Cardinal Red
11-24-2007, 06:18 PM
Note: This is a long post, but I believe it is an important one. If you find this information useful you are encouraged to repost it wherever you wish.
While I, like every other supporter of Dr. Paul am thrilled with the campaign’s increasing prominence, I am concerned that we (and the campaign) are not getting out the message about the full and extraordinary extent of Dr. Paul’s unprecedented fundraising success—Although a few stories over the last couple of days have been encouraging. Our failure to fully communicate the incredible strength of this campaign is allowing some members of the media to continue to portray Dr. Paul as being outside the first tier of candidates in which is so obviously belongs.
Below is a list of fact-based messages that I hope the campaign and the grassroots can use to counteract those who are currently giving this campaign less recognition than it deserves. I’ll give the messages first, and explain the facts behind them subsequently.
HIGHLIGHTS
Ron Paul’s campaign is going to raise far more money online this quarter than any other Presidential candidate in the history of Presidential primaries. (Howard Dean never raised more than $8 Million online in a quarter)- Hillary Clinton raised $8 Million online in one quarter this year, but according to third-party accounts, much of that is likely offline fundraising that is merely “donated” online. In contrast, Ron Paul figures to (conservatively) raise more than $14 Million online this quarter out of a total of at least $16 million
Ron Paul’s number of donors this quarter will dwarf the number of donors to any other Republican this quarter—almost certainly more than twice the number of any other Republican
Ron Paul’s campaign may end the quarter with more total donors than any other Republican since the campaign began, despite our late start and scant media attention. We already have close to 83,000 unique donors ths quarter according to the traking site Ron Paul Graphs. The leading contenders going in to this quarter had only about 100,000 donors for the entire campaign.
While some compare our fundraising to Howard Dean’s, Ron Paul’s candidacy has much stronger momentum than Howard Dean’s did at the same time in this presidential cycle. (And Howard Dean was certainly treated by the media as a first-tier candidate) . Ron Paul will raise more money in this quarter than Dean did in his best quarter in 2004—without any of Dean’s support from establishment politicians such as Al Gore, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin and powerful unions such as AFSCME and SEIU. In contrast, Ron Paul has built his campaign to record levels without a single congressional or gubernatorial endorsement. (Our most prominent endorser is probably Barry Goldwater Jr.) This entire campaign is fueled by the power of Americans who have heard Ron Paul and are excited about his message, not people waiting for the media, unions, or politicians to tell them what to think. When the politicians wake up and begin endorsing Ron Paul, our momentum will grow even stronger.
Ron Paul has raised this money despite his having been treated far less seriously by media than any of the other major Republican candidates—no magazine covers, almost no Sunday news shows, relatively sparse television coverage, etc.
The vast majority of Ron Paul’s fundraising has all been done by volunteers--not paid political professionals or Washington insiders.
Ron Paul has built all of his momentum despite starting the campaign with almost no national name recognition and having spent only $3 Million in total expenditures through October,-- in contrast to tens of millions of dollars of expenditures from other “first tier candidates” along with tens of millions more worth of free media that these candidates have received from the mainstream media
It is entirely possible that the Ron Paul campaign will raise twice as much as any other Republican this quarter, the last before the primaries begin. Unlike our wasteful competitors, we are just beginning to spend our money now as the race gets serious and the average voter begins to pay real attention to the campaign
All of this fundraising does not include the enormous investment of volunteer time and fund, unconnected to the official campaigns from Ron Paul supporters, an amount that is far above that of any other campaign.
THE DETAILS
Ron Paul’s fundraising trajectory is nothing short of extraordinary. As of this writing, he has already raised more than $9.1 million and given current fundraising pace, he will have raised (conservatively) at least $10 Million dollars by the time of the Tea Party money bomb December 16. Again, being very conservative, let’s say that this money bomb only equals the previous money bomb and gives us another $4.3 Million. As we already have more donors signed up for this money bomb than we did for November 5th that seems to be a very conservative estimate.
Add in at least an additional $1 million in offline contributions to be tallied (we had slightly more than $1 million raised offline in the first half of the quarter.) Then add in (again extremely conservatively) another $1 million for the last 15 days after the Tea Party. This gives us a total of $16.3 million for the quarter, which (again to be conservative) we will round down to $16 million.. I consider this the likely floor for the campaign’s fundraising this quarter. Anything less than $16 million would count as both a huge disappointment and surprise to anyone associated with this campaign. Frankly, a number in the $17-20 million range is probably more likely.
How strong of a performance is it to raise $16 Million?
