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Anti Federalist
12-21-2012, 10:58 PM
Including Portland just a week ago, the answer is, no, it is not true.

They have, many times.

When of course, decent folks were not disarmed in a "gun free zone".

Like the Sandy Hook school.



Is it True Armed Civilians Have Never Stopped a Mass Shooting?

5:33 PM, Dec 20, 2012 • By MARK HEMINGWAY

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/it-true-armed-civilians-have-never-stopped-mass-shooting_690808.html

In response to last week's massacre in Connecticut, Mother Jones has put together a "study" on mass shootings that makes a pretty bold claim:


In the wake of the slaughters this summer at a Colorado movie theater and a Sikh temple in Wisconsin, we set out to track mass shootings in the United States over the last 30 years. We identified and analyzed 62 of them, and one striking pattern in the data is this: In not a single case was the killing stopped by a civilian using a gun.

There are a couple of major problems here with arguing that armed civilians don't stop mass shootings. One is that when armed civilians are present, they often stop mass shootings before they can become mass shootings. One of the criteria Mother Jones used to define mass shootings is that "the shooter took the lives of at least four people." So then, consider the following:

– Mayan Palace Theater, San Antonio, Texas, this week: Jesus Manuel Garcia shoots at a movie theater, a police car and bystanders from the nearby China Garden restaurant; as he enters the movie theater, guns blazing, an armed off-duty cop shoots Garcia four times, stopping the attack. Total dead: Zero.

– Winnemucca, Nev., 2008: Ernesto Villagomez opens fire in a crowded restaurant; concealed carry permit-holder shoots him dead. Total dead: Two. (I’m excluding the shooters’ deaths in these examples.)

– Appalachian School of Law, 2002: Crazed immigrant shoots the dean and a professor, then begins shooting students; as he goes for more ammunition, two armed students point their guns at him, allowing a third to tackle him. Total dead: Three.

– Santee, Calif., 2001: Student begins shooting his classmates — as well as the “trained campus supervisor”; an off-duty cop who happened to be bringing his daughter to school that day points his gun at the shooter, holding him until more police arrive. Total dead: Two.

– Pearl High School, Mississippi, 1997: After shooting several people at his high school, student heads for the junior high school; assistant principal Joel Myrick retrieves a .45 pistol from his car and points it at the gunman’s head, ending the murder spree. Total dead: Two.

– Edinboro, Pa., 1998: A student shoots up a junior high school dance being held at a restaurant; restaurant owner pulls out his shotgun and stops the gunman. Total dead: One.

These are just a few examples of mass shootings being prevented. I'm sure there are many more that meet this criteria. But, as you can see, in every incident, the would-be shooters were stopped short of killing four people because an armed civilian—or in some cases, an off duty cop—was present.

The individual circumstances of some of the shooting incidents don't always suggest that armed civilians would not have stopped the mass shootings that have taken place. For instance, the Luby's cafeteria shooting in Kileen, Texas that killed 23 people and is the third deadliest in U.S. history is well-known among gun rights activists. That's because one of the women in the restaurant, Suzanna Hupp, whose husband was wounded and mother killed by the gunman, reached into her purse to retrieve her .38 before realizing she'd left it in her truck. The circumstances surrounding the Nidal Hasan shooting—which occurred at Ft. Hood in Kileen just a few miles from Luby's—also raise questions. Despite the fact that nearly everyone on the Army base was extensively trained to use guns, soldiers at Ft. Hood were not allowed to carry them. While planning his attack, Hasan must surely have been aware of this fact and soldiers at Ft. Hood understandably questioned this policy after the shooting.*

I suppose one could argue that if Mother Jones managed to overlook mass shootings when creating their list the problem is even worse than they make it out to be. On the other hand, failing to identify one of the most notorious mass shootings in American history suggests that their list likely woefully incomplete, and omitting mass shootings from 20 or more years ago seems to undermine their point about the degree to which mass shootings have increased in recent years. It's safe to say the Mother Jones "study" can't be trusted to discern any trends about gun violence.

