Is Amash in trouble?

[mz10]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-republicans-will-hold-the-house/

Downgraded to "Leans Republican." I realize he's still the favorite in the race, but Pestka seems to have the momentum. Is there any truth in this? If he loses that will be devastating for our movement.

[sailingaway]

It is possible. It depends on what poll you read.

And I agree we need him.

[Pisces]

Polls seem to be all over the place this year. Is Pestka pro-life? Some of the national pro-life groups didn't like some of Amash's votes this past year. Amash is pro-life, but if these groups convinced some of the voters in the district that he's not strong on this issue, they may go with Pestka if he is a pro-life democrat.

We hear a lot about voters who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. There are also a lot of voters, especially in Rust Belt states, that are fiscally liberal and socially conservative. I hope Amash can get through to some of these groups that much of the so-called pro-life legislation he voted against was just meaningless gimmicks meant to placate the base.

[LibertyEagle]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-republicans-will-hold-the-house/

Downgraded to "Leans Republican." I realize he's still the favorite in the race, but Pestka seems to have the momentum. Is there any truth in this? If he loses that will be devastating for our movement.

If you are worried about it, you could help both he and Bentivolio out by making sure that there are positive comments under articles about them on the web. We were specifically asked to do this, but few seem to give a rat's ass.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?393463-Comment-squad-needed-for-Bentivolio-and-Amash-to-counter-slams-under-articles-and-Facebook

Also, Ron Paul is asking that we donate to Justin's campaign so that he can run an ad. He needs it by November 5th.
http://www.dailypaul.com/260830/urgent-ron-paul-asks-for-money-for-justin-amash-now-moneybomb

[supermario21]

Reading some of the local news articles and their comments section, it seems that most people up their are opposed to libertarianism, or do not just understand what it entails. Sadly, I don't think they respect his principles. One comment said libertarianism isn't real and just referred to as socialism in the rest of the world.

"Justin Amash might as well live in a bubble, he has no life experience beyond his paid for private education his parents gave him. He is very book smart, and stong on ideology, problem is, he doesn't have a clue about middle class America and he doesn't even know that poverty exists. Planned Parenthood, for example, is an invaluable resource for people in poverty that have no access to healthcare and inevitably need family planning services. They prevent and deter many, many more women from abortions than they actually do. Amash and his ideology and life of priviledge wouldn't or couldn't understand the need for planned parenthood or healthcare, the irony is that he is actually against funding planned parenthood and the RTL's dropped him anyway. Like anything that Amash touches, it is pretty much irrelevant, for the middle class and our district."

Another harsh one said that he should become less rigid, saying he would be in trouble if he had a primary challenger and that his ideology is not always in the interest of the constituents. Some said he votes no too much and that he's wasting our time doing so.

In conclusion, we should comment squad and support him, but it is disturbing that mainstream people hold these views. No wonder Congress's approval is pathetic, most of the people don't understand how it works! I hope he can win, but I feel that libertarianism still doesn't resonate in the rust belt, as Pisces said.

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2012/07/justin_amash_loses_right_to_li.html

[mz10]

Does anyone know if LFA has been involved with this race?

[tsai3904]

Does anyone know if LFA has been involved with this race?

According to FEC reports, they have not been involved.

[EBounding]

I can do $100. Should I split it between Amash and Bentivolio?

[tsai3904]

I can do $100. Should I split it between Amash and Bentivolio?

Up to you but I think both will pull out victories so I would be more inclined to give to Bentivolio. Amash has over $400k cash on hand while Bentivolio has more debt than cash on hand. If Bentivolio wins, he will more than likely have a primary challenger too, which means he'll be campaigning again in less than a year and a half.

[mz10]

Up to you but I think both will pull out victories so I would be more inclined to give to Bentivolio. Amash has over $400k cash on hand while Bentivolio has more debt than cash on hand. If Bentivolio wins, he will more than likely have a primary challenger too, which means he'll be campaigning again in less than a year and a half.

I disagree, Amash has been a leader for our movement. Bentivolio certainly is in line with our philosophy, but I don't think he has the same leadership qualities. In my opinion, it is more important for Amash to be in Congress.

