Karl Rove Predicts a Romney Win

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html


My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

Unlike Dick Morris, Rove's prognostications carry a little weight.

[supermario21]

Left or right, libertarian or socialist, I think everyone can agree that Karl Rove is the best campaign strategist in the game. I mean, he got GWB elected twice.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Morris is wrong about everything (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?394029-Dick-Morris-Romney-to-win-in-a-Landslide&p=4708348&viewfull=1#post4708348). Rove, meanwhile, correctly predicted Obama's blowout (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2008/11/karl-rove-predicts-obama-blowo.html) in 2008. He's not a total partisan unwilling to say a Republican will lose.

[MozoVote]

I don't see a Romney win as credible unless he can get either Ohio or Virginia. As I mentioned in the Dick Morris thread



Just losing those two states causes very difficult and implausible maps, for Romney to accumulate 270 electorial votes.
With VA and OH in hand, Obama could lose NH, WI, IA, CO, FL, and IA. And still have 274 votes.

[RickyJ]

What did you expect him to say in a close race? "Gee, I don't know" He is going to say what he thinks might give his guy that little extra to actually win. The race is tied, and Obama has the edge because of his lead in the battle ground states but it still could go either way.

[TheGrinch]

Morris is wrong about everything (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?394029-Dick-Morris-Romney-to-win-in-a-Landslide&p=4708348&viewfull=1#post4708348). Rove, meanwhile, correctly predicted Obama's blowout (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2008/11/karl-rove-predicts-obama-blowo.html) in 2008. He's not a total partisan unwilling to say a Republican will lose.

Sure's he a total partisan, if you consider that the neocons and democrats are essentially the same party right now.

But we do have diebold machines and goldman sachs pulled their money from Obama to Romney, so I guess anything is possible. Hell, even if you're not a skeptic like me, the economy could easily lose it for Obama.

[Confederate]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDdbOZsIwc8

[Dianne]

Who gives a f about Karl Rove... known and called by Pres... Bushit as "fart blossom" .. Rove will always remain a fart blossom in my heart, and trust me.. whenever I see his bald head.. I do remember his salutation... "fart blossom" . Fart blossom is Rove's legacy.

[scrosnoe]

Who gives a f about Karl Rove... known and called by Pres... Bushit as "fart blossom" .. Rove will always remain a fart blossom in my heart, and trust me.. whenever I see his bald head.. I do remember his salutation... "fart blossom" . Fart blossom is Rove's legacy.

i thought it was turd blossom but either way carries deep meaning for life's little realities...

[ShaneEnochs]

I can't see Romney winning.

[AGRP]

Im predicting a Goldman Sachs win.

[Shane Harris]

These predictions are making me realize how much I really want Obama to win.

[Don Lapre]

I predict a Romney win.


Romney 291
Soetoro 247

[Feeding the Abscess]

I predict a Romney win.


Romney 291
Soetoro 247

Thank god, freedom will be saved.

[CaptLouAlbano]

The video gives some decent analysis, though nothing too deep. I disagree with them on PA though. I have some contacts in the state and what I am hearing is that internal polling shows Obama town by 10+ points in most, if not all areas of PA with the exception of Philadelphia. In 08, Philadelphia went 83% for Obama (595,000 votes). The key to Obama holding PA is going to be turnout in Philadelphia, which requires a lot of door to door work on election day by the Dem machine. GOTV is very much a hands-on process in inner city Philly. Essentially, Obama needs to come close to matching his 2008 vote total in Philly for the math to work in his favor. If say his turnout is reduced and he pulls 500,000 votes out of the city it is likely that he will lose the state. Now, as we know, the enthusiasm for Obama is not what it was in 08. So if the precinct captains walk a little slower, take more breaks, stop and chat with people longer, etc - any distractions will reduce their effectiveness and hurt Obama's chances.