Secondarily, aside from being fallacious, their claim that "not a single case was the killing stopped by a civilian using a gun" also raises a host of issues being that it is a conditional claim. Notice the word "civilian"? It's true that mass shootings are often stopped by police. But is that because they are uniquely qualified to stop mass shootings or that they stop killers simply by virtue of the fact that they are generally the first people to arrive on the scene carrying guns? Again, Mother Jones provide no data on this. Here's the sum total of their argument on this point:


Armed civilians attempting to intervene are actually more likely to increase the bloodshed, says Hargarten, "given that civilian shooters are less likely to hit their targets than police in these circumstances." A chaotic scene in August at the Empire State Building put this starkly into perspective when New York City police officers confronting a gunman wounded nine innocent bystanders.

There are some terrific, heroic police officers out there and I don't want to diminish their service. But there are also some terrible cops, as well. The fact that police would wound nine innocent people when confronted by a gunman doesn't mean we can assume that armed civilians would have somehow managed to shoot even more people. It might just be the opposite:


Newsweek has reported that law-abiding American citizens using guns in self-defense during 2003 shot and killed two and one-half times as many criminals as police did, and with fewer than one-fifth as many incidents as police where an innocent person mistakenly identified as a criminal (2% versus 11%).

I suppose the assumption that cops are better equipped to carry guns than civilians hinges on the fact that they are trained to handle guns. But so are military veterans, and there are millions of them who have likely as much or more firearms training as the average cop. Finally, it's also true that there are many people who have never had any law enforcement and military training yet are skilled and responsible firearms owners who are temperamentally well-suited to handle potential threats. Mother Jones makes no serious argument that arming more civilians wouldn't be an effective deterrent to preventing mass shootings.

I understand the impulse to do something in the wake of the horror that we witnessed in Connecticut last week. But Mother Jones's "study" is little more than a series of ideological fallacies propped up with cherry-picked data. If Mother Jones is serious about having a debate on guns, they had better hold themselves to much higher standards than this.

*UPDATE: I originally wrote that Mother Jones study was problematic because the list of shooting incidents did not include the Luby's shooting. It turns out that they did include the shooting, but it was only visible after zooming in multiple times on their map of shooting incidents. The article has been revised to reflect that.

Occam's Banana
12-21-2012, 11:11 PM
It should also be noted that Frederic Bastiat's "that which is not seen" is just as applicable here as it is in economics.

How many multiple-victim shootings have never happened at all because would-be perpetrators weren't willing to face the risk that one of their would-be victims might be armed?

sailingaway
12-21-2012, 11:19 PM
absolutely not, there are a number of these that were posted recently.

shane77m
12-21-2012, 11:43 PM
The only thing though is the average gun hating, libtard, or commie, whatever you want to call them, will not even consider guns actually stopping a shooting.

I am talking about the same people that hated G.W. Bush with a passion but don't hate Obama for doing the same things. Logic has no home in their mind. Using sound reasoning and logic does not work with them. I honestly believe they have some form of brain damage.

I think the only thing that responsible freedom loving gun owners can do is hunker down and ride this out. These limp wrist politicians that supposedly care about the 2nd Amendment will simply roll over and throw us under the bus. I don't think any amount of letters and calls to congress or lobbyist action is going to make a difference. I think some major restrictions on firearms are on the way. Hang on because I think we are in for a wild ride.

I could be wrong though.

Anti Federalist
12-22-2012, 08:07 AM
Mass Killings Stopped by Armed Citizens

(links at site)

http://gunwatch.blogspot.com/2012/12/mass-killings-stopped-by-armed-citizens.html

There are several documented cases where armed citizens have stopped mass attacks by gunmen. Let me list a few: The Pearl, Mississippi school shooting was stopped by the vice principal Joel Myrick with a Colt .45, The Appalachian School shooting was stopped by two students with handguns. Both of the above incidents were stopped by the armed citizens threatening the shooter without firing.

Pearl High School Link

Appalacian Law School Link

Plans to slay everyone in the Muskegon, Michigan, store and steal enough cash and jewelry to feed their "gnawing hunger for crack cocaine" fell apart for a band of would-be killers after one of their victims fought back.

Muskegon Shooting Link

The mass church shooting in Colorado Springs was stopped by the shooter being shot by a church member with a CCW permit.