[tsai3904]

I disagree, Amash has been a leader for our movement. Bentivolio certainly is in line with our philosophy, but I don't think he has the same leadership qualities. In my opinion, it is more important for Amash to be in Congress.

I agree that Amash is more important to be in Congress. That's why I said since I think both will win, I would prefer to donate to Bentivolio because of his specific situation (more debt than cash and likely primary challenger in a year). I am not judging Amash and Bentivolio on their chances to win. If you feel like Amash has a greater chance to lose, then by all means, donate to him.

Obviously we all want Ron Paul to be in Congress but if he were running for reelection, would it be wise to max out to him first then donate to others like Amash? No because Ron would have a 95% chance of winning and your money would be better spent elsewhere.

[EBounding]

Maybe it's just me since I'm closer to the district, but Bentivolio (ironically) seems to be getting more support from the party than Amash. I'm guessing it's because the 11th is the strongest Republican district and they don't want to lose it.

[DeMintConservative]

Both will eventually win, but if I had to bet on an upset, it'd definitely be Amash. I rate Bentivolio as Safe R, Amash as Lean/Likely R - mostly because Bentivolio's opponent is so weak.

If this year was 2006/2008 and the D running on MI-11 was a good candidate, I think both these seats would be gone.

It underscores how bizarre is the thesis that Ron Paul Republicans are better electoral bets and able to draw the support of liberals and centrists. Romney will easily outperform both these guys.

[LibertyEagle]

Both will eventually win, but if I had to bet on an upset, it'd definitely be Amash. I rate Bentivolio as Safe R, Amash as Lean/Likely R - mostly because Bentivolio's opponent is so weak.

If this year was 2006/2008 and the D running on MI-11 was a good candidate, I think both these seats would be gone.

It underscores how bizarre is the thesis that Ron Paul Republicans are better electoral bets and able to draw the support of liberals and centrists. Romney will easily outperform both these guys.

You must know something Bentivolio's campaign doesn't, because they are worried. That is why they asked for OUR HELP in commenting under the articles about him. Will you help? I linked the thread about it near the top of this one. The AMA is even running hit pieces against him.

We need to be doing the same thing for Amash too.

[tsai3904]

In the last week, FreedomWorks has spent

$42,500 on online ads against Pestka
$28,300 on online ads supporting Amash
$50,000 on mail supporting Amash

[Pisces]

Both will eventually win, but if I had to bet on an upset, it'd definitely be Amash. I rate Bentivolio as Safe R, Amash as Lean/Likely R - mostly because Bentivolio's opponent is so weak.

If this year was 2006/2008 and the D running on MI-11 was a good candidate, I think both these seats would be gone.

It underscores how bizarre is the thesis that Ron Paul Republicans are better electoral bets and able to draw the support of liberals and centrists. Romney will easily outperform both these guys.

Amash and Bentivolio don't have Obama as their opponent. I don't think the thesis that Ron Paul Republicans are good electoral bets is bizarre at all. I think they are better than Romney types at attracting certain types of independants. Comparing the Presidential race to Congressional races is like comparing apples and oranges anyway.

[LibertyEagle]

In the last week, FreedomWorks has spent

$42,500 on online ads against Pestka
$28,300 on online ads supporting Amash
$50,000 on mail supporting Amash

That's nice, but it's not much.

Did you see the request by Ron Paul that we donate, if we can, to Amash's campaign so that he could run a badly needed TV ad?

We think things are bad now, but we're really going to hate it if these guys lose.

[tsai3904]

That's nice, but it's not much.

Did you see the request by Ron Paul that we donate, if we can, to Amash's campaign so that he could run a badly needed TV ad?

We think things are bad now, but we're really going to hate it if these guys lose.

Yea I have but the problem is getting the word out. There's no central location where people get news on things like this. The best location is Ron's facebook page. He makes a post and it gets thousands of likes and comments. We can spend all day here bumping Amash's thread and we'll be lucky to get 200 unique views.

