Washington Post-ABC News Iowa Poll - Paul 6%!

[0zzy]

[edit]tied with McCain!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_112007.html?hpid=topnews


Mitt Romney 28%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Fred Thompson 15%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
John McCain 6%
Ron Paul 6%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%


Other notes:

Second Choice 6%
Strongest Leader 3%
Understands Problems 8% (Tied Rudy)
Most Honest 6% (+2% Rudy)
Best Experience 3%
Campaign Hardest in IA 2%
Best Chance of Elected 2%
Economy 5%
Federal Budget 8%
Against Terrorism 5%
Immigration 6%
Iraq 5%
Social Changes 6%
Met 1%

[James R]

RE: "tired with McCain!"

If only they weren't so tired!

(j/k)

[skiingff]

yay

[Mark Rushmore]

Fred hasn't dropped out yet?

[Falseflagop]

the madness these polls are so RIGGED!

[kotetu]

looking good! Now get some more commercials out! :D Let's get'er up to 10%, then 18%, then 68% by the vote so my postulate will come true!

[Ron Paul Fan]

I knew we'd be ahead of McCain in Iowa by December 16th. We're right on track to surpass him with name recognition there growing by leaps and bounds. We need to defeat Thompson, McCain, and Giuliani in Iowa! That will shock the nation!

[margomaps]

Wow, this is the highest Ron has polled in IA, correct?

[0zzy]

updated

[csen]

A couple other interesting trends in that poll:

b. best understands the problems of people like you

11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 25 10
Mitt Romney 21 21
Fred Thompson 11 9
Rudy Giuliani 8 13
Ron Paul 8 2
John McCain 5 7

c. is the most honest and trustworthy

11/18/07 7/31/07
Mike Huckabee 26 10
Mitt Romney 25 21
Fred Thompson 13 11
John McCain 8 10
Ron Paul 6 2
Rudy Giuliani 4 7

On those metrics we compare favorably with Rudy. I'm starting to become more and more confident that we'll finish third here.

[chestertime]

i missing where RP is with McCain except where we trailed him by 1 in combined first/second choice???

[austin356]

Wow, this is the highest Ron has polled in IA, correct?

from my (ron paul addicted) bank of knowledge, YES.

[MozoVote]

FOX is lucky the Romney bailed on the debate. It would real tough to worm their way out of giving Paul a podium when he's polling 6%.

[DahuiHeeNalu]

Media-LIES!

[austin356]

Its finally official (my predictions that is):

IA
1st = Huckabee
2nd = Romney
3rd = Ron Paul

NH
1st = Ron Paul
2nd = Romney
3rd = Huckabee

Rest are up 4 grabs after that!

[tmg19103]

Romney has GOT to be going crazy. He has spent millions upon millions in Iowa and Huck is knocking on the door spending nothing. I'm hoping for a Huck win so Romney loses momentum and RP can take NH.

If Huck wins Iowa and RP N.H. the whole GOP race will be turned upside down, all conventional wisdom will be thrown out the window, and the press will have a field day with great exposure for RP - which all bodes well.

[Badger Paul]

This is the highest RP has polled in Iowa. And since McCain has pretty much closed his camapaign in Iowa and focused on NH, we're as good as in fourth place, tie nothwithstanding. For remember this is a caucus, and identifying supporters and getting them to the polls is just as important if not more so as advertising. Without a good ground camapaign all the ads in the world mean nothing in a caucus.

[lasenorita]

CNN (Or was it MSNBC?) ran a story yesterday evening saying that Iowa voters are most concerned about illegal immigration and that's it's a make or break deal for some people. Hopefully more voters become more aware of Ron Paul and his tough stance on the issue in time for the primary. Oh, and become better informed about I-love-illegal-aliens-and-more-taxes Huckabee and "flip-flopper" Romney. ;)

[Austin]

Good news, always nice to the good Doctor climbing in polls.

[margomaps]

Romney has GOT to be going crazy. He has spent millions upon millions in Iowa and Huck is knocking on the door spending nothing. I'm hoping for a Huck win so Romney loses momentum and RP can take NH.

If Huck wins Iowa and RP N.H. the whole GOP race will be turned upside down, all conventional wisdom will be thrown out the window, and the press will have a field day with great exposure for RP - which all bodes well.

Huck has a good chance to win in Iowa IMO. Ron's chances in NH are not so great. I think a 3rd place finish in NH is likely though, narrowly edging out McCain, and nipping on the heels of Giuliani. A lot could change in a month and a half, but at the moment Romney just has an insurmountable lead in NH.

Still, big losses in IA and NH could put Giuliani's campaign in a tailspin, and if Romney loses IA and doesn't dominate in NH, then his campaign will have faltered severely right out of the gate as well. That opens the door for Paul and others to pick up the slack. I'm right with you that the whole GOP race could very well be in a huge state of turmoil come the middle of January.

[Dave]

I'm glad to hear 6% in Iowa for the first time. There is such a clog in this race that many Iowa Republicans think the nomination won't be decided until the national convention.

Which means Ron Paul needs DELEGATES!

