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View Full Version : PPP Poll - 2016 NH GOP Primary - Rand 1st with 28%




tsai3904
04-25-2013, 01:04 PM
2016 NH GOP Primary (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/04/paul-rising-in-new-hampshire.html)
April 19-21, 2013

Paul 28%
Rubio 25%
Christie 14%
Bush 7%
Ryan 7%
Martinez 3%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%

Rand leads among men, 18-45, 46-65 and Independents. Rubio leads among women, older than 65, and Republicans.

General Election:

Clinton 52%
Paul 41%

Clinton 52%
Rubio 38%

brandon
04-25-2013, 01:07 PM
Nice. What do all the elderly republican women like about Rubio?

supermario21
04-25-2013, 01:07 PM
Rand gets 38% of the youth vote against Clinton. If Paul can shore up senior citizen Republicans he can win nationally.

Christian Liberty
04-25-2013, 01:08 PM
People over 65 don't like Rand because almost all of them are in the stupid "Obama's a socialist but keep your government hands of my medicare and social security" category...

VoluntaryAmerican
04-25-2013, 01:08 PM
Prepare for the Randslide.

Varin
04-25-2013, 01:10 PM
Nice. What do all the elderly republican women like about Rubio?

o'reilly factor?

tsai3904
04-25-2013, 01:11 PM
Rand is going to have the same problem as Ron when it comes to Independents. He crushes the second place (Christie) by 13%, which means he gets a lot of Independent support.

However, we all know Independents will not (or do not know that they need to) register as Republicans to vote in primaries in states where that's required.

supermario21
04-25-2013, 01:11 PM
Rand is going to have the same problem as Ron when it comes to Independents. He crushes the second place (Christie) by 13%, which means he gets a lot of Independent support.

However, we all know Independents will not register as Republicans to vote in primaries in states where that's required.

In New Hampshire, you can vote in the primary as an independent.

QWDC
04-25-2013, 01:12 PM
I like how the 18-45 group is more conservative than the over 45 group. Especially the 30-45 group, same trend in almost every state polled so far.

tsai3904
04-25-2013, 01:12 PM
In New Hampshire, you can vote in the primary as an independent.

Yea that's why I said (or meant to say) he's going to have that problem in states where its required to register as a Republican and I would guess its a majority of states that have that requirement.

supermario21
04-25-2013, 01:13 PM
Yea that's why I said he's going to have that problem in states where its required to register as a Republican and I would guess its a majority of states that have that requirement.

We need to do mass registration drives over the next 3 years.

supermario21
04-25-2013, 01:16 PM
And this is how Jewish Democrats are responding....



NJDC ‏@NJDC 1h
With NH "unity dinner" the @GOP is giving @SenRandPaul a pass on his negative #Israel-related foreign policy baggage http://owl.li/kq3g7

Aratus
04-25-2013, 01:31 PM
Prepare for the Randslide.

THIS!!!

Christian Liberty
04-25-2013, 01:32 PM
I guess I'll sell my soul to the devil and register GOP...

muzzled dogg
04-25-2013, 02:15 PM
i'll be starting a PAC shortly

RonPaulFanInGA
04-25-2013, 02:19 PM
And this is how Jewish Democrats are responding....

This coming from the party that supported Obama? It was a pretty open secret Netanyahu does not like Obama, and wanted Romney to win last November.

asurfaholic
04-25-2013, 02:21 PM
Very nice numbers.

Randslide
04-25-2013, 02:23 PM
Very nice numbers.

Heck yeah, ready to go. Going to be a wild 3+ years.

Keith and stuff
04-25-2013, 02:30 PM
I like how the 18-45 group is more conservative than the over 45 group. Especially the 30-45 group, same trend in almost every state polled so far.
It's more socially liberal. It's not more conservative. Maybe it would be correct to say more libertarian. At least, that's how it is in NH.

trey4sports
04-25-2013, 02:33 PM
great news. Hopefully we dont have to give up much politically to keep picking up voters.

TaftFan
04-25-2013, 02:41 PM
Ron Paul finished 2nd. I expect Rand to win here.

compromise
04-25-2013, 03:32 PM
Why would old people like Rubio, a neo-gangsta who openly talks about his affinity for Straight Outta Compton?

