Dick Morris: Romney to win in a Landslide [Archive] - Ron Paul Forums / Liberty Forest

Todd

10-31-2012, 11:54 AM

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide

Voters have figured out that President Obama has no message, no agenda and not even much of an explanation for what he has done over the past four years. His campaign is based entirely on persuading people that Mitt Romney is a uniquely bad man, entirely dedicated to the rich, ignorant of the problems of the average person. As long as he could run his negative ads, the campaign at least kept voters away from the Romney bandwagon. But once we all met Mitt Romney for three 90-minute debates, we got to know him — and to like him. He was not the monster Obama depicted, but a reasonable person for whom we could vote.

As we stripped away Obama’s yearlong campaign of vilification, all the president offered us was more servings of negative ads — ads we had already dismissed as not credible. He kept doing the same thing even as it stopped working.

The result was that the presidential race reached a tipping point. Reasonable voters saw that the voice of hope and optimism and positivism was Romney while the president was only a nitpicking, quarrelsome, negative figure. The contrast does not work in Obama’s favor.

His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).

Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.

And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.

In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground. (cont. at link)

I think Dick is delusional.

Sola_Fide

10-31-2012, 11:55 AM

He's always predicting these huge (R) wins and they never happen.

CaptUSA

10-31-2012, 11:59 AM

Isn't there a toe to suck on some place?

matt0611

10-31-2012, 12:25 PM

Elwar

10-31-2012, 12:28 PM

Looks like Dick Morris is starting to believe the insane propaganda of the Drudge Report.

Madison320

10-31-2012, 12:30 PM

matt0611

10-31-2012, 12:32 PM

Dick Morris is an idiot. Listen to him trash Ron Paul:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frM-GPAjzDY

That being said I think Obama is going to get less votes than the polls show. I think a lot of Obama voters are going to stay home.

Yep, a lot of the polls assume a similar situation of 2008 and the democrat enthusiasm has definitely gone down in the last 4 years.

Obama isn't "new" anymore and the idea of "hope and change" stuff is a joke.

Anti Federalist

10-31-2012, 12:41 PM

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide

I think Dick is delusional.

New polling in Ohio has Obama up by 2.

This is consistent with all polling in Ohio.

Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 10/25 - 10/30 1182 LV 2.9 48 46 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 4.0 48 50 Romney +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie
Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News 10/18 - 10/23 1015 LV 3.1 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3
Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/13 880 LV 3.3 51 46 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/10 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/10 1313 LV 2.7 45 46 Romney +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6
ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1
CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/5 - 10/8 808 LV 3.5 45 44 Obama +1
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 50 49 Obama +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 931 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

O-bomb-ya could lose every "swing state" except Ohio and still win.

This is my map and how I think it might play out.

http://i.imgur.com/gexD4.png

CaptUSA

10-31-2012, 12:43 PM

Obama isn't "new" anymore and the idea of "hope and change" stuff is a joke.
I agree. Does anyone know anyone who voted for McCain last time and is voting for Obama this time?! Not I.

In order to win Obama would need an influx of new voters that didn't vote last time to make up for the ones he's going to lose. This means the young voters. But Obama isn't cool anymore. Too many young voters just don't care.

Personally, I don't care which guy wins. I have reasons why I think one might be better than the other on different issues, but it's a total wash. They both suck toes. (probably explains Morris' interest in this race.)

opal

10-31-2012, 12:45 PM

Isn't there a toe to suck on some place?

*giggle* +1 rep

EBounding

10-31-2012, 12:47 PM

Romney has a 25% chance of winning. That may seem low, but I believe that's the same chance you have of getting pregnant.

Morris is usually wrong though. I think he's using hyperbole so he can give himself credibility if it actually happens. If it doesn't, he'll just sweep it under the rug like all his other predictions.

NCGOPer_for_Paul

10-31-2012, 12:48 PM

I'm beginning to think that a Romney landslide is possible. Based on some analysis that was done on early voting here in NC, it started strong for the Democrats, but it has tailed off, and is nowhere near the 2008 levels. In Ohio, Republican early voting is up, and Democrat early voting is significantly down.

