Rand Paul Between a Rock and a Hard Place with Bevin Emergence

[AuH20]

Politico is an establishment mouthpiece but this article is dead-on. This is not an enviable position to be put in. We all know why Rand signed onto a loose alliance with McConnell, which was purely about networking and being afforded more latitude within the Senate, but Bevin could complicate Rand's reputation going forward.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/rand-paul-2014-kentucky-senate-race-94727.html

[AuH20]

If SCF and Freedomworks jump in, which I hear is imminent, this could get real interesting. Throw out the recent poll with McConnell up 40 points. Two-thirds polled don't even know who Bevin is.

[Feeding the Abscess]

If SCF and Freedomworks jump in, which I hear is imminent, this could get real interesting. Throw out the poll with McConnell up 40 points. Two-thirds polled don't even know who Bevin is.

McConnell has the lowest approval ratings in the Senate, and only a 60/30 positive split with Republicans. If people pile on and expose McConnell's abysmal record, that already poor rating will drop significantly. This is more important than taking out Lindsey Graham, not only because we don't know who is going to step up and face Graham, but also because Graham is a simple soldado. McConnell is the underboss.

[ObiRandKenobi]

it's a bad look. mcconnell and enzi?

i get he hates liz cheney but couldn't he stay agnostic? why associate with internet sales tax guy.

[jjdoyle]

Politico is an establishment mouthpiece but this article is dead-on. This is not an enviable position to be put in. We all know why Rand signed onto a loose alliance with McConnell, which was purely about networking and being afforded more latitude within the Senate, but Bevin could complicate Rand's reputation going forward.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/rand-paul-2014-kentucky-senate-race-94727.html

I haven't even clicked it, but I imagine the basis is this:
If Rand endorsed Mike Enzi because he was the incumbent, then he should be out in full force in his home state endorsing McConnell.

I guess the proper question before writing this would have been, has Rand ever endorsed a new candidate running for office over an incumbent? BUT, that makes his endorsement of Enzi over Cheney standout a bit more. After McConnell endorsed Rand's opponent and I were Rand, I would dump McConnell now.

Is this election in 2014 in May or in November, or some other time? I think it'll be interesting to see how it all falls apart either way.

[AuH20]

The cavalry is deliberating. Sounds like Bevin is in the process of being vetted:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/07/24/why-conservative-groups-are-treading-carefully-in-mitch-mcconnells-primary/

[FSP-Rebel]

McConnell has the lowest approval ratings in the Senate, and only a 60/30 positive split with Republicans. If people pile on and expose McConnell's abysmal record, that already poor rating will drop significantly. This is more important than taking out Lindsey Graham, not only because we don't know who is going to step up and face Graham, but also because Graham is a simple soldado. McConnell is the underboss.
At least Mitch is fairly civil and catering on certain things toward Rand and if he falls then obviously the #2 GOP in the Senate takes over and that would likely be worse for us. Saving Mitch will make Rand Mr. Kentucky and pretty much run the state party and also have a lot of pull in terms of advancing legislation or disrupting bad should the GOP take back the Senate. I say keep Mitch and take down the pesky Graham.

[Feeding the Abscess]

At least Mitch is fairly civil and catering on certain things toward Rand and if he falls then obviously the #2 GOP in the Senate takes over and that would likely be worse for us. Saving Mitch will make Rand Mr. Kentucky and pretty much run the state party and also have a lot of pull in terms of advancing legislation or disrupting bad should the GOP take back the Senate. I say keep Mitch and take down the pesky Graham.

He's doing that now, but remember that he opposed Rand initially and was the ringleader for the Republicans during the Bush years McConnell is one of the Powers That Be, a gatekeeper of the elite. Taking him down would be a wonderful achievement, and a clear shot across the bow at the establishment.

