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torchbearer
06-24-2013, 04:32 PM
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-warming-temperature-very-close-zero-over-15-years


(CNSNews.com) – In a June 20 interview with Spiegel Online, German climate scientist Hans von Storch said that despite predictions of a warming planet the temperature data for the past 15 years shows an increase of 0.06 or “very close to zero.”

“That hasn't happened,” Storch said. “In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) – a value very close to zero.”

Spiegel asked Storch why the Earth’s temperature has not risen significantly in the past 15 years despite 400 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) being emitted into the atmosphere from human activities.

“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break,” said Storch, a professor at the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and director of the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany.

“We're facing a puzzle,” Storch said. “Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared.

“As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years,” he added.

“That hasn't happened,” Storch said. “In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero.

Storch said the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would have to address these facts in its next climate assessment report due out late next year.

The interview includes this exchange about what this 15-year data showing virtually no rise in the Earth’s temperature means going forward.

SPIEGEL: Do the computer models with which physicists simulate the future climate ever show the sort of long standstill in temperature change that we're observing right now?

Storch: Yes, but only extremely rarely. At my institute, we analyzed how often such a 15-year stagnation in global warming occurred in the simulations. The answer was: in under 2 percent of all the times we ran the simulation. In other words, over 98 percent of forecasts show CO2 emissions as high as we have had in recent years leading to more of a temperature increase.

SPIEGEL: How long will it still be possible to reconcile such a pause in global warming with established climate forecasts?

Storch: If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations.

In the interview, Storch also addressed the “hysteria” over global warming by some advocates.

“Would you say that people no longer reflexively attribute every severe weather event to global warming as much as they once did?” the interviewer asked.

“Yes, my impression is that there is less hysteria over the climate,” Storch said. “There are certainly still people who almost ritualistically cry, ‘Stop thief! Climate change is at fault!’ over any natural disaster.

“But people are now talking much more about the likely causes of flooding, such as land being paved over or the disappearance of natural flood zones -- and that's a good thing,” Storch said.

Storch, however, did not dismiss global warming completely when asked if changes in how scientist measure and predict the Earth’s climate will throw the whole concept into doubt.

“I don't believe so,” Storch said. “We still have compelling evidence of a man-made greenhouse effect. There is very little doubt about it. But if global warming continues to stagnate, doubts will obviously grow stronger.”
- See more at: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/global-warming-temperature-very-close-zero-over-15-years#sthash.H4eyfpfd.dpuf

I<3Liberty
06-24-2013, 04:38 PM
Warming aside, rising CO2 levels have been associated with genetic defects and cancer.

See

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/09/air-pollution-traffic-childhood-cancer_n_3039048.html

http://med.stanford.edu/ism/2013/march/pollution.html

I wish they would focus on these concerns instead of just global warming. No one can deny the need for cleaner more sustainable energy.

CaptUSA
06-24-2013, 04:50 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.

torchbearer
06-24-2013, 05:44 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.

i'm skeptical anytime men claim to understand the entirety of nature.
their weather models are always wrong. i even helped in one of their projects with BOINC client.
that means the assumptions put into the models are wrong or incomplete. yet, they don't act like they are wrong when the data states that they are wrong.
i can't take them seriously, add al gore and carbon taxes to the mix and well- its a no brainer.

mad cow
06-24-2013, 05:52 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.

I don't care what the government,the IPCC,the majority of scientists,Al Gore or anybody else thinks about anthropogenic 'climate change' as long as they don't dictate what anybody else in the world has to do about it.

torchbearer
06-24-2013, 06:00 PM
I don't care what the government,the IPCC,the majority of scientists,Al Gore or anybody else thinks about anthropogenic 'climate change' as long as they don't dictate what anybody else in the world has to do about it.

if what they were saying was true, and it was proven- people will voluntarily choose to live.

Danan
06-24-2013, 06:46 PM
The original "Spiegel"-article (in English) with the full interview is pretty good too:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-hans-von-storch-on-problems-with-climate-change-models-a-906721.html

sailingaway
06-24-2013, 07:15 PM
dang. I'm not sure we can take much more zero temperature change.

ronpaulfollower999
06-24-2013, 07:22 PM
Record Cold Arctic Temperatures Drop Below Freezing Again (https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/record-cold-arctic-temperatures-drop-below-freezing-again/)


http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/screenhunter_298-jun-24-16-36.jpg?w=640&h=440
COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)

It looks to me like this is the latest below freezing mean temperature ever recorded in June. They have had 24 hours of sunshine for several weeks now.

Henry Rogue
06-24-2013, 08:19 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.
Not me, I was skeptical back when most scientist were dubious of such claims by a few. I suspect many who believe global warming is fact, were fed this through their formative years. It's hard to swallow, that Bert & Ernie, Bill Nye the science guy and their favorite social studies teacher could have been pushing an agenda they themselves knew little about.

Dr.3D
06-24-2013, 08:43 PM
Well, when you hear something long enough, you just have to believe it's true.

