3 billion (487.5B)
2. Machines, engines, pumps: $102.2 billion (376B)
3. Furniture, lighting, signs: $24.8 billion (77.9B)
4. Toys, games: $23.1 billion (Not top 10 China Export)
5. Footwear: $17.9 billion (46.8B)
6. Knit or crochet clothing: $15.6 billion (87.1B)
7. Clothing (not knit or crochet): $15.3 billion (61.2B)
8. Plastics: $13.2 billion (55.2B)
9. Iron or steel products: $10.1 billion (56.2B)
10. Vehicles: $10 billion (55.2B)

The numbers in parentheses are China's total export numbers, from: http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_china_exports.html

Looking at the numbers, for the top 10 the US is responsible for 1/3 to 1/5th of China's exports, depending on category.

Realistically, what would happen if they embargo'd us?
Walmart, K Mart, Sams Club, Costco, all the dollar shops, etc. Would most likely go bankrupt and close.
Clothing and shoes, which are currently generally designed to fail and be non-repairable would become scarce.
So would light bulbs.
In combination with a bad hurricane season, it could cripple the country's infrastructure. Remember Hugo(?). It took out so many transformers that replacements had to be ordered from.... drum roll... wait for it.... CHINA! It took 8 months to get and replace all the downed transformers. What would happen if we couldn't order transformers? Like many things, we sure don't make them in this country any more...
And then there is machine equipment and raw materials, like steel...

So, China holds 1T in US debt. BFD!

GDP for richest countries:
1) USA: 16.238T (up 13.6% from 2008)
2) China: 13.623T (up 65.8% from 2008)
3) India: 5.032T (up 49.4% from 2008)
GDP goes down rapidly from there, but Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Canada, Indonesia (up 44.4%), Turkey, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia (up 42.9%), Taiwan, Poland, Argentina (up 35.8%), South Africa, Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, Columbia, Nigeria (up 52.6%), Philippines (up 31.8%), etc. have ALL seen better percentage increases than the US! There are a bunch more, but it's fair to say that of the top 100 countries, over 75% have seen better economic growth than the US since 2008. See the link for the rest:
http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/index.html

GDP per-capita has a very different ranking. The US is #7 and China is #90!!!

So it's a little more complicated than what you are asking.

So what would happen if China stopped buying our debt?, well, the second largest holder of US debt is Japan and there are others, but some debt would still be bought. Still, it would result in printing more money, more devaluation of the dollar, and less buying power. In short, we are on the fast path to becoming a third world nation.

The main problem is corporations and lobbyists. Their goals are short term - good returns for the stockholders this quarter. This is what drove outsourcing - cheaper labor, being smothered with gvmt regulations on safety, inspections, healthcare, unions, etc.

The only way to fix this is a separation of corporate influence and government.

-t

Schifference
08-25-2013, 01:27 AM
There is a slight comeback in US manufactured goods, but remember that due to outsourcing and free trade agreements, the US no longer has the machines to make machines. It completely undermined our industrial base.



The vast majority of people that try homesteading who did not grow up on a farm, fail at it. As to micro-homesteading, local regulations have largely killed it in most areas, as there are many places in the country you can't keep goats, chickens, or grow crops on parts of your property like the front yard where the sun is.



Why?



Not really... Every time the US places sanctions on a country, a market opens up for them. This is the reason they are expected to overtake us in oil/gas imports by 2017. Where do they get most of their oil? IRAN!!! How would China react if we invaded Iran?... We are already pissing them off by invading some of their best customers and overthrowing their governments.

They also buy stuff up. Like that port last year. About a decade ago, they bought a company that made precision bearings (a strategic material) after promising the US Gvmt they wouldn't move the factory. Immediately after buying it, they packed it up and moved it to China. Said bearings are critical to cruise missiles, F-16 instrumentation and ICBM's. They also buy up and do not export many other strategic materials, like rare earth elements.

The US's top 10 Imports from China:

http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html

China’s exports to America amounted to
$444.4 billion or 19% of overall US imports.