[AuH20]

At least Mitch is fairly civil and catering on certain things toward Rand and if he falls then obviously the #2 GOP in the Senate takes over and that would likely be worse for us. Saving Mitch will make Rand Mr. Kentucky and pretty much run the state party and also have a lot of pull in terms of advancing legislation or disrupting bad should the GOP take back the Senate. I say keep Mitch and take down the pesky Graham.

Mitch's record is pretty indefensible. He's one of the primary reasons Obama got into power. Secondly, he was/is actively working against any type of Obamacare repeal or defunding. Rand knows this, but Rand has a strategic alliance with Mitch, which I understand.

[FSP-Rebel]

He's doing that now, but remember that he opposed Rand initially and was the ringleader for the Republicans during the Bush years McConnell is one of the Powers That Be, a gatekeeper of the elite. Taking him down would be a wonderful achievement, and a clear shot across the bow at the establishment.
True, but back then Mitch had no idea what a star Rand would become and that's prior to the entering of Cruz. The game has changed and whoda thunk that dear Mitch would becoming to Rand for help now back in the 2010 era? I get the whole achievement angle and that could certainly be made by forcing Flimsey to walk the plank. All these years during the business as usual sessions, Mitch nor other republicans had much incentive to change course until the last few years where the base has erupted from slumber and kicked into action. He seems to be making some changes and it certainly works toward Rand's favor plus Rand is likely to get more allies in his camp and I believe Mitch will have to reluctantly share his allegiance with Team Rand. This will never happen from the likes of Flimsey Graham plus we can make an example of the decrepit name callers and send one of McCain's right hands packing.

[radiofriendly]

You could look at it this way; This will push McConnell towards Rand Paul even more. Sen Paul can use this leverage to get his ideas presented on the floor.

[AuH20]

You could look at it this way; This will push McConnell towards Rand Paul even more. Sen Paul can use this leverage to get his ideas presented on the floor.

Unless he pulls a McCain and goes back to who he was immediately after being re-elected.

[AuH20]

Like I said, I'm hearing rumbling that DeMint's boys are going to go in with both feet against the turtle. DeMint, now running the Heritage Foundation, has always endured a rocky relationship with Mitch:

http://conservativeintel.com/2013/06/24/senate-conservatives-fund-savages-mcconnell-over-immigration-bill/#



As you may know, Senator McConnell has negotiated three deals with President Obama this year that:

1.Raised taxes on 80% of Americans;
2.Suspended the debt ceiling; and
3.Funded the implementation of Obamacare

Now, he’s failing conservatives on immigration too.

Senator McConnell has done absolutely NOTHING to stop the “Gang of Eight” immigration bill — a plan that provides instant amnesty to 11 million illegal immigrants and won’t secure our borders.

Senator McConnell voted for amnesty in 1986 and is now helping Congress pass it again. He praised the bill when it came out of committee and voted with Harry Reid to bring it to the Senate floor.

The critical vote in this debate is now scheduled for Monday on the Hoeven-Corker compromise, another 1,000-page, amnesty-now-border-security-later plan that was written behind closed doors and will include all sorts of earmarks and kickbacks. And, of course, nobody will have time to read it.

Senator McConnell should publicly oppose this deal, insist that senators have ample time to debate it, and use his clout to get wavering senators to defeat it. Instead, he is quietly allowing the amnesty bill to pass.

Many of you have called Senator McConnell to urge him to stop this bill, but so far he is not listening. It’s time to increase our appeals.

We’re going to launch a new radio and TV ad campaign on Monday to flood Senator McConnell’s office with more calls so he cannot ignore us.

We’re not asking him to vote against the bill. A simple “No” vote is not enough from a leader. We’re asking Senator McConnell to use his position as the Republican Leader to defeat it.

Bevin needs to run a slew of ads illustrating Mitch's amnesty treachery. Just roll them out.

[Sola_Fide]

You could look at it this way; This will push McConnell towards Rand Paul even more. Sen Paul can use this leverage to get his ideas presented on the floor.

It will only last during campaigning time. After that, he will be back to screwing us all.

