Jwaksman
11-20-2007, 10:08 AM
As far as I know, the media has consistently downplayed Dr. Paul's chances because they think that his support will "flake" like Dean's did because it is disproportionately young people. Yet in this article from a well-respected political analyst, it is offhandedly mentioned that Dr. Paul could have better than expected turnout in Iowa due to his supporters being so devoted, and that this turnout could push him ahead of Mccain. Personally, I expect us to move up in the polls so that a better-than-expected turnout gets us 4th or 3rd - not 5th. But it's still nice to see someone suggest that we will have good turnout for once:
http://politicalinsider.com/2007/11/ins_and_outs_in_iowa.html
"The most recent Rasmussen Poll has McCain at 6% in Iowa, followed by Reps. Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo at 4% each. Paul and Tancredo supporters may be comparatively small in number, but they are passionate and are likely to turn out on caucus night -- especially with Paul flush with cash and Tancredo beginning an Iowa ad campaign. Could onetime GOP frontrunner McCain actually finish seventh in Iowa?"
http://politicalinsider.com/2007/11/ins_and_outs_in_iowa.html
"The most recent Rasmussen Poll has McCain at 6% in Iowa, followed by Reps. Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo at 4% each. Paul and Tancredo supporters may be comparatively small in number, but they are passionate and are likely to turn out on caucus night -- especially with Paul flush with cash and Tancredo beginning an Iowa ad campaign. Could onetime GOP frontrunner McCain actually finish seventh in Iowa?"