Geronimo
11-26-2007, 07:17 PM
Monday, November 26, 2007
Primary pluralities
When Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul doubled his previous New Hampshire support in a recent CNN poll, a few national pundits wondered out loud whether the Texas congressman might actually win in New Hampshire.
Such speculation may not be warranted. Paul still comes in 4th in the CNN rankings, trailing Mitt Romney (33 percent), John McCain (18 percent) and Rudolph Giuliani (16 percent). But stranger things have happened.
This story isn’t about polls. It’s about the fact that the New Hampshire primary can do bizarre things when there are many candidates on the ballot.
Winning the New Hampshire primary is a big deal, and until 1996 this state’s voters had a well-deserved reputation as keen winnowers of the presidential field. Then Pat Buchanan took the GOP prize in 1996, generating foot-high headlines everywhere. The question was on people’s minds around the world. Could a man with such peculiar and brittle attitudes actually get elected president of the United States?
Well, no. He couldn’t even get the Republican nomination. That went to Bob Dole in 1996. In our primary, three moderate candidates — Lamar Alexander, Dole and Richard Lugar — received a total of 54 percent of the vote. But in our elections, unlike these in some other places, there are no runoffs. Winner takes all. So Buchanan’s mix of jingoism, religious fundamentalism, trade protectionism and general ill will drew a plurality of votes — 28 percent — in the crowded field, giving this state a lingering black eye. (Buchanan finished third in Cheshire County, behind Dole and Alexander.)
Sometimes with winner-take-all there’s a lot more at stake than reputations. Imagine who would have won the general election in New Hampshire in 2000 if there had been a runoff between Al Gore and George W. Bush, or if the electoral votes had been divided proportionally. As it was, Bush got 273,559 votes, Gore got 266,348, and Ralph Nader got 22,198. Other candidates brought the total votes cast to 578,656. So no one got 50 percent. All the state’s electoral votes went to Bush. Without them, he would not have gained the presidency.
The moral here is that votes count. And in times when more than two candidates are fighting for a plurality of the electorate, they may count in strange and unexpected ways.
We are about to traverse one of those times. There will be 21 Republicans and 22 Democrats jousting in the 2008 New Hampshire primary. As was the case in 1996, a candidate with a small plurality of the votes could win in either party. We’re not predicting any surprises here but, as history shows, you never know.
Primary pluralities
When Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul doubled his previous New Hampshire support in a recent CNN poll, a few national pundits wondered out loud whether the Texas congressman might actually win in New Hampshire.
Such speculation may not be warranted. Paul still comes in 4th in the CNN rankings, trailing Mitt Romney (33 percent), John McCain (18 percent) and Rudolph Giuliani (16 percent). But stranger things have happened.
This story isn’t about polls. It’s about the fact that the New Hampshire primary can do bizarre things when there are many candidates on the ballot.
Winning the New Hampshire primary is a big deal, and until 1996 this state’s voters had a well-deserved reputation as keen winnowers of the presidential field. Then Pat Buchanan took the GOP prize in 1996, generating foot-high headlines everywhere. The question was on people’s minds around the world. Could a man with such peculiar and brittle attitudes actually get elected president of the United States?
Well, no. He couldn’t even get the Republican nomination. That went to Bob Dole in 1996. In our primary, three moderate candidates — Lamar Alexander, Dole and Richard Lugar — received a total of 54 percent of the vote. But in our elections, unlike these in some other places, there are no runoffs. Winner takes all. So Buchanan’s mix of jingoism, religious fundamentalism, trade protectionism and general ill will drew a plurality of votes — 28 percent — in the crowded field, giving this state a lingering black eye. (Buchanan finished third in Cheshire County, behind Dole and Alexander.)
Sometimes with winner-take-all there’s a lot more at stake than reputations. Imagine who would have won the general election in New Hampshire in 2000 if there had been a runoff between Al Gore and George W. Bush, or if the electoral votes had been divided proportionally. As it was, Bush got 273,559 votes, Gore got 266,348, and Ralph Nader got 22,198. Other candidates brought the total votes cast to 578,656. So no one got 50 percent. All the state’s electoral votes went to Bush. Without them, he would not have gained the presidency.
The moral here is that votes count. And in times when more than two candidates are fighting for a plurality of the electorate, they may count in strange and unexpected ways.
We are about to traverse one of those times. There will be 21 Republicans and 22 Democrats jousting in the 2008 New Hampshire primary. As was the case in 1996, a candidate with a small plurality of the votes could win in either party. We’re not predicting any surprises here but, as history shows, you never know.