Tim724
11-20-2007, 12:03 PM
See you in Iowa
Nov 20th 2007 | AUSTIN
From Economist.com
Presidential candidates square up
WITH precious few weeks remaining before the Iowa caucus, on January 3rd, Mitt Romney must have mixed feelings. As the first official contest of the 2008 presidential election looms, the would-be Republican candidate for president sits between second and fourth place in most national polls. But Rudy Giuliani, the leading candidate, has been focusing on populous states that vote a bit later, such as Florida. This leaves the way clearer for Mr Romney to campaign hard in Iowa and New Hampshire, which holds the first primary of the race. If he could only grab these early victories he could be propelled to front-runner status all around the country.
But consider this scenario. Mr Romney lavished money and attention on Iowa back in August for the Republican straw poll. Spending millions of dollars and travelling to little towns all over the prairie, he slogged far harder than his rivals. In the end he won the poll but it was a qualified triumph. Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, surprised watchers with a strong second-place finish. Mr Romney stood by while his little-known rival reaped the praise and the attention.
Mr Romney's fear is that his previous experience in Iowa could repeat itself. His efforts have paid off so far: he leads most polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. But his margins are doubtless narrower than he would prefer. A poll on November 13th by CBS News and the New York Times showed him winning just 27% of the vote. And it is notoriously difficult to suss out Iowa's electorate. Many voters wait until the last minute to make up their minds, and individual voters may switch sides at the caucus itself if their top candidate looks like a clear loser.
At least the Romney campaign knows what to expect this time. His most serious threat is again Mr Huckabee. In the past few months—since the straw poll—Mr Huckabee’s rise has been swift and dramatic. In national polls he remains a marginal character but in Iowa he comes in second with around 20% of the vote. He has won the support of Chuck Norris, a hero of many action films. His campaign's first television advert in Iowa, released on Monday, touts this achievement. “Chuck Norris doesn’t endorse,” deadpanned Mr Huckabee. “He tells America how it’s going to be.”
Mr Huckabee will probably grab second place in the caucus; some are wondering whether he might even pull off an upset. Neither outcome is likely to yield a President Huckabee. His campaign is underfunded and understaffed in comparison with those of his opponents. It would be difficult for him to capitalise on a good showing in the state. And as an underdog, he has met little critical resistance thus far. Most press reports are more interested in his personal charm than his policies, and his opponents have not bothered to attack him until recently. So Mr Huckabee’s post-Iowa strategy is unclear. But perhaps he hopes for a vice-presidential nomination from a grateful Giuliani campaign.
The wild card in the Iowa caucus is Ron Paul, a libertarian congressman from Texas best known for taking a lonely position on several issues. Among these are a desire to abolish income tax and return to the gold standard. Alone among the Republican candidates, Mr Paul advocates an immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. His supporters are highly motivated. On a single day, November 5th, his fundraisers reportedly raked in $4.3m.
The most recent polls from Iowa suggest that Mr Paul will get just 4%. That is not enough to make him a menace, but he is not on the farthest edge of the fringe, either. If he is able to pick up a few more percentage points, he will receive more attention from mainstream voters. And unlike the other candidates destined to be remembered as also-rans, Mr Paul has not committed his support to the eventual nominee. He says that he has no intention of running as an independent, but a strong showing in Iowa might put the notion in his head.
Several of the leading Republican candidates have already turned their attention away from Iowa. John McCain, back in fighting form after a hapless summer, says that he will win New Hampshire outright. Mr Giuliani spent the weekend exploring American culture at a NASCAR race in Homestead, Florida. The Iowa caucus matters most to Mr Romney. But all of their fortunes will be affected.
Nov 20th 2007 | AUSTIN
From Economist.com
Presidential candidates square up
WITH precious few weeks remaining before the Iowa caucus, on January 3rd, Mitt Romney must have mixed feelings. As the first official contest of the 2008 presidential election looms, the would-be Republican candidate for president sits between second and fourth place in most national polls. But Rudy Giuliani, the leading candidate, has been focusing on populous states that vote a bit later, such as Florida. This leaves the way clearer for Mr Romney to campaign hard in Iowa and New Hampshire, which holds the first primary of the race. If he could only grab these early victories he could be propelled to front-runner status all around the country.
But consider this scenario. Mr Romney lavished money and attention on Iowa back in August for the Republican straw poll. Spending millions of dollars and travelling to little towns all over the prairie, he slogged far harder than his rivals. In the end he won the poll but it was a qualified triumph. Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, surprised watchers with a strong second-place finish. Mr Romney stood by while his little-known rival reaped the praise and the attention.
Mr Romney's fear is that his previous experience in Iowa could repeat itself. His efforts have paid off so far: he leads most polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. But his margins are doubtless narrower than he would prefer. A poll on November 13th by CBS News and the New York Times showed him winning just 27% of the vote. And it is notoriously difficult to suss out Iowa's electorate. Many voters wait until the last minute to make up their minds, and individual voters may switch sides at the caucus itself if their top candidate looks like a clear loser.
At least the Romney campaign knows what to expect this time. His most serious threat is again Mr Huckabee. In the past few months—since the straw poll—Mr Huckabee’s rise has been swift and dramatic. In national polls he remains a marginal character but in Iowa he comes in second with around 20% of the vote. He has won the support of Chuck Norris, a hero of many action films. His campaign's first television advert in Iowa, released on Monday, touts this achievement. “Chuck Norris doesn’t endorse,” deadpanned Mr Huckabee. “He tells America how it’s going to be.”
Mr Huckabee will probably grab second place in the caucus; some are wondering whether he might even pull off an upset. Neither outcome is likely to yield a President Huckabee. His campaign is underfunded and understaffed in comparison with those of his opponents. It would be difficult for him to capitalise on a good showing in the state. And as an underdog, he has met little critical resistance thus far. Most press reports are more interested in his personal charm than his policies, and his opponents have not bothered to attack him until recently. So Mr Huckabee’s post-Iowa strategy is unclear. But perhaps he hopes for a vice-presidential nomination from a grateful Giuliani campaign.
The wild card in the Iowa caucus is Ron Paul, a libertarian congressman from Texas best known for taking a lonely position on several issues. Among these are a desire to abolish income tax and return to the gold standard. Alone among the Republican candidates, Mr Paul advocates an immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. His supporters are highly motivated. On a single day, November 5th, his fundraisers reportedly raked in $4.3m.
The most recent polls from Iowa suggest that Mr Paul will get just 4%. That is not enough to make him a menace, but he is not on the farthest edge of the fringe, either. If he is able to pick up a few more percentage points, he will receive more attention from mainstream voters. And unlike the other candidates destined to be remembered as also-rans, Mr Paul has not committed his support to the eventual nominee. He says that he has no intention of running as an independent, but a strong showing in Iowa might put the notion in his head.
Several of the leading Republican candidates have already turned their attention away from Iowa. John McCain, back in fighting form after a hapless summer, says that he will win New Hampshire outright. Mr Giuliani spent the weekend exploring American culture at a NASCAR race in Homestead, Florida. The Iowa caucus matters most to Mr Romney. But all of their fortunes will be affected.