[supermario21]

How do we know this Bevin guy is any good? The "Tea Party" label still scares me. This could be another Michele Bachmann for all we know. At least Mitch pretends to be a Paulite, and has loads of clout, especially if Republicans win the Senate in 2014.


And don't forget, Rand voted to bring immigration to the floor. That wasn't exactly a controversial vote if you ask me.

[TheTyke]

You could look at it this way; This will push McConnell towards Rand Paul even more. Sen Paul can use this leverage to get his ideas presented on the floor.

I agree with this. It's win-win... If we win, we get another good vote and ally in the senate. If we lose, we'll still have given Rand and liberty issues more leverage over McConnell during the election (enhancing their national profile.) The only bad thing that could possibly come out of it is we let the agents of division turn this against Rand.

Full steam ahead!

[AuH20]

How do we know this Bevin guy is any good? The "Tea Party" label still scares me. This could be another Michele Bachmann for all we know. At least Mitch pretends to be a Paulite, and has loads of clout, especially if Republicans win the Senate in 2014.


And don't forget, Rand voted to bring immigration to the floor. That wasn't exactly a controversial vote if you ask me.

McConnell rubberstamped nearly every bad Bush policy. This isn't someone you can trust. Secondly, if you take his scalp, the rest of the bad actors, which includes the terrible Tennessee twins, Graham and others, suddenly start sweating and become less prone to dealing.

[Matt Collins]

If SCF and Freedomworks jump in, which I hear is imminent, this could get real interesting. Throw out the recent poll with McConnell up 40 points. Two-thirds polled don't even know who Bevin is.What poll? :confused:

[Matt Collins]

McConnell has the lowest approval ratings in the Senate, and only a 60/30 positive split with Republicans. Source?




If people pile on and expose McConnell's abysmal record, that already poor rating will drop significantly. I'm guessing Mitch is very vulnerable simply based on his actions.

[Matt Collins]

it's a bad look. mcconnell and enzi?

i get he hates liz cheney but couldn't he stay agnostic? why associate with internet sales tax guy.If Enzi, and others, owe Rand a favor going into 2016 that is very powerful.

[AuH20]

What poll? :confused:

WSS released today

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/kentucky-senate-race-2014-poll-mitch-mcconnell-94746.html

[Lucille]

WSS released today

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/kentucky-senate-race-2014-poll-mitch-mcconnell-94746.html


Rand Paul, whom Wenzel polls for, appears to be the most popular politician in the state. The junior senator, who has endorsed McConnell, is viewed favorably by 61 percent.

Nice.

[JCDenton0451]

I honestly don't understand how can anyone talk about primaring Mitch so long as Lindsay Graham remains in office.

Bevin can take care of himself. Conservatives and FreedomWorks should save their money for Graham's challenger.

[Federico]

I honestly don't understand how can anyone talk about primaring Mitch so long as Lindsay Graham remains in office.

Bevin can take care of himself. Conservatives and FreedomWorks should save their money for Graham's challenger.

I agree with JCDenton0451.

[jjdoyle]

I honestly don't understand how can anyone talk about primaring Mitch so long as Lindsay Graham remains in office.

Bevin can take care of himself. Conservatives and FreedomWorks should save their money for Graham's challenger.

Because politics is local. For Bevin, this makes sense. Are there any names being floated to run against Graham right now?

[AJ Antimony]

I honestly don't understand how can anyone talk about primaring Mitch so long as Lindsay Graham remains in office.

Bevin can take care of himself. Conservatives and FreedomWorks should save their money for Graham's challenger.

McConnell has a primary challenger. We're still waiting for someone to make up their mind in SC.

[jtstellar]

of course the greatest concern is mcconnell will immediately go moderate after the election..

the best scenario would be if bevin turns out to be a neo-con as well, so it won't be a hard choice for rand. If election gets close and bevin isn't that much better than mcconnell, mconnell will have a greater chance of being thankful and sticking by his helpful stance for rand. Either way, i doubt freedomworks will endorse a libertaian

[jjdoyle]

Source?