1. Electronic equipment: $113.3 billion (487.5B)
2. Machines, engines, pumps: $102.2 billion (376B)
3. Furniture, lighting, signs: $24.8 billion (77.9B)
4. Toys, games: $23.1 billion (Not top 10 China Export)
5. Footwear: $17.9 billion (46.8B)
6. Knit or crochet clothing: $15.6 billion (87.1B)
7. Clothing (not knit or crochet): $15.3 billion (61.2B)
8. Plastics: $13.2 billion (55.2B)
9. Iron or steel products: $10.1 billion (56.2B)
10. Vehicles: $10 billion (55.2B)

The numbers in parentheses are China's total export numbers, from: http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_china_exports.html

Looking at the numbers, for the top 10 the US is responsible for 1/3 to 1/5th of China's exports, depending on category.

Realistically, what would happen if they embargo'd us?
Walmart, K Mart, Sams Club, Costco, all the dollar shops, etc. Would most likely go bankrupt and close.
Clothing and shoes, which are currently generally designed to fail and be non-repairable would become scarce.
So would light bulbs.
In combination with a bad hurricane season, it could cripple the country's infrastructure. Remember Hugo(?). It took out so many transformers that replacements had to be ordered from.... drum roll... wait for it.... CHINA! It took 8 months to get and replace all the downed transformers. What would happen if we couldn't order transformers? Like many things, we sure don't make them in this country any more...
And then there is machine equipment and raw materials, like steel...

So, China holds 1T in US debt. BFD!

GDP for richest countries:
1) USA: 16.238T (up 13.6% from 2008)
2) China: 13.623T (up 65.8% from 2008)
3) India: 5.032T (up 49.4% from 2008)
GDP goes down rapidly from there, but Russia, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Canada, Indonesia (up 44.4%), Turkey, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia (up 42.9%), Taiwan, Poland, Argentina (up 35.8%), South Africa, Egypt, Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, Columbia, Nigeria (up 52.6%), Philippines (up 31.8%), etc. have ALL seen better percentage increases than the US! There are a bunch more, but it's fair to say that of the top 100 countries, over 75% have seen better economic growth than the US since 2008. See the link for the rest:
http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/index.html

GDP per-capita has a very different ranking. The US is #7 and China is #90!!!

So it's a little more complicated than what you are asking.

So what would happen if China stopped buying our debt?, well, the second largest holder of US debt is Japan and there are others, but some debt would still be bought. Still, it would result in printing more money, more devaluation of the dollar, and less buying power. In short, we are on the fast path to becoming a third world nation.

The main problem is corporations and lobbyists. Their goals are short term - good returns for the stockholders this quarter. This is what drove outsourcing - cheaper labor, being smothered with gvmt regulations on safety, inspections, healthcare, unions, etc.

The only way to fix this is a separation of corporate influence and government.

-t

^^^**This**^^^

Reason
08-25-2013, 01:30 AM
No more cheap flags and beer coolies.

/wrists

enoch150
08-25-2013, 05:02 AM
Cutting off exports to the US won't happen because it would collapse their own economy.

What they might do is cease purchasing US government debt with the money they get from exporting to us. If they wanted to cause the US far greater harm than China itself suffers, they could do that by purchasing US made goods. That would lower our standard of living, cause price inflation, and wreck havoc with the value of the dollar and government finances.

The best scenario for both China and the US would for China to continue exporting to us, but cease purchasing government debt and start investing in the US private sector, building manufacturing plants and such.

tangent4ronpaul
08-25-2013, 05:25 AM
Cutting off exports to the US won't happen because it would collapse their own economy.

BULLSHIT!!!


What they might do is cease purchasing US government debt with the money they get from exporting to us. If they wanted to cause the US far greater harm than China itself suffers, they could do that by purchasing US made goods. That would lower our standard of living, cause price inflation, and wreck havoc with the value of the dollar and government finances.

Purchase US goods to collapse the economy? What kind of drugs are you on? - they sound really good! - you are delusional!


The best scenario for both China and the US would for China to continue exporting to us, but cease purchasing government debt and start investing in the US private sector, building manufacturing plants and such.

