What if Rand Paul wins the 2013 CPAC straw poll?

[Bastiat's The Law]

How do you see things unfolding? Will the media cover it or try to dismiss it?

I'm willing bet that if Rand wins the media will play it down, but if Rubio wins the media will headline that story for the entire week. I'll be very interested to see what kind of bounce the winner gets and how many media appearances they garner from it.

[compromise]

If he wins, it will be dismissed by the MSM. Even the conservative commentators (aside from Church, Doyle and Beck) will say it was only because of YAL and C4L giving "the Paul people" cheap admission, just as they did when Ron won.

[TokenLibertarianGuy]

Are YAL and C4L offering cheap tickets this year?

[GunnyFreedom]

Depends, if the victory is sick lopsided that means every kind of conservative present climbed on board. Even the pundits are articulate enough to pull that one out if it goes down that way.

[Bastiat's The Law]

Are YAL and C4L offering cheap tickets this year?
I'm not sure if they are sponsoring anything, but tickets are cheaper for young conservatives 24 and younger.

Are we going sponsor other forum members to attend?

[jbauer]

I'm not sure it will matter either way. Personally I think we need to get rid of the "tea-party" lable if we're going to even come close to closing the gap between the D's and R's.

[brandon]

I don't think it will be a big deal regardless of who wins - unless it's a surprise underdog like Ted Cruz or Christie.

The one next year will be a bit more important.

[Brett85]

It seems like Rand has lost some support with conservatives since he voted to confirm Hagel. That might make it harder for him to win the CPAC straw poll. We'll see.

[The Gold Standard]

It won't be covered if he wins.

[FSP-Rebel]

As we've said in past times with Ron: let's win it to stave off an opportunity for the media to go gaga over the likes of Roob or whoever. We might not get mass recognition but we'll get our usual dose of internet notoriety and likely it'll at least make Drudge where no one on the right will be able to not see it. That said, I think Rand will get some right wing press out of this as even Ron got a little. In the overall scheme of things, this isn't a prez year nor is Rand perceived as this outsider status that Ron was dealt so his winning won't be as divisive w/i the GOP imo.

[dinosaur]

let's win it to stave off an opportunity for the media to go gaga over the likes of Roob or whoever.


Exactly, it matters even if we get no press coverage at all. They haven't managed to plant Rubio in people's minds as the inevitable one yet.

[Rocco]

A CPAC win is important for the following reasons:

-It validates that Ron Paul's grassroots army has fully gotten behind Rand. There are a few very loud people who seem to do whatever they can to bring Rand down, and this would be the ultimate statement that those people are a small minority.

-It shows that the CPAC crowd is sympathetic to Rand Paul and considers him to be one of them.

-Even if there were no straw poll happening, liberty oriented groups and individuals need to become familiar faces at events like this. We are not just a part of the conservative movement, we ARE the conservative movement, and CPAC is the biggest event of the year for conservatives.

[anaconda]

Depends, if the victory is sick lopsided that means every kind of conservative present climbed on board. Even the pundits are articulate enough to pull that one out if it goes down that way.

Rand can simply remind the MSM that Ron won two years in a row, so if Rubio wins it really doesn't count.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

The media only cares about straw polls when they want to. Remember all the straw polls Ron Paul won that were irrelevant, but then they jolted Herman Cain to front-runner status simply because he won a straw poll in Florida?

[Bastiat's The Law]

Exactly, it matters even if we get no press coverage at all. They haven't managed to plant Rubio in people's minds as the inevitable one yet.
It seems Rubio's bump from giving the national Republican response lasted about 2 weeks. He'll get another week of air in his sails if he wins the CPAC straw poll. I'd love to throw a monkey wrench into that plan.

[misean]

For Rand Paul to win, he almost certainly need to have groups coming in that came expressly to support him. With no "help," I would guess that he still finishes top 4, which would be a solid showing.

I see Rand Paul being like Jack Nicklaus throughout all of this. He'll hang around the leaderboard but he won't get as much attention as others for a long time because he isn't as flashy. In the end, Rand Paul has the goods to back it up though and will be in the mix.

