Is it too early for 2016 polls? (Nate Silver/538)

[Uriah]

Interesting read.





There are more than 1,000 days before the 2016 Iowa caucuses, but several polls have already been released testing national support for prospective candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations for president.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has a huge lead on the Democratic side. Surveys show the possible Republican field as more competitive, with Senator Marco Rubio of Florida out front and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey clustered with several other candidates in the top tier.

But isn’t it too early to even look at such polls? Aren’t they more valuable as entertainment than information?

Not necessarily.

An examination of pre-midterm presidential polling since 1984 — surveys conducted from the day after the preceding presidential vote to the day before the midterm elections — shows that while early primary polls are not determinative, they are not meaningless, either.

More at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/is-it-too-early-for-2016-polls/

[Smart3]

Hillary Runs, Hillary Wins.

It's that simple. If she doesn't, then it will be Gov vs Gov, most likely Cuomo vs Christie.

[AuH20]

Hillary Runs, Hillary Wins.

It's that simple. If she doesn't, then it will be Gov vs Gov, most likely Cuomo vs Christie.

Maybe not the worst thing to happen if the economy doesn't crash by 2015.

[itshappening]

Here's one for the likes of Nate Silver to ponder: the party out of power for 8 years tends to win next time

Only Bush in modern times managed to buck it and that was when the economy was good. The economy will be wrecked by 2016 when Obama is finished with it so Clinton will have a tough time selling an Obama third term

[AuH20]

Here's one for the likes of Nate Silver to ponder: the party out of power for 8 years tends to win next time

Only Bush in modern times managed to buck it and that was when the economy was good. The economy will be wrecked by 2016 when Obama is finished with it so Clinton will have a tough time selling an Obama third term

Two problems. The sheeple do not think logically.
(1) The Clinton era for some inexplicable reason is fondly remembered for prosperity, thanks to underhanded dealings, accounting gimmicks, etc.
(2) The fembots want the glass ceiling to be shattered very badly.

The only real wildcard is if her appearance degrades even further.

[itshappening]

Two problems. The sheeple do not think logically.
(1) The Clinton era for some inexplicable reason is fondly remembered for prosperity, thanks to underhanded dealings, accounting gimmicks, etc.
(2) The fembots want the glass ceiling to be shattered very badly.

The only real wildcard is if her appearance degrades even further.

Botox takes care of that.

She will be like 70 by then... I'm not convinced that she is so formidable either in the primary or general. She was supposed to win last time but got beat by 1st term senator and she was a huge favorite then too. She will definitely have a challenge from the hard left by someone who is younger and slicker. We'll see.