[tsai3904]

Ron's email regarding Amash was sent from Liberty PAC. How many people are subscribed to that PAC's email? I'm guessing not much since its work was all exclusively done prior to Ron entering the race.

I don't understand why Ron and his team don't utilize his Facebook more. The people who like Ron's Facebook are mostly the new supporters who aren't too knowledgeable about which candidates are on our side.

People who are subscribed to Liberty PAC and Campaign for Liberty are mostly the people from 2008 or very early 2011 and mostly know what needs to be done or who to support but its these people who keep getting the same pleas over and over. Its the new supporters that need to be made aware of the issues and the candidates we need to support.

It's frustrating to get all these emails asking for support but not see any activity on Ron's Facebook page.

[KCIndy]

blahblahblah...

Okay, enough blabbering about it. Who wants to actually DO something? I'm in for fifty bucks for Justin. I urge anyone and everyone to match part, match all, or exceed it:


Date 10/30/2012
Amount $50.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID a93c86c7f56b4883b8e44381376dde96

Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com
Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb


Free +Rep for everyone who donates anything! :D

[DeMintConservative]

You must know something Bentivolio's campaign doesn't, because they are worried. That is why they asked for OUR HELP in commenting under the articles about him. Will you help? I linked the thread about it near the top of this one. The AMA is even running hit pieces against him.

We need to be doing the same thing for Amash too.

I will spend a few minutes doing that, but I can't find the link.

I stand for my projections though.

[DeMintConservative]

Amash and Bentivolio don't have Obama as their opponent. I don't think the thesis that Ron Paul Republicans are good electoral bets is bizarre at all. I think they are better than Romney types at attracting certain types of independants. Comparing the Presidential race to Congressional races is like comparing apples and oranges anyway.

If they had Obama as their opponent, they'd be DOA. I mean, Bentivolio is running against a far-left Muslim with such a heavy South Asian accent he's hardly intelligible as a public speaker.

The proof is in the pudding. Some lower ticket candidates over-perform the top of the ticket. Others under-perform. We'll be able to compare these guys with, say, Fred Upton on the 6th.

[LibertyEagle]

If they had Obama as their opponent, they'd be DOA. I mean, Bentivolio is running against a far-left Muslim with such a heavy South Asian accent he's hardly intelligible as a public speaker.

The proof is in the pudding. Some lower ticket candidates over-perform the top of the ticket. Others under-perform. We'll be able to compare these guys with, say, Fred Upton on the 6th.

That's interesting, but the AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION is running ads for Amash's Bentivolio's competition.

[LibertyEagle]

I will spend a few minutes doing that, but I can't find the link.

I stand for my projections though.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?393463-Comment-squad-needed-for-Bentivolio-and-Amash-to-counter-slams-under-articles-and-Facebook/page2

[DeMintConservative]

That's interesting, but the AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION is running ads for Amash's Bentivolio's competition.

Against Amash too?

Anyway, I'm not sure what's the point. In a Dem-leaning year like 2006 and 2008, they'll probably have to face millions of dollars in ads. If they're struggling in a neutral year because a few hundred thousand dollars in independent expenditures, they'll go down in the first serious challenge.

I've seen the AMA ad on MI-11 and it was pretty bland.


http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?393463-Comment-squad-needed-for-Bentivolio-and-Amash-to-counter-slams-under-articles-and-Facebook/page2

Thanks.

[Pisces]

If they had Obama as their opponent, they'd be DOA. I mean, Bentivolio is running against a far-left Muslim with such a heavy South Asian accent he's hardly intelligible as a public speaker.

The proof is in the pudding. Some lower ticket candidates over-perform the top of the ticket. Others under-perform. We'll be able to compare these guys with, say, Fred Upton on the 6th.

If they were running against Obama they would be getting a lot more backing and support from the party. I'm not blaming all of their troubles on they're being disliked by the GOP establishment, but it doesn't help. Most of the enthusiasm for Romney is because Republicans hate Obama so much and independants are angry about the state of the economy. Plus, Romney is getting obscene amounts of money and media attention that congressional candidates don't get. If Romney were running against Pestka on Amash's budget with lukewarm party support, would he be doing that great? That's a more fair comparison.

