Lucille
10-25-2012, 04:28 PM
Maybe progs will finally stop trying to kill the electoral college now.
Romney Is (Just Barely) Leading the National Polls, But Obama Is Still the Favorite to Win
http://reason.com/blog/2012/10/25/romney-is-just-barely-leading-the-nation
Mitt Romney has a had a great month. On September 30th, the RealClearPolitics presidential polling average showed him losing to President Obama by 4 points. Now it shows him ahead. At just 0.7 points, it’s not a big lead. But he’s led the president in RCP’s average for the last two weeks. And his rise is confirmed by other polling analyses: Pollster.com’s aggregate poll number shows a similar rise over the past several weeks, and also currently has him in the lead, albeit by just a single tenth of a point.
Yet despite the tight race, Obama remains the slight favorite to win on election day. That’s because even though Romney seems to be holding a very small lead in the national polls, Obama has a solid Electoral College advantage. This has obvious implications for the race. It’s also going to shape the way the next president governs.
[...]
Polling in battleground states, as well as various election-prediction models, all suggest that President Obama will have a somewhat easier path to Electoral College victory than Mitt Romney. Most analyses suggest that there is a very strong chance that the election will hinge on Ohio. If Mitt Romney loses Ohio, he’ll have to come very close to sweeping the table in the rest of the swing states. And right now, most polls show that Obama has a narrow but consistent lead in the Buckeye state. Of the three Ohio presidential polls published yesterday, Obama led in two (Time and SurveyUSA) and was tied with Romney in one (Rasmussen).
The closeness of the race suggests some intriguing possibilities. It’s possible, for example, that we’ll end up with an Electoral College tie. It’s also possible that, as in 2000, the candidate who wins the popular vote will not win the Electoral College vote. Both of these would inevitably complicate the next administration's ability to pursue its own agenda.
Why? Both presidents will do whatever the hell they want. Congress has already abdicated its most important powers to the executive branch.
"...a powerfully centralized government in which the executive will hold in effect all the powers with Congress reduced to the role of a debating society."
--John T. Flynn (http://wendymcelroy.com/news.php?extend.4833)
Romney Is (Just Barely) Leading the National Polls, But Obama Is Still the Favorite to Win
http://reason.com/blog/2012/10/25/romney-is-just-barely-leading-the-nation
Mitt Romney has a had a great month. On September 30th, the RealClearPolitics presidential polling average showed him losing to President Obama by 4 points. Now it shows him ahead. At just 0.7 points, it’s not a big lead. But he’s led the president in RCP’s average for the last two weeks. And his rise is confirmed by other polling analyses: Pollster.com’s aggregate poll number shows a similar rise over the past several weeks, and also currently has him in the lead, albeit by just a single tenth of a point.
Yet despite the tight race, Obama remains the slight favorite to win on election day. That’s because even though Romney seems to be holding a very small lead in the national polls, Obama has a solid Electoral College advantage. This has obvious implications for the race. It’s also going to shape the way the next president governs.
[...]
Polling in battleground states, as well as various election-prediction models, all suggest that President Obama will have a somewhat easier path to Electoral College victory than Mitt Romney. Most analyses suggest that there is a very strong chance that the election will hinge on Ohio. If Mitt Romney loses Ohio, he’ll have to come very close to sweeping the table in the rest of the swing states. And right now, most polls show that Obama has a narrow but consistent lead in the Buckeye state. Of the three Ohio presidential polls published yesterday, Obama led in two (Time and SurveyUSA) and was tied with Romney in one (Rasmussen).
The closeness of the race suggests some intriguing possibilities. It’s possible, for example, that we’ll end up with an Electoral College tie. It’s also possible that, as in 2000, the candidate who wins the popular vote will not win the Electoral College vote. Both of these would inevitably complicate the next administration's ability to pursue its own agenda.
Why? Both presidents will do whatever the hell they want. Congress has already abdicated its most important powers to the executive branch.
"...a powerfully centralized government in which the executive will hold in effect all the powers with Congress reduced to the role of a debating society."
--John T. Flynn (http://wendymcelroy.com/news.php?extend.4833)