New Life Church Link

The Santa Clara gunshop shooting in 1999 was stopped by an armed citizen after the shooter declared that he was going to kill everyone. Police found a list of intended victims in his car. Only the perpetrator, Richard Gable Stevens was shot.

Santa Clara Gunshop Link

The December, 1991, Aniston, Alabama defense where a CCW holder stopped armed robbers who were herding employees, customers, and his wife into a cooler. He shot both robbers, killing one.

Aniston Shoney's Shooting Link

July 13, 2009, in Virginia at the Golden Food Market: The gunman tried to shoot several people, was stopped by a CCW carrier.

Golden Food Market Shooting Link

Just recently, in Early Texas, armed citizen Vic Stacy shot and stopped a deranged man who had just murdered two neighbors and was firing at police with a rifle. Stacy made a very long shot with his revolver, three times as far as the perpetrator was from the police officer, who had an AR-15 type rifle.

Early Texas Peach House Shooting Link

That sounds like a very good story... but it never made the national news.

I wonder who made the decision to spike that story.

Of course, when a mass shooting is stopped by an armed citizen, there are not as many victims. This leads to the charge that it would not really have been a “mass shooting”.

I have added this incident at the request of a reader:

Abraham Dickman had a history of anger against employees of the AT&T store in New York Mills, New York. On May 27th, 2010, he walked into the store with a .357 and a list of six employees. He shot the first employee, but was stopped from further attacks when Donald J. Moore, an off duty police officer who was allowed to carry his own handgun when not on duty, drew and fired his .40 caliber, killing Mr. Dickman before he could fire any more shots.

AT&T store Link

Here is another likely candidate.

College Park, GA, May 4, 2009.

Two gunman entered a party and ordered the men separated from the women. Then they started counting bullets. “The other guy asked how many (bullets) he had. He said he had enough,” said Bailey.

When one of the assailants prepared to rape a girl, a student was able to access a handgun and engage the two attackers in a firefight, driving one off and killing the other before the thug could rape his girlfriend.

“I think all of us are really cognizant of the fact that we could have all been killed,” said Bailey.

College Park Link

Another off duty police officer stopped the Trolley Square shooting with his personal handgun. He stopped the killing and contained the shooter until police reinforcements arrived and ended the situation.

Trolley Square Shooting Link

Winnemucca NV shooting, 25 May, 2008

The shooter, Ernesto Villagomez, entered the Players Bar and Grill and killed two people. He reloaded and was continuing to shoot when a citizen with a concealed carry permit shot him and stopped the killing.

Winnemuca Shooting Link

Parker Middle School Dance Shooting

14 Year old Andrew Jerome Wurst Killed one person and wounded three others when he was confronted by James Strand who subdued Wurst with a shotgun and held him until police arrived.

Parker Middle School Dance Shooting LinK

Destiny Christian Center Shooting, April 24, 2012

Kiarron Parker rammed his car into another in the church parking lot, got out and attempted to kill multiple church members. He was only able to kill one before a member of the congregation, the nephew of the lady killed, and an off duty police officer, drew his handgun and shot Parker, stopping the killing.

Destiny Christian Center Shooting LinK

Tyler Courthouse shooting, 2005 While police officers were involved in this shooting before and after Mark Alan Wilson intervened, no more people were killed after he shot the shooter, who had body armor, and who was able to return fire and kill the CCW holder, Wilson.

Tyler Courthouse Shooting Link

Dean Weingarten

nobody's_hero
12-22-2012, 08:23 AM
No offense to anarchists here, but I really wish this guy had hosted this study at some site other than "dailyanarchist.com". I've tried to share this data with others but the first thing I hear is, "we're supposed to put credibility in a site called 'dailyanarchist.'?" (of course all these people watch CNN, FOX, or MSNBC, so . . .)

But, the guy seems like he knows math pretty well. He even took time to re-evaluate his findings when people noted some errors, and came up with more accurate but still very compelling data.

http://dailyanarchist.com/2012/07/31/auditing-shooting-rampage-statistics/


Firearm prohibitionists love to use tragedy to leverage their agenda. So, it’s important for gun rights advocates to stand their ground and fire back (proverbially) whenever this happens.