This was from December:
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/politics/2012/12/11/new-poll-says-sen-mitch-mcconnell-has-worst-job-approval-rating-in-the-senate-and-would-barely-defeat-ashley-judd/

[AuH20]

Bevin is aware of Rand's personal decision to back McConnell and holds no ill will:

"Rand Paul is one vote," says Bevin. "And at the end of the day Rand Paul has decisions he needs to make for himself. I have tremendous respect for Rand Paul. I voted for him twice, and I would vote for him again. But he's one guy, he has his own interests to look after and he has reasons for the decisions he's made. At the end of the day the people of Kentucky are qutie smart enough to make decisions for themselves and don't need to be spoonfed by anybody."

[Federico]

Bevin is aware of Rand's personal decision to back McConnell and holds no ill will:

"Rand Paul is one vote," says Bevin. "And at the end of the day Rand Paul has decisions he needs to make for himself. I have tremendous respect for Rand Paul. I voted for him twice, and I would vote for him again. But he's one guy, he has his own interests to look after and he has reasons for the decisions he's made. At the end of the day the people of Kentucky are qutie smart enough to make decisions for themselves and don't need to be spoonfed by anybody."

This is good to hear, makes me think Bevin might be worth supporting after all.

[Feeding the Abscess]

Source?



I'm guessing Mitch is very vulnerable simply based on his actions.

I was wrong. His approval ratings among Republicans is only 53%.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/mcconnell-remains-extremely-unpopular.html

[FSP-Rebel]

Bevin is aware of Rand's personal decision to back McConnell and holds no ill will:

"Rand Paul is one vote," says Bevin. "And at the end of the day Rand Paul has decisions he needs to make for himself. I have tremendous respect for Rand Paul. I voted for him twice, and I would vote for him again. But he's one guy, he has his own interests to look after and he has reasons for the decisions he's made. At the end of the day the people of Kentucky are qutie smart enough to make decisions for themselves and don't need to be spoonfed by anybody."
Since this thread is targeting Rand, I'd say that Mitch is already aware that Rand wouldn't campaign for his voting record but would offer pleasantry cover over an opponent. Mitch has the money and I'm sure Benton is feeling fuzzy about how he aims to spend it. Ultimately, my main focus is aiding insurgent conservatives propping up in NC, WV, IA, AK and hopefully in SC and TN w/ a potential in MI so I'm not into exhausting resources on the dynamics of this race. If Bevin can self fund, get local tea party money/volunteers and rainy day money from the Senate Conservatives' Fund then that's one thing. I just hope these PACs don't go all in on this race and miss opportunities on other key areas especially if this guy has his own stash.

[georgiaboy]

I agree with this. It's win-win... If we win, we get another good vote and ally in the senate. If we lose, we'll still have given Rand and liberty issues more leverage over McConnell during the election (enhancing their national profile.) The only bad thing that could possibly come out of it is we let the agents of division turn this against Rand.

Full steam ahead!

Yep. Really speaks to the influence Rand has these days.

[Bastiat's The Law]

Since this thread is targeting Rand, I'd say that Mitch is already aware that Rand wouldn't campaign for his voting record but would offer pleasantry cover over an opponent. Mitch has the money and I'm sure Benton is feeling fuzzy about how he aims to spend it. Ultimately, my main focus is aiding insurgent conservatives propping up in NC, WV, IA, AK and hopefully in SC and TN w/ a potential in MI so I'm not into exhausting resources on the dynamics of this race. If Bevin can self fund, get local tea party money/volunteers and rainy day money from the Senate Conservatives' Fund then that's one thing. I just hope these PACs don't go all in on this race and miss opportunities on other key areas especially if this guy has his own stash.

I agree. Meanwhile, Greg Brannon is over in NC eating tv dinners. He has the best chance at actually becoming a Senator, and a damn good one at that!

[ctiger2]

The solution is a simple one.

