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View Full Version : Who will win the CPAC straw poll this weekend ?




rubioneocon
03-12-2013, 07:28 AM
http://conservative.org/cpac/2013/

From the list of speakers above, jus' who do you think is gonna follow in the footsteps of the past CPAC wins . . . . I wonder . . .


http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/RonPaul001.jpg


maybe it'll be Parah Sailin' or Donald Trump . . .
or even John Ellis Bush aka Jeb . . . an ex-Governor of the great state of Florida site of the last GOP Convention fwiw

http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/Jeb-Bush-Hillaryjpg_full_380_zpsb036cc37.jpg

Oh, it could be the fav of the GOP establishment, their savior . . . that Senator from Florida -

http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/rubio1_zps7ab7f817.gif


or maybe Mitt Willard wants to schmooze with the past winners still . . .

http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/ronpaulmittens.jpg


Honestly, after all the interviews in the media etc, it could be a toss-up between the Senator from Texas and the junior Senator from Kentucky . . . imho


http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/sencruz012a_zps38aa4c2b.jpg



http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/rand001bc_zpsdcc2f327.jpg


http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/rand2016_zpsa0495fab.png

mz10
03-12-2013, 09:23 AM
Any votes for Cruz are essentially votes for Rand imho. Cruz isn't running for President, especially not against Rand.

Havax
03-12-2013, 09:40 AM
I expect Rubio to win unless we show up in droves.

kathy88
03-12-2013, 09:50 AM
I expect Rubio to win unless we show up in droves.

BARF

mz10
03-12-2013, 09:52 AM
I expect Rubio to win unless we show up in droves.

I disagree. A lot has changed in a few months.

Todd
03-12-2013, 09:53 AM
I expect Rubio to win unless we show up in droves.

my how this forum has changed.... seeing as little effort as their was here to take charge of this thing

TokenLibertarianGuy
03-12-2013, 09:55 AM
Any votes for Cruz are essentially votes for Rand imho. Cruz isn't running for President, especially not against Rand.

The bad thing is a lot of the constitutionalist and conservative vote might get split between Rand and Cruz, giving tools like Rubio and Jeb and advantage.

It would be awesome if the results were:
1) Rand
2) Cruz
3) DeMint

Barrex
03-12-2013, 10:05 AM
Why didnt you guys organize this year?

Suzu
03-12-2013, 10:15 AM
http://conservative.org/cpac/2013/
I tried to look at the list, but "This website is offline - No cached version is available" was the message I saw.

TokenLibertarianGuy
03-12-2013, 10:58 AM
Why didnt you guys organize this year?

Who says we haven't?
https://www.facebook.com/events/348798078550472/

itshappening
03-12-2013, 11:02 AM
After the filibuster Rand will win it easy.

They're already planning to stand with Rand and that will generate further buzz among delegates.

It's a lock.

Barrex
03-12-2013, 11:06 AM
Who says we haven't?
https://www.facebook.com/events/348798078550472/

OK. I should have said: seriously organized.
Few threads here and 1-2 on dailypaul that are forgotten. Group with only 2600 invited (and how many members does YAL or C4L got???); 286 going and 112 maybes doesnt seems that much or organized to me...
I am not attacking anyone personally but I simply dont see it.

I wish you good luck there.

Carlybee
03-12-2013, 12:15 PM
Any votes for Cruz are essentially votes for Rand imho. Cruz isn't running for President, especially not against Rand.

He may not endorse Rand in the end either. He does a lot of neocon chest thumping on the side.

compromise
03-12-2013, 12:16 PM
Rand will win. The timing of that 13 hour filibuster pretty much guaranteed that.

T.hill
03-12-2013, 12:54 PM
I don't think I can ever guarantee Rand will get the Republican nomination and I understand the skepticism over that, but to say Rand doesn't have a good chance to win CPAC, that's goin a little over the top.

Kords21
03-12-2013, 12:55 PM
Unless Rand gets up there and does nothing but praise Obama, Obamacare and everything Obama, I think the strawpoll is his to lose.

TomtheTinker
03-12-2013, 01:00 PM
Why didnt you guys organize this year?

Why didn't you?

4 years before election. Rand while a great spokesman for freedom and the constitution..he isn't Ron

TokenLibertarianGuy
03-12-2013, 01:05 PM
Why didn't you?

He lives in Croatia...

TomtheTinker
03-12-2013, 01:25 PM
^^^good reason.

Rocco
03-12-2013, 01:42 PM
The following years the following number of people voted in the CPAC Straw Poll:

2012 3,408 voted
2011 3,742 voted
2010 2,395 voted
2009 1,757 voted

The last 4 winners have had 38% (Romney in 2012), 30% (Paul in 2011), 38% (Paul in 2010) and 20% (Romney in 2009)

The average number of voters over the last cycle was 2,826 and the average winner won with 31.5%. If everything comes out to the exact average, we need 890 voters to win the straw poll.