[tmg19103]

Huck has a good chance to win in Iowa IMO. Ron's chances in NH are not so great. I think a 3rd place finish in NH is likely though, narrowly edging out McCain, and nipping on the heels of Giuliani. A lot could change in a month and a half, but at the moment Romney just has an insurmountable lead in NH.

Still, big losses in IA and NH could put Giuliani's campaign in a tailspin, and if Romney loses IA and doesn't dominate in NH, then his campaign will have faltered severely right out of the gate as well. That opens the door for Paul and others to pick up the slack. I'm right with you that the whole GOP race could very well be in a huge state of turmoil come the middle of January.

While I would not say RP's chances of winning NH are "great", I think he has a fighting chance at the top spot in a state with a strong libertarian streak. An Open primary with a majority of voters being Independents will make things interesting - especially if Mitt flounders in Iowa. NH will have three if not four GOP candidates finish close to each other, IMHO, and I think RP could well end up on top.

[margomaps]

While I would not say RP's chances of winning NH are "great", I think he has a fighting chance at the top spot in a state with a strong libertarian streak. An Open primary with a majority of voters being Independents will make things interesting - especially if Mitt flounders in Iowa. NH will have three if not four GOP candidates finish close to each other, IMHO, and I think RP could well end up on top.

Well, I'm still looking for the alleged 'libertarian streak' in NH. I suspect it's there -- buried somewhere up in the lakes region and White Mountains, where the population is not big enough to make a significant impact on the state as a whole. There's a much more alarming 'statist streak' that's clearly evident in the population centers of the state, particularly as one gets closer to Boston.

[skinzterpswizfan]

While I would not say RP's chances of winning NH are "great", I think he has a fighting chance at the top spot in a state with a strong libertarian streak. An Open primary with a majority of voters being Independents will make things interesting - especially if Mitt flounders in Iowa. NH will have three if not four GOP candidates finish close to each other, IMHO, and I think RP could well end up on top.

Let's just hope the Independent's come out for us. I read somewhere (Washington Post, I think) that it's expected that 3 out of every 4 Independents in NH are going to vote in the Democratic primary, leaving the Republicans w/ only a quarter of the Independent vote. Hopefully that figure is wrong and more vote on the Republican side, because I think a greater number of them would vote for Paul.

[csen]

Remember that Dean also had a 20%+ "insurmountable" lead in New Hampshire much later in the campaign than this -- one disappointing loss in Iowa eliminated that though.

[spivey378]

nv and wy look promising for us as well

[dante]

Romney has GOT to be going crazy. He has spent millions upon millions in Iowa and Huck is knocking on the door spending nothing. I'm hoping for a Huck win so Romney loses momentum and RP can take NH.

If Huck wins Iowa and RP N.H. the whole GOP race will be turned upside down, all conventional wisdom will be thrown out the window, and the press will have a field day with great exposure for RP - which all bodes well.

UMM I think more likely in this scenario would be Huckabee getting all the media attention as the true dark horse. I think its better for us if Romney wins IA and then RP wins NH as we then become the dark horse. Of course the best thing is to win them both.

[mwkaufman]

Wow, guys in Iowa are doing great work, up across the board. I really thought we were dead in Iowa, but we can take third with this kind of momentum. Passing Rudy I don't think is that big of a challenge, and Thompson is just a big old tree waiting to be felled.

Huckabee looks to be a pretty big favorite to win, I think this is a better result than a Romney victory though. A Romney victory will allow him to sail into the NH primary, but if he finishes second it takes a lot of wind out of his campaign.

My Iowa Caucus Prediction:

Huckabee 32%
Romney 25%
Paul 15%
Thompson 11%
Rudy 8%
McCain 5%
Tancredo 3%
Hunter 1%

[tmg19103]

Well, I'm still looking for the alleged 'libertarian streak' in NH. I suspect it's there -- buried somewhere up in the lakes region and White Mountains, where the population is not big enough to make a significant impact on the state as a whole. There's a much more alarming 'statist streak' that's clearly evident in the population centers of the state, particularly as one gets closer to Boston.

I hear a lot of Mass. liberals have moved to southern N.H. However, I expect a low GOP turnout, and with the neocons splitting what little they have, I could see an RP win.

[tmg19103]

UMM I think more likely in this scenario would be Huckabee getting all the media attention as the true dark horse. I think its better for us if Romney wins IA and then RP wins NH as we then become the dark horse. Of course the best thing is to win them both.

Huck has no traction in NH. His knocking off Romney in Iowa would really help RP in NH. The only other early primary state I could see Huck doing well in is SC. That will be a tough state for RP, but Mich, Nevada and Wyoming are promising and NH is key.

[Paul4Prez]

How can 92% of Iowans not rate Ron Paul the best at handling the federal budget?

Do they LIKE three trillion dollar pork fests?

Are 1/2 trillion dollar deficits no big deal?

I can understand if you back another candidate, but at least answer the questions honestly.

[Peppy690]

why is huckabee so high? do people lack that much common sense to look someone up?

