Kapt Nemo
11-27-2007, 03:09 PM
Zogby released a poll yesterday showing Hillary Clinton losing potential match ups with five Republican nominees (even Mike Huckabee), a dramatic shift from a few months ago when Hillary was favored over all Republicans in Zogby polls. In the same match ups, Obama comes out on top and Edwards either ties or wins against most Republicans.
So what happened? The Clinton camp questions the methodology and claims the poll is inaccurate because it is Zogby's first online poll. Granted, the results probably shouldn't be compared with previous polls that were conducted via landline telephones, but which of the two methods is more accurate?
There is some validity to the argument that Internet polls exclude a (small) portion of the population without access—perhaps older Americans who are more likely to vote. But traditional telephone polling overlooks a large segment of the population who no longer has a landline and instead relies solely on cellphone service.
And compare the sample sizes: The telephone polls had samples of around 1,000, whereas this latest online survey included more than 9,000 likely voters and had a margin error of +/- 1.0 percent.
My endorsement goes to the online survey. Hillary is beginning to slide, and rather than acknowledge that, her campaign wants to cast doubt polling methodology. Her game plan is to exude a Bush-like confidence (i.e., arrogance) regardless of what's happening in the polls. Consider her interview last night with Katie Couric:
COURIC: If [the nominee] is not you, how disappointed will you be?
CLINTON: “Well, it will be me...”
COURIC: I know that you're confident it's going to be you, but there is a possibility it won't be. And clearly you have considered that possibility.
CLINTON: “No I haven't.”
COURIC: So you never even consider the possibility?
CLINTON: “I don't.”
She had better consider the possibility soon, because the latest poll reflects what has been a common assumption for many: Clinton is too polarizing to draw support from disenchanted Republicans (there are many) and independents and won't do well in a general election.
I would almost find it hard to believe how narcissistic Hitlery is but I guess for someone that thinks being the first lady gives her the most experience to be president it;s not to far off...
So what happened? The Clinton camp questions the methodology and claims the poll is inaccurate because it is Zogby's first online poll. Granted, the results probably shouldn't be compared with previous polls that were conducted via landline telephones, but which of the two methods is more accurate?
There is some validity to the argument that Internet polls exclude a (small) portion of the population without access—perhaps older Americans who are more likely to vote. But traditional telephone polling overlooks a large segment of the population who no longer has a landline and instead relies solely on cellphone service.
And compare the sample sizes: The telephone polls had samples of around 1,000, whereas this latest online survey included more than 9,000 likely voters and had a margin error of +/- 1.0 percent.
My endorsement goes to the online survey. Hillary is beginning to slide, and rather than acknowledge that, her campaign wants to cast doubt polling methodology. Her game plan is to exude a Bush-like confidence (i.e., arrogance) regardless of what's happening in the polls. Consider her interview last night with Katie Couric:
COURIC: If [the nominee] is not you, how disappointed will you be?
CLINTON: “Well, it will be me...”
COURIC: I know that you're confident it's going to be you, but there is a possibility it won't be. And clearly you have considered that possibility.
CLINTON: “No I haven't.”
COURIC: So you never even consider the possibility?
CLINTON: “I don't.”
She had better consider the possibility soon, because the latest poll reflects what has been a common assumption for many: Clinton is too polarizing to draw support from disenchanted Republicans (there are many) and independents and won't do well in a general election.
I would almost find it hard to believe how narcissistic Hitlery is but I guess for someone that thinks being the first lady gives her the most experience to be president it;s not to far off...