[Rocco]

I think this straw poll will be a big determiner of just this question. I know personally many young conservative professionals coming in job hunting who are all solid Rand votes. I wouldn't be surprised if this prediction turns out wrong.


For Rand Paul to win, he almost certainly need to have groups coming in that came expressly to support him. With no "help," I would guess that he still finishes top 4, which would be a solid showing.

[misean]

I think this straw poll will be a big determiner of just this question. I know personally many young conservative professionals coming in job hunting who are all solid Rand votes. I wouldn't be surprised if this prediction turns out wrong.

You might be right. I still don't think the needle of support has moved far enough in his direction and I'm not sure it would be great if he supernova'd and won. I really don't think it would be good for him to be put in the crosshairs this soon.

[GunnyFreedom]

You might be right. I still don't think the needle of support has moved far enough in his direction and I'm not sure it would be great if he supernova'd and won. I really don't think it would be good for him to be put in the crosshairs this soon.

On the other hand, if he is the 'presumptive nominee' for THREE YEARS before the primary, then the 'inevitability' bit is on our side.

[Brett85]

It just seems like Rand has lost a ton of supporters since he voted to confirm Hagel. 90% of the comments on his Facebook page are from people who say that they no longer support Rand because of his vote to confirm Hagel. Are these people just an extremely vocal minority, or is this going to end up being a huge problem for Rand?

[GunnyFreedom]

It just seems like Rand has lost a ton of supporters since he voted to confirm Hagel. 90% of the comments on his Facebook page are from people who say that they no longer support Rand because of his vote to confirm Hagel. Are these people just an extremely vocal minority, or is this going to end up being a huge problem for Rand?

I think he was just positioning capital to block Brennan. we well see when/if that happens, but if he fights Brennan for all he's worth then I am pretty sure he will make much of that back.

[Brett85]

I think he was just positioning capital to block Brennan. we well see when/if that happens, but if he fights Brennan for all he's worth then I am pretty sure he will make much of that back.

He basically said that he'll even vote to confirm Brennan when it actually comes to the final vote, because he believes that the President should get to choose his cabinet. In the interview with Beck he basically said that the only consistent position is to vote against all of President Obama's cabinet nominees or to vote to confirm all of them, so he's likely going to vote to confirm all of them in order to be consistent.

[alucard13mmfmj]

I dont like how Ron was painted as Libertarian (not Republican) and now Rand is painted as Tea Party (and less as a Republican)...

=|

[Bastiat's The Law]

On the other hand, if he is the 'presumptive nominee' for THREE YEARS before the primary, then the 'inevitability' bit is on our side.
There's certain barriers to cultural awareness and cultural acceptance as well. Most people come to their conclusions of a particular candidate through casual feedback from hearing about them in the news, on tv, and word-of-mouth. A substantial portion are not political junkies like we are so they get their information in passing. These people tend to have their guard up and are skeptical of a potential candidates. And who can blame them really? It takes time to break through that wall so they'll actually give your candidate the time of day. It could take years to reach a saturation point where the majority of the population know who your candidate is and what they stand for. It's doubled hard if there's no media push behind you or if some outside force defines you to the electorate before you define yourself. You could see this phenomenon well in Ron Paul's run in 2007-2008. There was initial reluctance during the first campaign, but in time and considerable effort we managed to break through and get people to hear us out.

It might take a three full years to raise Rand's profile to reach that saturation point where everyday people know of him and openly discuss his ideas around the water cooler. This could be picking up steam of course because Rand has been a relentless voice in the media the past few months. I thought it would take 12-18 months for public sentiment to start to crystallize behind a two-man race between Rand and Rubio. To my surprise it has already started to appear. If this continues to build steam we might very well be on the verge of 'inevitability'. In conclusion, I think the positives of winning CPAC far out weigh any potential negatives. And it would also prevent one of our rivals from the spotlight as someone else said above.