Purchasing, gaining control of our infrastructure. That would be TOTALLY AWESOME if they decided to attack us some day... :rolleyes:

-t

eduardo89
08-25-2013, 05:30 AM
Not going to happen. So why bother discussing improbable sinario?

tangent4ronpaul
08-25-2013, 05:36 AM
Not going to happen. So why bother discussing improbable sinario?

Invade Iran and see what happens.

-t

eduardo89
08-25-2013, 05:46 AM
Invade Iran and see what happens.

-t

Millions killed and china does not give one shits.

A Son of Liberty
08-25-2013, 05:49 AM
Not going to happen. So why bother discussing improbable sinario?

I don't know if this was intentional or not, but cheers to you, sir, if it was. :)

That being said, you - and I understand that you are effectively a troll account - are guilty of 'normalcy bias'. The world, and the Chinese government in particular, is preparing for a post-US world.

tod evans
08-25-2013, 06:39 AM
What happens if China cuts off..
all exports to the United States?

Wal-Mart, Home Desperate and Lowes will go out of business...

osan
08-25-2013, 06:42 AM
all exports to the United States?

China crashes, people starve, rebel.........

Hey, you may be on to something there.

osan
08-25-2013, 06:54 AM
How will China ever collect after the US Dollar collapse? I have owned several business's and I would rather not sell a product than produce one and give it to someone that doesn't end up paying for it.

Point taken, but things are not quite that simple. A single business is not a direct analog of a national economy supporting a billion and a half people, minimum, probably closer to three.

When my mind goes into it, the spectre that is our common future rises and were I of a less stout cloth I would be hiding under the bed, shaking in fright.

What my conscious mind processes in terms of raw comprehension and vision in mere seconds would take me days or weeks to explain here - the branches of implication and inference and even some conclusion spread like an endless tree into the black. Picking all of it apart is a very time consuming and tedious effort, but the gestalt image hits home immediately and is one of likely doom of a cut not necessarily spectacular as with a nuclear war, but so leaden and grey and hopelessly depressing that I cannot see how anyone would not be moved to want ends to the torment such an existence must bring. It reminds me of Fritz Lang's "Metropolis", only far and away worse in degree, the general quality being more or less on the money.

69360
08-25-2013, 06:58 AM
The shelves at wally world would be empty. Life would go on without useless crap.

tangent4ronpaul
08-25-2013, 06:59 AM
Population of China: 1.344 Billion. (2011)

-t

osan
08-25-2013, 07:13 AM
Right now, it would hurt them, but I have the feeling that they are preparing for the inevitable collapse of the dollar and the subsequent consequences for us, them, and the whole world.

It MIGHT hurt them - certainly it would be inconvenient, but remember that we are not the only economy on the planet and someone else here noted that an attack on Iran might precipitate a less than welcoming response from China.

China has a trump card here: their ragingly blatant tyranny over their people. China is a nation of abject slavery, make no mistake about that. It is heading away from that in some ways but remains a hard-line tyranny in the vast majority of aspects. If the US markets become untenable for them, they kick prices down to the basement and Europe gets a freer ride. Then there is South American - not sure what the Chinese market presence is there these days but I suspect it could be grown and inexpensive products, coupled with strong "help" from Beijing to the various SA states to "elevate" their people could prove very profitable in the end, and not just economically.

Then there is Africa - shit hole of the world, eclipsed only by the UK. If China were of a mind, I bet they could bring about notable alterations in the ways in which the African savages manage - or fail to manage - themselves. Get enough of them interested in the "good life" and I would imagine that seemingly impossible things could be accomplished in terms of reducing the savagery that has plagued that continent for thousands of years.

If China can sew up Europe, South American, Africa, and Asia, insofar as the security of their economy goes I would suspect that the rest of the world could burn for all they care. If they have any sense, and I suspect they have plenty of that, they are well into their plans to possibly abandon economic ties with the USA. What will we do, invade? BLURF...

China holds the economic trumps and could bury us within weeks if they closed the spigot - they would take a hit, but would be in a far better position to recover than would we, all else equal. Some will say that they cannot survive because the USA and Japan provide the technologies that they use in monkey-see-monkey-do fashion. That may be so - or not - but they have TONS of it over there now and Japan is right next door and could be overrun in a matter of days, were China to decide to put boots on that ground, and I would not quite rule that possibility out. What then? Nuclear war? Yeah, that'll get us far.