We need 1,422 voters to get 38% of the highest total of voters, which was in 2011 where we actually only got 30%. 1,422 is the "magic number" in that it'd be completely unprecedented to lose this event with that number of voters.

We need 1,295 voters to equal the largest number of total voters ever gathered for one candidate, which was Romney in 2012. By CPAC Romney was pretty much the decided upon candidate, so this type of unity was heavily influenced by that.

We only need 352 voters to win if we are in the equivalent year in the election cycle to the last cycle (2009).

So, as you can see, there is a WIDE variety of possible numbers that we will need to win the straw poll. If turnout is like 2009 levels, then we have a facebook event that is only something like 60 people short of the 352 number, so we will likely blow the poll out of the water. If turnout is like 2011 it may be harder, but Rand just won a daily caller poll of 190,000 conservatives and nobody in the RP community organized to win the poll so who knows. In any case, we need somewhere between 352 and 1,422 votes to win this!

Barrex
03-12-2013, 03:06 PM
Why didn't you?

4 years before election. Rand while a great spokesman for freedom and the constitution..he isn't Ron


He lives in Croatia...


^^^good reason.

He he he

misean
03-12-2013, 03:17 PM
I would have said Rand would finish top 4 or 5 a week ago. Now I think he has a legit shot at winning.

rubioneocon
03-12-2013, 03:26 PM
The following years the following number of people voted in the CPAC Straw Poll:

2012 3,408 voted
2011 3,742 voted
2010 2,395 voted
2009 1,757 voted

The last 4 winners have had 38% (Romney in 2012), 30% (Paul in 2011), 38% (Paul in 2010) and 20% (Romney in 2009)

The average number of voters over the last cycle was 2,826 and the average winner won with 31.5%. If everything comes out to the exact average, we need 890 voters to win the straw poll.

We need 1,422 voters to get 38% of the highest total of voters, which was in 2011 where we actually only got 30%. 1,422 is the "magic number" in that it'd be completely unprecedented to lose this event with that number of voters.

We need 1,295 voters to equal the largest number of total voters ever gathered for one candidate, which was Romney in 2012. By CPAC Romney was pretty much the decided upon candidate, so this type of unity was heavily influenced by that.

We only need 352 voters to win if we are in the equivalent year in the election cycle to the last cycle (2009).

So, as you can see, there is a WIDE variety of possible numbers that we will need to win the straw poll. If turnout is like 2009 levels, then we have a facebook event that is only something like 60 people short of the 352 number, so we will likely blow the poll out of the water. If turnout is like 2011 it may be harder, but Rand just won a daily caller poll of 190,000 conservatives and nobody in the RP community organized to win the poll so who knows. In any case, we need somewhere between 352 and 1,422 votes to win this!

Wow . . . awesome analysis Rocco

Any idea how many of the speakers are in the straw poll as compared to previous years . . .
look at the field for 2013 (Trump and Palin don't count - neither could get much support, could they ?)

But there's Newton Gingerich, Jeb Bush, Romney still lingering around (go away Mittens)
then Rand and newcomers like Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio and a newcomer who could
pass Rand and I wouldn't mind . . . Canadian-born Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

If Rand got to 25% could that be enough to win with so many choices at CPAC 2013?

fisharmor
03-12-2013, 03:30 PM
my how this forum has changed.... seeing as little effort as their was here to take charge of this thing

a) CPAC straw poll wins didn't get us shit
b) Rand isn't Ron.

jllundqu
03-12-2013, 03:41 PM
my how this forum has changed.... seeing as little effort as their was here to take charge of this thing

CPAC lost a lot of credibility over the past 2 years... the little they had to begin with.

rubioneocon
03-12-2013, 04:25 PM
a) CPAC straw poll wins didn't get us shit


How many state delegations did Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas) win at the GOP National Convention in Tampa - St. Pete ?
Three . . . Iowa, Minnesota, and Nevada.

During the roll call, the votes called out for Ron Paul were not repeated by the announcer, who only mentioned Romney’s number,
even in the three states that Ron Paul won: Nevada, Minnesota and Iowa. It was left to the Ron Paul supporters to call out Ron Paul’s numbers.
Ron Paul ended up with 190 of the 202 non-Romney votes - just short of 10% of the overall delegates.

This is a massive improvement on 2008, when he got just 15 delegate votes.
http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

- AND -

For the second convention in a row, Ron Paul came in second. When the final delegate count was tallied at the Republican National Convention
in Tampa, Fla., GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney was the clear winner, with 2,061 delegate votes, in the roll call of the states.

Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas -14th District) picked up the second largest number -- 190 votes,
from delegates from more than two dozen states, including 20 cast for him in Texas.
http://blogs.star-telegram.com/politex/2012/08/final-gop-delegate-count.html




b) Rand isn't Ron.

So Ron Paul may not be running the next time around iin the 2016 election year cycle . . .
I'll take my chances on Rand as being a bit of a non-interventionist when letting Congress do it's job as constitutionally mandated.

eleganz
03-12-2013, 04:59 PM
lol Romney is going to speak at CPAC...he will be upstaged by the son of Ron Paul and its going to be eating away at him alllllll weekend.

sailingaway
03-12-2013, 05:16 PM
OK. I should have said: seriously organized.
Few threads here and 1-2 on dailypaul that are forgotten. Group with only 2600 invited (and how many members does YAL or C4L got???); 286 going and 112 maybes doesnt seems that much or organized to me...
I am not attacking anyone personally but I simply dont see it.

I wish you good luck there.

The serious organization was never here, at least we organized, but the real numbers came through YAL and schools in the area. The reason we never could 'prove' Romney organized (except for the buses) was because he did it directly by email. At this point, Ron has the emails of all the people who won it for him two times before, and the emails from those 'eventbrite' rally events during the campaign, which is thousands of locals in DC, Virginia and Maryland. So if they are organizing, I would expect it to be directly with people it will only cost $40 to get the youth ticket, and who wouldn't even have to get a room.

I don't know that they are organizing that way, but they wouldn't have to do it on the open internet at this point, if they were.

Rocco
03-12-2013, 05:57 PM
Based on analysis I did below there will be between 9-14 CPAC attendees in the straw poll, and then Christie and McDonnell are very likely to be on it, so at least 11 in the poll this year and maybe as many as 15 I would say. With this in mind, 25% may well be enough to win.

The following potential candidates are very likely to be included in the straw poll:

Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Paul Ryan
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Jeb Bush
Bob McDonnell
Bobby Jindal
Scott Walker
Sarah Palin (?)
Michele Bachmann (?)
Newt Gingrich (?)
Mitt Romney (?)
Donald Trump (?)



Wow . . . awesome analysis Rocco

Any idea how many of the speakers are in the straw poll as compared to previous years . . .
look at the field for 2013 (Trump and Palin don't count - neither could get much support, could they ?)

But there's Newton Gingerich, Jeb Bush, Romney still lingering around (go away Mittens)
then Rand and newcomers like Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio and a newcomer who could
pass Rand and I wouldn't mind . . . Canadian-born Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

If Rand got to 25% could that be enough to win with so many choices at CPAC 2013?

No Free Beer
03-12-2013, 06:28 PM
Rand because he's SO HOT right now.

No Free Beer
03-12-2013, 06:31 PM
Based on analysis I did below there will be between 9-14 CPAC attendees in the straw poll, and then Christie and McDonnell are very likely to be on it, so at least 11 in the poll this year and maybe as many as 15 I would say. With this in mind, 25% may well be enough to win.

The following potential candidates are very likely to be included in the straw poll:

Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Paul Ryan
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Jeb Bush
Bob McDonnell
Bobby Jindal
Scott Walker
Sarah Palin (?)
Michele Bachmann (?)
Newt Gingrich (?)
Mitt Romney (?)
Donald Trump (?)

Rick Perry? Honestly?

sailingaway
03-14-2013, 11:41 AM
Here is the ballot, Jeb Bush asked not to be put on. Daily Caller is predicting Rand will will:


According to the Washington Times, this year’s CPAC Straw Poll ballot will include:

NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
AZ Governor Jan Brewer
KS Governor Sam Brownback
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
NJ Governor Chris Christie
TX Senator Ted Cruz
Former IN Governor Mitch Daniels
SC Governor Nikki Haley
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
OH Governor John Kasich
NM Governor Susana Martinez
VA Governor Bob McDonnell
Former AK Governor Sarah Palin
KY Senator Rand Paul
IN Governor Mike Pence
TX Governor Rick Perry
OH Senator Rob Portman
FL Senator Marco Rubio
WI Congressman Paul Ryan
Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
SC Senator Tim Scott
SD Senator John Thune
WI Governor Scott Walker
It’s interesting that Chris Christie — who was not invited to speak — is included. Regardless, the smart money is probably on Rand Paul. He has the momentum and (if history is a predictor) the enthusiastic support of many of the students and young folks who attend CPAC.

http://dailycaller.com/2013/03/14/whos-on-the-cpac-presidential-straw-poll-this-year/