Handicapping the 2016 presidential field

[JacobG18]

* Rand Paul: The Kentucky Senator will pick up the standard laid down by his father — sort of like Robb Stark and Ned Stark — and, in so doing, ensure himself at least 10-15 percent of the vote in every early-voting state in 2016. Those close to the Paul political world cast Rand Paul as Ron Paul 2.0; the son has all of the core beliefs of the father but with a much healthier dose of charisma and a willingness to occasionally couch his views in order to court skeptical voters. Dismiss Rand Paul at your peril; if he runs, we believe he has a clear path to the 2016 top tier.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/07/handicapping-the-2016-presidential-field/

[jllundqu]

Interesting... Rand Vs Hillary!

lol what a circus

[Bastiat's The Law]

Interesting... Rand Vs Hillary!

lol what a circus
I could see Rand vs. a Hillary/Elizabeth Warren ticket.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Yes, yes, Obama's re-election ensures that both sides will be open next time. I hope the Democratic primary doesn't become too much of a sideshow when we are trying to get attention to Rand. It's looking like their side is going to be Hillary, Biden, Klobuchar, Cuomo, and perhaps a few others. Just as detestable as the Republican competition we will face, if not more so.

[GeorgiaAvenger]

Jeb Bush basically said 2012 was his opportunity and his time has passed.

I don't see him running in a crowded field.

However, if he could block Rubio that would be excellent. By 2016, Republicans will be so desperate to win that no matter how much Jeb appeals to them, they won't risk his last name.

[Odin]

It will depend what the issues are then, but I think it will still be the economy so a candidate who can speak convincingly about the economy will have the best chance to win. I think Ted Cruz is going to be a major candidate for sure, and I might put my money on him if I were a betting man. Christie has already blown his chance. Rand will continue our movement in a major way imo, and Rubio is sort of the GOP establishment's Obama and I expect him to be the early frontrunner.

In any case, a far better field shaping up than in 2012.

[Shane Harris]

I'm worried about Ryan and Rubio. Jindal shouldn't be too bad. Christie, who knows?

[twomp]

I'm worried about Ryan and Rubio. Jindal shouldn't be too bad. Christie, who knows?

I'm more worried about the media blackout Rand Paul or ANY other liberty candidate will have to face if they decided to run.

[John F Kennedy III]

* Rand Paul: The Kentucky Senator will pick up the standard laid down by his father — sort of like Robb Stark and Ned Stark — and, in so doing, ensure himself at least 10-15 percent of the vote in every early-voting state in 2016. Those close to the Paul political world cast Rand Paul as Ron Paul 2.0; the son has all of the core beliefs of the father but with a much healthier dose of charisma and a willingness to occasionally couch his views in order to court skeptical voters. Dismiss Rand Paul at your peril; if he runs, we believe he has a clear path to the 2016 top tier.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/07/handicapping-the-2016-presidential-field/

How can you not love a Robb Stark and Ned Stark reference? :D

This whole election was a Mummer's Farce...

[John F Kennedy III]

Yes, yes, Obama's re-election ensures that both sides will be open next time. I hope the Democratic primary doesn't become too much of a sideshow when we are trying to get attention to Rand. It's looking like their side is going to be Hillary, Biden, Klobuchar, Cuomo, and perhaps a few others. Just as detestable as the Republican competition we will face, if not more so.

They really are thinking about running Biden?

I wouldn't be surprised to see Al Gore run.

[Shane Harris]

I'm more worried about the media blackout Rand Paul or ANY other liberty candidate will have to face if they decided to run.

For some reason I don't see that happening to nearly the same degree it happened for Ron. Fox likes Rand. The fact that he was even mentioned in this article, 3 years ahead of time, as a top tier contender, without him even announcing anything, is far more than Ron was given. Ron was always neglected from these lists and he had to fight for months and win polls and raise tons of money to be briefly considered a top tier candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[ronpaulfollower999]

I could see Rand vs. a Hillary/Elizabeth Warren ticket.

The ultimate ideological showdown. We'd have everything to lose if that election went the wrong way.

