Nigel Farage has hired bodyguards

[Warlord]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/files/2012/09/ukip.jpg

Mr Farage, who until now has been able to walk around Westminster without any fears for his safety, also said he had now had to hire bodyguards. He said: “I have to think about security for the first time ever, I’m afraid. Horrible.

"What I’ve done for the last 15 years is to book halls all over the country, chuck out a load of leaflets, perhaps take out a local newspaper advert and just turn up, park outside, bowl in, do my bit, meet the people afterwards. Sadly, that’s going to change.”

Ukip is also mounting a fresh drive to recruit more white working class Labour (left-wing) voters. A new party political broadcast is due out next Sunday.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10081456/Nigel-Farage-I-can-do-deals-at-the-next-election-with-20-Conservative-MPs.html
-

GOP should learn from what they're doing. Courting white working class/union Democrats. Tell them Schumer wants to give their jobs to illegal immigrants.

[compromise]

Some of the stuff they've been doing to attract the left hasn't been great. For example, they ditched their flat tax:
http://www.cityam.com/article/ukip-wrong-ditch-flat-tax-farage-s-party-roll

[Warlord]

Some of the stuff they've been doing to attract the left hasn't been great. For example, they ditched their flat tax:
http://www.cityam.com/article/ukip-wrong-ditch-flat-tax-farage-s-party-roll

Have they actually ditched it yet? what's their new policy? I find it hard to believe they can ditch a flat tax and keep a progressive code just because they want to or because Farage thinks its a good idea. That's a pretty large concession to the state.

[Debbie Downer]

GOP should learn from what they're doing. Courting white working class/union Democrats. Tell them Schumer wants to give their jobs to illegal immigrants.

Yeah. The GOP is not going to win over the Hispanic (except maybe Cuban and 3rd/4th generation Mexicans in Texas) vote in 2014/16 so they should focus on poaching the working class vote which is most likely to suffer from an influx of cheap labor.

[enhanced_deficit]

This is again ironic, we used to hear about UK/US supported politicians in places like Afghanistan/Iraq etc living in heavy security blankets, now same is happening in two nations that led the march for spreading freedom in foreign countries.

In last few weeks, media headlines refrenced "scenes like Afghanistan / Iraq" in their coverage of UK soldier killing and Boston bombing. Don't know how much upward freedom pull we have provided after a decade to Afghan/Iraq regions but "they" seem to have pulled us closer to them in many aspects and move in that direction of closing the gap is accelerating.

[Debbie Downer]

Some of the stuff they've been doing to attract the left hasn't been great. For example, they ditched their flat tax:
http://www.cityam.com/article/ukip-wrong-ditch-flat-tax-farage-s-party-roll

They were never going to win a majority in the House of Commons for the foreseeable future and no other party is going to sign on to a flat tax scheme so it makes sense to brush that policy aside for the time being in order to grow their party base and hopefully send a handful of MP's to Westminster next general election.

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/Gh0gdUn.jpg

[Warlord]

They were never going to win a majority in the House of Commons for the foreseeable future and no other party is going to sign on to a flat tax scheme so it makes sense to brush that policy aside for the time being in order to grow their party base and hopefully send a handful of MP's to Westminster next general election.

The article says they might do deals with Conservatives and run them on a joint ticket so technically they will have MPs but sharing them with the Conservative Party. Apparently the Conservatives changed their rules so local party associations can do this and the woman is quoted as saying up to 100 might go for it.

If one of them moved out of the way Nigel might get a safe seat and run on the Conservative-UKIP line which means he'd be an MP and eligable to serve in Her Majesty's government and perhaps one day as Prime Minister.

[Warlord]

If Conservatives lose the next election (likely) and Nigel is elected on the Conservative-UKIP line he could stand for the conservative leadership I think under their rules and become the official opposition leader.

But that might be a step too far. He might do a deal with someone else and become a senior member of the opposition.

My guess is their 25% share of the vote has the conservative party wing of the establishment in a real panic and they're trying to do a deal but I dont see Nigel doing much until Cameron is fired when he loses in 2015.