USA, may I please introduce Mr. Rock? And over here we have Mr. Hardplace. If we stay on this course, and there is currently no reason to think we will alter, we are fucked beyond fucked. It's a global circus and we are the clowns.

Uriah
08-25-2013, 08:27 AM
http://www.whatsupyasieve.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/panic.gif

Henry Rogue
08-25-2013, 09:19 AM
I'd be more concerned with them not buying our debt anymore. The people who created that scenario in the first place would start handing over land here with the quickness.
Yeah, maybe china will liquidate us. Take all those FRNs and buy up all the property here, then they will own our natural resources. That would be a smart move on their part I think.

Seraphim
08-25-2013, 09:27 AM
They's stopped buying American debt as it is.

Their UST holdings are slowly but surely dropping - they are allowing them to mature as opposed to rolling the debt over.

Additionally, they have begun selling chunks of UST debt.

It is a large reason why yields have spiked so sharply over the last few weeks. The Chinese are not only not buying but they have started selling UST in chunks of 20-30B.

They are not so foolish as to dump it all in one go (it would torpedo the value of their UST holdings) but they are not so foolish to keep buying and hold all of their long term UST's.

The Chinese have been buying gold hand over fist and have been extracting from their national mines and locking it up within their own nation.

They've hit the point with their gold holding where now feel comfortable actively selling off UST's rather then simply passively allowing them to mature/unwind.

The Fed now owns 31% of ALL UST's.

If the Fed weren't buying - UST yields on the 10 Year would be over 10% and the US Fed Gov't would be ACTIVELY bankrupt.


I'd be more concerned with them not buying our debt anymore. The people who created that scenario in the first place would start handing over land here with the quickness.

osan
08-25-2013, 09:31 AM
Population of China: 1.344 Billion. (2011)

-t\\


If perchance this is addressed to my statement of China's economy supporting perhaps upward of three billions, do not forget that the US population is now dependent mainly on it, as well as that of Europe and a neat bite of the rest of the world. If China disappeared this very instant, in six months time there would be perhaps a few hundreds of millions dead in the wake. The shit would so hit the fan and few would have the first clue what to do about it. There would be reverberating waves of cascading failures going like toppling dominoes.

Seraphim
08-25-2013, 09:33 AM
The FED holds 31.6% of all 10 year UST and equivalents:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-24/fed-holding-316-all-treasurys-short-gamma-pain-trade-one-watch

I apologize, above I said ALL Treasuries - it is the 10Y...which happens to be the most important of the Bond notes to global markets and finance.

Anti Federalist
08-25-2013, 09:40 AM
About time someone asked that question.

I think the answer is obvious what would happen: the same thing that has happened to many societies and nations that decided they would just have everything done for them by other people.

And to those who think China would not do such a thing, in order to further their goals, because of the hardship it would create...

This is a society that killed 60 million people to get to the point they are right now.

The globalists loved what Mao did.

Which is why they sent Nixon and Kissinger to hand the whole fucking shebang over to them in 1971.

"Here you go! Currency, debt, manufacturing base, it's all yours!"

Now it is model for what the world will be.

osan
08-25-2013, 09:40 AM
They's stopped buying American debt as it is.

Their UST holdings are slowly but surely dropping - they are allowing them to mature as opposed to rolling the debt over.

Additionally, they have begun selling chunks of UST debt.

It is a large reason why yields have spiked so sharply over the last few weeks. The Chinese are not only not buying but they have started selling UST in chunks of 20-30B.

They are not so foolish as to dump it all in one go (it would torpedo the value of their UST holdings) but they are not so foolish to keep buying and hold all of their long term UST's.

This makes all good sense. Jack up the velocity of the securities in question, buying and selling, but always selling a small fraction more than you buy. This puts blinders on most and all they see is the furious market activity and you know where that usually leads. If they can dump 71% of their maiximum holdings, I would call them in the clear. That may not be possible for a longish while, given the enormity of those holdings. But the Chinese are nothing if not patient. My goal would be to quietly call up a market storm, off my bad holdings, and silently walk away leaving the suckers to their devices as I filled my vaults with commodities of actual value.