[itshappening]

It will depend what the issues are then, but I think it will still be the economy so a candidate who can speak convincingly about the economy will have the best chance to win. I think Ted Cruz is going to be a major candidate for sure, and I might put my money on him if I were a betting man. Christie has already blown his chance. Rand will continue our movement in a major way imo, and Rubio is sort of the GOP establishment's Obama and I expect him to be the early frontrunner.

In any case, a far better field shaping up than in 2012.

Cruz will not run, he's not even sworn in as a senator yet and would not have the right time frame to get going for a '16 run

[Odin]

Cruz will not run, he's not even sworn in as a senator yet and would not have the right time frame to get going for a '16 run

Same situation as Obama in 08.

[thequietkid10]

the Democrat I am most worried about is Cuomo. He's very popular, machine canidate, reputation of working with Repubcians and and not being crazy liberal in New York, he has submitted several on time budgets with a Republican House without any fuss (a major acomplishment around here), and people in upstate are starting to feel like the area is turning around. He is setting himself up to be the "next Clinton."

[RP Supporter]

I think Rubio's our toughest competitor. The base won't forgive Christie for daring to say nice things about Obama, especially so close to the election. Ryan added absolutely nothing to the ticket and couldn't even carry his own state. Jindal is a lousy speaker, and if you want someone whose social conservative issues are their bread and butter, you'll go with Santorum.

Rubio though... I think he'll be the choice of the party bosses who wanted Romney this time around. They want a Hispanic on the ticket. He's already being compared to Obama. He has flaws if running as well(I'm not sure Joe voter would want two non white presidents in a row), but I think he'll be the biggest hurdle next time around.

[Shane Harris]

I think Rubio's our toughest competitor. The base won't forgive Christie for daring to say nice things about Obama, especially so close to the election. Ryan added absolutely nothing to the ticket and couldn't even carry his own state. Jindal is a lousy speaker, and if you want someone whose social conservative issues are their bread and butter, you'll go with Santorum.

Rubio though... I think he'll be the choice of the party bosses who wanted Romney this time around. They want a Hispanic on the ticket. He's already being compared to Obama. He has flaws if running as well(I'm not sure Joe voter would want two non white presidents in a row), but I think he'll be the biggest hurdle next time around.

same. he's a total neoconservative too.

[matt0611]

I could see Rand vs. a Hillary/Elizabeth Warren ticket.

Ugh, puke.

Warren isn't even sworn in yet and I'm already sick of her.

[Keith and stuff]

The ultimate ideological showdown. We'd have everything to lose if that election went the wrong way.

Not really. Hilliary ran to the right of Obama in 2008. She may run as more of a centrist again. That may also be how Rand tries to run.

[VoluntaryAmerican]

Rand Paul 2016 - JOIN OR DIE

[supermario21]

I've NEVER felt this much energy about a potential candidate...and it's only 1 day after this year's election! How many days till Iowa 2016?

[itshappening]

Rubio is very shallow and has done nothing in the Senate but I agree he will probably run in 2016

He has neocon backers.

The problem with his Hispanic cred is that he campaigned for Romney in Florida and Obama's share of Hispanic vote in some counties increased so he made no difference in winning them.

Rubio is far from certain to be re-elected in '16 another reason why he may run but he is very weak after Romney v. Obama match-up and he could not help in his home state especially as I imagine he cut ads for him in Spanish and they used him there and it made no difference.

It will be very interesting to see how he votes on certain things like debt ceiling and tax increases.

[supermario21]

It will be very interesting to see how he votes on certain things like debt ceiling and tax increases.

This is why I want Rand and Amash to try and strike a deal where in exchange for no tax increases, we cut defense spending. If the establishment GOP rejects it the Tea Party will rally behind us early.

[cindy25]

I'm worried about Ryan and Rubio. Jindal shouldn't be too bad. Christie, who knows?

counter Rubio by getting Ted Cruz to run, and split those voting for a Hispanic

[itshappening]

This is why I want Rand and Amash to try and strike a deal where in exchange for no tax increases, we cut defense spending. If the establishment GOP rejects it the Tea Party will rally behind us early.

it's not a winning strategy to use that in a GOP primary because to them it is sacrosanct; there is no useful political capital in saying "I tried to cut defense spending but they wouldn't let me"

[Factushima]

I would like to add another name to the pile of likely nominees: Suzanna Martinez.