I've been hearing about climate change for a little while now and to be honest, I don't know if it's changing to be hotter or colder. Which ever, it's mostly caused by changes in solar radiation.

Henry Rogue
06-24-2013, 09:00 PM
Storch: So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We're facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn't happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) -- a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will have to confront when it presents its next Assessment Report late next year. My guess is they will fabricate some bs instead of admitting they have no Fing idea.

Anti Federalist
06-24-2013, 09:10 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.

I wouldn't.

If government said there was no such thing as man made climate change, I'd turn greener than Al Gore.

If government proclaimed that the sun rises in the east, I'd argue with the bastards.

squarepusher
06-24-2013, 09:52 PM
Warming aside, rising CO2 levels have been associated with genetic defects and cancer.

See

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/09/air-pollution-traffic-childhood-cancer_n_3039048.html

http://med.stanford.edu/ism/2013/march/pollution.html

I wish they would focus on these concerns instead of just global warming. No one can deny the need for cleaner more sustainable energy.

did you even read the articles you linked to ?

Occam's Banana
06-24-2013, 11:12 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.

You know what else is funny? They'd very probably be right to do so.

As legendary science fiction editor John W. Campbell, Jr. once said, "You can't do just one thing."

In the case of the particular hypothetical you offer, you can't just change what "the government vehemently denie[s]" without also taking into consideration why the government might be vehemently denying it. The basis for the rejection of the government's claims (especially by "many in this community") is predicated on the well-warranted suspicion that the government is motivated - not by truth or justice or what it honestly thinks is genuinely "for the best" - but by corporate cronyism and self-serving, pocket-lining, special-interest pandering. There is no reason to suppose that these things would be any different under the conditions of your proposed hypothetical.

NOTE: The antecedent to "it" in your statement is not entirely clear. In his reply (post #13), Anti Federalist appears to have interpreted "it" as referring to "the government" - and that is the gramatically correct interpretation. However, I suspect that "it" may have been (ungrammatically) referring to "global warming" - and this is the basis for my comments above.

liberty2897
06-24-2013, 11:16 PM
I wouldn't.

If government said there was no such thing as man made climate change, I'd turn greener than Al Gore.

If government proclaimed that the sun rises in the east, I'd argue with the bastards.

I think that is the first time I've laughed today. Thanks. (would have said that in +rep, but must spread more rep...)

PaulConventionWV
06-24-2013, 11:43 PM
You know what's funny? I bet if the government vehemently denied the existence of global warming, many in this community would believe it regardless of any science.

Are you serious right now? Don't be obtuse. What are you trying to say anyway? That global warming really is real and we're all just contrarians? Oh, I get it, you're edgy and above everyone here because you see through our little secret group think. Yeah, you get it. You're the intelligent one for figuring out that we're all just contrarians. Give it a break, you're nothing special. It's so popular to blame us all for being against the government no matter what they say. We all acted like it wasn't real, but you were the genius who found out we don't really know what the hell we think. Get lost.

enoch150
06-25-2013, 12:04 AM
This is unfortunate. I could do with less winter.

The Free Hornet
06-25-2013, 02:24 AM
Warming aside, rising CO2 levels have been associated with genetic defects and cancer.

See

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/09/air-pollution-traffic-childhood-cancer_n_3039048.html

http://med.stanford.edu/ism/2013/march/pollution.html

I wish they would focus on these concerns instead of just global warming. No one can deny the need for cleaner more sustainable energy.


did you even read the articles you linked to ?

^that times one million!

CO2 is NOT a pollutant - generally. It is in the context of the global warming hypothesis that CO2 might have negative affects. Even in that context, it would be unlike standard pollutants in that its positives are so numerous. It would also be unlike most pollutants whereby it is local concentration that affects you not some global average.

CaptUSA
06-25-2013, 09:07 AM
Are you serious right now? Don't be obtuse. What are you trying to say anyway? That global warming really is real and we're all just contrarians? Oh, I get it, you're edgy and above everyone here because you see through our little secret group think. Yeah, you get it. You're the intelligent one for figuring out that we're all just contrarians. Give it a break, you're nothing special. It's so popular to blame us all for being against the government no matter what they say. We all acted like it wasn't real, but you were the genius who found out we don't really know what the hell we think. Get lost.Are you serious? Jeez, take it down a notch.

I was simply saying that distrust of government has grown to such proportions that we can't believe anything they say. Even if they were to somehow tell us the truth about something, there are many of us that wouldn't believe it. I find that funny.

jtstellar
06-25-2013, 10:39 PM
Are you serious? Jeez, take it down a notch.

I was simply saying that distrust of government has grown to such proportions that we can't believe anything they say. Even if they were to somehow tell us the truth about something, there are many of us that wouldn't believe it. I find that funny.

by your logic we should all be ranting about ufos. we aren't, so.

TheTexan
06-25-2013, 10:42 PM
I don't really care either way. I like change.

Roxi
06-25-2013, 11:39 PM
Wait... so the regulations on CO2 emissions aren't working? Weird!