What % will Gary Johnson get nationally

[nyrgoal99]

Predict!!!

[torchbearer]

2% would be a record for LP!

[phill4paul]

I'm gonna shoot the moon and say 4%. Lot's of disgruntled folks out there this year. Many that are so disgusted they are starting to think third party. Of course, by "many" I simply more than before.

[sailingaway]

Don't post these in Ron's forum.

[mport1]

Probably <1%. Any uptick from more liberty leaning people will probably be counterbalanced by people writing in Ron Paul and others like myself who won't vote for GJ because he isn't a pure libertarian.

[torchbearer]

Don't post these in Ron's forum.

por que?

[CaptLouAlbano]

Less than Barr's 2008 percentage.

[torchbearer]

Less than Barr's 2008 percentage.

that would be sad.

[ronpaulfollower999]

0.5%

[ronpaulfollower999]

Less than Barr's 2008 percentage.

Possible. Depends on turnout. Does Obama's core show up? If not, GJ probably gets gets a little more than 0.4%.

I'm sticking with 0.5%

[sailingaway]

por que?

his subforum, I didn't mean Ron Paul forums generally. You don't see all the threads I move but if I didn't move them, you'd know exactly what I meant.

[Confederate]

Not more than 1.4%, no less than 0.8%.

[devil21]

Im gonna shoot for the higher end and say 3%. A lot of angry people out there this time around.

[Qdog]

Shoot, my Mom, Stepdad, girlfriend and me are all voting GJ. So I sure hope he gets 5% Im guessing 2-3% though.

[Qdog]

I need to start making some liberty babies.

[Carehn]

Gary Johnson is going to get 34% of the vote.

[KCIndy]

Gary Johnson is going to get 34% of the vote.

I would give my left nut to see that happen - NOT because I'm a GJ fan (I'm not, frankly) but because the thought of EITHER Romney or Obama getting it makes me physically ill.

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[thoughtomator]

I really wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him pull 10-15% in non-battleground Obama states. Nationally I'll guess 7%.

[DrHendricks]

I'm hoping for the best from the youth. I've encountered so many people in my generation that aren't caught up in right-left paradigm and simply want something different. A good 3rd party turnout in the youth vote will be a very encouraging sign.

[misean]

Regrettably he isn't going to do well. I'm going guess 1 percent of slightly less. I think he does better than Bob Barr.

[nyrgoal99]

CNN poll in Ohio with Johnson included had him at 5%

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[RonPaulFanInGA]

The Libertarian Party peaked over three decades ago in 1980 with 1.1% of the national vote. So, probably somewhere in the 0.4%-0.8% range.

[cnaw]

He'll get 4.9% just so TPTB can thumb their noses at us.

[parocks]

CNN poll in Ohio with Johnson included had him at 5%

link?

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[Qdog]

Yeah, I hope Johnson gets 4.9%... that way all the people who went back to being apathetic feel like shit.

[Feeding the Abscess]

I'm more interested in the guy from the NSA Did 9/11 party. lol

[torchbearer]

The Libertarian Party peaked over three decades ago in 1980 with 1.1% of the national vote. So, probably somewhere in the 0.4%-0.8% range.

its this attitude i was hoping my friends in liberty would have helped me dispel.
now everytime someone who dissed GJ during this election ask for my help in the future- i will be thinking of this...

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[RickyJ]

Probably <1%. Any uptick from more liberty leaning people will probably be counterbalanced by people writing in Ron Paul and others like myself who won't vote for GJ because he isn't a pure libertarian.

There is one issue I don't compromise on ever, and that is abortion. If Gary was pro-life he would have my vote, since he isn't and the Constitution party is not on my ballot then Ron Paul has my vote. The best vote I will ever probably ever make in a presidential election.

[Keith and stuff]

Shoot, my Mom, Stepdad, girlfriend and me are all voting GJ. So I sure hope he gets 5% Im guessing 2-3% though.

Wow. That is super optimistic! Why do you think he will do so amazingly well compared to the past LP candidates? What is so special about him? Certainly it isn't his ability to speak well or raise money.

[Keith and stuff]

Regrettably he isn't going to do well. I'm going guess 1 percent of slightly less. I think he does better than Bob Barr.

Around 1% would be amazing for a LP candidate. If he did that well, he should write 4 or 5 books explaining how he elevated the LP so much in such a short time.

[jkob]

I'm guessing 1% to 1.9% which would be a tremendous result. I think he'll break 5% in a couple states.

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[James Otis, Jr.]

After Dixville Notch and Hart's Location he's 2/44 votes, so he's currently at 4.5%.

I'm predicting 0.9% of the vote and 1.2 Million total votes which I believe would be the record for an LP presidential candidate vote total.

[NorfolkPCSolutions]

Voted 5pc. I think he will do better than that.

While I don't have much faith in the average American voter, I do know that a lot of average American voters have become attuned to the smell of bullshit. There is no political difference between the Republican and Democratic nominee. On that basis alone, despite not knowing who Johnson is or what he stands for, there will be quite a chorus of people saying "FUCK IT" out loud, then voting Johnson.

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[nyrgoal99]

vote

[nyrgoal99]

vote

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[misean]

Regrettably he isn't going to do well. I'm going guess 1 percent of slightly less. I think he does better than Bob Barr.

