Contrarian point of view (to Intrade #s): Ohio always votes 2% to the right of national %

[Agorism]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2944697/posts

More like 0-1% in recent years but whatever.


2008

National: Obama 52.87 McCain 45.60
Ohio: Obama 51.38 McCain 46.80

2004

National: Bush 50.73 Kerry 48.27
Ohio: Bush 50.81 Kerry 48.71

2000

National: Bush 47.87 Gore 48.27 Nader 2.73
Ohio: Bush 49.97 Gore 48.71 Nader 2.5

1996

National: Clinton 49.23 Dole 40.72 Perot 8.4
Ohio: Clinton 47.38 Dole 41.02 Perot 10.66

1992

National: Clinton 43.01 Bush 37.45 Perot 18.91
Ohio: Clinton 40.18 Bush 38.35 Perot 20.98

1988

National: Bush 53.37 Dukakis 45.65
Ohio: Bush 55.00 Dukakis 44.15

Since 1988, There is a very close relationship between the overall national vote and the Ohio vote. With the exception of 2004, but not by much, the democrat always underperforms in Ohio relative to the national vote. If Romney is up 2 Nationally, he will probably win Ohio by 3 to 4 points.


I still think Intrade is correct on this one though
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/



Democratic nominee to win Ohio

Event: Ohio
Share on facebookShare on twitter
66.0%
CHANCE
Predict

Republican nominee to win Ohio

Event: Ohio
Share on facebookShare on twitter
34.0%
CHANCE