Intrade tightens. What's Romney's math?

[Agorism]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

now 57-43

How does his math work. He has 206 basically

+ Florida
+ Virginia
+ Colorado
+ Ohio

= 270

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Is that how he wins?

[DeMintConservative]

You're doing something wrong. That adds to 275 (assuming you're already factoring NC + IN + McCain states + NE 2nd).

Rommey needs to win FL and VA. Florida is pretty much in the bag right now (Obama lead in 1 out of the last 10 polls and only by 1%), Virginia should be (and if he doesn't win VA there's no way he wins anyway).

So, with those two he's at 248.

He only needs:

1 - Ohio and another state (CO, NH, whatever). This looks like the likeliest path.
2 - A combination of smaller states. WI+CO+IA. Or WI+CO+NH. Or IA+CO+NV.

Of course, he can always make a late play in PA if polls keep going his way.

Still, I think at this point everything is about Ohio. Whoever wins OH will win the election.

[Agorism]

ah so intrade is a reflection of ohio state polling.

Makes more sense

[DeMintConservative]

Ohio tightening was always inevitable (assuming national polls would remain close). Socially conservative blue collar republicans coming home - it'd always be a constituency Romney would struggle to connect with but it was to be expected they'd eventually opt for the lesser evil.

Ohio has always voted more Republican than the nation since Nixon. McCain overperformed his national result by 2 points there. It'd be weird if they'd suddenly became a D+4 state as the state polls were suggesting. It was like Ohio had suddenly turned into Oregon or something. Obama has some serious in-built advantages there - the state economy doing well, his permanent campaign there for 4 years, the early advantage in spending, the auto bailout argument, the strong minority vote and the early voting GOTV operation - but they aren't that strong.

So this movement was predictable (and we had hard date from early voting suggesting the result would be closer than pollsters were saying) but Intrade isn't a particularly smart market, rather a mere lagging indicator of polling with little predictive power.

[Aratus]

on INTRADE it is possible to lay a big bet bet on the PARTY that will control
[[[drumrolls]]](A.) THE WHITE HOUSE and (B.) THE SENATE and (C.) THE HOUSE

the combos are DEM-DEM-DEM, DEM-REP-DEM, DEM-REP-REP, DEM-DEM-REP,
OTHER COMBO, REP-REP-REP, REP-REP-DEM, REP-DEM-DEM and REP-DEM-REP

my favorite combo is REP-DEM-REP which assumes the House + Senate do not change.

[Agorism]

Intrade still tightening today.

Wonder if it will be 50-50 soon.

Scary election

[Anti Federalist]

Based on state leads, RCP is showing 281 - O 257 - R.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.h tml

"No Toss Ups Map"

[DeMintConservative]

Scary to whom?

The demeanor of both candidates in yesterday's debates tells you all you need to know where this campaign is going. It's going to be super-close, Obama is slightly ahead as of now but Mitt has still some momentum. Impossible to say if it's enough to carry him to victory.

People who predicted Obama would win running away - like many here - should be a bit embarrassed by their prediction skills, but scared? I hope nobody bet on that scenery.

[Anti Federalist]

Scary to whom?

The demeanor of both candidates in yesterday's debates tells you all you need to know where this campaign is going. It's going to be super-close, Obama is slightly ahead as of now but Mitt has still some momentum. Impossible to say if it's enough to carry him to victory.

People who predicted Obama would win running away - like many here - should be a bit embarrassed by their prediction skills, but scared? I hope nobody bet on that scenery.

I'm scared shitless...

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?393230-Brothers-and-sisters-in-liberty-I-have-a-request.-Please-help-ol-AF-and-his-family.

[Anti Federalist]

Huff Po is at 253 to 191 Advantage - O Bomb ya.

Their map has toss up states.

If you add the states where O bomb ya is leading to that 253 you get 303.

[LibertyEagle]

Scared? Hell yes, I'm scared. But, because one of them is most assuredly going to win.

[DeMintConservative]

Huff Po is at 253 to 191 Advantage - O Bomb ya.

Their map has toss up states.

If you add the states where O bomb ya is leading to that 253 you get 303.

I don't like HuffPo methodology. Their averages track dozen of polls - does a poll from 1 month ago still has any value? - and they include internet pollsters and internals.

Still, it's the same. Obama never leads by more than 2 points in those toss-up states. That's a statistical tie. In the end, whoever wins Ohio will be the next President. And Obama's 5 points lead from just a week ago has been drastically cut recently. Hence the Intrade movement.

[Anti Federalist]

I don't like HuffPo methodology. Their averages track dozen of polls - does a poll from 1 month ago still has any value? - and they include internet pollsters and internals.

Still, it's the same. Obama never leads by more than 2 points in those toss-up states. That's a statistical tie. In the end, whoever wins Ohio will be the next President. And Obama's 5 points lead from just a week ago has been drastically cut recently. Hence the Intrade movement.

Assuming for moment that we have anything approaching an honest election, I happen to agree, Ohio is the key.

O bomb ya could lose every other "toss up" state and still win, if he takes Ohio and keeps all his "solid" states.

FWIW, on this day 4 years ago, according to RCP, Obama's lead was 2.5.

It's 1.9 today with RMoney actually polling lower by .1 than McCain was.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ohio_election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago _today.html

[AuH20]

What are the methodology for these polls? I hope they aren't utilizing 2008 baselines because if that's the case, Romney will get 300+ electoral votes. The energy simply isn't there for Obama. He's lost close to 15% among college students as opposed to 2008.

[Anti Federalist]

What are the methodology for these polls? I hope they aren't utilizing 2008 baselines because if that's the case, Romney will get 300+ electoral votes. The energy simply isn't there for Obama. He's lost close to 15% among college students as opposed to 2008.