Bastiat's The Law
04-25-2013, 03:56 PM
Yea that's why I said (or meant to say) he's going to have that problem in states where its required to register as a Republican and I would guess its a majority of states that have that requirement.
It's a good point that you make, but I think if we buckle down and focus all our energy into the first 4-5 states we could win this thing, with added emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire. Those two states are the crown jewels and Independents in NH are a huge voting bloc that do cross over to vote in the primaries. Can we do more outreach to Independents in Iowa? If Rand does his part to shore up the Republican votes, grassroots could hit the Independents hard in the other places.

Brett85
04-25-2013, 04:20 PM
I like how the 18-45 group is more conservative than the over 45 group. Especially the 30-45 group, same trend in almost every state polled so far.

Yeah, the 30-45 age group is the most conservative age group in the country according to almost every single one of these polls.

James Madison
04-25-2013, 04:45 PM
Yeah, the 30-45 age group is the most conservative age group in the country according to almost every single one of these polls.

People who grew-up with Reagan, the fall of Communism, and the economic boom of the '90s. Once you get a taste of capitalism, it's hard to go back to anything else.

supermario21
04-25-2013, 04:59 PM
Hopefully Rand can pick up where Ron left off and engage a whole new generation of young freedom lovers. I think Obama's failure to succeed will leave even the millenials that put him over the top looking for someone else.

69360
04-25-2013, 05:52 PM
People who grew-up with Reagan, the fall of Communism, and the economic boom of the '90s. Once you get a taste of capitalism, it's hard to go back to anything else.

I'm in this age bracket and agree. It's also somewhat a pushback against how liberal our parent's generation was. I have a lot more respect for the "greatest generation" of my grandparents, the generation that won ww2.

Bastiat's The Law
04-25-2013, 05:58 PM
Hopefully Rand can pick up where Ron left off and engage a whole new generation of young freedom lovers. I think Obama's failure to succeed will leave even the millennials that put him over the top looking for someone else.
I agree. The youth will embolden Rand even more and over time more young people will be open to supporting him in return.

Krzysztof Lesiak
04-25-2013, 07:40 PM
Awesome! Sharing everywhere.

FSP-Rebel
04-25-2013, 08:12 PM
https://twitter.com/8Atlas2/status/327605689247735809

Christian Liberty
04-25-2013, 08:44 PM
I'm in this age bracket and agree. It's also somewhat a pushback against how liberal our parent's generation was. I have a lot more respect for the "greatest generation" of my grandparents, the generation that won ww2.

World War II could have, and should have been avoided. Josef Stalin was even worse than Hitler was, plus I'm a consistent noninterventionist no matter how bad the tyrant is.

supermario21
04-25-2013, 09:08 PM
World War II could have, and should have been avoided. Josef Stalin was even worse than Hitler was, plus I'm a consistent noninterventionist no matter how bad the tyrant is.

Agreed.

Shane Harris
04-26-2013, 10:31 AM
Exciting to be doing so well so early.

Brett85
04-26-2013, 10:58 AM
Exciting to be doing so well so early.

Yeah, except I'm worried that Rand might actually be peaking too soon. It's not really a good thing to be the front runner this early on.

asurfaholic
04-26-2013, 11:04 AM
That's my concern too. I just hope he is building real support, and not just superficial media built name recognition.

There is still lots of time for things to change, I fully expect a very damaging media attack and smear campaign as things get heated up. They tore ron down only 1 week ahead of Iowa.

supermario21
04-26-2013, 11:06 AM
I think Rand is going to be more steady than you give him credit for. He's not going to be a Bachmann "flavor of the day type." I honestly think that's going to be Rubio...Rand has had to ascend the hard way, making speeches, filibustering, penning op-eds, etc. Rubio just had to run against Charlie Crist to be labeled the next "golden boy."

asurfaholic
04-26-2013, 11:31 AM
I think Rand is going to be more steady than you give him credit for. He's not going to be a Bachmann "flavor of the day type." I honestly think that's going to be Rubio...Rand has had to ascend the hard way, making speeches, filibustering, penning op-eds, etc. Rubio just had to run against Charlie Crist to be labeled the next "golden boy."

Oo don't mistake my post for credit or lack thereof. I was expressing something thats been bugging the back of my mind.