[RonPaulMall]

Rubio and Huckabee will probably be our two biggest threats. I get what Rand is doing in terms of shoring up evangelical support, but I think he also needs to beef up his street cred with young people who aren't necessarily already aligned with the Ron Paul movement. Introducing some kind of bill in the Senate to prohibit the Feds from interfering with marijuana policy in Colorado and Washington would be a quick and easy way to win over young people and independents as well as endear himself to the voters of those states.

[jkob]

Jeb Bush I think is the biggest threat. I imagine the whole nominating process would be rigged in his favor if he ran. 4 more tough years and you'll probably have a large % of the population longing to return to the time of Bush.

Christie I agree about not being a serious contender. His views aren't going to play in Iowa or the south and I don't think he'll ever be forgiven for hugging Obama/refusing to campaign for Romney. Not to mention the whole weight issue.

Things are aligning well Rand, he should do well in Iowa and New Hampshire. An endorsement from Senator DeMint and Senator Tom Davis would be a nice boost in South Carolina. :)

[XTreat]

How can you not love a Robb Stark and Ned Stark reference? :D

This whole election was a Mummer's Farce...

Lets not compare Rand to Robb Stark please.

[Aratus]

rand can potus run!

[opal]

Rubio already has opted out of a damn important vote.. Rand's bill to stop funding aid to the middle east - he was there and didn't vote.

[Bastiat's The Law]

I've NEVER felt this much energy about a potential candidate...and it's only 1 day after this year's election! How many days till Iowa 2016?
It's all rather exciting if you ask me! :D

[Carole]

* Rand Paul: The Kentucky Senator will pick up the standard laid down by his father — sort of like Robb Stark and Ned Stark — and, in so doing, ensure himself at least 10-15 percent of the vote in every early-voting state in 2016. Those close to the Paul political world cast Rand Paul as Ron Paul 2.0; the son has all of the core beliefs of the father but with a much healthier dose of charisma and a willingness to occasionally couch his views in order to court skeptical voters. Dismiss Rand Paul at your peril; if he runs, we believe he has a clear path to the 2016 top tier.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/07/handicapping-the-2016-presidential-field/

I believe it is too late for Hillary.

The one person who has been actively and actually grooming himself to run for the Democrats is Senator Joe Manchin, former Governor of WVa. (Don't Laugh-he is extremely charming, personable, reasonable, and was elected to head the annual Governor's confab before he resigned the governorship to take over Byrd's old seat).

I would strongly suggest that Manchin is so likeable and sensible that he is the ONE to watch for 2016.

[specsaregood]

I believe it is too late for Hillary.

The one person (who has been actively and actually grooming himself to run for the Democrats is Senator Joe Manchin, former Governor of WVa. (Don't Laugh-he is extremely charming, personable reasonable and was elected to head the annual Governor's confab before he resigned the governorship to take over Byrd's old seat).

I would strongly suggest that Manchin is so likeable and sensible that he is the ONE to watch for 2016.

Interesting that, especially considering that RandPac funded ads against Manchin in the general election over the foreign aid vote.

[mad cow]

I don't think any democrat could carry West Virginia in 2016 after Obama gets done with the coal industry.

[supermario21]

Manchin's problem is a liberal one. He can never win a Democratic primary. The Democrats right now are where the GOP was in 04. A second term of a rogue executive, temporarily bolstered by a slightly expanded Senate majority. 2014 is going to be a wave for us, and as Obama continues to implode we sweep 2016. Our goal is to just make sure we do our part to organize for liberty to sweep in and reap the benefits.

[Carole]

I don't think any democrat could carry West Virginia in 2016 after Obama gets done with the coal industry.

Earl Ray Tomblin was just elected after having completed Manchin's term. We had to demand a special election for the two remaining years of Gov. Manchin's vacated term when he chose to run for the Senate. (Tomblin thought he could just waltz in and assume the governorship from his position as president of the state Senate.) He won that special election. He just defeated Maloney for the second time now. Maloney is a businessman and was maligned by the Tomblin machine. This has been a democratic stronghold for eighty years, but there have been a few Republican governors over the years.

Manchin is being somewhat careful to appear as though he is standing up for coal and to appear to be against cap and trade. He did attempt to initiate a lawsuit against Obamacare, but I think there was trouble with the AG on that. Tomblin took credit for the lawsuit. Blah...blah...blah.