[Rusty John]

Another way to grab attention without spending money is the National Canvassing Weekend idea- having as many Paul supporters canvass their neighborhoods on the weekend of December1st and 2nd- each Paul supporter hits 200 houses in their neighborhood. This is the anniversary of Rosa Parks refusing to giveup her seat on the bus and the anniversary of John Brown's hanging...lol. Also the anniversary of Enron declaring bankruptcy. If we can get 40,000 supporters out for a couple ofhours each during the weekend that'd be 8 million households reached and that many more possible contributors for the Tea Party. It doesn't have to be anything fancy- just going door-to-door and handing out Slim Jims.

By the time this is over,Glenn Beck and the NeoCons will have labeled Rosa Parks a terrorist....lol.

[Mark Rushmore]

why is huckabee so high? do people lack that much common sense to look someone up?

If the same man you trust to guide you into heaven tells you some candidate is a good guy - are you likely to question him? I'm convinced the message went out to churches that "this is the man" and presto - 20 points overnight.

Edit:

Not that anyone thinks I'm pulling this out of thin air, aside from the fact that it makes perfect sense and squares with how we know things are done, there are posts like these http://forum.hucksarmy.com.s30274.gridserver.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=479 reminding everyone that Pastors can endorse candidates and - my favorite of all - that churches can sell their membership lists to campaigns..

[paulitics]

why is huckabee so high? do people lack that much common sense to look someone up?

He is the lesser of the neocon evils perhaps. I expect the antiwar conservatives are still in that undecided column and most will swing over to Paul. I think 6% is promising considering we were only 2% on the day before the straw poll.

[Bradley in DC]

the madness these polls are so RIGGED!

Would you care to justify your baseless rantings with anything rational relating to the facts of the case, please?

[Bradley in DC]

Media-LIES!

Would you care to justify your baseless rantings with anything rational relating to the facts of the case, please?

[Badger Paul]

Romney's support is a mile-wide and an inch deep. Romney's ahead only because he's sunk millions of his own money in TV commercials and has bought name recognition for himself. Is there anyone who thinks there are a lot of passionate Romney supporters out there, I mean the one's that aren't paid?

[Paulitician]

Jeez, with the amount of momentum Huckabee he has, especially with the limited funds, he can totally slaughter us and even pull an upset over Romney. It is quite insane.

P.S. Anyone who doubts the polls probably has never been to the Republican gatherings Iowa has. Otherwise you'd know that Ron Paul is hardly known and people who do know of him probably don't know enough about him or have swallowed the media's propaganda about him. This is the case all over the country. You can go to the rest of the early primary states (save probably NH) and see that is the case. Yet those are the people who are very influencial... Just open your eyes. Yes, the media does lie. Yes, the media could have completely cooked these numbers. But don't you think they could still be accurate regardless? One thing is for sure, Ron Paul is definitely not on top. He should be top 5 at least, but to think that he's top three in any state except is NH, you're deluding yourself and only setting yourself up for disappointment.

[BeFranklin]

Wonder how they are doing their polling - registered Republican voters from last election?

[ItsTime]

I like these numbers
Definitely -Chance change mind - No
support NET Good Unlikely opinion
Mike Huckabee 48 45 26 19 7
Mitt Romney 29 70 42 28 2

[ItsTime]

Want to know why fred is slipping? Is this the order the candidates were read off?

"If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? "


Would you care to justify your baseless rantings with anything rational relating to the facts of the case, please?

[James R]

Very good news!

[dircha]

Want to know why fred is slipping? Is this the order the candidates were read off?

"If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? "

It is my understanding that these polls are usually performed by rotating the order of candidates' names. At least that is considered best practice. I don't know whether that occurred in this poll or not.

[jgmaynard]

That's great Ron is coming up in Iowa.

It is funny, though, how different states are polling so differently. In NH, neither Thompson or Tax-Hike-Mike are doing anything, but McCain is a top dog, in Iowa, just the opposite.

Fascinating to me.

JM

[jake]

How can 92% of Iowans not rate Ron Paul the best at handling the federal budget?

Do they LIKE three trillion dollar pork fests?

Are 1/2 trillion dollar deficits no big deal?

I can understand if you back another candidate, but at least answer the questions honestly.

they. dont. know. :mad:

[AlexMerced]

Yeah, I do believe we can take IA, SC, FL, we're gonna rock the primaries

[jgmaynard]

I see it as NH, MI, NV as our best showings in the early primaries, likely. But I'll take it anyway we can get it. :)

JM

[FreedomLover]

That's great Ron is coming up in Iowa.

It is funny, though, how different states are polling so differently. In NH, neither Thompson or Tax-Hike-Mike are doing anything, but McCain is a top dog, in Iowa, just the opposite.

Fascinating to me.

JM

McCain was never popular in Iowa because in 2000 , just like this year, he skipped the iowa straw poll and did almost no campaigning there.

[jgmaynard]

You see how much politics is affected by local campaigning? One of the reasons that McCain won NH in 2000 was because Shrub had promised a bunch of kids in NH ice cream if they came with him to a photo shoot, then he had the photos taken and jipped the kids of their ice cream. It's a story still told today in these parts.

JM