I really see this as a huge growth of public support for the anti establishment. I also see this as a unlikely to flip group, but then I get nervous too.

I have not been involved in politics long enough to know what being ahead this early really means

supermario21
04-26-2013, 12:28 PM
Oo don't mistake my post for credit or lack thereof. I was expressing something thats been bugging the back of my mind.

I really see this as a huge growth of public support for the anti establishment. I also see this as a unlikely to flip group, but then I get nervous too.

I have not been involved in politics long enough to know what being ahead this early really means

No I totally understand your apprehension. The 08 cycle was the first one I followed and was glued since really...I sometimes think about this but I know Rand can debate, speak, etc much better than Bachmann. People aren't going to be running around calling Rand unintelligent, anti-intellectual, the like to attack him. All we're going to hear is that he's racist, his dad is a kook, etc. And Rand has already been dealing with those punches for 3 years and it hasn't hurt him yet.

VoluntaryAmerican
04-26-2013, 12:39 PM
I think Rand is going to be more steady than you give him credit for. He's not going to be a Bachmann "flavor of the day type." I honestly think that's going to be Rubio...Rand has had to ascend the hard way, making speeches, filibustering, penning op-eds, etc. Rubio just had to run against Charlie Crist to be labeled the next "golden boy."

Just wait till the debates... Rand is going to knock their socks off. He is becoming a great public speaker, despite the Cavuto gaffe.

Shane Harris
04-26-2013, 01:21 PM
Yeah, except I'm worried that Rand might actually be peaking too soon. It's not really a good thing to be the front runner this early on.

Romney was the presumed frontrunner going into the Primaries.

T.hill
04-26-2013, 01:22 PM
World War II could have, and should have been avoided. Josef Stalin was even worse than Hitler was, plus I'm a consistent noninterventionist no matter how bad the tyrant is.

I don't know how you objectively measure how bad a tyrant is, Stalin and Hitler were on par with each other as far as vague systems of tyrannical measurements are concerned. It's possible the United States intervention in WW2 could have been avoided, but not as easily as you say. Japan attacked the US and the entire Axis Powers alliance declared war on them and at that point the US was entirely justified in joining the war.

I'm not a fan of war, but I also try to impartially analyze the past while attempting not to interject my libertarian bias while doing so. What happened in the past happened, get over it.

KingNothing
04-26-2013, 01:39 PM
I think Rand is going to be more steady than you give him credit for. He's not going to be a Bachmann "flavor of the day type." I honestly think that's going to be Rubio...Rand has had to ascend the hard way, making speeches, filibustering, penning op-eds, etc. Rubio just had to run against Charlie Crist to be labeled the next "golden boy."

I'm not sure that Rubio is a flavor of the day. He's got some personality and has a loyal base. Clearly, though, Rand has more guts, a larger base, more cunning, and probably more aspirations. That all will come into play.

supermario21
04-26-2013, 01:42 PM
I don't know. Think about it, Rubio ran against Charlie Crist in a primary after Crist endorsed the stimulus. Any Republican, even Joe Scarborough, could have fired up "Tea Party" activists in that primary. Has he done anything notable in the Senate other than this amnesty? He was handed everything else. Rubio has been force fed to average Republicans whereas Rand has taken his loyal following of Paulites and put himself out there and won over even more folks.

jkob
04-26-2013, 02:06 PM
I imagine most of Rubio's supporters are simply Republicans that "think he can win", biggest reason being that he's brown. I don't think they're particularly loyal, I bet a lot of them supported Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, at varying amounts of time. I think most would abandon ship if another "more electable" candidate joined the race.

Rand's poll numbers are impressive since he has a built in base of support, it will take a lot of smearing to knock him down.

Rudeman
04-26-2013, 02:32 PM
Yeah, except I'm worried that Rand might actually be peaking too soon. It's not really a good thing to be the front runner this early on.

The last 2 nominees were front runners around this point, unless you think Rand will pull a Giuliani.

supermario21
04-26-2013, 02:41 PM
The last 2 nominees were front runners around this point, unless you think Rand will pull a Giuliani.

100% correct, and unlike Giuliani, Rand isn't going to be like, "Iowa, evangelicals and limited government conservatives. Screw them. New Hampshire-dumb libertarians and indies. South Carolina, all conservatives. Let's just go to Florida!"