Manchin is attractive, well-spoken and gives the appearance of being well-informed and well-spoken, and has good leadership qualities. I don't know how he would fare in a national debate, but he would present himself well as a moderate (not radical) Democrat and would come across as soft-spoken, thoughtful and reasonable. He has that well polished look, too. I have never heard him speak in an in-your-face or loud tone. I have not seen his record lately because I know he was being cautious since he had to run after only two years in the Senate. Now he has a full six-year term, so we shall see how he uses his votes.

I believe he will run for the Democratic nomination in 2016 and if he performs well, would eclipse a Biden or Hillary Clinton, because of his understated, reasonable demeanor. He apparently was quite popular among the governors when he served as governor. Frankly, I wish he were a true conservative liberty-loving Republican - on our side instead of being a democrat.

Rand Paul is the only one on our side I can think of at the moment who might match up against him. (Well, Dr. Ron Paul will always be my first choice, but it is Rand's time in 2016).

[Carole]

I think Rubio's our toughest competitor. The base won't forgive Christie for daring to say nice things about Obama, especially so close to the election. Ryan added absolutely nothing to the ticket and couldn't even carry his own state. Jindal is a lousy speaker, and if you want someone whose social conservative issues are their bread and butter, you'll go with Santorum.

Rubio though... I think he'll be the choice of the party bosses who wanted Romney this time around. They want a Hispanic on the ticket. He's already being compared to Obama. He has flaws if running as well(I'm not sure Joe voter would want two non white presidents in a row), but I think he'll be the biggest hurdle next time around.

Too bad Rubio is a neocon. BTW weren't his parents born out of country. Cuba? Is he qualified to run?

[Carole]

Manchin's problem is a liberal one. He can never win a Democratic primary. The Democrats right now are where the GOP was in 04. A second term of a rogue executive, temporarily bolstered by a slightly expanded Senate majority. 2014 is going to be a wave for us, and as Obama continues to implode we sweep 2016. Our goal is to just make sure we do our part to organize for liberty to sweep in and reap the benefits.

Not sure I understand why Manchin could not win a Democratic primary. Could you explain further?

[RP Supporter]

I agree that Manchin won't win the primary. I'm pretty sure he at least claims to be against the healthcare bill. And he refused to attend the dem convention or publicly endorse Obama. Remember that in 2008, even when Bush was super unpopular, the only Republican candidate who was really critical of him STILL lost in a field filled with almost a dozen other jokers. I'm guessing it will be the same for the Democrats in 2016. They'll double down and nominate a dem who promises to more or less continue his policies.

For Republicans, while Rubio worries me, I'm more concerned about Martinez. apparently she's the most popular governor in the country, and she's a Hispanic woman. Republican bosses would love her to run, magically thinking she'd solve all of their problems with those voters. I don't know much about her record so I can't tell how good she is, but I think she could be a serious threat. That said, she has a mentally handicaped sister and has said because of that she doesn't want to leave the state. And I don't think she has the desire for the vigorous nationwide campaign running for president would require. But expect many Republicans to openly talk her and Rubio up in the days ahead. IMO, she's the mainstream GOP's top choice for at least vice president.

That said, if 2016 is based on the issues, I think Rand takes it. Most lines of attacks on him will be of him being too conservative or not compromising enough. Not exactly an argument the primary voters want to hear.:cool:

[mad cow]

"So, if somebody wants to build a coal plant, they can — it’s just that it will bankrupt them, because they are going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted." -Barack Obama

Obama doesn't have to worry about re-election anymore,just today,2 days after the election,there was talk about a carbon tax.Things will only get worse as he becomes more of a lame duck late in his term.

Is Manchin going to run counter to 8 years of his party's policies?Then he won't carry the DEM rank and file.
Is he going to run on an anti-coal platform?Then he won't carry West Virginia,his home State.

[supermario21]

Manchin will not win the rank and file as mad cow said. Also remember that Dems have superdelegates and weigh their delegates according to loyalty voting for Dems. Manchin can only do good in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, WV, Michigan, Indiana. He will get blown out everywhere else. The Democratic Party has tracked hard left in its rank and file.