I wonder how much Ron Paul's poll numbers are underestimated

[AWF]

I think we can all agree that RP's support is potentially well underestimated based on the current polling surveys. I see his numbers as depressed due to two main reasons: a) the methodology of relying on random phone book samples and b) the relatively smaller percentage of RP supporters who are defined as "likely" Republican voters.

I think there are three sources of undercounting based on the use of telephone books 1) people with cell phones only (the biggest factor?), 2) people who live in dormitories or with parents/others and 3) people with unlisted land lines.

Judging by our strength in the text message polls and the relative youth of this board and RP rallies, I imagine there are a significantly higher than average proportion of RP's people in categories 1) and 2). You might also construct a theory that people suspicious of centralized federal govt power are likelier to have unlisted numbers, but I'm not sure. Hard to quantify overall proportion that would get missed by pollsters - as high as 50%?

Then, apart from the telephone book screen, there's the less well understood issue of who qualifies as a (likely) Republican primary/caucus voter. I think to some extent this is self-reported by the interviewee to the poll-taker. In this case, I imagine we have more people who would broadly consider themselves to be Independent, Democratic, Libertarian, etc. regardless of their current registration or who they voted for in any given election.

Also, it's been reported that some pollsters use attendance at the 2000 and/or 2004 GOP primaries as a screen to judge if someone is expected to vote. I don't know if that's really true, but if so, then we're definitely being shortchanged, because I'd guess the pretty large majority of our people did not vote in either of the last couple of GOP primaries (even the contested 2000 one), whereas the majority of other GOP partisans participated in at least one.

Finally, there's the question of whether RP supporters are less likely to participate in a full phone interview, even if they have their number listed and consider themselves to be a GOP voter.

Anyway, of course the most important thing is to get out to vote and to kick rear end during the actual primaries and caucus events. Let's stay very positive regardless of what the polls say! If RP is officially at 7-8% in NH or NV, that could mean he's really getting 8%, but it could be more like 10%, 13%, 18%, who knows? To say nothing of our relatively high turnout rate....

Is anyone else here getting excited for the GOP nomination season to start?

[curtisag]

I am getting excited, because I know for a fact Ron Paul supporters are the most dedicated of any candidate. Evidence of this can been seen in our fund raising ability, straw poll victories, and our grassroots efforts. The media used to respect straw polling in previous elections, but since Ron is winning this time, they are discarded as irrelevant. Our meetup groups are amazing and there are even people in other countries with dedicated blogs for Ron Paul.

If you couple these facts with the fact that 7 of 10 Romney supporters, for example, say they could vote for someone other than Romney, we are on the fast track to taking everyone by surprise. The support for the big name candidates may generate a high % in the polls, but all of that support they have is WEAK support. Republicans are mostly dissatisfied with all of their choices.

Plus, most people still don't know about Ron Paul yet. And those people don't start paying attention or making up their minds until the last week or so before the primaries. John Kerry had national polling at ONLY 4% in mid-December of 2003 leading up to the nomination. He was in last place, and he won the nomination with very little cash. Our position is so much better than his was and he WON. We will raise more money in the 4th quarter than any other Republican candidate, and that is going to be huge news in the media for sure.

I could go on and on...but you get the idea :).

[Bobby Johnson]

Is anyone else here getting excited for the GOP nomination season to start?

I'm not eager for it to start. Frankly, I would like to see the primaries pushed back so that people at the grassroots level would have more time to get Ron Paul's name out. I think we can all agree that Ron Paul's support in the polls is understated. However, to be excited for the primaries to start may be overconfidence talking there.

In my church, the dissatisfaction level for Romney, McCain, and Guiliani has been very high for a long time. However, it was only at the conclusion of November 5th did the people start to not only recognize Ron Pual's name but also begin to get an idea of what he stood for.

Don't get me wrong. These are heady days to be a Ron Paul supporter. Yet, most people still can't tell me what he stands for. Sorry to get you down.

I would rather have more time and have Ron Paul gain the nomination versus rushing things and having him just fall short of the needed support. Intense supporters, yes. Sheer numbers to gain the nomination, no.(He will soon:D)

In other words, I understand your excitement because I share it too. However, I don't believe Ron Paul has the name recognition at this time to gain the nomination.

[AlexMerced]

I'd like more time as well, but at the same time I'm anxious to see the results.