[Marky]

It just seems like Rand has lost a ton of supporters since he voted to confirm Hagel. 90% of the comments on his Facebook page are from people who say that they no longer support Rand because of his vote to confirm Hagel. Are these people just an extremely vocal minority, or is this going to end up being a huge problem for Rand?

He was bound to piss these Israel-firsters off eventually. If Rand is seriously trying to thread the needle between the neocons and the liberty movement, it will not be an easy task. The notion that he can be so covert as to never anger the establishment, yet still take principled stands is ridiculous. The hardcore Likudites in the GOP are a small group that’s only getting smaller each day.

[dinosaur]

He was bound to piss these Israel-firsters off eventually. If Rand is seriously trying to thread the needle between the neocons and the liberty movement, it will not be an easy task. The notion that he can be so covert as to never anger the establishment, yet still take principled stands is ridiculous. The hardcore Likudites in the GOP are a small group that’s only getting smaller each day.

The true Israel-firsters are a relatively small crowd, though. The Beck/Hannity/Rush audience are mostly America-firsters with sympathy towards Israel. Rand will piss off Beck, but can he get through to Beck's audience in the meantime...and can Beck find enough real ammo to sucessfully trash Rand's reputation?

[z9000]

There's been no real organization for getting Rand to win CPAC, so we're kidding ourselves if we think he'll win. I'll be there and I'll vote for him, but I see him coming in second at most.

[trey4sports]

I'b bullish on the media. I thinkthey're coming around. I don't think they'll dismiss it as easily as they did with his father.

[FSP-Rebel]

I'd think YAL would be teaming up with the likes of SFL and maybe even C4L to offer discount rates for the youth to attend. Does anyone know if this is happening or is there a lack of interest?

[speciallyblend]

mark my words,feel free to rinse and repeat this. bottom line, if the gop does not nominate Rand Paul in 2016 and have a republican that supports 2/3rd's of the colorado voter base,colorado constitution(medical/personal marijuana). Then that presidential republican candidate can throw the swing state of colorado out the door.

Doesn't matter if dem is for or against. If the republican opposes individual liberty/ marijuana. They will lose colorado. You can count on it.

[talkingpointes]

Insanity - doing something over and over expecting different results. Rand if he is like Ron will get treated like Ron.

[sailingaway]

I'd think YAL would be teaming up with the likes of SFL and maybe even C4L to offer discount rates for the youth to attend. Does anyone know if this is happening or is there a lack of interest?

The youth tickets are only $40 already this year, so I don't think so. I do know Jeff Frazee is going to be one of the speakers on one of their panels, though, so I would expect YAL to have a decent presence.

edit, having just looked at their web page I note Rand is on the header, which they never did for Ron regardless of his winning, but the alphabetical pictures of participants neatly put Ayotte, Bush and Cantor in the first three spots. How 'conservative'.

[torchbearer]

Insanity - doing something over and over expecting different results. Rand if he is like Ron will get treated like Ron.

only if he is as bold as Ron, which is probably why he is going about things a lil' differently.
because it may be insanity to keep doing what isn't working.

[sailingaway]

only if he is as bold as Ron, which is probably why he is going about things a lil' differently.
because it may be insanity to keep doing what isn't working.

That's part of the debate we won't know until it turns out however it does, but you must admit Ron's CPAC speeches rocked.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BWEBXKOkaI

[torchbearer]

That's part of the debate we won't know until it turns out however it does, but you must admit Ron's CPAC speeches rocked.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BWEBXKOkaI


one of the best speeches, was the one ron gave at the texas gop convention.

[sailingaway]

one of the best speeches, was the one ron gave at the texas gop convention.

I absolutely agree with that.

[Rocco]

Just got this on our "Win CPAC for Rand Paul" event:


Ticket sale ends on Friday. Save 20% off tickets with the Promo CODE "NRO". Save 20% off 24 and under tickets with the Promo Code "YR2013".

www.cpac2013.eventbrite.com

[rubioneocon]

How do you see things unfolding? Will the media cover it or try to dismiss it?