Well for one thing, it is almost certainly far more than any other of the so-called “top-tier” Republicans will raise this quarter. How do I know this is true?
According to Official Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports and campaign disclosures released at the end of the third quarter (Sept 30) the other major Republican campaigns raised dollars that could be used for the primary in the following amounts:
Giuliani raised $10.5 million
Romney raised $9.5 million
Thompson raised $9.3 million*
McCain raised $5.7 million*
Note, The Thompson and McCain funds are for primary and general—I was not able to find primary only dollars for them, but I belive McCain raised less than $5 million that could be spent in the primary and Thompson very likely raised less than $9 million.
For each of these candidates, third quarter fundraising was down substantially from the previous quarter, indicating negative momentum.
Romney: Fundraising down 29%
Guilliani: Fundraising down 40%
McCain: Fundraising down 55%
Thompson did not enter the campaign until the third quarter and so no accurate comparisons can be made, but after at first being hailed as the “Republican savior” his momentum has cratered and his standing in the polls has plummeted—making it very unlikely that his fundraising performance has improved this quarter.
In contrast, Ron Paul’s fundraising rose 114% in the third quarter and seems certain to rise more than 200% in the fourth quarter.
Now looking at the other candidates, All with negative fundraising momentum, how can we estimate their chances of increasing their fundraising in Q4—. The best comparison is to look at the Democratic challengers to President Bush from 2004. Of these major Democratic challengers (those raising more than $1 Million in both the third and fourth quarters of 2003) only Wesley Clark (who only entered the race in late q3) had a large increase in in Q4 fundraising. Every other candidate was down significantly, save Howard Dean, who, benefitting from endorsements from Al Gore, major unions and numerous other political figures, as well as media anointing as the frontrunner, managed to raise his fundraising a modest 6%. Every other candidate’s fundraising fell at least 15%
Candidate Total Q3 Total Q4 Increase Q3-q4
Clark $3,484,109 $10,177,447 192%
Dean $14,762,373 $15,650,903 6%
Edwards $2,071,961 $1,745,640 -16%
Gephardt $3,773,580 $2,837,228 -25%
Kerry $3,873,040 $2,248,683 -42%
Kucinich $1,647,883 $1,354,364 -18%
Lieberman $3,530,345 $2,088,939 -41%
Compared to the 2004 Democratic candidates, not only was momentum among major Republican candidates negative, unlike most of these Democratic candidates, their fundraising dollars were overwhelmingly top-heavy as can be seen from the chart below, which compares the amount of money raised from small donors (less than $200 vs. the amount raised from large donors >$2000, most of whom have given the maximum $2300 donation and will not be able to contribute again until the general election.
%of dollars from <$200 Donors
Paul 50
Giuliani 8
McCain 22
Thompson 33
Romney 14
% of dollars from >$2000 Donors
Paul 17
Giuliani 69
McCain 52
Thompson 40
Romney 62
In contrast, Ron Paul dominates the field in grassroots small-dollar donors, the type that will be able to donate again and again. Given the fact a huge majority of the other candidates dollars are from maxed out donors, it seems overwhelmingly unlikely that they will be able to reverse their declining fundraising unless they can magically find new big-dollar donors, and frankly, it is overwhelmingly likely that they will decrease, perhaps significantly. In summary, I would not be at all surprised to see Ron Paul raise twice as much as any other Republican candidate this quarter.
Overall we have nothing but great news. We just need to make sure we are getting it out and making it known. That goes especially for the official campaign, but also for us in the grassroots.
A final note—as many of these statements necessarily involve projections, though very conservative projections (i.e. I would be willing to bet a lot of my own money that we will raise more than $16 million this quarter -- any takers from the other campaigns?) they cannot be fully proven until the end of the quarter. Nonetheless, we should begin talking about them NOW—by the time the quarter end rolls around, the focus will be entirely on the polls and early primaries. We need to make sure the media acknowledges our fundraising dominance and first-tier status today
If other candidates want to refute our facts let them release their own fundraising and donors numbers for the quarter. Even if (and this is highly doubtful) they are doing much better than logic and history suggest they will be, their numbers will almost certainly not better than ours. And, in the unlikely event that Romney, Giuliani and the rest want to compete to show that they are “competitive” with our campaign such comparisons will only indicate our strength and work to our benefit.
BOTTOM LINE
We have a national, mainstream campaign, by far the most energized volunteer base, and all of the momentum—our opponents are grasping at the same failed ideas and going back to the same few wealthy donors who haven’t yet clued in that the old strategies will only lead to a Republican defeat in 2008. We are the only Republican campaign with a grassroots base and the enthusiasm, message and candidate to win in the general election. Now, all we need to do is make sure the media hears about it.