[Debbie Downer]

The article says they might do deals with Conservatives and run them on a joint ticket so technically they will have MPs but sharing them with the Conservative Party. Apparently the Conservatives changed their rules so local party associations can do this and the woman is quoted as saying up to 100 might go for it.

If one of them moved out of the way Nigel might get a safe seat and run on the Conservative-UKIP line which means he'd be an MP and eligable to serve in Her Majesty's government and perhaps one day as Prime Minister.

What will most likely happen is that UKIP and the Tories will strike deals on a constituency by constituency basis so that only one candidate from either party runs in safe seats or in very competitive ones so as not to split the center-right vote and let Labour or Lib Dem candidates slip by. That won't mean that they will create an electoral coalition, they just won't run against each other in strategically important seats. There are many seats that that UKIP cannot win but they could siphon enough votes away from the Tories and there are some seats which UKIP could potentially win if there is no Tory candidate to take the center-right vote. Each party with have their own MPs, they will not merge into one party.

[Warlord]

What will most likely happen is that UKIP and the Tories will strike deals on a constituency by constituency basis so that only one candidate from either party runs in safe seats or in very competitive ones so as not to split the center-right vote and let Labour or Lib Dem candidates slip by. That won't mean that they will create an electoral coalition, they just won't run against each other in strategically important seats. There are many seats that that UKIP cannot win but they could siphon enough votes away from the Tories and there are some seats which UKIP could potentially win if there is no Tory candidate to take the center-right vote. Each party with have their own MPs, they will not merge into one party.

Yeah the deal is they endorse the UKIP manifesto and agree to vote Nigel Farage in the conservative leadership election :) if 100 do that and are returned and there's 220 or so conservative MPs which is what they will likely end up with then he'll be a serious player once Cameron is forced to resign on election night. If he then "joins" the conservative party as a paid member he'll be eligable to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party and he'd have effectively taken them over if they elect him.

The 220+ MPs will choose two members after several rounds of round robin voting (the ones with the least get knocked out until 2 left) and then they will go to the party membership for them to vote on via postal ballot. One of these men might be Farage if enough of the "deal" MPs are returned and have pledge their vote to him !

That's assuming Labour manage to win the election which they should do considering the in built bias

[Debbie Downer]

Yeah the deal is they endorse the UKIP manifesto and agree to vote Nigel Farage in the conservative leadership election :) if 100 do that and are returned and there's 220 or so conservative MPs which is what they will likely end up with then he'll be a serious player once Cameron is forced to resign on election night. If he then "joins" the conservative party as a paid member he'll be eligable to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party and he'd have effectively taken them over if they elect him.

The 220+ MPs will choose two members after several rounds of round robin voting (the ones with the least get knocked out until 2 left) and then they will go to the party membership for them to vote on via postal ballot. One of these men might be Farage if enough of the "deal" MPs are returned and have pledge their vote to him !

That's assuming Labour manage to win the election which they should do considering the in built bias

I don't see Farage abandoning UKIP and joining the Tories. He would not win the Tory leadership race and UKIP would disintegrate overnight.

[Warlord]

I don't see Farage abandoning UKIP and joining the Tories. He would not win the Tory leadership race and UKIP would disintegrate overnight.

No it wouldn't. He would stress he's a Conservative-UKIP.

UKIP would just elect his deputy. This is a way for Farage to become Prime Minister in 2020 and if he does convince enough conservative MPs to put his name forward and assuming he lands a safe seat once Cameron is forced to resign I think he could win the leadership postal ballot vote as he's a forceful personality and has a high name recognition and appeal.

Dont forget the UK could well end up withdrawing from the EU within the next 5 years. UKIP could lose a big issue for them. Effectively merging with the Conservatives would make sense.

[Warlord]

Dont forget the Conservative Party will be leaderless once they give Cameron the boot.

They're also hemorrhaging party members at an alarming rate.

Being in government and unpopular is not good for the party.