Brett85
04-26-2013, 03:35 PM
The last 2 nominees were front runners around this point, unless you think Rand will pull a Giuliani.

McCain wasn't a front runner until right after New Hampshire I believe.

Rudeman
04-26-2013, 03:47 PM
McCain wasn't a front runner until right after New Hampshire I believe.

Nope:

Feb 4-6 2005 CNN Poll: Rudy Giuliani 33%, John McCain 30%, Jeb Bush 12%, Bill Frist 7%, Other 6%

April 18-21 2005 Marist Poll: Rudy Giuliani 27%, John McCain 20%, Jeb Bush 10%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Bill Frist 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, George Pataki 2%, Mitt Romney 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Haley Barbour 1%

June 14-15 2005 Fox Poll: Rudy Giuliani 29%, John McCain 26%, Newt Gingrich 9%, George Allen 3%, Bill Frist 3%, Mitt Romney 2%

June 20-22 2005 Zogby Poll: John McCain 29%, Condoleezza Rice 11%, Rudy Giuliani 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Dick Cheney 6%, Bill Frist 4%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Mitt Romney 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Sam Brownback 0%

Aug 5-7 2005 Gallup Poll: Rudy Giuliani 27%, John McCain 24%, Condoleezza Rice 19%, Bill Frist 8%, Mitt Romney 4%, George Pataki 3%, George Allen 3%, Sam Brownback 2%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Part y_2008_presidential_candidates

Brett85
04-26-2013, 03:52 PM
Nope:

Feb 4-6 2005 CNN Poll: Rudy Giuliani 33%, John McCain 30%, Jeb Bush 12%, Bill Frist 7%, Other 6%

April 18-21 2005 Marist Poll: Rudy Giuliani 27%, John McCain 20%, Jeb Bush 10%, Newt Gingrich 8%, Bill Frist 3%, Rick Santorum 3%, George Pataki 2%, Mitt Romney 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Haley Barbour 1%

June 14-15 2005 Fox Poll: Rudy Giuliani 29%, John McCain 26%, Newt Gingrich 9%, George Allen 3%, Bill Frist 3%, Mitt Romney 2%

June 20-22 2005 Zogby Poll: John McCain 29%, Condoleezza Rice 11%, Rudy Giuliani 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Dick Cheney 6%, Bill Frist 4%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Mitt Romney 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Chuck Hagel 1%, Sam Brownback 0%

Aug 5-7 2005 Gallup Poll: Rudy Giuliani 27%, John McCain 24%, Condoleezza Rice 19%, Bill Frist 8%, Mitt Romney 4%, George Pataki 3%, George Allen 3%, Sam Brownback 2%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Part y_2008_presidential_candidates

Ok, I stand corrected. I think maybe he was the front runner early on, slid in the polls for a while, and then came back up in the polls around the time of the New Hampshire primary.

Rudeman
04-26-2013, 04:05 PM
Ok, I stand corrected. I think maybe he was the front runner early on, slid in the polls for a while, and then came back up in the polls around the time of the New Hampshire primary.

Yea McCain started to drop mid 2007, but he was recovering by the end of the 2007 (before Iowa or NH). If you look at the link I provided in the other post you'll see the mid-late Dec polls had McCain back in the lead or in 2nd.

KingNothing
04-26-2013, 04:06 PM
Ok, I stand corrected. I think maybe he was the front runner early on, slid in the polls for a while, and then came back up in the polls around the time of the New Hampshire primary.


This is accurate. McCain was a front runner then ran into massive problems with campaign, couldn't raise any money, and re-staffed, then did well in NH and built on it.

TheTyke
04-26-2013, 06:32 PM
Why is this poll so much different than the WMUR poll? PPP has been pretty accurate in primaries as I recall.

In any case, I recall in 2012, there was a candidate of the month shooting to the top of the polls, while Ron was slowly and consistently moving up. I am hoping Rand is similar - gaining steadily, and the media and establishment won't be able to put this genie back in the bottle once it's out. But since he has broadened appeal into many less determined groups, we will have to see if some of that is as fickle as those supporting the candidate of the month in 2012. No mistake, there is a lot of work ahead of us, and if we haven't started clearing the path for him, we need to catch up... but this is the best opportunity we may ever have for a real liberty president!!