[DeMintConservative]

Measure against the relative performance of other congressional candidates.

Some will overperform Romney. Some will underperform him.

I'm betting these guys will underperform him in spite of facing average (Amash)/extremely weak (Bentivolio) opponents.

And sure, some Republicans, mostly moderate/centrist Republicans, won't vote for them. I'm sure no Ron Paul supporter in this forum will have a problem with that. What's good for the goose...

[Pisces]

Measure against the relative performance of other congressional candidates.

Some will overperform Romney. Some will underperform him.

I'm betting these guys will underperform him in spite of facing average (Amash)/extremely weak (Bentivolio) opponents.

And sure, some Republicans, mostly moderate/centrist Republicans, won't vote for them. I'm sure no Ron Paul supporter in this forum will have a problem with that. What's good for the goose...

And some that overperform are in safer districts, have been in office much longer, etc, etc. Not everyone on this forum believes that Ron Paul candidates are unbeatable. So what is your point in trying to disparage Amash and Bentivolio? Both of them support Romney now that he is the nominee by the way. There's no reason moderate/centrist Republicans shouldn't support them unless they really feel strongly about not reducing the size of government.

[DeMintConservative]

And some that overperform are in safer districts, have been in office much longer, etc, etc. Not everyone on this forum believes that Ron Paul candidates are unbeatable. So what is your point in trying to disparage Amash and Bentivolio? Both of them support Romney now that he is the nominee by the way. There's no reason moderate/centrist Republicans shouldn't support them unless they really feel strongly about not reducing the size of government.

Well, I think they should vote for Amash/Bentivolio. But just like Ron Paul supporters here who don't vote for Romney and other GOP candidates, those people will do the same. I think it's wrong, but it is what it is. Paul supporters should understand their position pretty well, considering what I read on this forum.

I'm not disparaging them. I'm assessing them as candidates. It's a pure horserace analysis, nothing to do with who they are or my wishes. As of now, they seem to be weak candidates. It's important they recognize that - I think they need to entrench themselves in the next 2 years (again, I believe both will win and comfortably - although because of the fundamentals of these districts) in order to become a bit safer.

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

[NickOdell]

I'm in for $10. All I can do right now.


Date 10/31/2012
Amount $10 (One Time)
Transaction ID aa658924f15d43b888afae41e0fa56b4
Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com

Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb

[mz10]

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

You're right, they don't have great crossover appeal. The reason is that few on the left are actually anti-war or pro-civil liberties, they just pretended to be for 8 years because they were anti-Bush.

[mz10]

Also, I see 2014 being a Republican wave election if Obama wins, so I don't see a problem for Amash being re-elected (of course Bentivolio will likely face a primary challenge). The more years they spend in office the deeper their war chests get.

[Pisces]

Well, I think they should vote for Amash/Bentivolio. But just like Ron Paul supporters here who don't vote for Romney and other GOP candidates, those people will do the same. I think it's wrong, but it is what it is. Paul supporters should understand their position pretty well, considering what I read on this forum.

I'm not disparaging them. I'm assessing them as candidates. It's a pure horserace analysis, nothing to do with who they are or my wishes. As of now, they seem to be weak candidates. It's important they recognize that - I think they need to entrench themselves in the next 2 years (again, I believe both will win and comfortably - although because of the fundamentals of these districts) in order to become a bit safer.

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

Some Ron Paul ideas have more cross-over appeal than others. It depends on many factors, though, and not just the candidate. I don't see Amash as a particularly weak candidate. His being seen as the heir to Ron Paul and his refusal to support crony capitalism have just caused him to not get the same kind of financial support that a Fred Upton type gets. On a personal level, he's young, handsome and intelligent and that usually appeals to low-info voters. I think he needs to find a way to mend fences with the pro-life groups, though.

I need to stop blabbing here and put my money where my mouth is though. Unfortunately, I'm not sure that I can afford to donate right now.

[KCIndy]

Also, I see 2014 being a Republican wave election if Obama wins, so I don't see a problem for Amash being re-elected (of course Bentivolio will likely face a primary challenge). The more years they spend in office the deeper their war chests get.

