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View Full Version : General Who Will Win The Presidential Election?




trey4sports
11-01-2012, 04:11 PM
Vote

DeMintConservative
11-01-2012, 04:14 PM
If the election was today, I'd say Obama. Maybe even with a Romney PV win. It's too close to make a prediction though

misean
11-01-2012, 04:42 PM
Obama is clearly a decent sized favorite but if everything goes perfectly Romney could squeak out a win.

Sola_Fide
11-01-2012, 04:54 PM
I haven't been interested enough to know which way to vote.

rpfocus
11-01-2012, 06:12 PM
Obama will lose the popular vote by less than 2% but win the EC.

69360
11-01-2012, 07:49 PM
PV real close EC goes to Obama by less than 10.

I'm more interested in who takes the senate most likely the democrats, house is a given for the GOP.

ronpaulfollower999
11-02-2012, 09:33 AM
I'm an idiot. I selected Romney, but I meant to select Obama. I'm pretty sure Obama wins this.

Todd
11-02-2012, 09:45 AM
Are we being biased that we think Obama wins. The polls are confusing to me this time around.

CaptUSA
11-02-2012, 10:22 AM
I can tell you who will lose:
http://www.stolaf.edu/depts/americon/media/american_flag.jpg

opal
11-02-2012, 10:22 AM
Polls smolls.. sure seemed like TPTB decided right before the RNC that Obama was their puppet this time around

sailingaway
11-02-2012, 10:25 AM
I'd have to flip a coin to decide who is going to win. I picked other, because that is what I want to have happen....

Dick Chaney
11-02-2012, 10:32 AM
Obama.

CaptLouAlbano
11-02-2012, 10:34 AM
There are three reasons why I think Romney will win this: PA, MI, and WI.

Romney can win the election by winning FL, NC, VA, NH and OH. He can spend all his money and time in those states and hit 270. But he is not only campaigning there, but also in those three states which have been blue states for many election cycles. Which in turn forces Obama to defend his turf. The Romney campaign would not be throwing money and time into those three states if they did not know that they were within striking distance.

thoughtomator
11-02-2012, 10:37 AM
Goldman Sachs will win. We the people will lose.

CaptUSA
11-02-2012, 10:38 AM
There are three reasons why I think Romney will win this: PA, MI, and WI.

Romney can win the election by winning FL, NC, VA, NH and OH. He can spend all his money and time in those states and hit 270. But he is not only campaigning there, but also in those three states which have been blue states for many election cycles. Which in turn forces Obama to defend his turf. The Romney campaign would not be throwing money and time into those three states if they did not know that they were within striking distance.Yeah, unless their internal polling is telling them they're in trouble in Ohio and better find another state... They may be flailing.

CaptLouAlbano
11-02-2012, 10:42 AM
Yeah, unless their internal polling is telling them they're in trouble in Ohio and better find another state... They may be flailing.

True, but then they wouldn't be spending the money and time in OH, and they are. So is Obama. History and logic shows us that campaigns do not spend money in states that they cannot compete in, or that they already have in the bag.

As far as OH. From what I understand about the state is that it is the southwestern corner that swings the state. That's the polling we never get to see, and the polling that really is the most important.

supermario21
11-02-2012, 10:48 AM
Yeah, unless their internal polling is telling them they're in trouble in Ohio and better find another state... They may be flailing.

I doubt there internal polling is telling them this. The margins are close enough when they're already skewed in the Dems favor. The tangible evidence, such as early voting, favors Republicans. If you go by early voting/absentee requests, Romney has almost already made up the entire deficit to Obama from his 08 margin. Also, look at the 2010 election. Yes, turnout was lower, but Strickland also did very well in areas that Obama will get railroaded in. For example, in the counties of SE Ohio from Columbiana down to where Marietta is located, Strickland was very competitive and even won many of those counties. But because of Obama's liberalism and harsh stances on coal and guns, Romney should win these areas by 10-20 points if not more. I also see Romney winning WI because of the ground game from the recall. That election pitted Big Labor vs. Big Republican influences and the right prevailed. It will be close, but the Republicans have already proven they can win a big election. Early voting and their guessing as to how many people are doing so are throwing off these polls. When many polls in Ohio, Iowa etc have the president winning EV 60-35 and it accounting for 35-40% of the total vote is ludacris. In Ohio, only 21% of people have early voted or requested absentee.

sailingaway
11-02-2012, 10:49 AM
Goldman Sachs will win. We the people will lose.

this ^^

CPUd
11-02-2012, 11:08 AM
I find this thread very informative.

beaven
11-02-2012, 05:43 PM
If Romney loses, maybe we can get Rand in a few years -- assuming he is acting like a Paul at that point.

jay_dub
11-02-2012, 05:54 PM
I would have called it a tossup a week ago, with an edge to Romney. Now I feel that Obama has sealed the deal, but just barely.

The GOP was trying to make hay out of Benghazi and it looked like it might have been Obama's Waterloo, but Sandy has dominated the news and most accounts have Obama doing a good job with it. Gov. Christie's comments probably carry more weight than the GOP would like to admit.

It's better for us to have Obama win. A Romney win without our support renders us irrelevant. It also means we get another bite at the apple in 2016.

trey4sports
11-02-2012, 09:27 PM
I'm still leaning toward Obama simply because I don't think the GOP turnout is going to be nearly as good as some think.

The_Ruffneck
11-02-2012, 10:11 PM
Put $150 on Obama a day after Sandy to win ~$55.Odds were at 1.36 when i put the bet, slipped over the next few days to 1.32,1.28 and now around $1.22 or so.

Yes in Australia we can vote on politics:p betting on sports is a mugs game!