My orginial prediction of Obama 271 - Romney 267 still stands, but I'll up my popular vote difference to about 2% for Romney (49-47, Johnson 3)

However, if NC is called shortly after the polls close, and NJ and MN aren't called the minute the polls close there, I'd say Romney has it by a large margin.

Obama sent Clinton to Minnesota yesterday and Biden to PA. The incumbent shouldn't have to defend there. Even Oregon is showing a Romney opportunity.

A Son of Liberty

10-31-2012, 12:50 PM

http://i.imgur.com/gexD4.png

Yeah, it always looks fairly similar to this. Why is this a single country again? ;)

Anti Federalist

10-31-2012, 12:51 PM

Yeah, it always looks fairly similar to this. Why is this a single country again? ;)

And that is the $64,000 question.

Rothbardian Girl

10-31-2012, 01:20 PM

I'm worried about Obama's chances as well. College voters were one of Obama's most dependable blocs in 2008, and as I'm on campus here in 2012, the level of visible support for him here has dwindled. Then again, I'm in a traditionally conservative region of the country right now, so maybe the level of support for Obama wasn't all that high to begin with in 2008. (I wasn't here for that.)

RonPaulFanInGA

10-31-2012, 01:25 PM

New polling in Ohio has Obama up by 2.

This is consistent with all polling in Ohio.

You're going to be disappointed if you hang your hat on those media polls. PPP has an Ohio poll out today with a D+9 weighting, with 45% of the Ohio electorate as Democrats and only 19% as independents. Complete bullcrap. In 2008, a democratic wave election, Ohio was D+8, and in 2010 it was R+1. These pollsters weighting their samples in Ohio now as D+8 and now D+9 are going to have some explaining to do a week from now. Gallup has Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in the tank, and PPP apparently thinks there will be a greater percentage of Democrats voting than in 2008?

Personally think Romney will win FL, VA, NC and CO. Obama will win PA, MI and MN. Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Ohio are the four states in the air, for me.

bunklocoempire

10-31-2012, 01:32 PM

IMO Romney would be the best thing for TPTB.

Anti Federalist

10-31-2012, 01:35 PM

Hate?

Is that a typo?

And shit, I'm not gonna sit and argue about these polls and their intricacies, since I am convinced the whole process is rigged anyways, especially in electronic voting machine states.

To sit and overly analyze any of it is as pointless as arguing sports teams.

Maybe you're right, maybe all the polling is bullshit, but I recall everybody shouting down the pollsters when Ron was running and they came out damn near exactly right.

Whatever...any other election, especially one as pointless as this, when it comes down to both of these sluts being pretty much mirror images of each other, I would not care at all.

My only vested interest in this election is: Romney has a home close to me and I don't want the national security apparatus invading and hut hutting about and bossing people around and pointing machine guns at people.

You're going to be disappointed if you hang your hat on those media polls. PPP has an Ohio poll out today with a D+9 weighting, with 45% of the Ohio electorate as Democrats. Complete bullcrap. In 2008, a democratic wave election, Ohio was only D+4, and in 2010 it was R+1. These pollsters weighting their samples in Ohio now as D+7, D+8 and now D+9 are going to have some explaining to do a week from now. Gallup has Democratic turnout and enthusiam in the tank and they think there will be a greater percentage of Democrats voting than in 2008?

RonPaulFanInGA

10-31-2012, 01:43 PM

http://www.dickmorris.com/blog/

October 28, 2008:

As we enter the final week, this election is not yet over. Zogby shows Obama’s lead collapsing from 12 points on Thursday of last week to just five points over this past weekend. Other polls have Obama’s lead in the 5-7 point range, little enough ground to close in six more days. Only surveys that have quotas for large number of Democratic participants show Obama’s lead to be in double digits.