-- Cardinal Red
While I, like every other supporter of Dr. Paul am thrilled with the campaign’s increasing prominence, I am concerned that we (and the campaign) are not getting out the message about the full and extraordinary extent of Dr. Paul’s unprecedented fundraising success—Although a few stories over the last couple of days have been encouraging. Our failure to fully communicate the incredible strength of this campaign is allowing some members of the media to continue to portray Dr. Paul as being outside the first tier of candidates in which is so obviously belongs.
Below is a list of fact-based messages that I hope the campaign and the grassroots can use to counteract those who are currently giving this campaign less recognition than it deserves. I’ll give the messages first, and explain the facts behind them subsequently.
HIGHLIGHTS
Ron Paul’s campaign is going to raise far more money online this quarter than any other Presidential candidate in the history of Presidential primaries. (Howard Dean never raised more than $8 Million online in a quarter)- Hillary Clinton raised $8 Million online in one quarter this year, but according to third-party accounts, much of that is likely offline fundraising that is merely “donated” online. In contrast, Ron Paul figures to (conservatively) raise more than $14 Million online this quarter out of a total of at least $16 million
Ron Paul’s number of donors this quarter will dwarf the number of donors to any other Republican this quarter—almost certainly more than twice the number of any other Republican
Ron Paul’s campaign may end the quarter with more total donors than any other Republican since the campaign began, despite our late start and scant media attention. We already have close to 83,000 unique donors ths quarter according to the traking site Ron Paul Graphs. The leading contenders going in to this quarter had only about 100,000 donors for the entire campaign.
While some compare our fundraising to Howard Dean’s, Ron Paul’s candidacy has much stronger momentum than Howard Dean’s did at the same time in this presidential cycle. (And Howard Dean was certainly treated by the media as a first-tier candidate) . Ron Paul will raise more money in this quarter than Dean did in his best quarter in 2004—without any of Dean’s support from establishment politicians such as Al Gore, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin and powerful unions such as AFSCME and SEIU. In contrast, Ron Paul has built his campaign to record levels without a single congressional or gubernatorial endorsement. (Our most prominent endorser is probably Barry Goldwater Jr.) This entire campaign is fueled by the power of Americans who have heard Ron Paul and are excited about his message, not people waiting for the media, unions, or politicians to tell them what to think. When the politicians wake up and begin endorsing Ron Paul, our momentum will grow even stronger.
Ron Paul has raised this money despite his having been treated far less seriously by media than any of the other major Republican candidates—no magazine covers, almost no Sunday news shows, relatively sparse television coverage, etc.
The vast majority of Ron Paul’s fundraising has all been done by volunteers--not paid political professionals or Washington insiders.
Ron Paul has built all of his momentum despite starting the campaign with almost no national name recognition and having spent only $3 Million in total expenditures through October,-- in contrast to tens of millions of dollars of expenditures from other “first tier candidates” along with tens of millions more worth of free media that these candidates have received from the mainstream media
It is entirely possible that the Ron Paul campaign will raise twice as much as any other Republican this quarter, the last before the primaries begin. Unlike our wasteful competitors, we are just beginning to spend our money now as the race gets serious and the average voter begins to pay real attention to the campaign
All of this fundraising does not include the enormous investment of volunteer time and fund, unconnected to the official campaigns from Ron Paul supporters, an amount that is far above that of any other campaign.
THE DETAILS
Ron Paul’s fundraising trajectory is nothing short of extraordinary. As of this writing, he has already raised more than $9.1 million and given current fundraising pace, he will have raised (conservatively) at least $10 Million dollars by the time of the Tea Party money bomb December 16. Again, being very conservative, let’s say that this money bomb only equals the previous money bomb and gives us another $4.3 Million. As we already have more donors signed up for this money bomb than we did for November 5th that seems to be a very conservative estimate.
Add in at least an additional $1 million in offline contributions to be tallied (we had slightly more than $1 million raised offline in the first half of the quarter.) Then add in (again extremely conservatively) another $1 million for the last 15 days after the Tea Party. This gives us a total of $16.3 million for the quarter, which (again to be conservative) we will round down to $16 million.. I consider this the likely floor for the campaign’s fundraising this quarter. Anything less than $16 million would count as both a huge disappointment and surprise to anyone associated with this campaign. Frankly, a number in the $17-20 million range is probably more likely.
How strong of a performance is it to raise $16 Million?
Well for one thing, it is almost certainly far more than any other of the so-called “top-tier” Republicans will raise this quarter. How do I know this is true?