It looks like this is going to be pretty accurate.

[QWDC]

Since it looks like Obama has just about got it wrapped up, is it time to start looking at what Johnson actually got?

In KY with 90%+ reporting Johnson has .96% of the vote. I'll update other states here in a while

EDIT: neve rmind, politico is actually reporting Johnson's numbers. Just find them there.

[mport1]

I wanted to bump this thread as a reminder for people who were expecting large results for Gary. It appears that he did not even crack the 1% mark (http://reason.com/blog/2012/11/09/gary-johnson-drops-below-one-percent-in), meaning that 76% of people here overestimated his outcome. More surprisingly 16% of people expected 5% or higher!

Let this be a lesson to people to have realistic expectations in the future about the LPs vote totals. I remember back in 2004 when I bet a number of people Michael Badnarik would easily break 1%. He pulled a whopping .32% of the vote...

People are not going to vote 3rd party anytime soon, and I think we really need to abandon the Libertarian Party which has been infiltrated by Republicans like Gary Johnson, Bob Barr, and Wayne Root. If you want to participate in politics, consider doing so in one of the two major parties, and if you really want to work within the LP, please realize that they are not going to win and the party should be a vehicle to educate the public. To that end, we need to nominate principled people who are not pro military intervention, for a "fair" tax, and against ending the war on drugs (just for legalizing, TAXING, and REGULATING marijuana). GJ didn't even embrace the non-aggression principle or understand Austrian economics.

I've made the mistake in the past of thinking a watered down candidate was the best option for spreading liberty. In fact, just over 4 years ago I was advocating for Bob Barr from an anarchist perspective on RPF (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?139155-An-Anarchist-s-Perspective-on-Barr&highlight=barr) haha! I will not be making that mistake again.

Below is the historical election results for the LP for your reference. The LPs best performance was over 30 years ago

1972 John Hospers - 0.00%
1976 Roger MacBride - 0.21%
1980 Ed Clark - 1.06% (Best performance ever due to funding from billionaire VP candidate David Koch)
1984 David Bergland - 0.25%
1988 Ron Paul - 0.47%
1992 Andre Marrou - 0.28%
1996 Harry Browne - 0.50%
2000 Harry Browne - 0.36%
2004 Michael Badnarik - 0.32%
2008 Bob Barr - 0.40%
2012 Gary Johnson - 0.98%

[misean]

I wanted to bump this thread as a reminder for people who were expecting large results for Gary. It appears that he did not even crack the 1% mark (http://reason.com/blog/2012/11/09/gary-johnson-drops-below-one-percent-in), meaning that 76% of people here overestimated his outcome. More surprisingly 16% of people expected 5% or higher!

People are not going to vote 3rd party anytime soon, and I think we really need to abandon the Libertarian Party which has been infiltrated by Republicans like Gary Johnson, Bob Barr, and Wayne Root. If you want to participate in politics, consider doing so in one of the two major parties, and if you really want to work within the LP, please realize that they are not going to win and the party should be a vehicle to educate the public. To that end, we need to nominate principled people who are not pro military intervention, for a "fair" tax, and against ending the war on drugs (just for legalizing, TAXING, and REGULATING marijuana). GJ didn't even embrace the non-aggression principle or understand Austrian economics.



I don't think most people who actually looked at the odds thought GJ was going to do much better than 1%. I do agree that the party should be used to educate not get people elected.


I'm for a consumption tax. I'm for taxing and regulating marijuana just like cigarettes. Neither one of those positions are inconsistent with being a libertarian. They are only inconsistent with being a Rothbardian. There is nothing wrong with approaching life from a cost/benefit, pragmatic viewpoint and arriving at the conclusion that libertarian policies yield the best outcome. That's how Mises and Hayekviewed the world.

[mport1]

I don't think most people who actually looked at the odds thought GJ was going to do much better than 1%. I do agree that the party should be used to educate not get people elected.

Not according to the poll results here. Almost 100 votes, and the vast majority guessed 1%+.


I'm for a consumption tax. I'm for taxing and regulating marijuana just like cigarettes. Neither one of those positions are inconsistent with being a libertarian. They are only inconsistent with being a Rothbardian. There is nothing wrong with approaching life from a cost/benefit, pragmatic viewpoint and arriving at the conclusion that libertarian policies yield the best outcome. That's how Mises and Hayekviewed the world.

As a violation of property rights, taxes are theft, plain and simple. They are a violation of the non-aggression principle, a core tenet of libertarianism. Personally I don't believe that a person who favors taxation can qualify as a libertarian (maybe libertarian leaning though). However, the word has certainly morphed over the years which I tend to call myself a voluntaryist to avoid confusion.

I believe that a utilitarian framework is wrong, but that wasn't my biggest problem with GJ.

By the way, this is the statement you have to sign to become a member of the Libertarian Party. By my reading of it, somebody who supports taxation does not qualify.


I certify that I oppose the initiation of force to achieve political or social goals.

[alucard13mmfmj]

That 1 million votes for Gary Johnson (and maybe a few hudnred thousand votes for RP) could have pushed the GOP over the top. Oh wellz, too bad GOP.

[liveandletlive]

i wonder how many Ron Paul would have gotten had he been the LP candidate