itshappening
04-08-2013, 10:46 PM
Interesting events today.
First this morning we had Reid denouncing the letter he got from "some Republicans" (i.e Rand) threatening to filibuster the gun bill:
'“I get a letter from a group of Republicans saying don’t touch it, that flies in the face of what 90 percent of Americans want,” Reid said. “Republicans disagree with the measure, let them vote against it.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/harry-reid-gop-filibuster-threats-89754.html?hp=l3
Then we had the president attending a campaign style event in which he declared:
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“Some back in Washington are already floating the idea that they might use political stunts to prevent votes on any of these reforms,” Obama said. “They’re not just saying they’ll vote ‘no’ on ideas that almost all Americans support. They’re saying they won’t allow any votes on them at all. They’re saying your opinion doesn’t matter. And that’s not right.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/obama-kicks-off-last-gun-control-push-89783.html?hp=t1_3
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If you watch the video the president whipped the 3,000+ CT crowd up into a partisan frenzy. CT is a liberal state. The president is in town. Let's go and see him and support him is the thinking behind this. There's no actual campaign or valid argument for gun control as nothing they're proposing would have stopped Lanza. It's just rah-rah-rah liberals supporting their president. How nice of them.
So what we have here is two of the most powerful politicians in the country attacking Rand (and by extension Lee and Cruz but let's not kid ourselves Rand is the front man for this) because he has threatened to force them to get 60 votes to proceed on any gun bill.
There is no gun bill yet so what does this mean?
It means they dont have the votes. Reid is complaining like a bitter old man and Obama is trying to ratchet up the pressure in order to peel away any Republicans. He even flew back to Washington with some relatives of dead kids for good measure.
The problem for Obama and the reason he has to ratchet up the pressure like this to try and find the votes is that he has Landreiu, Pryor, Begich, Baucus and Hagan very unwilling to break the filibuster and be seen to support advancing a gun control bill as they're up in red states in 2014. Therefore he needs to find 10 GOP votes. He might be able to peel away 5 or so but finding 10 is surely impossible.
Obama is hoping that his red state Democrats commit political suicide by ratcheting up the pressure and organizing meetings with relatives of dead children. If he can't convince them then he's got to find more GOP votes to pass whatever he's trying to pass. This is why we hear Toomey is involved in something. Coburn is involved in something (or was involved) Grassley is involved in something and of course there's always McCain and Graham eagerly waiting to sell out conservatives.
Conclusion:
Obama and Reid are still a few votes short to advance anything on gun control. He might be able to find more GOP votes with his emotional appeals but if a core of 38 hold the line then he can't do anything. Much will depend now on Rand and how he makes the argument this week and if he can make sure the line is held. Outside groups need to keep pressure on the red state Democrats to make them feel uneasy about voting to break this filibuster thus ensuring its success and making it more difficult as they will need to flip more GOP votes. The more GOP votes they need to flip the more difficult the task is.
Rand really needs to hold a press conference with every journalist in Washington there and push back against the emotional appeals and ensure his colleagues stay in line.
First this morning we had Reid denouncing the letter he got from "some Republicans" (i.e Rand) threatening to filibuster the gun bill:
'“I get a letter from a group of Republicans saying don’t touch it, that flies in the face of what 90 percent of Americans want,” Reid said. “Republicans disagree with the measure, let them vote against it.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/harry-reid-gop-filibuster-threats-89754.html?hp=l3
Then we had the president attending a campaign style event in which he declared:
-
“Some back in Washington are already floating the idea that they might use political stunts to prevent votes on any of these reforms,” Obama said. “They’re not just saying they’ll vote ‘no’ on ideas that almost all Americans support. They’re saying they won’t allow any votes on them at all. They’re saying your opinion doesn’t matter. And that’s not right.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/obama-kicks-off-last-gun-control-push-89783.html?hp=t1_3
-
If you watch the video the president whipped the 3,000+ CT crowd up into a partisan frenzy. CT is a liberal state. The president is in town. Let's go and see him and support him is the thinking behind this. There's no actual campaign or valid argument for gun control as nothing they're proposing would have stopped Lanza. It's just rah-rah-rah liberals supporting their president. How nice of them.
So what we have here is two of the most powerful politicians in the country attacking Rand (and by extension Lee and Cruz but let's not kid ourselves Rand is the front man for this) because he has threatened to force them to get 60 votes to proceed on any gun bill.
There is no gun bill yet so what does this mean?
It means they dont have the votes. Reid is complaining like a bitter old man and Obama is trying to ratchet up the pressure in order to peel away any Republicans. He even flew back to Washington with some relatives of dead kids for good measure.
The problem for Obama and the reason he has to ratchet up the pressure like this to try and find the votes is that he has Landreiu, Pryor, Begich, Baucus and Hagan very unwilling to break the filibuster and be seen to support advancing a gun control bill as they're up in red states in 2014. Therefore he needs to find 10 GOP votes. He might be able to peel away 5 or so but finding 10 is surely impossible.
Obama is hoping that his red state Democrats commit political suicide by ratcheting up the pressure and organizing meetings with relatives of dead children. If he can't convince them then he's got to find more GOP votes to pass whatever he's trying to pass. This is why we hear Toomey is involved in something. Coburn is involved in something (or was involved) Grassley is involved in something and of course there's always McCain and Graham eagerly waiting to sell out conservatives.
Conclusion:
Obama and Reid are still a few votes short to advance anything on gun control. He might be able to find more GOP votes with his emotional appeals but if a core of 38 hold the line then he can't do anything. Much will depend now on Rand and how he makes the argument this week and if he can make sure the line is held. Outside groups need to keep pressure on the red state Democrats to make them feel uneasy about voting to break this filibuster thus ensuring its success and making it more difficult as they will need to flip more GOP votes. The more GOP votes they need to flip the more difficult the task is.
Rand really needs to hold a press conference with every journalist in Washington there and push back against the emotional appeals and ensure his colleagues stay in line.