As to another's comment about buying up US real estate and resource rights, that is risky because they cannot take those with them and history shows that agreements mean nothing in the end. When it comes down to brass tacks, possession is 101% of the law.



The Chinese have been buying gold hand over fist and have been extracting from their national mines and locking it up within their own nation.


Smart move. Very smart.



If the Fed weren't buying - UST yields on the 10 Year would be over 10% and the US Fed Gov't would be ACTIVELY bankrupt.

I suspect we'd be there well before it hit 10%. I've not looked at those in years, but last they were around 1%, as I recall.

Zippyjuan
08-25-2013, 03:10 PM
They's stopped buying American debt as it is.

Their UST holdings are slowly but surely dropping - they are allowing them to mature as opposed to rolling the debt over.

Additionally, they have begun selling chunks of UST debt.

It is a large reason why yields have spiked so sharply over the last few weeks. The Chinese are not only not buying but they have started selling UST in chunks of 20-30B.

They are not so foolish as to dump it all in one go (it would torpedo the value of their UST holdings) but they are not so foolish to keep buying and hold all of their long term UST's.

The Chinese have been buying gold hand over fist and have been extracting from their national mines and locking it up within their own nation.

They've hit the point with their gold holding where now feel comfortable actively selling off UST's rather then simply passively allowing them to mature/unwind.

The Fed now owns 31% of ALL UST's.

If the Fed weren't buying - UST yields on the 10 Year would be over 10% and the US Fed Gov't would be ACTIVELY bankrupt.

Not exactly "selling chunks of US Debt". China's holdings of US Treasuries are 1.275 trilion as of June, 2013. One year ago, that was $1.147 trillion. The peak was May, 2013 at $1.297 trillion. It is true that they are not adding much.


The Fed now owns 31% of ALL UST's.

Not quite true. The Fed currently owns $2.00 trillion of US Treasuries as of August 21st http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/ and our debt (total US Treasuries) is nearing $17 trillion. That means that the Fed has under 12% of US Treasuries. It is true that the amounts of their current purchases cover pretty much everything the Treasury is currently issuing.

(noticing this has been corrected to say 31% of ten year US Treaury notes). The Treasury had not been issuing much in ten year notes but has been recently trying to lenghten the average maturity (which is currently 65 months or just over five years). Locking low interest rates for longer terms is an excellent idea if you are a borrower.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/02/06/u-s-treasury-considers-ways-to-extend-debt-maturity/

The U.S. Treasury and its Wall Street advisers are weighing steps to more rapidly extend the maturity of government debt, a development that could partially blunt the Federal Reserve‘s effort to lower long-term interest rates.

The U.S. Treasury Wednesday said the average maturity of its outstanding debt had risen to almost 65 months at the end of 2012, up 34% since an October 2008 trough. That is the longest average maturity in a decade.

The trend looks set to continue. Under current policies, the average maturity of debt is set to rise to 80 months by 2022.

And the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, composed of executives from some of Wall Street’s largest banks and bond investors, at its most recent meeting explored more aggressive measures to extend the maturity even faster.

Scenarios under consideration included the issuance of the 50-year and 20-year bonds. “While no consensus emerged, the committee was comfortable that maintaining the current maturity structure of new issuance will already extend the [weighted average maturity] from 65 months to 80 months by 2022,” minutes of the Tuesday meeting show.

Longer maturities fit with Treasury’s efforts to lock in interest rates at historically low levels. But it conflicts with the Fed’s goal of bringing down longer-term rates in order to encourage borrowing, spending and investing.

The Fed, which last year wrapped up its “Operation Twist” to swap shorter-term for longer-term debt, this year is buying $45 billion per month of Treasurys alongside $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities. The average duration of the Treasurys is about nine years, matching Operation Twist purchases.

But as the Treasury issues more longer term notes, interest rates on those notes will tend to rise as the supply increases.

Cabal
08-25-2013, 03:27 PM
all exports to the United States?