RCP Average 10/12 - 10/21 -- -- 47.6 45.7 Obama +1.9
Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
Rasmussen Reports 10/17 - 10/17 750 LV 4.0 49 48 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/12 - 10/15 613 LV 4.0 45 42 Obama +3


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

[DeMintConservative]

If Obama loses Ohio (and VA), he'd then need to sweep all the other toss-up states: CO, NH, IA, WI, NV. I don't think that happens. I suspect that if Romney wins Ohio, he'd have already won Colorado and New Hampshire. At least the former.

Obama is "ahead" now (he really isn't, it's well within the MoE) because of that big CBS/Quinn. outlier with the D+9 sample. Partisan polls are also showing a tie in the last few days. I'm confident that Obama would be favored to win if the election was today but I'd give him a 55%O-45%R advantage at most to win by less than 1%. Absentee and early voting numbers just reinforce the idea that the race is incredibly close. Actually unless something changes in the next 2 weeks, I'd be surprised if the winner is announced in the election night. I suspect it'll take a few days and multiple recounts in several states. As of now, it's that close.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Huff Po is at 253 to 191 Advantage - O Bomb ya.

Their map has toss up states.

If you add the states where O bomb ya is leading to that 253 you get 303.

Huffington Post is in their own little world.

[torchbearer]

Scared? Hell yes, I'm scared. But, because one of them is most assuredly going to win.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to LibertyEagle again.

[torchbearer]

Based on state leads, RCP is showing 281 - O 257 - R.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.h tml

"No Toss Ups Map"

this would be the optimum outcome or closer.
Add up NV,IA,MN,ME as ron paul states not going for romney.

[Anti Federalist]

Obama Still Ahead on Intrade

Posted by Lew Rockwell on October 23, 2012 08:36 AM

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/123950.html

57% against 43% for Romney.

UPDATE from Somitr Mathur:

Did you notice that after Obama painted himself as more of a warmonger last night, his chances of winning dropped from 60%+ to around 57% on intrade, while Romney the "all of the sudden sort of peacenik" went up to 43%? This really shows that the (perceived) peace candidate usually wins.

[Anti Federalist]

I suspect it'll take a few days and multiple recounts in several states. As of now, it's that close.

And if the GOP had not treated us like pieces of shit, let alone nominating the right man, this thing would be in the bag right now.

Now, pfffft...even if I didn't have a personal stake in this:

No One But Paul

[DeMintConservative]

And if the GOP had not treated us like pieces of shit, let alone nominating the right man, this thing would be in the bag right now.

Now, pfffft...even if I didn't have a personal stake in this:

No One But Paul

Yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree on that. Not only I think the number of Ron Paul hard supporters is negligible, I believe the vast majority of them would never vote for Romney (or any other GOP candidate) regardless of the "treatment". I suspect anyone who reads this forum would arrive to that conclusion.

----

Anyway, Obama is now at 53.6% to win the election. O win in Ohio is at 49%. Actually, the individual state markets are now predicting a Romney win - he's ahead in FL, VA, NC, OH and CO. This must be some attempt to manipulate the market. Intrade is so small that with a few thousand dollars this is doable. Not sure what's the point though, nobody cares. Or else it's someone who's buying Trump's bullshit.

[itshappening]

the war monger in chief is now at 53.8% and OH now 50/50 with CO 58 for Republican nominee

if Romney wins those states he will likely pull this off. Getting worried

[Anti Federalist]

Huff Po just moved Iowa into "Leans Obama" status.

259 to 206 with everything hinging on Ohio.

RCP still has the "No Toss Ups" at 281 to 257 with Romney taking all the "toss up" states except Ohio.

[James Madison]

Huff Po just moved Iowa into "Leans Obama" status.

259 to 206 with everything hinging on Ohio.

RCP still has the "No Toss Ups" at 281 to 257 with Romney taking all the "toss up" states except Ohio.

Iowa is an odd state. Tons of evangelicals, but often votes Democrat. Not sure why?

[Anti Federalist]

Yeah, we'll have to agree to disagree on that. Not only I think the number of Ron Paul hard supporters is negligible, I believe the vast majority of them would never vote for Romney (or any other GOP candidate) regardless of the "treatment". I suspect anyone who reads this forum would arrive to that conclusion.

Hmmm, well, maybe yes to the second part.

But I say "we" wield at least a percentage point or two.

And that will be what the margin is on this one.

[Anti Federalist]

Iowa is an odd state. Tons of evangelicals, but often votes Democrat. Not sure why?

Lutheran Swedes.

Think: Garrison Keillor.

[itshappening]

Huff Po just moved Iowa into "Leans Obama" status.

259 to 206 with everything hinging on Ohio.

RCP still has the "No Toss Ups" at 281 to 257 with Romney taking all the "toss up" states except Ohio.

So if Romney takes OH from Obama in the No Toss Ups he is President

And if Obama holds OH then Romney would need to take NH, IA and NV

WI could also come into play with Ryan on the ticket

[mad cow]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_ map.html

If you start with the RCP 201-0,206-R numbers and deal just with the 10 toss ups,give Obama PA,OH,MI,IA,NV,NH(3).
Then give Romney FLA,VA,CO,WI,NH(1),ME(1),you end up 269-269,my favorite outcome.

This is not at all an unreasonable projection,given that Ryan is from WI and Romney is tied or leading in the other States he takes all EV's in.

OH the wailing and gnashing of teeth!

Edit,My bad,NH is not proportional,NE is however.

So Obama would have to pick up one EV in NE instead.Doable?One can dream.