According to Official Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports and campaign disclosures released at the end of the third quarter (Sept 30) the other major Republican campaigns raised dollars that could be used for the primary in the following amounts:
Giuliani raised $10.5 million
Romney raised $9.5 million
Thompson raised $9.3 million*
McCain raised $5.7 million*
Note, The Thompson and McCain funds are for primary and general—I was not able to find primary only dollars for them, but I belive McCain raised less than $5 million that could be spent in the primary and Thompson very likely raised less than $9 million.
For each of these candidates, third quarter fundraising was down substantially from the previous quarter, indicating negative momentum.
Romney: Fundraising down 29%
Guilliani: Fundraising down 40%
McCain: Fundraising down 55%
Thompson did not enter the campaign until the third quarter and so no accurate comparisons can be made, but after at first being hailed as the “Republican savior” his momentum has cratered and his standing in the polls has plummeted—making it very unlikely that his fundraising performance has improved this quarter.
In contrast, Ron Paul’s fundraising rose 114% in the third quarter and seems certain to rise more than 200% in the fourth quarter.
Now looking at the other candidates, All with negative fundraising momentum, how can we estimate their chances of increasing their fundraising in Q4—. The best comparison is to look at the Democratic challengers to President Bush from 2004. Of these major Democratic challengers (those raising more than $1 Million in both the third and fourth quarters of 2003) only Wesley Clark (who only entered the race in late q3) had a large increase in in Q4 fundraising. Every other candidate was down significantly, save Howard Dean, who, benefitting from endorsements from Al Gore, major unions and numerous other political figures, as well as media anointing as the frontrunner, managed to raise his fundraising a modest 6%. Every other candidate’s fundraising fell at least 15%
Candidate Total Q3 Total Q4 Increase Q3-q4
Clark $3,484,109 $10,177,447 192%
Dean $14,762,373 $15,650,903 6%
Edwards $2,071,961 $1,745,640 -16%
Gephardt $3,773,580 $2,837,228 -25%
Kerry $3,873,040 $2,248,683 -42%
Kucinich $1,647,883 $1,354,364 -18%
Lieberman $3,530,345 $2,088,939 -41%
Compared to the 2004 Democratic candidates, not only was momentum among major Republican candidates negative, unlike most of these Democratic candidates, their fundraising dollars were overwhelmingly top-heavy as can be seen from the chart below, which compares the amount of money raised from small donors (less than $200 vs. the amount raised from large donors >$2000, most of whom have given the maximum $2300 donation and will not be able to contribute again until the general election.
%of dollars from <$200 Donors
Paul 50
Giuliani 8
McCain 22
Thompson 33
Romney 14
% of dollars from >$2000 Donors
Paul 17
Giuliani 69
McCain 52
Thompson 40
Romney 62
In contrast, Ron Paul dominates the field in grassroots small-dollar donors, the type that will be able to donate again and again. Given the fact a huge majority of the other candidates dollars are from maxed out donors, it seems overwhelmingly unlikely that they will be able to reverse their declining fundraising unless they can magically find new big-dollar donors, and frankly, it is overwhelmingly likely that they will decrease, perhaps significantly. In summary, I would not be at all surprised to see Ron Paul raise twice as much as any other Republican candidate this quarter.
Overall we have nothing but great news. We just need to make sure we are getting it out and making it known. That goes especially for the official campaign, but also for us in the grassroots.
A final note—as many of these statements necessarily involve projections, though very conservative projections (i.e. I would be willing to bet a lot of my own money that we will raise more than $16 million this quarter -- any takers from the other campaigns?) they cannot be fully proven until the end of the quarter. Nonetheless, we should begin talking about them NOW—by the time the quarter end rolls around, the focus will be entirely on the polls and early primaries. We need to make sure the media acknowledges our fundraising dominance and first-tier status today
If other candidates want to refute our facts let them release their own fundraising and donors numbers for the quarter. Even if (and this is highly doubtful) they are doing much better than logic and history suggest they will be, their numbers will almost certainly not better than ours. And, in the unlikely event that Romney, Giuliani and the rest want to compete to show that they are “competitive” with our campaign such comparisons will only indicate our strength and work to our benefit.
BOTTOM LINE
We have a national, mainstream campaign, by far the most energized volunteer base, and all of the momentum—our opponents are grasping at the same failed ideas and going back to the same few wealthy donors who haven’t yet clued in that the old strategies will only lead to a Republican defeat in 2008. We are the only Republican campaign with a grassroots base and the enthusiasm, message and candidate to win in the general election. Now, all we need to do is make sure the media hears about it.
-- Cardinal Red