[margomaps]

3) people with unlisted land lines.

Many of these polls (possibly most?) are done using random digit dialing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_digit_dialing). This method is immune to the "unlisted number" problem. FYI. :)

[JMO]

If you wish to see how polls choose their participants--here is a lengthy article.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/09/how_do_pollster_1.html

[AlexMerced]

THe polls may be off by a lot of little, but we know how to make them grow, by calling super voters.

Poll numbers will get us more voters, low numbers will lose us voters. I hear time and time again "I want to believe but I just can't" we need to contact supervoters to amkethem believe.

It sounds like a bad christmas movie, but I guess it is that time of the year.

[schmeisser]

My prediction is that true support because of better turn-out and any polling flaws will equal 3 times the polling numbers. So, 8% will mean 24% at the voting booth. We definitely need to get into double digits everywhere before the primaries/caucuses/conventions.

Some other predictions that we will need to address as we gain momentum.

1. The GOP will quickly thin the herd to consolidate support away from Ron Paul.

2. The other candidates wil begin co-opting parts of the Ron Paul message that they feel are most popular to try and pull off the edges of our support.

3. Ron Paul will continue to get little and negative MSM coverage.

We need to be reaching out face to face, one voter at a time as we have been doing. Never let up or think there is some magic tipping point that will push us over the top. We have only begun this fight. This will be an historic election season no matter what the outcome.

[A Ron Paul Rebel]

early or late primary, Paul supporters will be there... and other voters will be confused!

As far as the %, I'd realistically say that 8% in New Hampshire is closer to 20-24%. With the number of Independents (~45%) and the number of undecided (~50%) and the fact that 80+% of the people I talk to HAVE HEARD OF DR. PAUL from radio and tv ads, I'd say that his numbers are 3x or even 4x what the 'scientific polls' report.


A Ron Paul Rebel
p.s. When I ask if people have heard of Dr. Paul THE most common response is a slight grin, with an 'Oh yeah!' as they scan the slimjim or 'Constitution Flier'.

[USPatriot36]

Also, it's been reported that some pollsters use attendance at the 2000 and/or 2004 GOP primaries as a screen to judge if someone is expected to vote. I don't know if that's really true, but if so, then we're definitely being shortchanged, because I'd guess the pretty large majority of our people did not vote in either of the last couple of GOP primaries (even the contested 2000 one), whereas the majority of other GOP partisans participated in at least one.

I talked with a professional pollster and this is definitely how they screen voters. The logic is that the Only people they can regularly predict to show up at the polls are those who previously voted in GOP primaries. This is obviously inaccurate this go around, but normally, it is pretty accurate.

A very telling poll is the one done by Rasmussen where they consider a 4 way run between Hillary, Giuliani, Paul and Nader. This was done of voters in general and not on likely Republican primary voters. In that poll Paul gets 8 percent and Giuliani gets 39 percent. So if we consider that 39+8=47 is the total universe of republican voters, Paul got 17 percent of the total. Hopefully, that is where we are nationally.

[Adamsa]

The only reason we should be hopeful is because of this message's ability to attract both independants and people who've never voted before. It is good hope. :D

[vertesc]

Can telephone pollsters call people on the do-not-call registry? Because that would also be a huge portion of the population.

[Avalon]

In that poll Paul gets 8 percent and Giuliani gets 39 percent. So if we consider that 39+8=47 is the total universe of republican voters, Paul got 17 percent of the total. Hopefully, that is where we are nationally. There's no way that's where we are nationally. Have you gone out and talked to people about Ron Paul yet?

[max]

theres another missing factor...


people will lie to pollsters in order to give what they perceive to be the "correct" answer...

in the privacy of the booth these timid sould will vote their hearts

[kylejack]

Let's just hope Hillary crushes everyone in Iowa.

[AWF]

Interesting points, esp. the random digit dialing and the do-not-call registry..I hadn't considered those elements.

I think that generally, the more people in the GOP race the better. However, the exceptions would be Tancredo (especially) and Hunter, where I think RP could really be the second choice for many of their supporters. Both are very poorly funded, so they could be out early, although how many votes would they really open up? Turning to the other side of the aisle, it would be an interesting dynamic if the Dem race becomes a joke (i.e. Clinton blowout). I wonder how many marginal Obama/Richardson/Kucinich and other Dem leaners would move to RP if their candidate was performing very poorly or dropped out?