I posted a graphic on Facebook claiming the average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 18.25, and the average number of people killed in a mass shooting when stopped by civilians is 2.2. I based it on 10 shootings I found listed on some timeline somewhere. I honestly don’t even remember where. I presented the case studies in a blog post on the Silver Circle blog and I did the math myself.

The graphic was met with great enthusiasm and much skepticism. Leave it to Facebook users to demand an audit on a meme. So, I started over, only much more meticulous this time. I compiled and analyzed 100 shootings, noting my methodology, and I am now prepared to present my findings, complete with links to the data. But here’s a spoiler… It’s not that different.

The average number of people killed in mass shootings when stopped by police is 14.29

The average number of people killed in a mass shooting when stopped by a civilian is 2.33

I was so close! Here’s what I think accounts for the difference. In the first sample there was likely a selection error based on what grabs headlines. Larger shootings get more press, so if you take a small sampling you’re going to be working with a data set of the worst shootings. As for the consistency of the civilian statistic, it makes perfect sense if you think about from inside the mind of a heroic civilian with a concealed carry permit. It goes something like this:

BANG!
“Holy crap! that guy shot that other guy.”
BANG!
“He’s just going to keep shooting people.”
BANG!

And the shooter goes down.

Continued: http://dailyanarchist.com/2012/07/31/auditing-shooting-rampage-statistics/

If you tinker with math, he goes on to explain how he performed this audit.

Origanalist
12-22-2012, 08:37 AM
No offense to anarchists here, but I really wish this guy had hosted this study at some site other than "dailyanarchist.com". I've tried to share this data with others but the first thing I hear is, "we're supposed to put credibility in a site called 'dailyanarchist.'?" (of course all these people watch CNN, FOX, or MSNBC, so . . .)

But, the guy seems like he knows math pretty well. He even took time to re-evaluate his findings when people noted some errors, and came up with more accurate but still very compelling data.

http://dailyanarchist.com/2012/07/31/auditing-shooting-rampage-statistics/





Continued: http://dailyanarchist.com/2012/07/31/auditing-shooting-rampage-statistics/

If you tinker with math, he goes on to explain how he performed this audit.

Stunning isn't it? These people are lied to on a daily basis by the purveyors of propaganda, yet refuse to accept reality from any "suspicious" source.

Origanalist
12-22-2012, 08:39 AM
It should also be noted that Frederic Bastiat's "that which is not seen" is just as applicable here as it is in economics.

How many multiple-victim shootings have never happened at all because would-be perpetrators weren't willing to face the risk that one of their would-be victims might be armed?

That will never enter their equations.

Lucille
12-22-2012, 09:29 AM
Balko linked to that yesterday in his morning links (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/radley-balko/morning-links-troops-in-s_b_2345320.html?utm_hp_ref=the-agitator) (which has a whopping 5 comments, 3 of which are by the same guy attempting to debunk the same). Pearls before swine, Radley!

coastie
12-22-2012, 09:36 AM
Wasn't that mall shooting right before Sandy Hook stopped by a CCW? I thought I read that the gunman in that case shot himself when he saw the CCW draw down on him.

phill4paul
12-22-2012, 09:46 AM
Wasn't that mall shooting right before Sandy Hook stopped by a CCW? I thought I read that the gunman in that case shot himself when he saw the CCW draw down on him.

Yep. Which is why it is not chalked up as a 'mass' shooting. It's wrong to say that armed civilians never stop 'mass' shooters because armed civilians keep it from getting to that point.

thequietkid10
12-22-2012, 10:06 AM
Good read, I'm curious though, there was supposedly armed civilians at Columbine when that happened. Does anyone know why they weren't stopped?

S.Shorland
12-22-2012, 10:44 AM
Aren't police civilians?

coastie
12-22-2012, 11:01 AM
Good read, I'm curious though, there was supposedly armed civilians at Columbine when that happened. Does anyone know why they weren't stopped?

I personally don't try to come at people with that line of reasoning, that "if only there were armed civilians there"...because its not about that....its about having that option there to defend yourself.

erowe1
12-22-2012, 11:01 AM
That quote from Mother Jones is so idiotic its staggering.

Dr.3D
12-22-2012, 11:16 AM
I believe mass shootings don't happen when people are armed and capable of defending themselves.