I wish I could share your confidence.

[mad cow]

Thank you,

Justin Amash for Congress

Receipt
Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 10/31/2012
Amount $25.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID 8e4588c35529459a949289d670741f61

Don't understand the date.

[tsai3904]

Date 10/30/2012
Amount $50.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID a93c86c7f56b4883b8e44381376dde96

Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com
Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb


Date 10/31/2012
Amount $10 (One Time)
Transaction ID aa658924f15d43b888afae41e0fa56b4
Organization Justin Amash for Congress
Org. Website http://www.amashforcongress.com

Payment Page TV Ad Money Bomb


Justin Amash for Congress

Receipt
Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 10/31/2012
Amount $25.00 (One Time)
Transaction ID 8e4588c35529459a949289d670741f61

+rep

[EBounding]

I can do $100. Should I split it between Amash and Bentivolio?

I just realized I've donated 3 times more to Bentivolio than to Amash this year. As horrible as it would be for Kerry to lose against a socialist, losing a seasoned Liberty Rep like Amash would be much worse. I think Bentivolio, ironically, has more party support anyway since he's in the strongest Republican district. It sounds like the party has left Amash to fend for himself.


Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 10/31/2012
Amount $100.00 (One Time)

[supermario21]

I wish I could share your confidence.

It will be, at least in the Senate. Republicans can conceivably get close to 60. Only problem is I predict the establishment will start handpicking candidates to run in some of the states, because of the debacles of 2010 and potentially this year. It's why I have argued that we should be supporting guys like Mourdock, Mandel, Akin, etc that Rand has been helping out. There will not be many tea-party/small government nominees in 2014 if the party gets involved in the primary. Remember, we'd likely be looking at a Senate w/o Harry Reid had Sharron Angle not won the nomination, and RINO Mike Castle would be in instead of Coons. Losers like McCaskill and Donnelly could also get elected in seats that Republicans should have no business losing. That's why I think a Romney win isn't going to be devastating. Some of you think we need a Romney loss to force an intra-party war. However, I feel that the Senate races will spark that anyways. Could serve as ammo leading to a Rand 16 primary challenge if he can pit the Tea Party vs the establishment in the 2014 primaries.

[mz10]

Only problem is I predict the establishment will start handpicking candidates to run in some of the states, because of the debacles of 2010 and potentially this year.

Trey Grayson, Charlie Crist, and David Dewhurst were all handpicked candidates. How did that work out? The party apparatus itself never gets involved in primaries, which is not to say they don't have their preferences, but there's only so much they can do. Organizations like FreedomWorks and Club for Growth can easily make up the cash differential between establishment and insurgent candidates. I think if everything pans out this November, and we play our cards right over the next few years, 2014 can be a big year for us.

[NickOdell]

bump for the night crew

[July]

More importantly, it's a lesson to those who believe Ron Paul ideas have great cross-over appeal and whatnot. It's not true.

There is cross over appeal. But, I think the mistake is in thinking that it is with the centrists/moderates. It isn't really. The kind of bipartisan appeal that existed with Ron Paul was more of a "reverse" centrism, IMO...where issues like economic freedom and civil liberties meet, etc. The centrism that is popular now is the opposite, where economic and civil intervention meet, bipartisan consensus on the welfare/warfare state, etc.

[Tinnuhana]

Just donated (I think: didn't check AOL for confirmation yet).

[DeMintConservative]

There is cross over appeal. But, I think the mistake is in thinking that it is with the centrists/moderates. It isn't really. The kind of bipartisan appeal that existed with Ron Paul was more of a "reverse" centrism, IMO...where issues like economic freedom and civil liberties meet, etc. The centrism that is popular now is the opposite, where economic and civil intervention meet, bipartisan consensus on the welfare/warfare state, etc.

That bipartisanship appeal is not electorally sound. It doesn't translate. Those people in the far-left who nominally "support" Ron Paul, would never vote for him - or for Paulite candidates like Amash & Bentivolio - in a general election. Plus, their numbers are meaningless.