[CaptUSA]

So if the precinct captains walk a little slower, take more breaks, stop and chat with people longer, etc - any distractions will reduce their effectiveness and hurt Obama's chances.Or if they get roped into a conversation at someone's door for 20 minutes or a half hour or so... Not that I'm giving any advice... ;)

[CaptLouAlbano]

Or if they get roped into a conversation at someone's door for 20 minutes or a half hour or so... Not that I'm giving any advice... ;)

Pretty much so though. We are talking inner, inner, inner city here - the type of neighborhoods where you wouldn't want to drive through during the day. Philly has loads of them, particularly in the Northern section of the city. It's a God forsaken wasteland, and it is loaded with Obama voters - if they get them out to the polls. If you look at the electoral history of PA, when a R wins a statewide race it is usually because of Philly turnout. And Philly needs enthusiasm to turnout the vote. For example when Tom Corbett defeated Dan Onorato for governor the turnout wasn't there in Philly, possibly because Onorato was a Pittsburgh guy. But they turned out in droves when Philly native Ed Rendell ran.

Basically, if you remove Philly from the state, PA would be as red as Alabama.

[itshappening]

Romney cannot win thank god, as OHIO is in Obama's column, loads of polls show him ahead in that state by 3% or more so it is an OBAMA WN

[CaptLouAlbano]

Romney cannot win thank god, as OHIO is in Obama's column, loads of polls show him ahead in that state by 3% or more so it is an OBAMA WN

All OH polling within the last week or so is within the MOE. So with polling it's a tie. Ohio will come down to four counties in the state: Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont. How those four counties vote will be what tips the state in one direction or another. When you look at historic returns from OH, those four counties are what tilts the state.

[itshappening]

All OH polling within the last week or so is within the MOE. So with polling it's a tie. Ohio will come down to four counties in the state: Butler, Warren, Hamilton and Clermont. How those four counties vote will be what tips the state in one direction or another. When you look at historic returns from OH, those four counties are what tilts the state.

the statisticians say if you lead by 2.5% or more across polls there is a chance you take that state 80% of the time, this is why Obama is favored to win and why he's at nearly 70% on intrade and other bookmakers around the world make him favorite as without Ohio Romney has to do an improbable win of several states, some which will go for him anyway and others that clearly won't

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Romney cannot win thank god, as OHIO is in Obama's column, loads of polls show him ahead in that state by 3% or more so it is an OBAMA WN

Two Wisconsin polls out yesterday show either a tie or Romney leading. If he wins Wisconsin and New Hampshire, Romney won't need Ohio.

Plus those polls are using D+9 samples when the Ohio electorate in 2010 was R+1. I wouldn't put all your faith in them. Gallup wrote a piece recently saying why all these other pollsters are messing up.

[robert68]

... Gallup wrote a piece recently saying why all these other pollsters are messing up.

What do you expect them to say?

[CaptLouAlbano]

What do you expect them to say?

True. But of the polling companies I think Gallup and Rassmussen are the most scientific in their approach. I got polled twice this year recently, the one was PPP (i think) and the other was Gallup. The PPP questions to determine whether or not I was a "likely voter" were a lot softer than the Gallup ones. Gallup asked me if I voted in 08, who I voted for, if I knew where my polling location was, what was the name of it, what time of day i planned on voting, did i vote in 10, and a few others. They really were trying to weed out people who couldn't give sound answers to those questions.

[supermario21]

You also have to watch out for the PPP/Health Care for America Now polls. It's basically a push poll. They ask "who will make the wealthy pay their fair share?" and "who will stand up better for the middle class?" In other words, most of the polls are jokes. They are also substantially overestimating the early voting. Romney will probably win Iowa too if the early vote only hovers in the low-mid 30s of the total vote. The Marist/NBC poll which had Obama up 6 in Iowa (released last night) said over 40% of the state had early voted with a 62-34 edge to Obama. In Ohio, I live in the Democratic stronghold (Youngstown area). I just don't see the enthusiasm here this year. There were precincts where Nader outpolled McCain in the hardest of inner-city neighborhoods. Like an earlier poster said, Romney has been running up the numbers in SW Ohio and will do better here than 08. Obama also underperformed Kerry in this area (probably race-related) and Cleveland early voting has been down substantially. Obama also did decent in SE Ohio and will absolutely be destroyed by Romney there this time over coal, much like how PA has turned against Obama (Except Philly). Romney's internal polls have had him up, and Obama's have had him "close to where the public polling is." It wouldn't surprise me if the public polls like Quinnipiac, Time, etc are all grossly oversampling D's. Early voting goes the same here. Secretary of State Husted said last night on his FB page that 20% of those expected to vote have done so early, most of the polls say 35-40% in Ohio will early vote. Don't see a rush of early voters at this point in the game, especially since Obama cannibalizes his base to do so early on.