I'm willing bet that if Rand wins the media will play it down, but if Rubio wins the media will headline that story for the entire week.

Same old shit again from the media . . . jus' don't be so surprised or amazed at how far they will go.

btw, neocon Senators from Florida don't have a tiny rats ass chance in getting the GOP to win the California electoral college prize in 2016 . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fE3T12G9gk

(watch it all please - it is an excellent documentary of really what is UCSB)

Now I wonder if we'll welcome that junior Senator from Kentucky in California as in CPAC . . . !

[Tinnuhana]

-Even if there were no straw poll happening, liberty oriented groups and individuals need to become familiar faces at events like this. We are not just a part of the conservative movement, we ARE the conservative movement, and CPAC is the biggest event of the year for conservatives.

This!

[rubioneocon]

That's part of the debate we won't know until it turns out however it does, but you must admit Ron's CPAC speeches rocked.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BWEBXKOkaI

Right, we shouldn't care how they will spin it at this juncture.

Can we do it again?

Ya know Rand somebuddy once said ás to why the popularity in the face of so many hurdles to jump over . . .
"I guess Freedom is popular"

RP after the CPAC win . . .

http://i372.photobucket.com/albums/oo161/sunblush/RonPaul001.jpg

[PaulConventionWV]

How do you see things unfolding? Will the media cover it or try to dismiss it?

I'm willing bet that if Rand wins the media will play it down, but if Rubio wins the media will headline that story for the entire week. I'll be very interested to see what kind of bounce the winner gets and how many media appearances they garner from it.

What if Ron Paul won the CPAC straw poll? Oh wait...

[PaulConventionWV]

I'b bullish on the media. I thinkthey're coming around. I don't think they'll dismiss it as easily as they did with his father.

The media... coming around... HA!

[PaulConventionWV]

only if he is as bold as Ron, which is probably why he is going about things a lil' differently.
because it may be insanity to keep doing what isn't working.

What if liberty doesn't work? Let's just stop doing it.

[torchbearer]

What if liberty doesn't work? Let's just stop doing it.

liberty hasn't even been tried yet.
let's give it a shot.

[FSP-Rebel]

What if liberty doesn't work? Let's just stop doing it.
cool
http://i48.tinypic.com/14v2qnn.jpg
:rolleyes:

[Bastiat's The Law]

Good media bump in my opinion and it prevented the media leg humping Rubio.

[compromise]

What if liberty doesn't work? Let's just stop doing it.

Doesn't matter whether it works or not, we all have a natural right to it.

[Rocco]

After Bastiat bumped this thread up I reread it, and my post concerning why a CPAC win was important stands out to me because these three things were all proven in force at the conference. Ron's grassroots army is indeed FULLY behind Rand, and there was nothing more clear then that. But the other thing to be taken from this is that we won the CPAC poll with very little organization and absolutely no "official" organization other then of supporters who were already at CPAC. That shows a broadened appeal that we didn't experience before. Rand Paul has crossed over from liberty star to GOP star, and we should all be incredibly excited at this progression. CPAC decided to #StandWithRand and I think we have a great shot at winning the broader conservative movement over as well.


A CPAC win is important for the following reasons:

-It validates that Ron Paul's grassroots army has fully gotten behind Rand. There are a few very loud people who seem to do whatever they can to bring Rand down, and this would be the ultimate statement that those people are a small minority.

-It shows that the CPAC crowd is sympathetic to Rand Paul and considers him to be one of them.

-Even if there were no straw poll happening, liberty oriented groups and individuals need to become familiar faces at events like this. We are not just a part of the conservative movement, we ARE the conservative movement, and CPAC is the biggest event of the year for conservatives.

[Lindsey]

Wrong Thread...

[enhanced_deficit]

When I saw headline last week of Rand Paul winning the CPAC poll and news of his Senate fillibuster on civil liberties week before that, I was surprised and suddenly realized GOP was going through some fundamental change or perhaps trying to rediscover its conservative ideas. Had given up on both major parties but starting to think perhaps GOP can redeem itself. Great job Rand Paul.