Then the US dollar would have already crashed and China's exports would be the least of our worries.

Schifference
08-25-2013, 10:41 PM
The way the United States sets up sanctions and no fly zones with little consideration for the civilians of any particular nation coupled with our medling in all other countries affairs would be a good enough reason for China to just decide one day that they don't want to sell to us. No war. Go buy your stuff somewhere else or produce it yourself. Then after a few weeks of fear/ panic they reopen their trade after doubling the price. Who needs who? They certainly do not need us.

bolil
08-25-2013, 10:44 PM
In the long run both areas will be better for it.

Then again, I guess I don't really know what it is like in China.

Wooden Indian
08-25-2013, 11:35 PM
Easy enough answer. Surprised so many here missed it.

First we hint to rumors of irrefutable proof that the Chinese are driving around in giant trucks that house WMDs, are harboring terrorists, dislike apple pie, and hate freedom.

With no choice but to free the shit out of the poor bastards, we liberate them with a few hundred made in the USA warheads, with money borrowed from the Japanese, and prop up a "democratically elected" regime, I mean government.

What do I win?

jj-
08-25-2013, 11:37 PM
The way the United States sets up sanctions and no fly zones with little consideration for the civilians of any particular nation coupled with our medling in all other countries affairs would be a good enough reason for China to just decide one day that they don't want to sell to us.

If there was a most clueless poster of the year award...

Schifference
08-25-2013, 11:44 PM
If there was a most clueless poster of the year award...
I probably am clueless but the way I see it, soon it will be the United States vs the world and China cutting the US off would be strategic.

enoch150
08-26-2013, 02:29 AM
Cutting off exports to the US won't happen because it would collapse their own economy.

BULLSHIT!!!

What do you think will happen when they lose a buyer for more than 5% of their GDP? Not only will their economy collapse, but there will be massive riots, which they have been barely holding off with 7% - 8% GDP growth.


What they might do is cease purchasing US government debt with the money they get from exporting to us. If they wanted to cause the US far greater harm than China itself suffers, they could do that by purchasing US made goods. That would lower our standard of living, cause price inflation, and wreck havoc with the value of the dollar and government finances.

Purchase US goods to collapse the economy? What kind of drugs are you on? - they sound really good! - you are delusional!

The Chinese have a lot of money and they get more every month. If the Chinese were to start purchasing US goods, think what would happen to prices. More dollars chasing goods means rising prices. And the Chinese have a lot of dollars. Prices would skyrocket. It would take years to get back to the current supply/demand ratio. Yes, it would do great damage to the American economy if we were forced to directly compete with the deep pockets of the Chinese for goods and services. Not only that, but without China funding government debt, the fed would resort to drastic measures on top of their current insanity. That is to say - they'll print. And that new money, unlike now, would not go to banks and sit as excess reserves. It will be mailed out as SS payments, to military personnel, and to all of the other welfare recipients. Massive and instant monetary inflation on top of the world's 2nd largest GDP driving up prices by trying to bid goods away from Americans. China would be hurt by this. The US would collapse.



The best scenario for both China and the US would for China to continue exporting to us, but cease purchasing government debt and start investing in the US private sector, building manufacturing plants and such.


Purchasing, gaining control of our infrastructure. That would be TOTALLY AWESOME if they decided to attack us some day...

You think investment and creating jobs while furthering trade is a bad thing? It is a well established phenomenon that sufficiently advanced and entangled economies drastically reduce the likelihood of war between them for very obvious reasons. If China owns $1 Trillion dollars of stuff in the US, it all becomes forfeit the instant the war starts and if they start dropping bombs, they'll probably be damaging their own stuff.

tangent4ronpaul
08-26-2013, 04:58 AM
The Chinese have a lot of money and they get more every month. If the Chinese were to start purchasing US goods, think what would happen to prices. More dollars chasing goods means rising prices. And the Chinese have a lot of dollars. Prices would skyrocket. It would take years to get back to the current supply/demand ratio.

Have you gone out looking for ammo recently?

Have you compared the price of a bag of weed today vs what it used to cost wen you were growing up?

-t