2012 Presidential Election Winner Called !

[ProBlue33]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

With voting well underway in the East the election has been called.

I am glad Romney lost.

[NoPants]

I was just looking at that too. I called it the same but my forecast was made a couple weeks ago. ;)

[jclay2]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

With voting well underway in the East the election has been called.

I am glad Romney lost.

Kind of confused. Intrade still shows romney with a 31% chance of winning. The cake is not exactly baked for obama yet. I do think Obozo wil win, but it is a bit premature.

[TheGrinch]

You're calling the election because an odds site has Obama at 70%? Methinks you've never done the stock-market or sports-booking before, because this can mean a lot of things.

I mean, yes of course it means that their math probably shows a strong likelihood of an Obama victory, but it is impossible to call without significant exit-polling or results from swing states.

[NoPants]

You're calling the election because an odds site has Obama at 70%? Methinks you've never done the stock-market or sports-booking before, because this can mean a lot of things.

I mean, yes of course it means that their math probably shows a strong likelihood of an Obama victory, but it is impossible to call without significant exit-polling or results from swing states.

I think the odds only went to 70% very recently. The entire thing is based on a report that cited the accuracy of Intrade in the 2008 election where they predicted the electoral votes exactly.

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

[Zippyjuan]

I think the odds only went to 70% very recently. The entire thing is based on a report that cited the accuracy of Intrade in the 2008 election where they predicted the electoral votes exactly.

http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php

Looking at the chart on the Intrade link, it was as high as 80% (can't tell the date- looks like about September).

[NoPants]

Looking at the chart on the Intrade link, it was as high as 80% (can't tell the date- looks like about September).

Yeah, I can't tell. That chart needs more markings to determine both the % and date.

[jclay2]

Obama selling off some. He hit as high as 74% today, now he is trading at 66%. Could be interesting.

[randomname]

on drudge

EXIT POLLS: RACE TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA

assuming these exit polls are correct Romney needs to win all 4 of CO, IA, VA and WI to win. very unlikely.

[Liberty74]

on drudge

EXIT POLLS: RACE TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA

assuming these exit polls are correct Romney needs to win all 4 of CO, IA, VA and WI to win. very unlikely.

I just saw that as well. OH is having a huge turn out in red counties and a lower turn out in blue counties compared to 2008. Remember, the exit polls called it for John Kerry too. It's just that close and exit polls can be off.

[randomname]

if OH actually went for Romney it's too close for intrade to mean anything at this stage

[CaptUSA]

on drudge

EXIT POLLS: RACE TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: OH, NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: VA, CO, IA

assuming these exit polls are correct Romney needs to win all 4 of CO, IA, VA and WI to win. very unlikely.Just saw this. I'm urging caution on this, but it looks like a very plausible situation. WI is going Obama regardless, so if this holds up, O is re-elected.

[randomname]

drudge just changed his headline and basically called it for obama



EXIT POLL BOOM FOR O
R: NC, FL
O: NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: OH, VA, CO, IA