Pisces
11-01-2012, 06:44 AM
It's a constant refrain from both sides these days. The two parties, the outside groups that are playing such a big role this year, and even some candidates themselves are so dubious about their own numbers that they are employing two pollsters for one race, using one to double-check the other. What flummoxes them even more is that their own party's pollsters are getting similar results, while the other side is offering a completely different take.
Whether it is the presidential contest or battles for critical Senate and House seats, the smartest pollsters in the business have spent the past three weeks looking at exactly the same data and coming to dramatically different conclusions.
The manifestation of these disagreements is evident in polling weights. Most Republican pollsters are using something close to a 2008 turnout model, with the same percentage of white, black and Hispanic voters as the electorate that first elected Obama. Most Democratic pollsters are a little more bullish on minority turnout, which helps explain some of the difference between the two sides.
Add in a population that's changing its habits and pollsters have to contend with additional confusing factors. The number of Americans without land line phones is growing, particularly among younger voters. Those voters are much more difficult to convince to complete a poll, surveyors say.
What concerns Republicans most is the fact that media polls seem to track more closely with Democratic internals than with the GOP's numbers. Internal surveys conducted for candidates like George Allen in Virginia, Richard Mourdock in Indiana and Josh Mandel in Ohio draw much rosier conclusions than polls conducted for their Democratic counterparts Tim Kaine, Joe Donnelly and Sherrod Brown. And media surveys, at least in Virginia and Ohio, show Kaine and Brown winning (restrictive Indiana laws make polling prohibitively expensive there).
http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/parties-wonder-which-side-s-polls-reflect-reality-20121101
I've been wondering why the polls are all over the place this year. This is happening not just in the Presidential race but in Congressional races as well. This is the first article I've seen that really looks into this.
Edit: Clarification on that last quoted paragraph - Republicans are concerned about media using the Democrats model of turnout not because it makes them doubt their own model but because they think it gives Democrats an unfair advantage. It increases enthusiasm for their candidates while depressing support for Republican candidates (in their view).
Whether it is the presidential contest or battles for critical Senate and House seats, the smartest pollsters in the business have spent the past three weeks looking at exactly the same data and coming to dramatically different conclusions.
The manifestation of these disagreements is evident in polling weights. Most Republican pollsters are using something close to a 2008 turnout model, with the same percentage of white, black and Hispanic voters as the electorate that first elected Obama. Most Democratic pollsters are a little more bullish on minority turnout, which helps explain some of the difference between the two sides.
Add in a population that's changing its habits and pollsters have to contend with additional confusing factors. The number of Americans without land line phones is growing, particularly among younger voters. Those voters are much more difficult to convince to complete a poll, surveyors say.
What concerns Republicans most is the fact that media polls seem to track more closely with Democratic internals than with the GOP's numbers. Internal surveys conducted for candidates like George Allen in Virginia, Richard Mourdock in Indiana and Josh Mandel in Ohio draw much rosier conclusions than polls conducted for their Democratic counterparts Tim Kaine, Joe Donnelly and Sherrod Brown. And media surveys, at least in Virginia and Ohio, show Kaine and Brown winning (restrictive Indiana laws make polling prohibitively expensive there).
http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/parties-wonder-which-side-s-polls-reflect-reality-20121101
I've been wondering why the polls are all over the place this year. This is happening not just in the Presidential race but in Congressional races as well. This is the first article I've seen that really looks into this.
Edit: Clarification on that last quoted paragraph - Republicans are concerned about media using the Democrats model of turnout not because it makes them doubt their own model but because they think it gives Democrats an unfair advantage. It increases enthusiasm for their candidates while depressing support for Republican candidates (in their view).