October 29, 2008:

But the basic point, one week before Election Day, is that even if Obama clings to a four- or five-point lead over McCain in the polling, the election is not over. The question is not so much how large his lead is over the Republican, but whether or not he is topping 50 percent. As long as the polling leaves him below that mark, he is vulnerable and could well lose.

October 30, 2008:

So we approach Election Day with the possibility of a rerun of 2000 plainly before us. McCain has closed to a point where the race will likely be very, very close - and we’ll have to stay up very, very late on Election Night.

October 31, 2008:

A massive shift in younger and older voters is roiling the presidential race according to new data from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll concluded October 28-29. Younger voters — under 45 — once Obama’s base, now are evenly divided between the two candidates. But voters over 65 have shifted sharply to the Democrat in the past week.

November 3, 2008:

It’s only a one night poll, but John Zogby reports that his Friday night survey shows McCain leading Obama by 48 to 47. It’s only a one night poll (as opposed to the usual three day moving average) but it is 1,000 interviews. It is also over Halloween night! But it is the first poll in three weeks that shows McCain leading. What’s up? We think that the advertisement being run by GOPTrust.com is having an effect.

EBounding

10-31-2012, 01:52 PM

^ thanks for digging those up. lol

Michael Landon

10-31-2012, 02:31 PM

Morris is right, Romney will win in a landslide. Romney cheated to get the nomination so I'm fairly certain he'll cheat to get the Presidency.

- ML

VBRonPaulFan

10-31-2012, 02:53 PM

hahahah @ the OP. that is pretty much exactly the same thing Rmoney has been doing to Obama!!

Romney's entire presidential run so far has been nothing but vague platitudes and talking points. does anyone know the specifics of his tax plan? how about his foreign policy (besides being just as war-mongering as Obama)? he hasn't been clear on monetary policy other than hinting at not keeping Bernanke around. And probably everyone has seen Romney's ads about how Obama stuck your kids with 16T in debt, his reckless spending, etc. The disconnect between Morris and reality is freakin' hilarious!

I don't see Romney winning this, and I don't think it'll even be very close. People HATE Romney, it's a visceral reaction to his bullshit. Obama is more charismatic and even though his ideology and policy has been absurd, the fact that people don't hate him means he'll probably end up getting more last minute votes than Romney will IMO.

Sola_Fide

10-31-2012, 02:53 PM

Morris is right, Romney will win in a landslide. Romney cheated to get the nomination so I'm fairly certain he'll cheat to get the Presidency.

- ML

Maybe he has made better promises to the banskters than Obama this time. Maybe they will give it to him this time. Who knows...

pahs1994

10-31-2012, 03:15 PM

I really think PA will be close. Perhaps it is just the lack of the campaigns being active in this area this time around, But in my corner of PA there are zero Obama signs this year. In 2008, my area leans heavy democratic, and there were tons of Obummer signs everywhere. I dunno if that means anything but i just get the feeling the enthusiasm isn't here anymore.

I really think the democrats screwed themselves out an easy to win state for them. For as bad as Romney is, they made him out to be a monster that will kill puppies and push your grandma down the steps on tv for the last 6 months. They set the bar so low for Romney, that him just showing up to the debate without puppy blood on his shirt was enough for people to think he wasn't so bad. Of course all of us Paul supporters from the primary know better.

AGRP

10-31-2012, 03:24 PM

http://www.bartcop.com/morris-toe-suck.jpg

rpfocus

10-31-2012, 03:31 PM

I guess I'm the only one who sees Obama winning the EC, and not by a slim margin. Good thing California counts Paul write-in votes! It's great to no longer have the emotional investment that so many GOP touts have currently, because I see their guy losing the election. There will be many tears and much gnashing of teeth while I grin broadly at the GOP in revenge for the virtual spit in the face during the primaries.

Ron Paul for President!

devil21

10-31-2012, 03:39 PM

I'm starting to think Mitt will pull this off. A lot of the polls assume a pretty decent democrat turnout that I don't see happening. If Ohio goes to Romney then its over IMO. The early voting does not look good for Obama.

