Define victory in the early primaries.

[Original_Intent]

Of course the obvious answer is "to win them all." And I don't disagree that should be what we aim for.

To me, victory will be a win in NH, and a top three finish in Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina. If we pull that off I think we launch Ron Paul for the rest of the primaries.

Again I WANT wins in all of them, but this would be a mark that if we can meet I will be VERY, VERY happy!

How about the rest of you? What are your personal benchmarks for success?

[Midnight77]

I win by my definition would be a win in 2 of those states and a top 3 in the other Early Primaries.

I can actually see winning in New Hampshire and Nevada.

Not holding my breath on Iowa, Michigan, and South Carolina (even though he is up to 8% there).

[NewEnd]

New Hampshire - win
Iowa - 3rd
Wyoming - 2nd
Michigan - 2nd
Nevada - win
South Carolina - 3rd

This is what I think best case scenarios are.

[Chester Copperpot]

I think we will win NH, Nevada, SC, and Michigan.. that will be a devastating blow to the other campaigns..

[me3]

2 wins out of IA, SC, NV and NH are necessary. 1 win and we're going to the RNC as a deal maker.

[Original_Intent]

I think we will win NH, Nevada, SC, and Michigan.. that will be a devastating blow to the other campaigns..

From your lips to God's ear! I think in SC a win may be pie in the sky dreaming, but boy I would love to eat crow on that call!

[Chester Copperpot]

From your lips to God's ear! I think in SC a win may be pie in the sky dreaming, but boy I would love to eat crow on that call!

We are at 8% in Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire... Michigan is an open primary State so we get everybody who wants RP in to vote.. and I think nevada is an open caucus too..

Ive said it before and ill say it again.. at 10% with our level of intensity RP has a good chance of winning a State.. at 15% I think its a guarantee.

[Ron Paul Fan]

To win them all.

[rational thinker]

Michigan- win
New Hampshire- win
South Carolina- 2nd
Nevada- win
Iowa- 3rd
Wyoming- win


Keep in mind that the time is crucial. If he places 3rd in Iowa, then he will become more noticeable in the other states, resulting in boosts towards his campaigns. Therefore, New Hampshire, he should win, as well as Michigan, as a result of a NH win. It's sort of like a domino effect.

[Original_Intent]

2 wins out of IA, SC, NV and NH are necessary. 1 win and we're going to the RNC as a deal maker.

Out of those would you agree that NH and NV are the most likely wins?

[rational thinker]

What I don't understand is that Ron Paul is not advertising in Michigan yet. He should as it is the third state to vote. I've never seen one television commercial here.

[Midnight77]

Out of those would you agree that NH and NV are the most likely wins?

Agreed.

Signs are everywhere in Nevada. Visited there last weekend. And of course, we know about New Hampshire.

Not going to assume anything, but these 2 states he has the best shot in as of right now.

[Goldwater Conservative]

I don't want to define it in terms of rank, although I know the media will, because I think they'll all be so close (the winner never breaking 33%, and many candidates within a few points of each other).

Anyway, I'd say beating all of the "frontrunners" at least once between Iowa and NH, with the possible exception of Romney. If we beat McCain in both, his campaign is finished. If we beat Thompson in either, he's going to be weakened, and if we beat him in both, he's going to be very embarrassed (and desperate) heading into SC.

If we beat Giuliani in both, he'll have a noticeable (and widely reported) black eye, which will only get worse if we can best him in the other early primaries. Huckabee's first and last real stand will be in Iowa, in my opinion, unless he can break 25% with a few points on second place (which I don't think he will).

Romney can beat us in most of the early primaries and I might not care, since I think he's so paper-thin and his "supporters" are ready to abandon ship at the drop of a hat. Plus, we all know how he'd have won them, and I don't think even his pockets are deep enough to have the same effect everywhere else.

[austin356]

Iowa:
Huckabee
Romney
Paul

NH:
Paul
Romney
Huckabee

NV:
Paul
Romney
Giuliani

SC:
Romney
Paul
Thompson or Huckabee


That is success and that puts us in the position to win on Feb. 5th.

[Menthol Patch]

If we start working together right now and raise 12 million by Nov. 31 we can win all those states!

[Taco John]

I honestly think that if we could somehow win Iowa, we'd sweep the early primaries easily...