Rudeman
04-26-2013, 06:42 PM
The WMUR included more candidates: Ayotte, Huntsman, Santorum, Cruz, Walker, Portman and Thune.

Keith and stuff
04-26-2013, 06:44 PM
Why is this poll so much different than the WMUR poll? PPP has been pretty accurate in primaries as I recall.
They were taken at different times and used different candidates, among other things.

JJ2
04-26-2013, 07:58 PM
Yea that's why I said (or meant to say) he's going to have that problem in states where its required to register as a Republican and I would guess its a majority of states that have that requirement.

That won't matter if he wins Iowa and NH--he'll have the momentum. That's why it is critical that he win those two states.

Mr.NoSmile
04-27-2013, 11:28 AM
Well, according to the New Hampshire Republican Liberty Caucus' page, they're apparently accepting donations for an outreach project. Possibly a way to get voters? Grab attention toward both the Republican Party and liberty ideals? Who knows? But looks like any assistance would help if it goes toward the greater goal of putting New Hampshire in the win column.

http://www.rlc.org/about/chapters/nh/

PaulConventionWV
04-27-2013, 11:45 AM
Yeah, except I'm worried that Rand might actually be peaking too soon. It's not really a good thing to be the front runner this early on.

Wow. The primary is 3 years away. How are we even discussing "peaking"? People need to chill the freak out and not pay attention to these polls, especially this early. I don't even want to call it early, because that implies the race has already started when it really hasn't.

PaleoPaul
04-27-2013, 06:07 PM
Yeah, except I'm worried that Rand might actually be peaking too soon. It's not really a good thing to be the front runner this early on.
Bingo. Hillary Clinton was the 2008 Democrat front-runner ever since November 3, 2004, the day after the 2004 Presidential Election. Yet guess who won 4 years later...

ican'tvote
04-27-2013, 06:22 PM
The early front-runners tend to stick around in the republican primary; the democratic polls are not as useful at this point.
Nate Silver did an article about it:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/is-it-too-early-for-2016-polls/

Assuming that trend continues in 2016, Rand just has to stay in the top 2-3 to have a good shot at the nomination.

eleganz
04-27-2013, 06:24 PM
Bingo. Hillary Clinton was the 2008 Democrat front-runner ever since November 3, 2004, the day after the 2004 Presidential Election. Yet guess who won 4 years later...


Romney was the front runner for the entire 2012 GOP primaries, who became the eventual GOP nominee?

wormyguy
04-27-2013, 08:25 PM
Romney was the front runner for the entire 2012 GOP primaries, who became the eventual GOP nominee?

Actually, Romney pretty consistently polled third behind Huckabee and Palin back when they were still being included in polls, then Donald Trump led, then Michelle Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Newt Gingrich, then Herman Cain, then Romney, and he still briefly fell behind Gingrich and Santorum again during the actual primaries. What he did have the entire time is a large money advantage over everyone else and institutional support from the establishment; also, he never fell lower than second or third in the polls.

eleganz
04-28-2013, 01:06 AM
Actually, Romney pretty consistently polled third behind Huckabee and Palin back when they were still being included in polls, then Donald Trump led, then Michelle Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Newt Gingrich, then Herman Cain, then Romney, and he still briefly fell behind Gingrich and Santorum again during the actual primaries. What he did have the entire time is a large money advantage over everyone else and institutional support from the establishment; also, he never fell lower than second or third in the polls.

If you take the times he was leading the pack and compare to the times he wasn't, you'd see he was leading the 'entire' (not really, but mostly) time. Nationally, he was always the recognized frontrunner aka the guy to beat aka our 'establishment' candidate.

Origanalist
04-28-2013, 01:13 AM
If you take the times he was leading the pack and compare to the times he wasn't, you'd see he was leading the 'entire' (not really, but mostly) time. Nationally, he was always the recognized frontrunner aka the guy to beat aka our 'establishment' candidate.

He was always " the recognized frontrunner " by the media.

Tinnuhana
04-28-2013, 05:42 AM
Nice. What do all the elderly republican women like about Rubio?
He reminds them of Desi Arnaz.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_g4-FqbWh9w