I just heard on the radio that early voting in multiple swing states has been heavily for Dems with Republicans (they can't mention specific candidate names) only winning Colorado in early voting so far. Not sure what info you are seeing but it seems, like usual, the info is conflicting depending on who you ask.

Btw, I would expect nothing other from Dick Morris. There's a common practice leading up to elections where pundits try to push a candidate as "winning big" to get people to vote for the "winner" so they feel like they voted for the winning team, instead of having to explain why they voted for the "loser". Im chalking up most of these polls and punditry as noise.

matt0611

10-31-2012, 03:43 PM

I just heard on the radio that early voting in multiple swing states has been heavily for Dems with Republicans (they can't mention specific candidate names) only winning Colorado in early voting so far. Not sure what info you are seeing but it seems, like usual, the info is conflicting depending on who you ask.

Btw, I would expect nothing other from Dick Morris. There's a common practice leading up to elections where pundits try to push a candidate as "winning big" to get people to vote for the "winner" so they feel like they voted for the winning team, instead of having to explain why they voted for the "loser". Im chalking up most of these polls and punditry as noise.

No, no, I'm not saying Obama isn't winning early polling (he is), I'm saying he's not winning them like he did in 2008. Most of the polls way overweight democrats in the states and I think they're gonna be pretty off on their expectations.

Don't get me wrong, it doesn't matter much to me who wins. But if I had to bet right now I'd bet on Romney winning.

supermario21

10-31-2012, 03:44 PM

The problems is Dems are supposed to win EV. They're not doing it by enough though. In Ohio, Romney is running up huge margins compared to McCain and Obama is down in his key areas where he needs to run up the vote. Remember most of these polls have Obama winning by 25-30 pts in EV and having that be 30-40 points of the overall turnout. In Ohio the secretary of state put out a report showing EV has only accounted for 22% of 2008 total turnout. That's a huge negative for Democrats.

devil21

10-31-2012, 03:47 PM

Comparing elections to 2008 is a rather bad comparison since most Pres elections come down to very small blocks of voters, not the sort of ass whipping Obama put on McCain. Romney will do better than McCain did but not enough to make up 100 electoral votes imo.

CaptLouAlbano

10-31-2012, 03:52 PM

I'm starting to think Mitt will pull this off. A lot of the polls assume a pretty decent democrat turnout that I don't see happening. If Ohio goes to Romney then its over IMO. The early voting does not look good for Obama.

I'm with you on this. Out of the 11 toss-ups according to RealClearPolitics, I am thinking Romney takes at least 7 of them and quite possibly all of them. Dem turnout is going to be low, particularly in the inner cities, where it requires the "machine" to GOTV.

chudrockz

10-31-2012, 04:01 PM

I told some of my inlaws last weekend that I think Romney is going to get trounced. I still think that. And I hope it.

rprprs

10-31-2012, 04:17 PM

I told some of my inlaws last weekend that I think Romney is going to get trounced. I still think that. And I hope it.

I won't go so far as to say Romney will get "trounced", but he'll definitely be the loser.
Obama will win this on personality, a successful class-warfare campaign and, most recently, a little help from Sandy.
While there may not be the enthusiasm for the hope-and-change Obama of 2008, there is even less enthusiasm for his rival.

Shane Harris

10-31-2012, 04:29 PM

New polling in Ohio has Obama up by 2.

This is consistent with all polling in Ohio.

Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 10/25 - 10/30 1182 LV 2.9 48 46 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 4.0 48 50 Romney +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie
Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News 10/18 - 10/23 1015 LV 3.1 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3
Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/13 880 LV 3.3 51 46 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/10 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/10 1313 LV 2.7 45 46 Romney +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6
ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1
CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/5 - 10/8 808 LV 3.5 45 44 Obama +1
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 50 49 Obama +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 931 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

O-bomb-ya could lose every "swing state" except Ohio and still win.