They might decide having Farage as their leader is the best bet. If enough MPs he does a deal with are returned and agree to make him one of the two for the postal ballot post-Cameron he'd have a real shot. He'd go and campaign and meet the party members and try and win them over. He could pull it off and effectively complete a take over.

Labour will soon cave and offer a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU sometime in the next 5 years so if they win the election then that could happen and Farage can lead the OUT campaign.

If the UK votes to leave the EU there will then be like 40 Conservative and UKIP MEPs out of a job. They go home and join the new merged party.

As a combined unity ticket and with Farage as the leader all the new members fight for the marginal "swing" Labour seats in 2020. By then l think Labour will promise to correct the bias in the system. It got shelved for 5 years so they have a big advantage in 2015 but I doubt they will shelve it again when in power as that would look bad and I think the political class will correct the bias to ensure there's only 50,000 residents per constituency.

Farage could have a real shot at becoming PM in either 2020 or 2025 and I think that's his dream.

[compromise]

In 2010, 7 non-UKIP candidates got endorsed by UKIP, and UKIP campaigned for them:

Douglas Carswell (Con) - Clacton (incumbent MP, really good guy who knows what he's talking about with regards to economics, he's mentioned in Ron Paul's Monetary Policy Anthology)
Philip Davies (Con) - Shipley (incumbent MP, anti-immigrant/Islam backbencher, his father is associated with the English Democrats)
Philip Hollobone (Con) - Kettering (incumbent MP, another anti-immigrant traditionalist)
Janice Small (Con) - Batley and Spen (lost and defected to UKIP afterwards)
Alex Story (Con) - Wakefield (lost)
David Drew (Lab) - Stroud (incumbent MP, lost but running again in 2015, eurosceptic hard-leftist)
Bob Spink (Ind) - Castle Point (incumbent MP, former conservative who left the party, lost, anti-immigrant traditionalist who disagreed with UKIP on civil liberties)

I imagine Carswell, Davies, Hollobone and Drew will be endorsed again. I hope incumbent MP (and 2010 freshman) Steve Baker is also endorsed, he's closely aligned with Carswell on monetary policy.

[Warlord]

Yes Carswell is good and may become the new "brains"/policy chief of the Conservatives once the clear out starts and the dust has settled.

Cameron and his team has been a disaster for them. They're just pretty much coasting to defeat and will be booted out so fast they wont know whats hit them.

If this deal talk happens Farage might be an MP when Cameron is given the boot and he might stand for leader.

The numbers quoted tonight are far higher than they have talked about before (up to 100) and that means if they all pledged to Nigel in a leadership vote he'd definitely make the postal ballot as one of the 2 assuming he's elected to Parliament and lands a safe seat somewhere. Then he's got to win over the party members (the ones that are still there and not demoralized or have died off). He could do it if he wants .

[Warlord]

He would certainly reenergize the party if they did a combined ticket and made him leader.

We'll see what happens but interesting developments that's for sure.

Watch this space. Nigel is on a big upward curve.

I think the Conservative wing of the political establishment is getting nervous at UKIP's success. It's interesting that Farage had dinner with Murdoch and then suddenly all this talk of deals and up to 100 MPs on a combined ticket and rules changes to the Conservative Party. Murdoch is a major power broker and this may have come from him.

[compromise]

Farage's presence might upset some of the establishment types. If there is some form of deal or merger, Tory MP (and 2005 Conservative leadership candidate and civil liberties advocate) David Davis would be someone acceptable to both sides and to the British liberty movement.

[Warlord]

Farage's presence might upset some of the establishment types. If there is some form of deal or merger, Tory MP (and 2005 Conservative leadership candidate and civil liberties advocate) David Davis would be someone acceptable to both sides and to the British liberty movement.

Davis is not likely to be a figure who can re-energize the party. The establishment types old farts might decide they want Farage as leader.

The Conservative Party is ultimately controlled by its big donors and people like Lord Ashcroft. Check him out. He is fanatical about polling and a very rich businessman who funds the party. He's on twitter. There's also people like Stuart Wheeler who used to fund the party but now backs UKIP.