Rand should simply flip/flop on his support for the turtle and put a big fat stick in their fascist eye.

Then, Ron should endorse Bevin.

Then, turtle soup.

[Federico]

The solution is a simple one.

Rand should simply flip/flop on his support for the turtle and put a big fat stick in their fascist eye.

Then, Ron should endorse Bevin.

Then, turtle soup.

This is an incredibly bad idea so long as McConnell is an overwhelming favorite to win re-election.

[angelatc]

I'd be perfectly happy if party officials, including elected officials, didn't endorse in the primary cycle. I know all the Rand haters will explode if and when he endorses McConnell, but I am ok with it. Mitch isn't one of us, but he's willing to change his positions when the electorate does. I can settle for that at this point.

[RP Supporter]

If SCF and Freedomworks jump in, which I hear is imminent, this could get real interesting. Throw out the recent poll with McConnell up 40 points. Two-thirds polled don't even know who Bevin is.

Indeed. Recall that the very first polls of the 2010 primary in Kentucky had Rand down double digits against Grayson. Bevin has room to grow, and I suspect it will get closer. That he's at 20% already while still effectively being a no name shows there's a vulnerability in McConnell that he can exploit.

I know Rand has to tread carefully here, but I do hope he says nothing against Bevin. He should take a page out of the McConnell playbook and remain officially neutral(Though of course 'ole Mitch broke that promise and endorsed Grayson a few weeks before the primary.) If he ever endorses McConnell, besides a half hearted ho hum statement, or attacks Bevin I imagine he'd lose a good deal of support from his base. But I do think he's smarter than that.

[Brett85]

If he ever endorses McConnell, besides a half hearted ho hum statement, or attacks Bevin I imagine he'd lose a good deal of support from his base.

He has endorsed McConnell.

[RP Supporter]

He has endorsed McConnell.

Yes, I'm aware of that. But I consider his current remarks to be half hearted. Personally I'd prefer if he did not endorse, but I realize he has to do what he has to do. So long as he does not become Mitch's attack dog in the primary, I'm okay with that.

[WD-NY]

This is an incredibly bad idea so long as McConnell is an overwhelming favorite to win re-election.

Totes McGoats.

I know it's hard for some of us within the liberty movement to not make a stink when we think Rand (and other leaders) appears to play "politics over principle", but in this case, the ends most definitely justify the means bc McConnell winning puts Rand in the driver seat heading into 2016.

If McConnell holds his seat (thanks to Rand & Co.) and the GOP takes back control of the Senate (which Nate Silver believes is definitely possible), Rand will not only become the defacto leader of the GOP (by way of Majority Leader McConnell) but also have all of 2014 and half of 2015 to put together & promote legislation THAT CAN & WILL PASS in both the House & Senate.

With a handful of legitimate legislative achievements/victories, Rand will have a much stronger hand against the GOP Governors (e.g. Christie, Walker, etc.), who will no doubt hit him for being more talk than walk (which is strongest argument Governors have against Senators in presidential primaries).

[jtstellar]

Since this thread is targeting Rand, I'd say that Mitch is already aware that Rand wouldn't campaign for his voting record but would offer pleasantry cover over an opponent. Mitch has the money and I'm sure Benton is feeling fuzzy about how he aims to spend it. Ultimately, my main focus is aiding insurgent conservatives propping up in NC, WV, IA, AK and hopefully in SC and TN w/ a potential in MI so I'm not into exhausting resources on the dynamics of this race. If Bevin can self fund, get local tea party money/volunteers and rainy day money from the Senate Conservatives' Fund then that's one thing. I just hope these PACs don't go all in on this race and miss opportunities on other key areas especially if this guy has his own stash.

i don't know why insurgency always pops up where we least need it but places like mccain/graham's seat and those 70 year old senatorial hags from california always go unchallenged..

it's like there would be a challenge on rand paul before someone ever farted in the above places

[compromise]

of course the greatest concern is mcconnell will immediately go moderate after the election..