This is my map and how I think it might play out.

http://i.imgur.com/gexD4.png

ha! This is identical to my map that I made two days ago.

Shane Harris

10-31-2012, 04:41 PM

I think (and hope) Obama will pull it out. It won't be a blowout like 4 years ago but he will still win.

JJ2

10-31-2012, 04:52 PM

New polling in Ohio has Obama up by 2.

This is consistent with all polling in Ohio.

Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 10/25 - 10/30 1182 LV 2.9 48 46 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 4.0 48 50 Romney +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie
Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News 10/18 - 10/23 1015 LV 3.1 49 49 Tie
SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3
Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/12 - 10/13 880 LV 3.3 51 46 Obama +5
Rasmussen Reports 10/10 - 10/10 750 LV 4.0 48 47 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/6 - 10/10 1313 LV 2.7 45 46 Romney +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/7 - 10/9 994 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6
ARG 10/5 - 10/8 600 LV 4.0 47 48 Romney +1
CNN/Opinion Research 10/5 - 10/8 722 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/5 - 10/8 808 LV 3.5 45 44 Obama +1
WeAskAmerica 10/4 - 10/4 1200 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1
Rasmussen Reports 10/4 - 10/4 500 LV 4.5 50 49 Obama +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist 9/30 - 10/1 931 LV 3.2 51 43 Obama +8

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

O-bomb-ya could lose every "swing state" except Ohio and still win.

This is my map and how I think it might play out.

http://i.imgur.com/gexD4.png

Now imagine NV and NH switched. Then the fun really would begin! :D

devil21

10-31-2012, 04:55 PM

Why oh why did our Presidential Electors expose themselves and quit? There's no more leverage possible than an electoral map like the one above when the last 3 or 4 votes are RON PAUL PEOPLE!

supermario21

10-31-2012, 05:22 PM

torchbearer

10-31-2012, 05:25 PM

Why oh why did our Presidential Electors expose themselves and quit? There's no more leverage possible than an electoral map like the one above when the last 3 or 4 votes are RON PAUL PEOPLE!

i've been thinking this for awhile.

torchbearer

10-31-2012, 05:28 PM

My problem with an Obama win is that he's trying to win votes by tearing down mostly our (not even Romney's!) positions. For example, do you watch how the left attacks Romney (and other R's) on entitlements, etc? You'd think Romney was the Libertarian nominee with some of the attack ads (privatize Medicare/SS), eliminate/privatize FEMA, cut taxes, reduce domestic spending. I think we need to figure out how to refine our message over the next few years. It just kind of scares me and it might not be an issue, but I just feel we're the scapegoats even when we have a fairly centrist Republican running.

i've figured it out.
you don't say you want to eliminate things.
In fact, you tell the libs that you agree with the ends. You want to provide healthcare for everyone. WHere you disagree on is the means.
I do not believe in using force against my neighbor. If a goal is noble and people want it, why wouldn't they want to fund it voluntarily?
why would you need to force someone to participate in such noble programs everyone wants?

NoOneButPaul

10-31-2012, 05:33 PM

Obama has a crisis to milk right now.

That's the nail in the coffin folks... Obama will win and there's absolutely no doubt in my mind.

jj-

10-31-2012, 05:40 PM

Best indicator for Obama.

heavenlyboy34

10-31-2012, 06:11 PM

Yeah, it always looks fairly similar to this. Why is this a single country again? ;)
The Civil War answered that question, citizen. ;) Now, no more questions!

Brett85

10-31-2012, 06:15 PM

The polls look pretty bad for Romney today. I think if the election had been held a week ago, Romney would've won. However, it looks as though the Hurricane is giving Obama a big boost.

TCE

10-31-2012, 06:17 PM

I can't believe we've gone an entire Dick Morris thread and no one has posted this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frM-GPAjzDY

torchbearer

10-31-2012, 06:18 PM

The polls look pretty bad for Romney today. I think if the election had been held a week ago, Romney would've won. However, it looks as though the Hurricane is giving Obama a big boost.

link?