These are the guys that will decide what happens and if they think Farage is the man they will snap him up so to speak kind of like a job interview and all these guys are chairmen and run successful multinational companies. Saatchi and Saatchi chairman is the other man and he used to work for Thatcher and he will be sympathetic to Nigel being a populist right-wing leader type and euroscpetic.

I also found it interesting that Rupert Murdoch is back on the scene and having dinner with Farage. He doesn't usually surface in British politics unless there's some change happening. Cameron is toast. He's not really in control of the party the donors are and it looks like they've been changing the rules of the party to allow a Conservative-UKIP line as the Establishmentarians are getting worried about their 25% share of the vote in local elections. They're likely to win the EU elections or be the largest UK party in them in 2014 and that is going to have them panicking even more a year out from an election.

It looks like from what the report in the telegraph tonight (one of their favorite rags) they're laying a groundwork for some sort of merger and Britain leaving the EU in 5 years time as Barroso wants to push ahead with the superstate and they know the UK wont sign up for that so want them out because they have veto powers over new treaties.

[Warlord]

Also interesting to note Bilderberg in the UK this year. The elites will undoubtedly discuss the UKIP "situation" and make some decisions regarding what to do.

The fact that Rupert Murdoch was having dinner with Farage is very telling. They're courting him and if he receives the blessing of the true rulers of the UK Murdoch's newspapers and Sky News network will provide the propaganda muscle and sell Farage to a wider audience.

[Warlord]

I see Mr. Murdoch's tabloids in the UK are hitting Cameron for going to Ibiza while there is a terror investigation and "what did they know" inquiry going on into MI5.

Looks like if they're hating on him already then he is in trouble.

Look at some of the language they're using:

-
Labour MP Sarah Champion said Mr Cameron’s decision to take a break showed he was “utterly out of touch.”

She added: “While the country struggles to come to terms with the vile crime in Woolwich this week and investigations continue, he has swanned off to Ibiza.

“The public deserve better from their Prime Minister.”

Mr Cameron has told friends in the past his wife puts her foot down when it comes to family holidays.

A poll today reveals voters lack confidence in Mr Cameron’s handling of terrorism.

It shows 47 per cent believe he is ineffective while 41 give him their backing.

His rating is marginally worse than Tony Blair’s after the 7/7 attacks on London.

[gwax23]

Nice analysis warlord. I hope your right, I also hope that Nigel doesnt sell out.

[AngryCanadian]

And GW bush Stated History will remember me? in what way again :rolleyes:

[ThePenguinLibertarian]

Nice analysis warlord. I hope your right, I also hope that Nigel doesnt sell out.

HE already has. maybe he is not showing it now, but it will be done. The only way to prove he won;t sell out is for Nigel to keep his stances, and raise the money himself. But the political machine will not.

[ThePenguinLibertarian]

bump

[jtstellar]

Nice analysis warlord. I hope your right, I also hope that Nigel doesnt sell out.




HE already has. maybe he is not showing it now, but it will be done. The only way to prove he won;t sell out is for Nigel to keep his stances, and raise the money himself. But the political machine will not.

why do some love the term 'sell-out' so? why not use the term 'compromise'? compromise implies policies, sell-out implies on loyalty, and quite frankly people owe you none of the latter.

you didn't feed him, you didn't raise him, if he says something you don't like, who's he selling out? he didn't swear an oath to be your family pet, he didn't get any favors from you, he doesn't owe you guys shit.. if anything, you owe him. stick to policy debates please, and the term for that is 'compromise' if he decides to moderate his own positions.

strategically he has chosen to put more emphasis on leaving the EU first and putting much less on domestic issues, which when closely examined must have a good number of not very libertarian positions, because UK itself is a more liberal country. that's a strategical decision, you can decide whether a political compromise like that to advance the agenda of leaving the EU is to your liking, but to call someone a sell-out because you're used to living in a basement and have loyalty handed to you on a silver platter is a joke