the best scenario would be if bevin turns out to be a neo-con as well, so it won't be a hard choice for rand. If election gets close and bevin isn't that much better than mcconnell, mconnell will have a greater chance of being thankful and sticking by his helpful stance for rand. Either way, i doubt freedomworks will endorse a libertaian

FreedomWorks is practically run by libertarians nowadays, with Matt Kibbe, Julie Borowski and Austin Petersen to name a few in prominent positions within the organization. They endorsed Rand, Amash and Massie. I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Graham is a far more important target than McConell. Senators need to know, if they refuse to cooperate with the libertea movement and treat it with respect, they will be gone.

[supermario21]

We're all of these threads popping up when Ron was out endorsing guys like Lamar Smith? Someone who was also apparently running against a "Ron Paul supporter?"

[PatriotOne]

I choose to trust Rand to make the right decision here since he's closest to the situation. He knows McConnell....I don't. In Rand I trust.

[american.swan]

We should vote out McConnel, if possible.

[Feeding the Abscess]

Totes McGoats.

I know it's hard for some of us within the liberty movement to not make a stink when we think Rand (and other leaders) appears to play "politics over principle", but in this case, the ends most definitely justify the means bc McConnell winning puts Rand in the driver seat heading into 2016.

If McConnell holds his seat (thanks to Rand & Co.) and the GOP takes back control of the Senate (which Nate Silver believes is definitely possible), Rand will not only become the defacto leader of the GOP (by way of Majority Leader McConnell) but also have all of 2014 and half of 2015 to put together & promote legislation THAT CAN & WILL PASS in both the House & Senate.

With a handful of legitimate legislative achievements/victories, Rand will have a much stronger hand against the GOP Governors (e.g. Christie, Walker, etc.), who will no doubt hit him for being more talk than walk (which is strongest argument Governors have against Senators in presidential primaries).

Look at McConnell's record when he was running the show during the Bush years. Why assume McConnell will act the same when he has the keys to the castle as he has while he's been out of power?

[FSP-Rebel]

Look at McConnell's record when he was running the show during the Bush years. Why assume McConnell will act the same when he has the keys to the castle as he has while he's been out of power?
there was no libertea movement then

[economics102]

The establishment WILL turn on us (Rand) at some point. I don't think anybody here disputes that. They are not going to stand on the sidelines cheering Rand on to the presidency in 2016.

So the question is, what is the optimal time to maneuver out of the way of the knife at our backs? What is the best time to stand on principle and eschew politicking?

Some on this forum advocated for Rand to do that a year or two ago. Yet Rand's current superstar status is owed in significant part to his effective political strategy in allying himself with McConnell.

If Rand were to turn on McConnell during his primary:

A) he'd better hope McConnell is defeated, or revenge is gonna be a bitch;
B) he'd better hope Bevin wins agains the Democrat, or he'll earn the emnity of much of the national Republican base
C) it will cripple his ability to engage in the kind of political cooperation that has brought him his current success in the Senate, and has brought others, like Justin Amash, similar success in the House.

So given the above, I think Rand should continue backing McConnell to help him win re-election.

And I think it's important that we let the establishment throw the first punch, so it's crystal-clear who started the fight once the fight gets underway.

[Brian4Liberty]

Unless he pulls a McCain and goes back to who he was immediately after being re-elected.

Shall we set odds? 10 to 1 that Mitch pulls a McCain?


Are there any names being floated to run against Graham right now?

Damn, time to get out from under that rock! ;)

Nancy Mace or Lee Bright will run against Graham. Hopefully just one of them will declare.

[jjdoyle]

there was no libertea movement then

Ignorance of what your oath is, is no excuse. If Mitch was too lazy to read the bills he voted on then (and probably now) and the Constitution I guess, and vote for how many debt ceiling increases, then why should he remain now?

Not that I have seen much out of Matt Bevin that makes me like him politically, the one clip I saw yesterday of him at a meeting/rally made him seem very forced and fake to me.