Brett85

10-31-2012, 06:21 PM

link?

Well, the RCP average of national polls went from Romney +.8 to a tie. Obama's average went up today in Ohio and Colorado as well. I'm skeptical of the polls since they seem to be predicting a huge Democratic turnout, but the polls do seem to be trending in Obama's direction over the last couple of days.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

thoughtomator

10-31-2012, 06:25 PM

I'd give an outlier chance that Morris could be right. It's possible. Not likely IMO but possible.

What makes me think it possible was a conversation I had with a relative who is a pretty hardcore "academic socialist" - e.g. thinks universal health care is a no-brainer, reliably votes Democrat for everything, NY Times reader/NPR & CNN listener. He told me he might actually vote Romney this year, which is stunning, while describing Obama in terms that would also well describe Hamlet. He is a deep, doctrinnaire left winger, and if he is considering Romney then Obama's support is soft indeed.

It would not terribly surprise me if the enthusiasm gap made the difference in the election, but I think a "landslide" prediction is too rosy.

MozoVote

10-31-2012, 07:43 PM

supermario21

10-31-2012, 08:58 PM

I expect Obama will win Virginia. There are too many headwinds for Romney there. Ohio is a battleground every election, but the polls have been pretty consistent for Obama and he's the incumbent, so I think he'll get it.

Just losing those two states causes very difficult and implausible maps, for Romney to accumulate 270 electorial votes.

With VA and OH in hand, Obama could lose NH, WI, IA, CO, FL, and IA. And still have 274 votes.

What are the headwinds? The polls without a chronic over sampling of D's all have Romney winning. Heck a Norfolk poll with a D turnout advantage closer to 08 than the R advantage of 04 gave Romney a 5 pt. edge. Same with Allen over Kaine.

cindy25

10-31-2012, 09:58 PM

I expect Obama will win Virginia. There are too many headwinds for Romney there. Ohio is a battleground every election, but the polls have been pretty consistent for Obama and he's the incumbent, so I think he'll get it.

Just losing those two states causes very difficult and implausible maps, for Romney to accumulate 270 electorial votes.

With VA and OH in hand, Obama could lose NH, WI, IA, CO, FL, and IA. And still have 274 votes.

PA might be in play, simply because the Philly turnout will be down

and if there are black riots anywhere over the weekend it would result in a Romney landslide

VBRonPaulFan

11-01-2012, 08:26 AM

I expect Obama will win Virginia. There are too many headwinds for Romney there. Ohio is a battleground every election, but the polls have been pretty consistent for Obama and he's the incumbent, so I think he'll get it.

Just losing those two states causes very difficult and implausible maps, for Romney to accumulate 270 electorial votes.

With VA and OH in hand, Obama could lose NH, WI, IA, CO, FL, and IA. And still have 274 votes.

as far as VA goes, I can tell you that there is no enthusiasm in my area at all for Romney. You hardly see any Romney signs, and none of the younger folks i've talked with even like Romney. he's got the older vote locked up because those people are 'Team R' establishment type Republicans. He won't get any of the independent/swing vote around here though IMO.

itshappening

11-01-2012, 09:48 AM

without Ohio Romney has to win Wisconsin, Michigan etc. it's very improbable

Polls in Ohio show Obama ahead by at least 3% which makes it 80% he wins at this stage.

It will be alot closer in states like IA and CO this time around though Obama will likely take those with reduced margins. He won't win the likes of Indiana and NC again and FL will go for Romney but it wont matter much.

Peace&Freedom

11-01-2012, 10:00 AM

It's still Obama's race to lose, and though it's possible the power elite will pull the rug on him next week via election fraud, his re-election has been hardwired by the establishment as Plan A for months, if not years. The FOX media has been pumping artificial momentum into Mitt's chances for weeks, but even Sen. Graham has been admitting that the White House is in "run out the clock" mode. You don't play run out the clock, unless you have the lead.