You're right, they don't have great crossover appeal. The reason is that few on the left are actually anti-war or pro-civil liberties, they just pretended to be for 8 years because they were anti-Bush.

Yeah, for most of them is just a tactical agreement, but I think a few are genuinely anti-war and with a similar position on law&order issues.

The problem is that those agreements are just superficial (very different philosophical undergrounds). They aren't sustainable and they aren't deep enough to translate into voting support. Plus, they're limited to a couple of issues - so they only work for single issue voters or close to it. Plus, many on the left support Ron Paul because a) he's "anti-system" b) the hard money/fractional reserve banking stance sounds as if he's again bankers (aka enemies of the class) c) he's for drug legalization. Again, a combination of a superficial understanding of his positions and a willingness to ignore anything else. But when it comes to actually voting in a general election, even that 10% of the left will side with any mainstream liberal democrat or a green party candidate - a lot more in common.

[SchleckBros]

Receipt
Please note that the charge will appear on your credit card
or bank account statement as "RALLY/PIRYX"
RECEIPT DETAILS
Date 11/1/2012
Amount $20 (One Time)

:D

[July]

That bipartisanship appeal is not electorally sound. It doesn't translate. Those people in the far-left who nominally "support" Ron Paul, would never vote for him - or for Paulite candidates like Amash & Bentivolio - in a general election. Plus, their numbers are meaningless.

Not yet. Votes reflect the ideologies and characters of the people who vote. Votes follow the trends and shifts in society, not the other way around. That's why Ron spent more time pitching his ideas at universities, though the older demographic is much more likely to vote. There are so few Ron Paul or Amash style candidates, a reliable voting base will take some time to cultivate and grow. Our numbers are still small and we do need coalitions.

As for cross over with the left, well, coalitions with the left has been tried before. But the coalition with conservatives has to date been more successful, in my opinion, which is why I support working in the GOP and expanding coalitions there. I think if the liberty segment of the Republican party grows, some libertarian leaning individuals within the Democratic party could make the transition and
become Republicans...but they will not do so now, especially while the party is still so dominated by aggressive war rhetoric, etc.

[mz10]

Not yet. Votes reflect the ideologies and characters of the people who vote. Votes follow the trends and shifts in society, not the other way around. That's why Ron spent more time pitching his ideas at universities, though the older demographic is much more likely to vote. There are so few Ron Paul or Amash style candidates, a reliable voting base will take some time to cultivate and grow. Our numbers are still small and we do need coalitions.

As for cross over with the left, well, coalitions with the left has been tried before. But the coalition with conservatives has to date been more successful, in my opinion, which is why I support working in the GOP and expanding coalitions there. I think if the liberty segment of the Republican party grows, some libertarian leaning individuals within the Democratic party could make the transition and
become Republicans...but they will not do so now, especially while the party is still so dominated by aggressive war rhetoric, etc.

I think the libertarian Democrat is much more common in the South. It's certainly possible that if Rand were to win the nomination in 2016 against, say, Andrew Cuomo, southern/midwestern Democrats may find more in common with him and cross over. It would probably help a lot in states like North Carolina and Florida.

[trey4sports]

I think the libertarian Democrat is much more common in the South. It's certainly possible that if Rand were to win the nomination in 2016 against, say, Andrew Cuomo, southern/midwestern Democrats may find more in common with him and cross over. It would probably help a lot in states like North Carolina and Florida.

I couldn't see southern MO voting for Andrew Cuomo. LOL

[DeMintConservative]

White Southern Democrats already vote for the Republican ticket in the presidential race by huge margins.

Southern Democrats these days are blacks and hardcore urban liberals. None of those groups will ever vote for Rand Paul.

[mz10]

White Southern Democrats already vote for the Republican ticket in the presidential race by huge margins.

Southern Democrats these days are blacks and hardcore urban liberals. None of those groups will ever vote for Rand Paul.

North Carolina is 21.5% black, so in order for it to be a swing state there have to be a number of whites voting Democrat. Those are the people I'm talking about, many are fiscally conservative and socially liberal.